Tag: Russia

Justified and Necessary

The more you look into the details of the history of the current Russo-Ukrainian conflict, the more it becomes clear that a) this conflict has very little to do with the Ukrainian people per se, b) NATO, the US government, and the judeochristians who influence the latter are the parties responsible for the bloodshed, and c) Russia’s military intervention is not only justified and necessary, but long overdue.

Well if you’re like me you’ve been taken aback by the scale and comprehensiveness of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It’s the boy who cried wolf all over again I suppose. However, a deeper analysis makes Putin’s move more understandable. I hadn’t been aware that Ukraine has become a de facto if not de jure NATO member, an absolute red line for Russia as Putin had made clear on numerous occasions. As he has pointed out the Ukrainian military control system has already been integrated into NATO and a network of airfields upgraded with US help which enables the rapid transportation of very large numbers of troops. Ukraine’s airspace is open to flights by US strategic and reconnaissance aircraft and drones that conduct surveillance over Russian territory. He added that the US-built Maritime Operations Centre in Ochakov makes it possible to support activity by NATO warships, including the use of precision weapons, against the Russian Black Sea Fleet and its supporting infrastructure.

Since the ZOG coup in 2014 that toppled Ukraine’s elected government and installed a largely Jewish regime in its place Russia has fully supported the Minsk agreement which provides the two eastern republics with political autonomy. But the Ukrainian regime, egged on by its American ZOG puppeteers, has ignored the agreement. In the interim the country has become ZATOised, subjecting the Donbass region to endless blockades, rocket attacks and shelling. As recorded by the OECD on the day before Russia invaded Kiev fired over 1,500 shells on villages in Donetsk and Luganask… The penny – kopek – has finally dropped that any form of partnership with the ZATO countries is futile.

In support of the Savant’s narrative, there is this piece chronicling the persistent Ukrainian artillery bombardment of civilians in the Donbass. Note that it’s dated March 3, 2021.

While much of the world is focused on Covid-related issues, Ukraine’s seven-year war on the people of Donbass continues. In recent weeks, Kiev’s shelling of civilians has intensified, met by the predictable Western media silence.

Ostensibly, following the Minsk agreements, there was a ceasefire. In reality, Donbass residents in villages bordering peace lines are incessantly subject to Ukrainian shelling. Ukraine uses heavy weapons in violation of the agreement, including 82mm and 120mm mortar shells, routinely shelling at night when Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) observers are not patrolling the area.

But Ukrainian forces also shell during the day, and have done so a lot more of late, including allegedly with phosphorus, and shelling further behind the front lines.

Most people could be forgiven for not being aware of events in Ukraine’s breakaway Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk (DPR/LPR) in the Donbass region, with corporate media either not touching the matter or doing so with glasses tinted heavily by the Ukrainian government. There are in fact journalists and news sites that regularly give updates, but they aren’t as widely known as they should be.

From my own September 2019 reporting from frontline villages of the DPR, I maintain contact with reporters and residents who update on the situation there.

One of these was the mayor of Gorlovka, a city northeast of Donetsk, who on his Telegram channel on February 19 detailed the nearby villages of Zaitsevo and Mine 6/7 being under heavy weapons fire (by Ukraine). On February 20, he wrote of Mine 6/7 and another village being heavily shelled since early morning, with locals saying more than one hundred hits occurred.

The same day, Alexey Karpushev, a resident of the northern city of Gorlovka, wrote, “From about five in the morning until now, there is heavy shelling of the city from the Air Force artillery.”

According to Karpushev – who is a former first secretary of Gorlovka’s committee of the Communist Party of Ukraine – in recent weeks, the number of attacks from the Ukrainian army “increased significantly.” He mentioned that a 22 year old civilian was recently seriously injured in the attacks.

I asked why the increased shelling now.

“Ukraine’s aggression intensified just when Biden came to power in the United States.” It is quite likely that President Volodymyr Zelensky feels more confident with the return of the warmongers to the White House.

Ukraine Intensifies Shelling of Donbass as Western Media are Silent, 3 March 2021

There is absolutely no question whatsoever that the Russian military operation enacted to remove the ZATO puppet regime from power in Ukraine is 100 percent justified, both morally and under international law. Nor is there any serious question that the operation is going to be successful, as a significant part of the Ukrainian regular forces are already trapped in a WWII-style grand encirclement.

