Tag: politics

They both cannot be correct:

The blue wave is going to hit with a vengeance in Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to pollsters who say Democrats should easily capture the 23 seats they need to regain control of the House. But an upbeat President Trump predicted victory in the Senate — where pollsters say the GOP has a good chance to maintain or widen its majority — and even the House.

“There is a great electricity in the air like we haven’t seen, in my opinion, since the ’16 election,” Trump told reporters before leaving for a rally in Cleveland.

“So, something’s happening . . . I think we’re going to do very well in the House. I have never seen the energy that we have, the energy that this whole party has now, it’s really incredible.”

Whatever the outcome, Trump made it clear these midterm elections are about him.

“In a sense, I am on the ticket,” he said at the rally.

Earlier, in a telephone town hall, the president urged supporters to get out and vote because “the press is very much considering it a referendum on me and us as a movement.”

Every major poll said Trump is wrong about the Republicans maintaining control of the House.

The political website ­FiveThirtyEight calculated that Democrats had an 87.5 percent chance of winning it back.

Similarly, The Cook Political Report said Republicans had a tougher road to maintaining their majority. “We rate 75 races as competitive, including 70 GOP-held seats and just five held by Democrats. A ‘Red Exodus’ is contributing to the potential ‘Blue Wave.’ Of Republicans’ 41 open seats, 15 are rated as toss-ups or worse, and another five only lean Republican,” according to the website.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a website run by University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato, predicted that Democrats would easily pick up the necessary 23 seats. But it also cautioned that anything was possible with the country so deeply divided and memories of Trump’s upset win in 2016 still fresh in mind.

Most polls predicted similar results, with a CNN generic ballot survey showing Democrats ahead of Republicans by 55 percent to 42 percent, and the RealClearPolitics average of generic polls showing Democrats leading with 49.7 percent compared with 42.4 percent for Republicans.

If, as I anticipate, Republicans remain in control of the House, this election is going to destroy the rest of the mainstream media’s remaining credibility.

Nate Silver is desperately attempting to remain credible. It’s not working:

FiveThirtyEight’s election forecaster Nate Silver said Sunday that the House could end up in Democratic or Republican hands in Tuesday’s election, though polling predicts that Democrats will flip the chamber.

“So in the House we have Democrats with about a 4 in 5 chance of winning,” Silver told ABC’s “This Week.”

However, he noted that “polls aren’t always right.”

“The range of outcomes in the House is really wide,” he explained. “Our range, which covers 80 percent of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53. Most of those are under 23, which is how many seats they would need to win to take the House,” he said.”

“But no one should be surprised if they only win 19 seats and no one should be surprised if they win 51 seats,” Silver added. “Those are both extremely possible, based on how accurate polls are in the real world.”

The low end is 15+ Democrat. Duly noted.

Haunted by memories of 2016, liberals around the country are riven with anxiety in the campaign’s homestretch. They’re suspicious of favorable polls and making election night contingency plans in case their worst fears come true. Some report literal nightmares about a Democratic wipeout.

“We’re kind of just in the bed-wetting phase now,” said Democratic pollster John Anzalone, a Hillary Clinton campaign alumnus who spent election night 2016 in Clinton’s Manhattan war room.

Two years later, even thinking about the prospect of a repeat of that night’s letdown is still too much for many Democrats to bear.

This should be amusing.

Rasmussen Reports is noticing a pattern concerning how Republican voters don’t tend to show their hand:

Just as in 2016, Democrats are more outspoken about how they’re going to vote in the upcoming elections than Republicans and unaffiliated voters are.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 60{01f02ff5c3cf9d4a85478ebd476d665649f9a1508a833d70ddca2c7e9b315fd2} of Likely Democratic Voters say they are more likely to let others know how they intend to vote this year compared to previous congressional elections. This compares to 49{01f02ff5c3cf9d4a85478ebd476d665649f9a1508a833d70ddca2c7e9b315fd2} of Republicans and 40{01f02ff5c3cf9d4a85478ebd476d665649f9a1508a833d70ddca2c7e9b315fd2} of voters not affiliated with either major political party.

In August 2016, 52{01f02ff5c3cf9d4a85478ebd476d665649f9a1508a833d70ddca2c7e9b315fd2} of Democrats were more likely to let others know how they intended to vote in the upcoming presidential election, compared to 46{01f02ff5c3cf9d4a85478ebd476d665649f9a1508a833d70ddca2c7e9b315fd2} of Republicans and 34{01f02ff5c3cf9d4a85478ebd476d665649f9a1508a833d70ddca2c7e9b315fd2} of unaffiliated voters. Some analysts before and after Donald Trump’s upset victory suggested that most pollsters missed his hidden support among voters fearful of criticism who were unwilling to say where they stood.

