Tag: Russia

The Math of Attrition

Regardless of whom the Script dictates “wins” the US presidential “election” on Tuesday, or whenever the results are announced after the media has finished massaging the numbers we are supposed to take seriously, the financing for the Ukrainian war effort must be stopped immediately on humanitarian grounds. It was always inevitable and obvious that Ukraine was going to lose the war, the only question was whether it was going to give up a) Crimea, b) Crimea and the Donbas republics, c) Crimea, the Donbas republics, Odessa and everything east of the Dnieper, or d) all of Ukraine.

We’re already at (c) insofar as Russia has the ability to take it and/or demand it in the terms it requires for Ukraine’s surrender. The only question is if it is necessary for Ukraine to lose another 100,000+ lives and risk (d) before accepting the inevitable. For, as Simplicius calculates the attritional math, even if Zelensky is permitted to throw the young men and women of Ukraine into the Russian abattoir, it is not going to recover one single square meter of former Ukrainian land.

Using using all the above figures, if we know that total monthly mobilization is somewhere around 15,000 to 20,000 as per several independent reports. The wording he uses is a little odd: “one and a half times less”. But if we are to assume this is the same as “one and a half times greater” than the mobilization number, then 15k and 20k multiplied by 1.5 gets us between 22.5k and 30k monthly losses. This would be 750 to 1,000 losses per day… Recently, Ukrainian journalists again reported that over 100,000 have already deserted the AFU with the number now 380 desertions per day:

In general, it’s hard to imagine the AFU surviving such attrition rates for longer than 6 months. If they are recruiting 20k but losing 30k, that means the entire armed forces is essentially losing a net 10k men per month. In only 6 months that would be 10k x 6 = 60k, which would represent roughly one major city-front area, like a Bakhmut or Avdeevka. At 12 months it would be 120k, representing an entire front-region, like Zaporozhye, or the entire Donetsk front, etc. Perhaps this is why the Pentagon has now said Ukraine only has 6-12 months of troops left?

Remember, the same sources say Russia not only breaks even, but is gaining a net positive manpower per month, building new strength and brigades. If there’s any truth to both sides of those numbers, then it would not be physically possible for the AFU to survive past 6 months or so. Please note, all the above numbers and reports I presented on the AFU are from original Ukrainian sources like the Aidar commander—no speculation whatsoever.

However, recall that Zelensky still has a final trump card, which is lowering the mobilization age to 18-20. This could immediately buy him more time, but it could also bring some kind of revolt or social uprising in the country. It’s a risky move but it would obviously give Ukraine hundreds of thousands of more men, that could buy another year or so at the most.

War = math + manufacturing + morale. And Russia clearly has the comprehensive advantage of all three. There is no scenario, no plan of intervention, no rhetorical flurry, that is capable of significantly changing that without being countered and neutralized. Therefore, any continuation of this reprehensibly stupid attempt to prevent Vladimir Putin from achieving his objectives and ending the Special Military Operation is inhumane, immoral, and objectively wicked.

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BRICS to Expand by 13

13 countries received the status of BRICS partner country at the 2024 BRICS summit. They are Turkey, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda and Vietnam. BRICS partner country status is a mandatory step before full membership.

The 13 new partner countries, at least 10 of which will become full BRICS members in a year or so, effectively add 840,276,082 people to the economic alliance, which alone is more than the USA, the UK, the EU, and Israel combined. Their coming addition will also make BRICS the global majority. The key additions are current NATO member Türkiye, Southeast Asian giant Indonesia, African giant Nigeria, and Asian military power Vietnam. Clown World has been desperate to keep both Türkiye and Vietnam on its side, but it now appears to have lost both.

At this point, it should be clear that Russia has comprehensively defeated Clown World, not only militarily and economically, but diplomatically as well. To paraphrase Rorshach, Clown World hasn’t locked Russia in solitary, but Clown World is locked in with itself.

Note to the Finnish, Swedish, and Swiss governments: You all chose poorly in selecting this particular moment in time to abandon your historic neutralities. Very, very poorly indeed. There isn’t a single BRICS nation, or even BRICS partner country, that is as small as any of you. Not only is the USA totally incapable of “protecting” you from Russia or any other military threat, but you’re actively doing harm to your ability to engage economically with more than half of the globe and counting.

You would do well to re-establish your neutrality, and do it fast.

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An Irrelevant Ex-Empire

The UK military is totally incapable of war:

The UK military is unprepared to fight in a major conflict and would not be able to deter the enemy if a war breaks out now, British Defense Secretary John Healey has acknowledged. The British army, navy and air force have been “hollowed out” and “underfunded” during the 14 years of the Conservative Party’s rule, Healey said in his appearance on Politico’s Power Play podcast on Thursday. When the UK Labour Party came to power in July, “we expected things to be in a poor state – but the state of the finances, the state of the forces, was far worse than we thought,” he added.