UKRAINE MAP DAY 6 – The Saker

DISCUSS ON SG

Ukraine Invasion: A Comparative Analysis

This is an analysis of Russian invasion of Ukraine compared to historical invasions known for their speed and success. The DuPuy Institute’s data was utilized for some parts of this analysis. Posted with the permission of the anonymous author. – VD


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Russia’s rate of conquest is extraordinary: 1.43 times faster than Israel in 1967, 1.85 times faster than US in Iraq in 2003, and 10 times faster than US in Kuwait in 1991.
Russia has plausibly lost up to 15% of its tank force but the alleged death toll of 5,000+ is grossly exaggerated. Russian deaths are in the range of 234 to 1100 dead at most. Ukraine has plausibly lost 36% of its tank force.
If Russia wants to conquer all of Ukraine, victory will be complete by the end of March, after around 41 days of fighting.


SIX DAY WAR (1967)
Israel conquered the Golan Heights (690 square miles), the West Bank (2173 square miles) and Sinai (23,000 square miles), for a total of 25,863 square miles.
Israel deployed 264,000 troops vs. 100,000 Egyptians; 75,000 Syrians; and 55,000 Jordanians. Israel started with 800 tanks and 300 combat aircraft. The Arabs started with 2,054 tanks and 957 combat aircraft.
It took 6 days for Israel to conquer the theater, for a rate of conquest of 4280 square miles per day or .016 square miles per soldier per day.
The DuPuy Institute rates the Combat Effectiveness Values (CEV) of these soldiers as Israeli 3.5, Jordan 2.27, Egyptian 2, and Syrian 1.33. So the overall force ratio was (264,000 x 3.5) vs. (200,000 + 99,750 + 124,850), or 924 vs 424, or 2.2 to 1.
In conquering the Golan Heights, West Bank, and Sinai, Israel lost 983 soldiers (0.3%), 400 tanks (50%) and 46 aircraft (15%). The Arabs lost 17,500 soldiers (7.6%), 950 tanks (46%), and 452 aircraft (47%). There were very few civilian casualties.
Note that the Israelis suffered per-capita armored vehicle losses that were higher than the Arabs. This is because fast-moving tank attacks incur more losses, many of which are mobility kills.


GULF WAR (1991)
The US conquered Kuwait, a total of 6,880 square miles.
US deployed 700,000 troops vs Iraq’s 650,000 troops. US started with 2,300 tanks. Iraq started with 4280 tanks.
It took 4.25 days to conquer Kuwait, for a rate of conquest of 1618 square miles per day, or .0023 square miles per soldier per day.
The DuPuy Institute rates the US CEV as somewhere between 4 and 6 to Iraq’s CEV of 1. I assume a mid-range CEV of 5. The force ratio was therefore 3,500,000 to 650,000 or 5.38 to 1.
In conquering Kuwait, the US lost 292 soldiers (.04%). It lost 31 tanks (1.3%). Iraq lost 50,000 soldiers (7.7%) and 3700 tanks (86%). There were approximately 5,000 civilian casualties.
Here we see that, despite having a force ratio twice as good as Israel’s in 67, the US only conquered Kuwait at a speed of about 1/7th the speed that the Israeli conquered its territories. But US only suffered per-capita losses of 1/10th the men and 1/35th the tanks. The Iraqis, meanwhile, suffered similar levels of total deaths (7.7%) as the Arab League in ’67 (7.6%).
Desert Storm is often perceived as a blitzkrieg or maneuver war but it was actually a methodical battle of annihilation in which carefully advancing shock armies followed on air strikes to destroy everything in their path.


INVASION OF IRAQ (2003)
US conquered Iraq, a total of 169,285 square miles.
US deployed 310,000 troops vs Iraq’s 538,000 troops.
It took 41 days to conquer Iraq, for a rate of conquest of 4,128 square miles per day, or .013 square miles per soldier per day.
The DuPuy Institute has not offered a CEV rating for the 2003 war. I assume a CEV of 6. The force ratio was therefore 1,860,000 to 538,000 or 3.46 to 1.
The US lost 196 soldiers (.06%). Iraq lost 30,000 killed (5.6%). Data on armored vehicle losses isn’t available but we know they were very high for Iraq. There were approximately 7,300 civilian casualties.
Here we see that the force ratio was 57% better than the force ratio in the Six Day War, but only 64% as good as the force ratio in Desert Storm. The rate of conquest was almost as fast as that in the Six Day War, and much faster than that of the Gulf War. The US losses were 50% higher per-capita than the Gulf War. The Iraqi casualties were lower (5.6%).
The 2003 invasion of Iraq, with its thunder runs, seems to have been more like a maneuver war with fast movement and somewhat higher casualties.