Similarly when asked now about family, friends and co-workers, 60{01f02ff5c3cf9d4a85478ebd476d665649f9a1508a833d70ddca2c7e9b315fd2} of Democrats say they are also more likely to tell others how they intend to vote, but only 46{01f02ff5c3cf9d4a85478ebd476d665649f9a1508a833d70ddca2c7e9b315fd2} of Republicans and 45{01f02ff5c3cf9d4a85478ebd476d665649f9a1508a833d70ddca2c7e9b315fd2} of unaffiliated voters agree.

Of course Democrats are talk more. They can’t distinguish the narrative from reality. They are magical thinkers who believe that casting a narrative spell creates the reality. In any event, it’s interesting to see how the pollsters are in quiet retreat from their previous narrative now that the actual voting is imminent.

NBC News reported that more people showed up to early voting, outpacing the 2014 midterms by leaps and bounds with a whopping 24,024,621 million ballots having already been counted. For comparison, 2014 only had 12,938,596 counted by this time, putting 2018 at nearly double.

To precisely no one’s surprise, another accuser of Supreme Court Associate Justice Kavanaugh has admitted that her accusations were Fake News:

One of Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh’s accusers admitted this week that she made up her lurid tale of a backseat car rape, saying it “was a tactic” to try to derail the judge’s confirmation to the Supreme Court.

Sen. Chuck Grassley, chairman of the Judiciary Committee revealed the fraud in a letter to the FBI and Justice Department Friday, asking them to prosecute Judy Munro-Leighton for lying to and obstructing Congress. Mr. Grassley said Ms. Munro-Leighton is a left-wing activist who hijacked another “Jane Doe” anonymous report about a backseat rape and claimed it as her own story, calling it a “vicious assault.”

“I am Jane Doe from Oceanside CA — Kavanaugh raped me,” Ms. Munro-Leighton wrote in an Oct. 3 email claiming to have been a victim of the judge.

Republicans had better prosecute these false accusers and prosecute them hard, because this has become a standard tactic for Democrats attempting to derail Republican appointees. Ms Munro-Leighton really would have done much better to describe her false accusation of backseat car rape as a “thought experiment” rather than a political tactic.

A bold prediction by Fleporblog flies directly in the face of the Blue Wave-predicting pollsters:

Florida is looking better and better by the day for Republicans! Nearly 3.75 million people have voted early. The margin for the Republicans continues to increase each day (currently +63,537). Democrats had a lead of 96,450 at the end of Early Voting in 2016. The difference at this point is +159,987 for Republicans. We have an excellent chance of flipping FL-D7 and a good chance of flipping FL-D13.

We will not lose a single Republican House Seat.

Nevada has been a night and day difference when comparing 2018 to 2016. The RNC went all in with door-to-door knocking starting 6 months ago. It is really paying off BIGLY! We will hold the Senate Seat (Heller) and the Governor’s Seat. We have a fantastic chance of flipping NV-D3 and a good chance of flipping NV-D4.

We will not lose a single Republican House Seat.

If this guy gets it right with a call that virtually no one else is making, he’ll definitely be one site to watch in the 2020 Presidential election.

It’s important to put the pollsters on the record. Democrats are doubling down on the Blue Wave:

A political analyst updated his outlook for the House just days before midterm elections, giving the Democrats an even greater edge over Republicans hoping to maintain power. Dave Wasserman, who is House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, tweeted Wednesday that their forecast was being updated, predicting that Democrats gain 30-40 seats, up from 25-35 seats. Wasserman added that this prediction could change before the Nov. 6 midterm elections.

The forecast suggests a so-called “blue wave” is more becoming more likely. Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take control of the lower chamber. In the Senate, which the GOP also controls, 24 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats, are up for re-election. Nine Republicans are up for re-election. Only one seat, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp’s, D-N.D., is rated anything below “toss-up” at “lean-R,” according to Cook Political Report.

RealClearPolitics gives Democrats a smaller edge in the House than Cook, factoring in a number of toss ups. Their latest House elections map shows Democrats taking 203 seats versus 198 for Republicans. Thirty-four races are listed in the “toss ups” category.

So, we’re expected to believe that the President’s approval ratings are rising to the highest level of his presidency at the same time that the mid-term elections are going strongly against him? It does not add up. And while Wasserman is waffling only five days out, I will stick to my prediction from May 31, 2017, there will be no “blue wave”.

Nate Silver presently predicts an 84.9 percent chance of Democrats taking the House.

From the transcript of the Darkstream:

What I thought was really interesting about the God-Emperor’s statements today was that they made it clear that he’s condemning all political violence, which of course we know is predominantly conducted by Democrats, it is predominantly conducted by Antifa, and so it’s just utterly ridiculous to pretend that Donald Trump’s violent rhetoric is inspiring people to do bad and terrible things. Now it is possible that the person responsible is actually a Republican, it’s possible that the person responsible is a channer pulling some sort of serious practical joke, but these “bombs”, so to speak, look like something out of the Acme catalog that you see in the Wile E. Coyote vs Roadrunner cartoons.