The UK military failed to stop the invasion by millions of foreigners. It has no air defenses worth speaking of. It isn’t capable of stopping a violent insurrection by its resident invaders, much less anything that Russia should elect to do in response to the UK government’s fanning the flames of war in Ukraine.

Those who believed nuclear weapons meant an end to war never considered the inevitable development of anti-missile technology; the small size of the UK’s “nuclear deterrent force” means that if the Russians can’t already shoot it down with lasers and hypersonic missile defense systems – both of which are already in development – they will be able to do so soon.

The UK never had much in the war of ground forces, which were always intended to provide the balance of power on the continent. But now, with both the French and the German militaries but a shadow of their former selves, there is literally nothing to prevent Russia from accomplishing whatever it decides is in its national interest. Fortunately, and contra the neocon warmongering, none of the BRICS powers are showing any interest in following the self-destructive leads of the UK and the USA into empire.

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Smells Like BRICSX

It appears the maintainers of Linux are dumb enough to embrace the Grand Bifurcation and write off the majority of the human population:

Following yesterday’s news first featured on Phoronix of several Linux driver maintainers being de-listed from their maintainer positions within the mainline Linux kernel over their connections to Russia, Linus Torvalds has today commented on the matter.

Since yesterday there’s been a lot of concern and mixed views over a number of Linux kernel maintainers being de-listed from the kernel’s MAINTAINERS file seemingly over being Russian or using Russian email addresses. In response to the patch posting from last week has also been proposals to revert that prior patch, some of the affected maintainers voicing their surprise over this sudden move, and some being upset over the lack of public clarity into the seemingly new “compliance requirements” imposed on the Linux kernel.

Greg Kroah-Hartman who authored the patch dropping the various maintainers has yet to comment on the mailing list thread, but a few minutes ago Linus Torvalds chimed in with his opinion. Linux creator Linus Torvalds wrote:

“Ok, lots of Russian trolls out and about. It’s entirely clear why the change was done, it’s not getting reverted, and using multiple random anonymous accounts to try to “grass root” it by Russian troll factories isn’t going to change anything.

And FYI for the actual innocent bystanders who aren’t troll farm accounts – the “various compliance requirements” are not just a US thing.

If you haven’t heard of Russian sanctions yet, you should try to read the news some day. And by “news”, I don’t mean Russian state-sponsored spam.

As to sending me a revert patch – please use whatever mush you call brains. I’m Finnish. Did you think I’d be supporting Russian aggression? Apparently it’s not just lack of real news, it’s lack of history knowledge too.”

It’s not as if the Russians are simply going to throw up their hands and start using Windows 11. This promises to be the Mother of All Forks, and given the recently expressed position of BRICS on the illegality of Western sanctions, I doubt any of the BRICS countries are going to stick with the original Linux version.

This is where the fatal flaw of having a weak central figure like Torvalds in charge inevitably comes into play. Succession plans are difficult enough for strong Alphas to accomplish successfully, but when a mild-mannered Delta is the man in charge, some sort of future debacle is all but guaranteed.

Linus, it’s not that anyone thinks you’re supporting Russian aggression. It’s just that we assumed you wouldn’t be retarded enough to publicly endorse the division of the global Linux community and the creation of a Sino-Russian alternative operating system. But we were wrong.

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Trump Declares War Lost

It would have been better if he’d said this two years ago, when the inevitable outcome was already obvious. But it’s still helpful to prevent the Kiev regime trying to fight to the last Ukrainian.

Former US President Donald Trump has declared that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has already “lost” the conflict with Russia. The Republian candidate also accused President Joe Biden of ‘provoking’ the fighting in the first place.

“That war is a loser,” Trump said on the PBD Podcast, on Thursday, criticizing Zelensky as a “great salesman” who repeatedly secured billions in US aid without securing victory. Trump added that the conflict could have been avoided had he remained in charge after the 2020 election.

Trump also blamed Biden for escalating tensions with Russia, claiming that his statements ahead of the Moscow launching its miliatry operation were the “exact opposite” of what should have been said. He also expressed confidence that he could resolve the issue swiftly if returned to office in November’s vote.

I have no doubt that President Trump can quickly negotiate an end to the war. Russia has no interest in controlling Western Ukraine, they simply don’t want to permit Clown World to do so. It’s very unfortunate that Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, because that creates an issue that will require resolution before Russia can be reasonably expected to stand entirely down.

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The Well Runs Dry

France and Germany are throwing in the towel on Ukraine. Not all at once, of course, but the writing is clearly on the wall.

The heavyweights of Europe — France and Germany announced a reduction in funding for Ukraine. Not far from the time when The EU will also abandon anti-Russian sanctions, the observer is sure Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.