SUMMARY OF HISTORICAL BENCHMARKS
1967, winner: 0.3% deaths, 50% tank losses – tank losses 167x deaths; 0.016 square miles per soldier-day
1967, loser: 7.7% deaths, 46% tank losses – tank losses 6x deaths
1991, winner: 0.04% deaths, 1.3% tank losses – tank losses 33x deaths; .0023 square miles per soldier-day
1991, loser: 7.6% death, 86% tank losses – tank losses 11x deaths
2003, winner: .06% deaths; .013 square miles per soldier-day
2003, loser: 5.6% deaths


INVASION OF UKRAINE (2022)
Russia invaded Ukraine, which is 233,062 square miles.
Russia has allegedly deployed 234,000 troops vs Ukraine’s 125,000 ground troops. Russia allegedly has 1,200 tanks amassed. According to Global Security, Ukraine has 620 T-64, 100 T-64BM Bulat, 133 T-72s and 5 T-84 Oplots, for a total of 858 tanks. The T-64s and T-72s are vintage Soviet equipment, so only 105 tanks are modern. The Russian tank makeup is unknown.
What is the force ratio? Sadly the DuPuy Institute does not give us CEV for Ukraine and Russia. If we assume they are equal, the force ratio is 1.872. If we assume the Russians are better than the Ukrainians to the same ratio that Israelis were better than Jordanians, then the force ratio is 2.88. Based on the rate of advance (discussed below), the figure of 2.88 to 1 seems right.
By my estimates (plotting areas of advance on Google Earth), the Russians have conquered 33,465 square miles of terrain in 6 days. That represents .024 square miles per soldier day. That is 1.43 times faster than the Israel advance during the Six Day War, 10x times faster than the US advance during the Gulf War, and 1.85 times faster than the US advance in 2003.
So any suggestion that the Russians are moving slow is revealed as absolute nonsense.
What are the casualties? Ukraine claims to have killed 3,500 soldiers (1.4%). Losing that many men in just a few days would mean the Russians are on track to defeat (7.7% deaths being enough for Arabs to lose in 67 and 91). It seems to me to be a very carefully selected number – low enough to seem plausible, high enough to hint at defeat. But the number is certainly wrong. The US Army, in the first 25 days of Operation Overlord, lost 2,811 killed. It is implausible to believe that Russia has lost forces at 625% of the rate of the losses we incurred storming Omaha Beach and fighting through the bocage. With the entire world watching via satellite and mobile phone, it would be impossible for Russia to disguise losses like that.
Ukraine claims have destroyed 191 tanks (15.9%). That number of losses is plausible for an aggressive tank attack against a near-peer. The Israelis, after all, suffered higher tank losses in 1967, and the Russians are advancing 43% faster. If we look to history, this would suggest Russian loss of life would be somewhere around 0.1% to 0.5%, or 234 to 1170 dead.
Russia has said very little about kills, but it claims to have destroyed 314 tanks. That would be 36.5% of Ukraine’s tank force. That is a very plausible figure. Remember that Israeli inflicted 46% tank losses in 1967 by the end of the war. Here, the war is still ongoing. Ukraine’s death toll is then somewhere around 6% of its troops, or 7,500 soldiers, putting it very close to the point at which the Arabs routed.
If the above analysis is correct, Russia will have captured all of Ukraine in 41 days. The war will be over around the end of March.

I further note that the 5,300 Russian soldiers reported killed in four days of combat by the Ukrainian defense ministry is not even remotely credible when one considers that 5,732 Russian soldiers were reported killed or missing in 625 days of combat in the Chechen defeat of Russia during the First Chechen War. – VD

DISCUSS ON SG

A Conclave of Cardinals

The editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs and chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy spells out exactly what I have been saying about the Russian operation in Ukraine being the first step in a conscious and purposeful challenge to the Promethean New World Order that ascended after World War II and has dominated the world for 30 years since the end of the Cold War

Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine has spelled the end of an epoch in the state of global affairs after President Vladimir Putin launched the action last week. Its impact will be felt for years to come, but Moscow has positioned itself to “become an agent of cardinal change for the whole world.”

The Russian Armed Forces’ operation in Ukraine marks the end of an era. It began with the fall of the Soviet Union and its dissolution in 1991, when a fairly stable bipolar structure was overturned by what eventually came to be known as the ‘Liberal World Order’. This paved the way for the US and its allies to play a dominant role in international politics centered around universalist ideology.