Now we see this stuff over and over and over again, we see these hoaxes over and over and over again, and you know that the people perpetrating them are midwits, you know they’re not terribly smart because they just think, well, it worked once, it worked twice, it worked three times, therefore it will always work! Surely no one will ever notice this pattern of behavior! And of course the media is leaping on this in a big way. What’s funny is that there are even Democratic politicians like Cuomo who are claiming falsely that they received these fake bombs.

You know when political violence, real political violence takes place in a country, like for example when the Shining Path went after politicians and and police in Peru, there was no mistaking it. There was no mistaking the political violence in Ireland either, but this stuff is a joke. It’s a hoax, it’s a false flag, it is fake news! The whole idea is to attempt to repress Republican attacks on the Democrats, and especially Republican attacks on the media, because they’re so effective. I mean think about it,  what is the narrative here? Because the President and others say that the media is fake, people are sending bombs in the mail and therefore the president shouldn’t do that. How does this make any sense at all? There is no logic to it. If you actually wrote it out in a proper syllogistic form, you would see that it doesn’t work, it’s bad logic,  and it’s bad rhetoric too because everybody knows it’s fake I mean, you’re going to solve the problem of the news you push being fake by creating more fake news? The narrative is just absolutely ludicrous.

As you’d expect, Neon Revolt has considerably more on the Fake News Fake Bombs.

UPDATE: They’re doubling down on their false flaggery. Robert De Niro? Seriously?

Investigators seized two more suspected package explosives — one addressed to former Vice President Joe Biden in Delaware and one addressed to Robert De Niro in New York

Oh noes! Those hateful haters in the Republican party are MAILING PIPE BOMBS to places that are almost guaranteed not to harm anyone, least of all the Democratic politicians and media figures who are the putative targets!

Clearly this means we have no choice but to a) disarm all Americans and b) vote for Democrats. The logic is irrefutable.

Explosive devices addressed to Hillary Clinton’s home and the house of former President Barack Obama were intercepted, and the Time Warner Center that is home to CNN in New York City was evacuated after a suspicious package was sent there, officials said.

Investigators are working to determine whether the two devices addressed to Clinton and Obama are connected to a pipe bomb found earlier this week in the home mailbox of billionaire George Soros near where the Clintons live in Chappaqua, New York, multiple law enforcement officials told ABC News.

I haven’t seen anything this Fake News since a literal actor “attacked” Comet Pizza by firing a single gunshot at the floor when the owner was out. I mean, at least when the Nazis Fake-Newsed the Reichstag, they actually burned it down.

UPDATE: Okay, this is even more fake.

A suspicious package has been found at U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz’ office in Sunrise, police said. “Yes, I can confirm there’s a suspicious package and we’re handling it right now.” Broward Sheriff Scott Israel said.

Broward County Sheriff’s Office… now that does sound familiar, does it not?

UPDATE: Well, now we have a good idea who mailed them… to himself and others.

CNN on Wednesday reported that the suspicious package that forced an evacuation of its New York headquarters was addressed to former CIA director John Brennan, a frequent Trump critic and MSNBC contributor.

UPDATE: The Littlest Chickenhawk characteristically weighs in:

If your first reaction to some evil person sending bombs to a variety of politicians on one side of the aisle is “FALSE FLAG,” you are officially deranged.
– Ben Shapiro

Or, you know, capable of basic pattern recognition. I guess it takes more than a 115 IQ to figure that out.

The God-Emperor has spoken:

America is winning again. America is respected again because we are the first We’re putting America first. It hasn’t happened in a lot of decade. We’re putting them first We’re taken care of ourselves for a change Like that guy, but not that much. But radical democrats want to turn back the clock For the rule of corrupt power hungry, globalist, globalist. You know what globalist is? A globalist is a person that wants the globe to do well, frankly, not caring about our country so much.

And you know what, we can’t have that. You know they have a word. It sort of became old fashioned, It’s called a nationalist, and I say really, we’re not supposed to use that word. You know what I am? I’m a nationalist, okay? I’m a nationalist. Nationalist. Nothing wrong. Use that word. Use that word.

They reported yesterday that Donald Trump was unpopular with foreign nations, He’s one of the most unpopular president in the history of polling, And I said No, I said, Of course, I’m unpopular with foreign nations because we’re not letting them rip us off anymore.

I, too, am a nationalist. Not a civic nationalist. Not an creedal nationalist. Not a paper nationalist. Not any kind of Fake Nationalist. Because I simply don’t have faith in the Satanic religion of Babel and I don’t believe int the beneficence of Eine Welt, Ein Volk, Ein Reich like the globalists and the Fake Nationalists do.

The God-Emperor’s will and his nationalism are about to be tested by the caravan of invaders. Let us hope, let us pray, that he rises to the challenge and does what must be done.