Tag: Russia

India Knew Russia Would Win

I read a fascinating article written by an Indian ambassador in The Tribune, India’s oldest English-language newspaper, nearly one year ago. It’s remarkable, because it illustrates that Indian strategists – or perhaps we should say Bharati strategists – clearly recognized what the European governments are still struggling to accept, namely, the inevitable defeat of the US and NATO and the transition to a multipolar world order.

Policy-makers and strategists in Delhi should make a careful note of the timeline. The bottom line is, Russia is looking for an all-out victory and will not settle for anything less than a friendly government in Kiev. Western politicians, including Biden, understand that there is nothing stopping the Russians now. The US’ weapon kitty is running dry as Kiev keeps asking for more.

When asked whether he’d meet Biden at the G20 in Bali, Putin derisively remarked on Friday, ‘He (Biden) should be asked whether he is ready to hold such negotiations with me or not. To be honest, I don’t see any need, by and large. There is no platform for any negotiations for the time being.’

However, Washington has not yet thrown in the towel and the Biden administration remains obsessed with exhausting the Russian military — even at the cost of Ukraine’s destruction. And, for the Russians too, there is still much to be worked out on the battlefield: the oppressed Russian populations in Odessa (which suffered unspeakable atrocities from the neo-Nazis), Mykolaiv, Zaporizhya, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkov are expecting ‘liberation’. It’s a highly emotive issue for Russia. Again, the overarching agenda of ‘demilitarisation’ and ‘denazification’ of Ukraine must be taken to its logical conclusion.

When all that is over, Putin knows Biden will not even want to meet him. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban said last week, ‘Anyone who seriously believes that the war can be ended through Russian-Ukrainian negotiations lives in another world. Reality looks different. In reality, such issues can only be discussed between Washington and Moscow. Today, Ukraine is able to fight only because it receives military assistance from the United States…

‘At the same time, I do not see President Biden as the person who would really be suitable for such serious negotiations. President Biden has gone too far. Suffice it to recall his statements to Russian President Putin.’

India should expect the defeat of the US and NATO, which completes the transition to a multipolar world order. Sadly, Indian elites are yet to purge their ‘unipolar predicament’. Europe, including Britain, is devastated and there is palpable discontent over the US’s ‘transatlantic leadership’. Indo-Pacific strategy is hopelessly adrift. New power centres are emerging in India’s extended neighbourhood, as the OPEC’s rebuff to Washington shows. A profound adjustment is needed in the Indian strategic calculus.

A War Russia Set to Win, 22 October 2022

One year later, it is clear that the Indian strategic calculus has, indeed, been modified as recommended, at least in part. The ambassador provides more recent prognostications at his blog, Indian Punchlines.

Looking ahead, further erosion of support for the Ukraine war can be expected and even a possible collapse of support for Ukraine across the collective West cannot be ruled out in the months ahead, especially if the Kremlin leadership finally decides to give a knockout punch to Ukraine’s military and/or orders the Russian forces to cross the Dnieper and take over Kiev and Odessa.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Decisive Turn

The mass of facts is getting to the point where even the deranged NATO strategists are beginning to have to admit their relevance to the situation and the total impossibility of the NATO objectives.