The crisis manifested itself long ago, although there was no significant resistance from major powers who were left unsatisfied with their position in the new political playing field. In fact, for quite a long time (at least a decade and a half), there had been practically no opposition at all. Non-Western countries, namely China and Russia, made efforts to integrate into the hierarchy. Beijing managed not only to do this, but also made the most of the situation to gain a foothold as a dominant player. Moscow, however, came out much worse and took longer to adjust to this new world order and cement a respectable place within its ranks.

The system turned out to be both inflexible and shaky as it conceptually excluded any balance of power. More importantly, however, it did not allow for a sufficient level of cultural and political diversity, which is inherently essential for the sustainable functioning of the world. A uniform worldview that ruled out all others was imposed using various means, including attitudes toward military activity….

This is not an ideological battle like the one witnessed in the second half of the twentieth century. World hegemony is currently being challenged in favor of a much more distributed model. The old Cold War concept of ‘spheres of influence’ is no longer applicable because the world has become much more transparent and interconnected, making isolation possible only to a limited degree. At least, that’s what we’ve thought – up until now.

As has often happened in the past, the current fight is being waged for strategically important territory. The old adage ‘history repeats itself’ is evident when flicking from one media outlet to another. Two different approaches have collided. On one side, there is the exercise of classic hard power, which is guided by simple, unpolished, but plainly understandable principles – blood and soil. Meanwhile, on the other is a modern method of propagating interests and influence, realized through a set of ideological, communicative, and economic tools, which are effective and, at the same time, malleable – commonly referred to as ‘values’.

Since the Cold War, the more modern of these approaches has nearly always been the go-to method. Let’s call it by its fashionable, but inaccurate, name – ‘hybrid war’. For the most part, however, this has never been met with serious resistance, let alone direct armed confrontation.

Ukraine 2022 is the decisive test that will prove which of these approaches will reign victorious. In this sense, those who suspect that the consequences could be a great deal more profound than they thought are correct.

But Russia may not be the only agent of this cardinal change. As we discussed on last night’s Darkstream, I am increasingly of the opinion that the Ukrainian operation is only the first stage in a much larger plan that involves China, and which may involve India, North Korea, and Iran as well. This scenario would account for the refusal of those nations to criticize the Russian action as well as the unprecedented – and completely unmerited – level of rhetoric and quantity of punitive actions by so many of the states and organizations controlled by the New Neo-liberal Rules-based World Order, aka The Empire of Lies aka The Empire That Never Ended aka Globohomo.

My hypothesis, which may or may not be correct, but does offer more comprehensive explanatory power than most of the alternative theories, is that all of these bizarre globalist histrionics are not aimed at Russia, which said from the start it would not be affected by them and has already demonstrated that it meant what it said, but rather, at China, in a desperate attempt to prevent Xi Xinping from opening a second, much more dangerous front against the globalist empire. This hypothesis would also account for the obvious calm with which Russia is enduring the hailstorm of world criticism, as Putin would be aware that he will only be the Hitlerist of all the Hitlers who ever Hitlered until China shows its hand.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Empire of Lies

Some call it Globohomo. Its advocates call it everything from “the Western Democracies” to “the neo-liberal world order” to “the international rules-based community”. I prefer to call it, as Philip K. Dick did, The Empire That Never Ended. But whatever you call it – and Vladimir Putin calls it the Empire of Lies – it is clear that the President of Russia knows who and what it is.

American politicians, political scientists and journalists themselves write and talk about the fact that a real ’empire of lies’ has been created inside the United States in recent years. It’s hard to disagree with that; it’s true. But do not be modest: the United States is still a great country, a system-forming power. All her satellites not only resignedly and dutifully assent, sing along to her for any reason, but also copy her behaviour, enthusiastically accept the rules he proposes. Therefore, with good reason, we can confidently say that the entire so-called Western bloc, formed by the United States in its own image and likeness, all of it is the very ’empire of lies’.

As for our country, after the collapse of the USSR, with all the unprecedented openness of the new modern Russia, the readiness to work honestly with the United States and other Western partners, and in the conditions of virtually unilateral disarmament, they immediately tried to squeeze us, finish off and destroy us completely. This is exactly what happened in the 90s, in the early 2000s, when the so-called collective West most actively supported separatism and mercenary gangs in southern Russia. What sacrifices, what losses did all this cost us then, what trials did we have to go through before we finally broke the back of international terrorism in the Caucasus. We remember this and will never forget.