France, which promised assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 3 billion euros this year, reduced it by 1 billion, that is, by a third. This is caused by problems in the budget — its deficit for 2024 may amount to about 6% of the country’s GDP, which is unacceptable, according to EU rules. French Defense Minister Sebastian Lecorniu in an interview with Politico clarified that he does not plan to request additional funds from the parliament for Kiev by the end of this year.

Germany has also cut aid to Ukraine by half since the new year. According to German media, according to the budget for 2025, it will decrease from 7.1 billion euros this year to 4 billion euros next year.

It would be much better to make Ukraine go cold turkey and put pressure on the Kiev regime to surrender unconditionally instead of pointlessly wasting more Ukrainian lives in a futile effort to maintain a false posture that will neither fool nor impress the Russians into settling for less than they believe they require for a lasting peace. In the aftermath of the NATO expansion and Minsk betrayals, Russia is not in a hurry to reach any sort of settlement that is simply going to lead to another war in a decade when its position might be less advantageous.

The undeniable military reality is that Ukraine has to accept whatever Russia decides to demand; only then can the massive work of attempting to rebuild a smaller and less ambitious Ukrainian state begin. The other option is that Russia will simply continue its war of attrition until Kiev falls to its forces, so the sooner Kiev surrenders, the better for everyone.

1.8 million casualties, of which 780,000 are KIA since February 2022. And for what? About the only substantive accomplishment was permitting Kiev to serve as a massive short-term money-laundering center for the global elite.

The inflexion point has been reached. The Pax Americana, the neo-liberal world order, and the post-WWII era have ended. The locii of power have shifted from London and Washington to Moscow and Beijing. This is the new global reality. This is now the context in which all geopolitical and military and economic policies must be understood.

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End Game in Ukraine

It’s all but over for the Kiev regime. It’s taken Berlin 31 months to recognize the obvious, but the Germans, which means the Europeans, have finally given up on the idea of winning Clown World’s proxy war on Russia. The right thing to do would be to instruct Kiev to surrender and spare the lives of the Ukrainian soldiers whose sacrifice would be totally pointless at this point.

Germany has no more military hardware to offer Ukraine beyond what has already been pledged, even as Kiev remains hard-pressed by Russia on the front line, Bild reported on Saturday.

According to the outlet, the German Defense Ministry does not believe that Ukraine will be capable of launching “an offensive to liberate its own territory” in the near future.

The report also said, citing an internal document, that Berlin would no longer send “heavy weapons” to Ukraine, and that deliveries of this type of aid have been “completed.” The term applies to tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, self-propelled howitzers and similar hardware.

Russia obviously can, and will, grind it out until Kiev is flattened like Berlin was in 1945. But I doubt anyone who doesn’t belong to the Azov Brigade is going to be very interested in facing the increasingly capable Russian war machine, which history has repeatedly shown will continue to improve its abilities until it takes the enemy capital.

In the 19th century, the Russians took Paris. In the 20th century, the Russians took Berlin. In the 21st century, if they are forced to do so by NATO’s recalcitrance, the Russians will take Kiev, Berlin, and Paris. Fortunately, Putin understands the evils of empire and has no interest in following the disastrous lead of the British and US empires. So it would be much better for everyone if the inevitable were simply accepted, however bitterly, now instead of this time next year.

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BRICS or Sanctions

Aspiring members cannot choose both, thereby preventing countries like France, which has previously expressed an interest in joining the growing trade bloc, from obtaining membership:

BRICS applicants can’t join in sanctions against any of the economic bloc’s member states, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said on Thursday, outlining one of the conditions for joining the club.

The group that started as an informal association of Brazil, Russia, India and China has since expanded to nine member states and is expected to discuss further enlargement at its summit in Kazan, Russia later this month.

”One needs to pursue a sovereign policy, have a significant role in international and regional affairs, build good-neighborly and friendly relations with the BRICS countries, and not join in illegitimate sanctions against members of the association,” Ryabkov said at a press conference in Moscow on Thursday, when asked about conditions for aspiring members.

This underlines the absolute and utter stupidity of formerly neutral countries like Sweden and Switzerland giving in to US and EU pressure, abandoning their historical neutralities, and taking sides against Russia. Because now, it’s clear that they’re going to end up losing access to most of the world’s population and half the world’s GDP.

Current BRICS member countries account for about 46% of the world’s population and over 36% of global GDP. At least 34 countries have expressed interest in joining the organization.

It’s a real loss for Switzerland, which has already lost a substantial amount of its historical gold trade to Dubai. True neutrality would have put Switzerland in an ideal position to serve as an economic bridge between the US bloc and the China-Russia bloc, but by choosing to side with the former, they have sacrificed the opportunity to do for global trade what they once did for global diplomacy.