  1. Western arms and ammunition shortages.
    In June this year, British Defense Secretary Wallace said that Western countries had run out of national stocks of weapons that could be supplied to Kiev. For his part, Biden admitted in July that the decision to give cluster munitions to Ukraine was made because conventional shells had been exhausted.
  2. Public confidence in politicians in Europe and the U.S. has been lost.
    Ratings of distrust towards the heads of state of the EU and the USA are at a historical peak. 57 percent disapprove of Biden’s actions, 69 percent disapprove of Macron’s actions, 72 percent disapprove of Scholz’s actions. The majority of people in the US and European countries oppose supplying arms to Ukraine.
  3. The failure of the Kiev regime’s counteroffensive.
    The Ukrainian military, backed by NATO, has suffered huge losses in equipment and manpower. The lack of any results has disappointed Western sponsors.
  4. Economic problems of Europe and the USA.
    Eurozone economies are in recession. Germany is forced to cut social payments to poor families because of the costs of militarization of the Kiev regime. France has reduced the number of aid recipients; food packages are no longer distributed to those in need, and reimbursing of the purchase of medicines has been cut back. International agencies, expecting deterioration of the financial situation of the United States in the next three years, downgraded the long-term investment rating of the United States.
  5. Shortage of Ukrainian army personnel.
    The Kiev regime is mobilizing men over 50 years old, as well as those with tuberculosis, viral hepatitis, HIV, and others. From October 1, 2023, women will also be enrolled in the military register. Nurses, doctors and pharmacists will be barred from leaving Ukraine.
  6. Ukraine is bankrupt.
    Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 fell by 30.4 percent—the worst result in the country’s history. Without help from Washington and Brussels, Kiev cannot fulfill its obligations to its citizens. Ukraine has lost its financial autonomy.
  7. Demographic catastrophe in Ukraine.
    More than 10.5 million people fled from Ukraine. Another 11.2 million residents of Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, as well as Zaporizhya and Kherson regions made their choice to be with Russia. Since 2014, Ukraine has lost 53.7 percent of its population.

These 7 facts speak for themselves: Either the Kiev regime capitulates on the terms of the Russian Federation or Ukraine will cease to exist as a state.

The madness will end, and the sooner it ends, the better. Ukraine has already been comprehensively defeated. It has lost a higher percentage of its population than any of the defeated Axis states in WWII and any of the Triple Alliance states in WWI. NATO has been exposed as a paper tiger and the G7 “global” economy has been exposed as a mere regional one with no control and little influence over 80 percent of the planetary population.

WWIII will not end when Ukraine surrenders, but a NATO surrender on the Near Eastern Front will spare Europe some of the suffering that the Ukrainian people have experienced, because the war with China is going to be far more economically devastating than the proxy war with Russia has been.

DISCUSS ON SG

Germany Declares War on Russia

I don’t think this declaration by Germany’s Foreign Minister is going to age well, especially how it calls back to the infamous Lebensraum policy of the Third Reich.

Ukraine’s future “lies in” the European Union, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Monday, adding that the bloc would soon incorporate regions that had joined Russia in 2022 but are still claimed by Kiev.

“[The EU] will soon stretch from Lisbon to Lugansk,” Baerbock told journalists on the sidelines of the EU foreign ministers’ meeting in the Ukrainian capital.

Lugansk is the capital of the Lugansk People’s Republic – one of the two former eastern Ukrainian regions that declared independence from Kiev in 2014 in the wake of the Western-backed Maidan coup in Kiev. Russia recognized its independence in February 2022, just days before the start of its military campaign in Ukraine. In autumn 2022, the Lugansk People’s Republic joined Russia, together with three other former Ukrainian territories following a series of referendums.

I don’t think this will surprise the Russians, who have known they were going to have to defeat NATO directly ever since the decapitation attack on Kiev failed at the beginning of the special military operation. And while I’m confident the Russians aren’t seeking a European empire, I think it is far more likely that Imperial Russia will stretch from Primorsky Krai to Porto than the EU will reach Lugansk. I very much doubt either Ukraine or the EU will survive WWIII as political entities.

This does not bode well for Europeans who had hoped for saner governments in the aftermath of the inevitable failure of the Ukro-NATO offensive.

DISCUSS ON SG

“We Will Lose” – Zelensky

In fairness, he’s not lying:

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has pegged his nation’s continued fight against Russia to sustained US military assistance, according to US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. “There was a single sentence that summed it all up, and I am quoting him verbatim. Mr. Zelensky said: ‘If we don’t get the aid, we will lose the war,’” the lawmaker told journalists after meeting Zelensky on Capitol Hill on Thursday.

Of course, NATO’s Ukrainian puppet is leaving out the small matter of how if Ukraine does get the aid, it will still lose the war.