Yes, in fact, until recently, attempts have not stopped to use us in their own interests, destroy our traditional values ​​and impose on us their pseudo-values ​​that would corrode us, our people from the inside, those attitudes that they are already aggressively planting in their countries and which directly lead to degradation and degeneration, because they contradict the very nature of man. It won’t happen, no one has ever done it. It won’t work now either.

Now a few important, very important words for those who may be tempted to intervene in ongoing events. Whoever tries to hinder us, and even more so to create threats for our country, for our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences that you have never experienced in your history. We are ready for any development of events. All necessary decisions in this regard have been made.

I don’t know what Putin knows that we don’t. But despite the endless, relentless series of lies being tirelessly pushed by the Empire’s propaganda machine, he is engaged in the same struggle that everyone who loves the Good, the Beautiful, and the True, and everyone who fears God, is engaged.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Roots in the Rebellion

It’s impossible to even begin to understand why Russia has invaded Ukraine without understanding the recent history of Ukraine and the Donbass republics.

April 5 and May 1, 2014 was the heart of the Ukrainian “Maidan” debacle. Elements of the junta, governors appointed from Kiev, moved southeast to the Donbass to take the profitable firms there to sell them off to the west to pay debts. A quickly organized revolt was labor’s answer and an armed uprising was the result. Russian volunteers, especially Cossacks, quickly came to the aid of the Donbass and reinforced their armed forces. On March 16, a referendum in Crimea overwhelmingly joined with Russia, as the population there had always been pro-Russian. Early May was the first failed Kievan attempt to retake the area. In response, a group of thugs burned alive more than 40 sympathizers in Odessa on the same day as the invasion failed.

While referendums were the norm in the Donbass and Crimea, in Kiev, no elections were ever held. The billionaire oligarch Poroshenko was appointed president by western bankers who held Ukraine’s debt. Russian gas chief Alexei miller said little had been paid on the Ukraine’s gas debt. Russia offered a loan to Ukraine to assist them since, by early April, Ukrainian economic production had come to a halt. Foreign aid was her only means of staying afloat.

As with the protests of 2004, all promises made by the leaders of the coup were immediately discarded and broken. In Kiev, the new government decreed 20-40% cost increases on public transportation. Prices went up by about 30% the first week. Most hospitals operated at 20-30% capacity. Volunteers were needed to staff what remained. Hot water and heat went up by 65%. Ministry of Finance of Ukraine admitted that drug prices increased by 60-70% in the country in the first week of the Junta. Over the past two months, Ukraine has not officially admitted 13.5 thousand. Russian citizens, 98 of them are denied entry into the country for long periods. The pharmacy chains in Kiev more than three-fold increased sales of antidepressants. Drug prices in Kiev have increased by 1.5 – 2 times, there is a shortage of essential drugs, including insulin. To cover for this, Ukrainian media continue fanning hysteria and intimidation. One headline from the online news agency “UNIAN” (owned by the Jewish oligarch Kolomoisky): “Russia instructed the separatists to kill 100-200 people” and that “Kievan s should construct bomb shelters” due to the alleged invasion of Ukraine.2

The governor of Dnepropetrovsk region, the oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, promised $10,000 for each DNI soldier or sympathizer killed. Oleg Tsarev was the coordinator of the Southeast resistance in the Ukraine. The Coordination Center will be located in Donetsk. The oligarch Kolomoisky was paying mercenaries to attack the DNI, since most of the Ukrainian army fled or went over to the rebels. Kiev was promising Berkut members $100,000 and up to attack DNI positions. The general Staff in Kiev wrote themselves bonuses amounting to almost 10 million hyrvna.

About 5000 Ukrainians a day were applying for visas to move to Russia. Putin and Medvedev sought cooperation to rebuild the moribund Ukrainian economy. In Donetsk to help the defenders of the Donetsk region miners organized themselves into three battalions of 200 people each. Leadership of the Donetsk People’s Republic announced the creation of a “people’s army” and the beginning of the preparation of the referendum to be held on 11 May.

Under Donetsk activists with St. George ribbons blocked, and deployed artillery brigade of the Ukrainian army. The authorities began the “anti-terrorist operation” in Slavyansk. The operation began after a confidential visit to Kiev by CIA Director John Brennan. He confirmed that 20 US citizens were lost in the attacks on the DNI from the Blackwater group.

