Tag: politics

Precisely on schedule. Demoralization Season is now over and it’s Maintain Future Credibility time. This Republican candidate is correct about what is happening as predicted.

The Trump/Biden polls aren’t tightening. This is the last ditch effort of pollsters trying to save their pathetic propaganda careers.

– Lauren Witzke, US Senate candidate, DE

Unfortunately for those propaganda careers, the magnitude of Trump’s victory is going to render their efforts futile.

Clay Travers of Outkick the Coverage explains why he is voting for Donald Trump:

I believe every single media member should address his or her audience and say exactly what they are doing with their own vote this year. I think authenticity matters and I believe audiences should know what public figures who claim to be unbiased do when they enter the privacy of a voting booth. This is not a new position for me, I have shared my presidential votes publicly every year that I’ve been a public figure.

For those of you who are new to Outkick: here are my presidential votes since I became a public media figure in 2004:

2004: John Kerry

2008: Barack Obama

2012: Barack Obama

2016: Gary Johnson

2020: Donald Trump

I also voted for Al Gore in 2000 and worked on his political campaign as a college student.

This voting record illustrates precisely why linear models based on changing demographics don’t work. And it also demonstrates why the God-Emperor is going to considerably exceed expectations next week.

The GDP numbers are in. The God-Emperor will win:

According to the election prediction model developed by John Antonakis, Professor at HEC Lausanne (University of Lausanne) and Philippe Jacquart, Professor at EMLyon, the deciding factors in the critical swing states will be the state of the economy and the charisma of the candidates. For the November 3rd US Presidential election, positive economic indicators should boost the chances of a Trump win.

The statistical model developed by the researchers and professors John Antonakis and Philippe Jacquart, is based on two kinds of data: the country’s economic fundamentals and the political party currently in power (based on the economic model developed by Prof. R. Fair at Yale University), as well as the candidates’ level of charisma. This model has correctly called the 2016 and 2012 elections and, retrospectively, 20 of 24 elections from 1916-2008.

• Positive economic messages help an incumbent get re-elected.
• An incumbent president running again has an advantage.
• Economic growth data in this quarter will weigh heavily on voting outcomes (current forecasts suggest between 20-30{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3} 3rd Quarter growth).
• Biden’s election speech is less charismatic than Trump’s speech.

And what was the economic growth reported?  

U.S. GDP booms at 33.1{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3} rate in Q3, better than expected.

Ergo, it’s not only in the bag, but President Trump is going to win in a landslide that has only been exceeded by Ronald Reagan in his 49-state thumping of Walter Mondale. Despite the Fake Polls, everyone knows this is going to happen: Walmart is not pulling all its guns-for-sale off the floor because Trump’s supporters lack weaponry and Rodeo Drive is not already being boarded up prior to Election Day because Hollywood storeowners anticipate excessive exuberance on the part of ecstatic Biden voters.

“Joe Biden is heading to St. Paul, Minnesota, tomorrow. It will be the fullest travel day of his general election campaign, with stops now in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.”

Translation: Biden is going to lose Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

It’s fascinating to see the media frantically citing the overwhelming Fake Poll numbers, as if by repetition they can stave off the approaching reckoning. And yet, they are observably worried that all the polls are wrong.

As Election Day approaches and President Donald Trump continues to trail Joe Biden by high single digits both nationally and in key states, their respective bases are buzzing with either hope or dread that “the polls could be wrong again.”

In truth, public opinion polls are imperfect instruments, and there’s always bound to be some degree of error, especially given the widely varying quality of the nation’s pollsters. But Trump would probably need a larger polling miss than in 2016 to win re-election, and there’s no guarantee a systemic polling error this year would run in his favor….

Fundamentally, the current polling in the 2020 race is different from 2016 in three important ways.

First, Biden’s lead is larger and much more stable than Clinton’s was at this point. Second, there are far fewer undecided and third-party voters left to woo — reducing the chances of a late break toward one side.

And third, the scores of district and state-level polls conducted by the parties to make spending decisions in down-ballot races generally align with national polls showing Trump running behind his 2016 pace, including in key states. In 2016, these same polls had shown flashing red warning signs for Clinton, particularly in districts with lots of white working-class voters.

The spinning won’t stop until the Young Turks cry. Just for the record, let’s note the prediction by The Economist.

95{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3} Joe Biden 95{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3} 249-421

05{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3} Donald Trump 117-289

Trump winning the popular vote is really going to shatter them.