Since the Spanish Empire ruled the waves, the rule has always been that the side which can manufacture more of the primary war material, be it wooden ships, iron tanks, or AI-controlled drones, will win the war.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Artillery Dilemma

It’s obvious to any rational observer that NATO is losing the war in Ukraine, and is losing it badly. And by badly, I mean in terms that exceed Arabs vs IDF and are beginning to approach British regulars vs Zulus. But it was always perfectly clear to everyone who understood the nature of modern land war that the US military never had any chance whatsoever of winning either a direct or a proxy war against the Russians in Ukraine.

Just as the coming naval war with China will depend almost entirely upon shipbuilding capacity to replace the ships on both sides that are inevitably sunk, the war in Ukraine depends upon the production of artillery shells. Consider the following four points.

  1. Artillery is the king of the battlefield again, accounting for 85 percent of the casualties in Ukraine.
  2. One 155mm round made in the USA by USA contractors costs 5,500 dollars, while a 152mm round made in Russia costs 600 dollars.
  3. One 152mm made in North Korea probably costs less than 60 dollars. The Russians just bought 10 million of them, and due to their oil production, can afford to buy as many shells as the North Koreans can make.
  4. Outsourcing ammunition production to China is not exactly an option these days.

Quod erat demonstrandum. Apparently this new shell-supply arrangement is very upsetting to the South Koreans. Or rather, to their puppet masters in the US who are speaking through them. Only the USA is permitted to have allies, right?

SEOUL, Sept 19 (Reuters) – South Korea summoned Russia’s ambassador to warn Moscow against any military cooperation with North Korea on Tuesday after last week’s summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and President Vladimir Putin raised concerns about a possible arms deal. First Vice Foreign Minister Chang Ho-jin summoned Russia’s ambassador in Seoul to urge “Russia to immediately halt any moves to expand military cooperation with North Korea and to abide by (UN) Security Council Resolutions,” South Korea’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

No doubt the Russians will be duly chastened and refrain from further military cooperation with the North Koreans. In the meantime, and in not-unrelated news, Poland is out of the Ukrainian arms business.

“Poland will no longer arm Ukraine to focus on its own defense,” Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced just hours after Warsaw summoned Ukraine’s ambassador related to a fresh war of words and spat over blocked grain, according to the AFP. Warsaw has throughout more than a year-and-a-half of the Ukraine-Russia war been Kiev’s staunchest and most outspoken supporter.

DISCUSS ON SG

Russia Unlocks Allies

I always thought it was strange that in all the mainstream analyses of the NATO-Russian war in Ukraine, the possibility that Russia could match and exceed Ukraine’s foreign equipment supply line by purchasing Chinese, Iranian, Turkish, and North Korean armaments was never taken into account. Now, a new deal between Russia and North Korea makes it clear that they should have been.

The most significant rumor from the North Korean parleys is that Russia has possibly made deals to obtain over 10 million 122mm and 152mm artillery shells from North Korea. If even remotely true, it represents a significant number that represents upwards of 1-3 years’ worth of shell useage, depending on intensity. Firing 30k shells a day equals just over 10M per year.

Such a massive shell boost—if true—could give Russia enough to comfortably launch a massive offensive in the future without worrying about dipping into emergency reserve. Recall what I said many times before: one weakness is that Russia always has to maintain a large reserve stock of shells for the contingency that NATO happens to launch some sort of sneak attack, and full scale war breaks out. That means Russia could have several million shells as an emergency reserve it doctrinally cannot touch.

For what it’s worth, SBU head Budanov, by the way, said that Russia has already begun receiving the shipments.

So, not only can Russia exceed the total manufacturing capacity of the USA and Europe itself, but it can multiply its own resources by more than a factor of 2 by turning to its allies for additional support.

The important question here is why Russia feels the need to significantly expand its ammunition supply when it is a) winning the war and b) successfully increasing its own domestic manufacturing capabilities. An offensive is one possibility. But the attempt by the USA to open fronts on Russia’s borders in Armenia and Georgia should not be discounted.

DISCUSS ON SG

The True Goal of the WereWest

Simplicius answers questions about the NATO-Russian war in Ukraine:

Many people are wondering where is this all leading? Surely the West must know Ukraine stands no real chance of “winning” in any appreciable way, whether we define victory as completely destroying the Russian army or recapturing all the borders back to pre-2022 or even pre-1991 (Crimea).