To cover for Ukrainian defeats, the story of a “Russian invasion: was invented from whole cloth. It was covered and repeated without evidence and without question. Ukraine began plans to nationalize Russian assets. Public debt was now 60% of GDP, though the real figure is much higher. Much of Kiev saw regular power outages continually. The Rovno and other nuclear planet sere shut down for lack of personnel and money to operate. In the mining industry and metallurgy the decline in production was about 10.7%; the chemical industry, by 5.3%, in engineering, almost 20%. Gas prices went up 20% further in march.

The Kiev government began a round up and execution of its enemies. From January to February 2014, 5172 were executed in Kiev prisons. 10,000 were killed immediately after the coup and another 5,000 in March. Kiev cut off the canal supplying fresh water to Crimea’;s farmers, ruining the harvest. Strikes in industry and mines in western Ukraine turned pro-Russian….

One of the most bizarre developments in foreign policy in recent memory is the constant demand for war with China and Russia. No one is entirely sure what either nation has done.

Now they’ve got the war that they’ve been demanding, but apparently, not the sort of war they were expecting.

It’s evident that what currently passes for the Russo-Ukrainian war is not over Ukraine’s territory or its people, but rather, is aimed at the neocon-funded Orange Revolution that installed the current regime. The fact that the US, NATO, and EU are all willing to go to extremes to keep the illegitimate Zelensky in regime should suffice to show the delicate state of the neo-liberal world order, just as the fact that the Russians were willing to upset what was a stable and mutually profitable situation tends to indicate either a) something was developing in Ukraine that absolutely had to be stopped by force or b) this limited conflict is simply the first stage, and the initial front, of a much larger Sino-Russian challenge to the global satanists and their imperial disorder.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Bad Guy Tell

It’s not hard to discern which party to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict are the bad guys. Here’s a hint: it’s the one that publicly punishes people for nothing more than daring to hold an opinion about their homeland.

Russian grandmaster Sergey Karjakin is facing disciplinary action from the International Chess Federation (FIDE) after expressing support for his country’s military operation in Ukraine.

In an open letter to President Vladimir Putin shared on social media on Sunday, the Crimean-born Karjakin said he fully backed the effort to fight “for the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.”

“I appeal to you at this difficult time, when our country, led by you, is fighting for the safety of the peaceful Russian population of Donbass and the Lugansk People’s Republic,” wrote the 32-year-old.

“It is fighting for the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine with its ruling regime, which has put the security of all of Europe and our country at risk, for the sake of its political goals and ambitions.

“I am closely following the ongoing special operation, in the lands where I spent my childhood, where I learned to play chess and where my relatives still live.

“For eight long years we have been waiting with hope for salvation from countless shelling and loss of human lives, the ongoing genocide by the still acting Kiev regime.

“I express to you, our commander-in-chief, full support in protecting the interests of Russia, our multinational Russian people, eliminating threats and establishment of peace! I wish you the speedy fulfillment of all the tasks assigned to our valiant army.”

Anyone who actually looks into the matter will quickly discern that the Russians are not only in the right, they are being very careful to keep the violence and bloodshed to a minimum. Globohomo, on the other hand, is lurching about and lashing about on all sides, from chess federations to soccer games, in its attempt to control the narrative.

Ask yourself this: do you think China’s response to Taiwan and Singapore joining NATO, installing US missiles, and talking about using nuclear weapons against China would be anywhere nearly as circumspect as Russia’s has been?

And what do you think the reaction from the media would be if everyone who supported Ukraine started being similarly disciplined?

DISCUSS ON SG

That Makes Sense

The Saker explains why the Russians are surrounding the Ukrainian cities, but neither entering nor bombarding them immediately. Hint: it’s not because the brave Ukrainian grandmothers and beauty queens have been destroying dozens of T-80 tanks with tuna can openers and wine levers.

Speaking of the Chechen war, in the first one the Russian military lost a big part of an entire brigade which had quickly entered the city, moved into the city center only to find itself surrounded and cut off, with terrible communications, quasi-non existing reconnaissance capabilities. That debacle left a very painful memory in the Russian collective memory and if somebody was expecting Russian APCs to reach the Mariupol or Kharkov at full speed with flags and screams of “hurrah!” – they don’t understand what is taking place: the mistake made by Eltin’s generals during that first Chechen war will never be repeated by modern Russian commanders.

Any defeat is always a terrible tragedy, the only and best thing anybody can do after a defeat is to understand why and how it happened, and never repeat such a mistake again. That is the true reason why today Russians stopped on the outskirts of so many cities.