Amy Coney Barrett has been confirmed by the Senate as a U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 53-46. She may not be ideal, but she’s almost certain to be much, much better than the late, unlamented Ruth Bader Ginsberg.

Now the media is just getting high on its own supply:

Former Vice President Joe Biden has regained a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in Texas, after wooing more independents and Hispanics, according to a poll released Sunday by The Dallas Morning News and University of Texas at Tyler. Biden’s lead among likely voters is 48{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}-45{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}, within the poll’s margin of error….

“Texas remains a tossup because of the public’s attitudes toward President Trump,” said political scientist Mark Owens, who directed the poll.

I’m only posting this because I suspect it will be funny to compare it to the actual results. Meanwhile, 538 has actually bumped up Biden’s chances from 77 percent a month ago to 87 percent today.

Election night promises to be a lot of fun watching the pollsters dance.

“We’re in a situation where we have put together – and you guys did it for our admi … the president, Obama’s administration before this – we have put together, I think, the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics.”

– Joe Biden

Putting together the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in American history isn’t nothing. It probably isn’t compatible with U.S. law or the U.S. Constitution, but one really shouldn’t dismiss the historic accomplishment out of hand.

No wonder they’re keeping poor old Creepy Joe on such a short leash. At this point, I’m surprised they let him talk at all.

The God-Emperor’s reign will continue unabated. Below is a reader photo from last night’s Trump rally in Florida. Meanwhile, Creepy Joe can’t get 10 people to show up to see him. #Trumpslide2020

Joe Biden’s financial reports simply don’t add up:

Joe Biden’s personal finances — at least as he lists them publicly for voters — don’t add up.

The politician who reveled in the moniker “Middle Class Joe” carried a relatively modest portfolio during 47 years in public office. But he scored a $16 million-plus windfall after he left the Obama White House. That includes $11 million he and his wife Jill earned in 2017, mostly on book and speaking fees, $4.6 million in 2018 and $985,000 last year, according to tax returns he made public earlier in the election.

But when he filed a federal financial disclosure form earlier this year to run for president, the Bidens listed only assets of between $1.5 million and $3.2 million. And that invites the question: Where did the rest of the money go?

“I can guarantee you if I was auditing those forms, I’d have questions,” says Paul Miller, the owner of New York-based tax firm Miler & Company LLP. 

The corruption of the Biden crime family almost certainly exceeds that of famous crime families of the past. It’s intriguing to see how so many of the reportedly rich don’t actually have any money. Perhaps, like Rush Limbaugh having talent on loan from God, they only have money on loan from Satan.

Another reason to anticipate a Trump victory: when the President wins again, we’ll never have to pay any more attention to the pollsters:

Should Trump once again dispatch his Democratic challenger, the polling industry is finished, Republican pollster Frank Luntz told Fox News on Thursday. 

“Well, I hate to acknowledge it, because that’s my industry,” he told Fox anchor Bret Baier. “But the public will have no faith. No confidence. If Donald Trump surprises people… my profession is done.”

Luntz insists that his polling is accurate this time, and that Biden will win. However, undecided voters may be leaning toward Trump. As the two men faced off in the final presidential debate in Tennessee on Thursday night, Luntz organized a focus group of undecided voters. After the showdown, a majority of these voters were leaning toward backing Trump. They described him as “controlled,” “poised,” and “surprisingly presidential,” while Biden was thought of as “vague,” “elusive,” and “defensive.” 

If a Biden-friendly pollster, backed by his latest focus group, is publicly opening the door to a potential Trump victory, the election gurus may not be as confident in their figures as they let on.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver is another one of these gurus, and his predictions are taken seriously in Washington. Right now, Silver gives Biden an 87 percent chance of winning. Yet the nation’s premier pollster has also been hedging his bets. On the same day that he bumped Biden’s chances up to 87 percent, Silver took to Twitter to remind his followers that “Trump still does have a nontrivial chance.”

“There’s still some time left,” he continued. “Tipping-point state polls are closer than national polls, sometimes polls are wrong… and mail voting and court disputes create some additional uncertainties.”

The Economist’s G. Elliot Morris is similarly all-in on Biden, giving the Democrat a 92 percent chance of winning on November 3. Morris is confident in his prediction, overly so according to Silver. Yet even though Morris has declared the race “very probably” over for Trump, he couldn’t help but write an article explaining exactly how he may be wrong.

I expect both Luntz and Morris know perfectly well what is going to happen on November 3. Silver is the only one who is dumb enough to insist that his model is right and it is reality that has it wrong. Watch as the polls “unexpectedly” begin to “tighten” between now and then.