I believe they do know this. Thus the ultimate goal is not to win kinetically or militarily, but rather to stretch out the conflict for as long as possible in order to create time and space for them to work the more subversive, under the surface war against the Russian public, elites, government, etc. In short, they want to increase the pressure on Russia’s political structures to maximize societal tension and eventually bring about some sort of political turmoil. A coup/maidan-style scenario would of course be ideal for them, even if it’s unlikely.

This is what economic sanctions were all about, as well. Not to mention the blocking of SWIFT, the destruction of Russian culture and repressions against their citizens all over the world—whether it’s bans from Olympics and other international competitions (chess, etc.), or restrictions like the ones just announced, where Russian cars are being banned from entering Europe, Russian people humiliated by customs inspections, etc.

All of this is meant to generate dissatisfaction and most importantly societal fatigue, such that the people will have “had enough” and begin to agitate against Putin and the elites. The Russian presidential election is coming up in March 2024. One ideal scenario for Western planners would have been for people to have gotten so fed up that they oust Putin by choosing a new candidate who promises to “bring an end to the pointless war, and restore Russia’s cherished economic relationships with the West.”

The problem is, all the sanctions failed, all the repressions and humiliations have only unified the Russian people with even more solidarity. New poll numbers just this week show Putin’s approval rating still sky high at 77% while new economic numbers show Russia again making record profits as oil prices have recently gone up, not to mention Russia began decreasing its ‘discounts’ to India and others.

So that was the true goal of the West—to make the war last long enough for them to demoralize Russian society into overthrowing or voting out Putin. Though it’s clearly failed, they likely believe that given enough time it can still succeed eventually, so they will probably keep trying.

When all Clown World has is a hammer, they have to assume the problem is a nail.

DISCUSS ON SG

A Decade of War

Germany is prepared to support Ukraine through 2032, even if that means fighting to the very last Ukrainian.

Germany is not daunted by the prospect of a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and will back Kiev for the next decade, Brigadier General Christian Freuding has said. He added that Berlin is seeking to ensure that Ukraine retakes all the territory within its 1991 borders.

Appearing at the Yalta European Strategy (YES) forum on Sunday, Freuding was asked whether Germany was prepared to support Ukraine if the hostilities with Russia ended up becoming a “long war” spanning several more years. The German military official replied by saying it was unrealistic to expect the conflict to end in the near future.

Freuding went on to claim that “we’ve got the support of our parliament… for our military support for our Ukrainian friends up to the year 2032.”

At the current rate of economic contraction and casualties, another nine years of proxy war with Russia will see Germany’s economy further devastated and virtually every Ukrainian male between the ages of 15 and 70 dead. Especially when Russia is quite clearly prepared for an extended war against NATO and the USA.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday indicated he was bracing for a long war in Ukraine, saying that Kyiv could use any ceasefire to rearm and that Washington would continue to see Russia as an enemy no matter who won the 2024 U.S. election.

Speaking for several hours at an economic forum in Russia’s Pacific port city of Vladivostok, Putin said Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russian forces had so far failed and the Ukrainian army had sustained heavy losses of 71,000 men in the attacks. Only when Ukraine was exhausted when it came to men, equipment and ammunition would it talk peace, he said in reply to questions from a Russian television presenter acting as a moderator.

Russia controls about 18% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea which it annexed in 2014, and a swathe of eastern and southern Ukraine which it seized after invading Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year in what it called a special military operation.

DISCUSS ON SG

This is WWIII

Even the NATO forces are openly admitting it now.

The head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council has claimed a third world war is already underway, with the Moscow-Kiev conflict pulling in countries far beyond the region. Speaking at the Kiev Security Forum on Tuesday, Aleksey Danilov argued that NATO needs Ukraine as a member, as global turbulence is set to continue. “We’re going to strengthen the alliance,” he insisted.

“If somebody thinks that World War III hasn’t started then it’s a huge mistake. It has already begun. It had been underway in a hybrid period for some time and has now entered an active phase,” he said.