The bottom line is this. These are things which the Russians are trying to achieve

(1) Destroy the Ukie armed forces but kill the absolute minimum number of Ukrainian soldiers. Why? Because these surviving Ukrainian soldiers and officers are the ones who will play the main role in finally cleaning the Ukraine from the Nazi scum.
(2) Get to the outskirts of as many major Ukrainian cities and gradually begin the steps I outlined above. Convince civilians to flee and convince Ukrainian solders to lay down arms
(3) Delay any Russian penetration inside the cities until the moment is “just right”.

Why? Because Russia has ZERO intention of occupying or, even less so, rebuild or police the Ukraine, that’s why. The LDNR is as far as the Russians will go (with only a few possible exceptions).

The Kremlin decided that the goal of the operation was to 1) disarm and 2) to denazify the Ukraine. As soon as these goals are reached, the Russian want to get the hell out of the Ukraine and back into the LDNR and let the Ukrainians fight their own anti-Nazi civil war. That means that:

The Russians now must identify reasonable Ukrainian commanders and/or politicians to negotiate with
That Russia needs to offer the leftover Ukrainian ground forces the same deal which the Ukrainian forces which were tasked with the control of the Chernobyl nuclear planet were given today by the Russian forces: let’s secure this facility together and keep it secure together, with no combats of any kind. The Ukrainians gladly accepted, by the way, and now they are jointly patrolling area.
The Russian might also try something which worked well in Chechnia: tell the local town/city authorities that if they guarantee that not a single bullet will be fire from that town/city not a single Russian bullet will fly back and not a single Russian solider will enter the city, unless accompanied by locals and in order to ascertain the reality of the situation. But if a city is declared “open and peaceful” and then is used to attack Russian forces, it will be simply flattened with artillery. I call that the “Shamanov ultimatum” and, after a few false starts (and subsequently flattened towns) it worked very well.

“Ze” released a video in which he offered to negotiate directly and unconditionally, even about neutrality and any other topic. The Russian reply was simple and to the point:

(1) Russia is immediately ready to start negotiations after the Armed Forces of Ukraine lay down their arms.
(2) The Ukraine must be demilitarized and declared neutral.
(3) The Ukraine must be denazified.
(4) Russia will no longer allow the Nazis to rule in Ukraine. Ever.

After that reply, “Ze” and his aides stopped communicating.

I personally doubt that he has any control over anything. And the fact that a huge amount of weapons has been distributed to whomever wanted one today in Kiev shows that “Ze”‘s handlers have given him the order to make the biggest possible mess and bloodbath before he is evacuated.

There has been a definite air of charade and shenanigans about the media coverage of the war, to say nothing of a distinct lack of casualties and video footage. It appears the Russian approach combining quantum operational speed with strategic patience is confusing both the would-be defenders as well as the media.

DISCUSS ON SG

Bold Move, Cotton

I wonder if any of these brilliant “soft power” strategists have taken into account the fact that a) Russia has prepared for this move, and b) Russia and China already have a SWIFT alternative in place and ready to go.

The leaders of the European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States issued a statement on Saturday, announcing the latest round of restrictive measures targeting Russia’s economy in response to Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine.

In particular, they concern “selected Russian banks,” which will be “removed from the SWIFT messaging system.” Russian Central Bank, meanwhile, will be prevented “from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact” of the sanctions.

The leaders said they will also “limit the sale of citizenship — so called golden passports — that let wealthy Russians connected to the Russian government become citizens of our countries and gain access to our financial systems.”

Finally, the countries announced plans to launch “a transatlantic task force” that will identify and freeze the assets of sanctioned entities within their jurisdiction.

As usual, the provocation is a bluff. The Prometheans aren’t willing to simply shut down SWIFT entirely because that would result in Russia simply replacing it with the Sino-Russian alternative. And because it would shut off natural gas shipments to Western Europe for lack of payment. So, they’re trying to cause enough pain to encourage submission, but not so much that would result in rejection and competition.

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China is Unimpressed

The imperial US rhetoric attempting to paint Vladimir Putin as the Hitlerist of all the Hitlers that ever Hitlered does not appear to be impressing China. Just as it is failing to convince anyone outside of the Anglo-European globohomo-controlled government-media order:

Since dramatic changes took place in Ukraine, the US, which had repeatedly promised to protect Kiev at critical moments and continued to “add fuel to the fire” of the situation, has once again come into the spotlight. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a video speech complained that Western countries have abandoned Ukraine and left it to defend itself alone. Some Western netizens even asked: Where has the US been which provoked the war and said it “stands with Ukraine?”