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IDF Attacks Russia?

I assumed this report of an Israeli attack on a Russian air base in Syria had to be some sort of war-porn fiction.

ISRAEL is reportedly hitting “terrorist targets in western Syria and along the Syria coastline.”

So far they’ve hit in Latakia and Tartus, home ports of the Russian Mediterranean Flotilla.

Also the Russian Hmeimim Air Base.

The Russian ammo stockpile there is exploding.

Russian air defenses are reportedly firing at Israeli aircraft.

The strikes occurred an hour after the arrival of an Iranian plane belonging to “Qashim Fars” airline.

The source of the bombing is not yet confirmed, but it reportedly involved 30 missiles fired from naval battleships between 3:55 and 4:41 AM.

However, the mainstream reports do at least confirm that the IDF attacked a weapons depot “near” the Russian air base.

Israeli conducted strikes near the Syrian coast this morning, with explosions reported in the vicinity of the Russian-operated Khmeimim Air Base, near the city of Latakia. At this stage, it’s not clear if the Russian airfield was actually hit, deliberately or otherwise — which would be a first. Either way, however, the attacks represent a notable escalation in terms of Israel’s willingness to prosecute targets that are very close to this key Russian military facility in Syria and a major point of pride for Moscow.

Initial accounts from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a U.K.-based information office, describe attacks in the coastal Latakia province, with targets including an ammunition warehouse said to be near Jablah city, not far from Khmeimim Air Base. Weapons supplied by Iran and destined for Hezbollah, its Lebanese ally and proxy, often are delivered first to Syria, for onward transit to Lebanon. The suggestion here is that Iranian munitions headed for the militant group were targeted soon after they arrived in Syria.

So, it’s unclear. And while Russia Today doesn’t have anything about the attack – or near-attack – this announcement today may be related.

The Russian ambassador to Israel, Anatoly Viktorov, has urged Russian citizens to leave the Jewish state in view of the increasing tensions in the region.

They may have invented the word, but I find it very, very difficult to imagine that the Israelis would be so full of chutzpah that they would choose to go hot with the Russians. Even the US neocons have had more sense than to push for that. I mean, I don’t see how the IDF can even hope to handle the Iranians with or without the US military.

I sincerely hope this is an exaggeration, if not a complete fabrication.

UPDATE: It was an exaggeration. But it was pretty close, being only 1.5 kilometers away from the base.

Reports of the Russian Hmeimim Military Base being hit by an Israeli airstrike are false. We have geolocated the video and photo. The photo was taken from the second or third floor of ‘al-Salom Gym’, 35.3721083, 35.9250677, Jableh, Syria. The most likely areas of target are shown on the map as “1” and “2” – although the Russian base (shown on the map) is approximately 1,500 meters away from either target site.

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The Expansion of BRICS

BRICS will be growing significantly next month.

The next wave of BRICS expansion will be announced at the group’s annual summit in the Russian city of Kazan in October, Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov has claimed. Speaking on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, Ryzhenkov predicted that BRICS could add at least ten new members, while expressing optimism that his own country’s application for membership will be approved.

“The first wave of enlargement, as we all expect – those who have submitted such applications – will take place at the Kazan summit,” Ryzhenkov told RIA Novosti. Russia is “formulating the list of these countries that will be in the first wave of enlargement,” he added.

As the current holder of the BRICS chairmanship, Russia will host the group’s annual summit in Kazan from October 22 to 24. Earlier this month, Belarusian First Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Lukashevich said his country is in the first pool of BRICS candidates, along with Algeria, Bangladesh, Bahrain, Bolivia, Venezuela, Vietnam, Cuba, Honduras, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Morocco, Nigeria, Palestine, Senegal, and Thailand.

Several other countries, including Türkiye, Zimbabwe, and Burkina Faso, have also shared their intent to join. Founded in 2006 by Russia, China, India, and Brazil, the organization accepted South Africa as a member in 2011. Earlier this year, it expanded to welcome four new member states – Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE. So far, at least 34 countries have expressed interest in joining, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at a senior BRICS meeting earlier in September.

The three most significant countries in that first set are Vietnam, Indonesia, and Nigeria. Clown World has been working hard to try to separate Vietnam from China, and “the Prussians of Asia”, as Lee Kwan Yew described them, are historically the most aggressive nation in Asia. Indonesia is the largest Muslim country and is closely tied economically to China, and Nigeria is the most populous and most advanced African state. Between them, just those three countries have 150 million more people than the entire European Union.

The inclusion of Palestine is also significant, as while BRICS is not a military alliance, the economic power it wields is already formidable, and a boycott by BRICS would be potentially be more devastating than the US sanctions regime on Russia have been. The biggest news, of course, would be if Türkiye is allowed to jump the queue, especially if it exits NATO in the process.

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