Sitting on stage beside former CIA Director General David Petraeus, Danilov said that “if somebody thinks that it [the conflict in Ukraine] is about settling the scores between Kiev and Moscow then it’s a mistake. Things are much more complicated.”

He’s not wrong. I pointed this out months ago. This was never about Putin, his ego, or the revival of the Soviet Union. Don’t forget that WWII started with the Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1931, seven years before the Austrian Anschluss and ten years before the USA got openly involved. Even though we didn’t realize it until 2022, WWIII began in 2014 with the Maiden Coup in Ukraine, and it won’t be surprising if, ten years later, the US military gets openly involved in 2024.

The African front has already been opened. The Asian front will open soon, probably next year. The only serious question that remains to be answered is if there will be an American front as well.

UPDATE: Speaking of the African Front.

The crumbling house of French colonialism faces another blow as Chad demands the withdrawal of French troops from the country. This push gained momentum after the unfortunate killing of a local resident by French soldiers, sparking protests against the French colonial presence.

Ironically, France had contemplated pulling its colonial troops out of Niger and into Chad in response to demands for a definitive withdrawal date from the Niger military. Now, it seems they barely had time to leave Niger before facing expulsion from Chad. This follows previous expulsions of the French from the Central African Republic, Mali, and Burkina Faso, with Niger, Gabon, and Chad lining up as potential next exits.

DISCUSS ON SG

Ukraine in the Bunker

Despite the obvious and observable fact that a negotiated surrender is the best remaining option for the defeated Ukro-NATO alliance, any talk of surrender is strictly verboten.

German officials are eager for a negotiated solution and are talking about how Russia might be brought to the negotiating table, but are only doing so in private and with trusted think tank specialists, several of them said. But the officials also understand that they can’t push Ukraine in any way, because they don’t want Russia to smell weakness.

Still, there is a desire in Berlin as in Washington that the war not continue indefinitely, in part because political willingness for indefinite military and financial support for Ukraine is already beginning to wane, especially among those on the right and far right, who are gaining ground.

But for many others, the suggestion of a negotiated solution or a Plan B is too early and even immoral, said Constanze Stelzenmüller of the Brookings Institution. Mr. Putin has shown no interest in talking, but the younger generation of officials around him are, if anything, even harder-line, she said, citing a piece in Foreign Affairs by Tatiana Stanovaya.

“So anyone who wants to articulate a Plan B with these people on the other side is facing a significant burden of proof question,” she said. “Putin has said a lot of times he won’t negotiate except on his own terms, which are Ukraine’s obliteration. There is no lack of clarity there.”

Any credible Plan B would have to come from the key non-Western powers — like China, India, South Africa and Indonesia — that Russia is depending upon telling Moscow it must negotiate.

“These are the countries Putin is betting on,” she said. “It’s nothing we can say or do or offer.”

Eagerness from Paris or Berlin to negotiate too early will simply embolden Mr. Putin to manipulate that zeal, divide the West and seek concessions from Ukraine, said Ulrich Speck, a German analyst.

“Moving to diplomacy is both our strength and weakness,” he said. “We’re great at compromise and coalition, but that requires basic agreement on norms and goals. The shock of Ukraine is that this simply doesn’t exist on the other side.”

It’s always a shock to those who bluff when they deal with an opponent who is not bluffing. The Russians have made it very clear why they believe the USA to be “agreement-incapable”, which is based on the fact that the USA has reliably failed to honor its past agreements with Russia. I tend to doubt it even makes any sense for Russia to agree to a negotiated surrender, because all that will do is give NATO time to recuperate and rearm, just as it did after the Minsk agreements.

Since the neoclowns who are driving the war effort are so desperate to pivot to China, which unlike Russia is an existential threat to their influence, it’s probably in Russia’s strategic interests to refuse any negotiated surrender and hold to its objectives of freeing the nations of Europe from their subordination to US financial and military hegemony.

But Putin is fundamentally a moderate, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he would accept surrender in Ukraine in lieu of surrender in Europe, and leave the larger task to his more hardline successors.

DISCUSS ON SG