However, has the US really disappeared? On the contrary, it is quite busy gaining more “strategic interests” from the flames of war in Ukraine. The latest remarks by the US on the Ukraine situation released by the White House have underlined two points: First, turning Russia into “a pariah on the international stage” through sanctions and other measures; second, NATO has been “more united and more determined than ever” and this is “good news.”

As for Ukraine, which Washington uses as a pawn, in addition to reiterating that the US wouldn’t send troops there, Washington only simply said it “will support the Ukrainian people as they defend their country,” and “will provide humanitarian relief to ease their suffering.” Washington has once again displayed its selfishness and hypocrisy to the world. People have seen that after the US pushed Ukraine into the fire, it stood aside, pretending to care about the country and saying “I support you, keep fighting!”

It is fair to say the evolution of the situation in Ukraine until today is a geopolitical tragedy. From the very beginning, it’s a bitter result of the US’ strategic selfishness and shortsightedness. As early as 1998 when the US Senate approved NATO’s eastward expansion plan, the late senior US diplomat George Kennan had foreseen today’s tragedy. He said then, “This expansion would make the Founding Fathers of this country turn over in their graves.”

The US often talks about humanity, justice and morality, but what it really does is calculating interests. Washington’s strategic selfishness and hypocrisy have been laid bare again and again in international political practices. Reports indicate that at least 37 million people have been displaced in and from Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, the Philippines, Libya and Syria as a direct result of the wars fought by the US since September 11, 2001. There is even a saying that wherever the US “intervenes,” conflicts, chaos and terrorism will appear.

US’ real strategic color of selfishness, hypocrisy revealed in Ukraine crisis, Global Times, 25 February 2022

The Chinese leadership knows perfectly well precisely who, and what, is responsible for the current Russo-Ukrainian war. Notice how the official Chinese English-language mouthpiece for the CCP is very careful not to attack the American people, but focuses entirely on “the US” and “Washington”. They clearly understand the difference between the nation and The Empire That Never Ended which rules over it.

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Why Russia Would Roll On

The US Secretary of State suggests that Russia might press past Ukraine into NATO territory:

Vladimir Putin may not stop once he has taken Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has warned, as satellite images show Russia assembling troops, armor and artillery along Belarus’s border with Poland. The massive buildup was spotted in the Belarus city of Brest, just 10 miles east of the the Polish border.

‘Russia has assembled troops, armor, artillery, and more than 50 heavy equipment transporters at a training area in Brest, the Polish border. Russia has also added more equipment at a nearby railyard in Belarus,’ said reporter Jack Detsch, a Pentagon and national security correspondent at Foreign Policy magazine.

Blinken was asked by ABC News on Thursday night whether he felt the Russian president would recall his forces once Ukraine was conquered.

‘Is it a possibility that Putin goes beyond Ukraine? Sure, it’s a possibility,’ Blinken told host David Muir.

But he stressed that progressing beyond Ukraine into neighboring Poland, Slovakia, Hungary or Romania would mean invading a NATO member country, and would automatically draw in the US, UK, France, Canada and the other nations that form the 30-country alliance.

‘There is something very powerful standing in the way of that, and it’s something we call Article Five,’ said Blinken.

In theory, sure. But Article Five is precisely why Russia is highly incentivized to attack any of the four countries concerned. Vladimir Putin now has a low-risk, low-cost opportunity to shatter NATO once and for all, and he would be remiss if he did not seriously contemplate taking advantage of the opportunity that now presents itself. This is so obvious that even the dementia-addled Fake Biden Administration is aware of it.

It’s clear that the USA, let alone the larger European states, have no desire whatsoever to go to war with the highly formidable Russian military. Even their ability to do so has to be in question given the way in which the larger Ukrainian military has melted before the Russian quantzkrieg, especially given the fact that the third-largest European military – Germany’s – is considered to be roughly comparable to the now-defeated Ukrainian forces.

So Putin now has the chance to prove to the various NATO member states that their precious treaty, including Article Five, is as worthless as the Anglo-French security guarantees given to Poland prior to World War II. In light of the strategic brilliance exhibited thus far by the Russian strategists, I cannot imagine that this thought has not occurred to Putin or any of his generals. They know there is no need to sweep across Eastern Europe to shatter NATO and render all of its promises null and void. A simple incursion in force that destroys a few NATO bases would almost certainly suffice to accomplish their objectives without risking World War III.

Words are often no more than just that, words. And history demonstrates that the average military treaty is worth less than the paper on which it was signed. NATO is a literally paper tiger, and it is in the Russian interest to demonstrate that to its members.

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