Tag: politics

Donald Trump’s campaign says it will make a “major announcement” later. Former director of national intelligence Ric Grenell, former Nevada attorney general Adam Laxalt, chairman of the American Conservative Union Matt Schlapp and Nevada GOP Chair Michael McDonald will host a press conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, at 11.30am EST.

I’m going to guess that it isn’t a concession.

UPDATE: Trump campaign plans Philadelphia press conference at 10:15 AM EST.

UPDATE: President Donald Trump announced his campaign will sue in battleground states that Joe Biden won. Trump taking action in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

It’s a good start. The Democrats were counting on him waving the white flag after being presented with their fait accompli, and that clearly isn’t happening. What we’re witnessing here is the transformation of the useless Republican Party into an action-oriented Trump Party. Donald Trump Jr. is openly mocking them for their defeatism now.

The total lack of action from virtually all of the “2024 GOP hopefuls” is pretty amazing. 

They have a perfect platform to show that they’re willing & able to fight but they will cower to the media mob instead. 

Don’t worry 

@realDonaldTrump will fight & they can watch as usual!

The President losing PA is not one of the Woes being Contemplated by Alexander Macris:

If you’ve been following the mainstream media, you’ve probably read that Trump intends to file a lawsuit in Pennsylvania to “stop counting votes.” Most likely, this has been presented as an outrageous evil, unjustifiable by any standards of common decency, and grossly unconstitutional. Is that really the case? Or is it more complex than that?

There will be a lawsuit, no doubt; and it will involve a lot of votes being thrown out. The plaintiff (Trump and/or the Republicans) will win, because Pennsylvania’s highest court has almost certainly violated the Constitution of the United States. That’s why, in the weeks ahead, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) is going to rule in favor of Trump….

In 2019, the PA legislature passed a law called Act 77 that permitted all voters to cast their ballots by mail but (in Justice Alito’s words) “unambiguously required that all mailed ballots be received by 8 p.m. on election day.” The exact text is 2019 Pa. Leg. Serv. Act 2019-77, which stated: “No absentee ballot under this subsection shall be counted which is received in the office of the county board of elections later than eight o’clock P.M. on the day of the primary or election.” I agree with Justice Alito: That is unambiguous.

Act 77 also provided that if this portion of the law was invalidated, that much of the rest of Act 77, including its liberalization of mail-in voting, would also be void. The exact text is: “Sections 1, 2, 3, 3.2, 4, 5, 5.1, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 12 of this act are nonseverable. If any provision of this act or its application to any person or circumstance is held invalid, the remaining provisions or applications of this act are void.”

To again put this into common English, the Pennsylvania legislature passed a law that said mail-in ballots had to arrive by 8PM on election day to be counted, and then said that if the Court over-ruled that law, the entire law that permitted mail-in ballots was invalid.

In the face of this clear text, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, by a vote of four to three, made the following decrees, summarized here by SCOTUS:

1. Mailed ballots don’t need to be received by a election day. Instead, ballots can be accepted if they are postmarked on or before election day and are received within three days thereafter. Note that this is directly contravenes the text above.
2. A mailed ballot with no postmark, or an illegible postmark, must be regarded as timely if it is received by that same date.

In doing so, PAs’ high court expressly acknowledged that “the statutory provision mandating receipt by election day was unambiguous” and conceded the law was “constitutional,” but still re-wrote the law because it thought it needed to do so in the face of a “natural disaster.” It justified its right to do so under the Free and Equal Elections Cause of the PA State Constitution.

It looks like a sound analysis, and furthermore, indicates that the Trump campaign understood and anticipated the shenanigans in Pennsylvania. This, along with the way that the usual shenanigans in Florida were shut down, suggests that the other shenanigans in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin were also anticipated.

Read the whole thing there.

Trust the plan. Carlos Osweda explains why there is no need to freak out over the Democrats’ electoral shenanigans:

1. Trump prepared for this exact fight.
2. Trump LOVES challenges.
3. The law is 100 percent on Trump’s side.
4. Trump has a million legal weapons to fight this.
5. This will lead to greater federal oversight of voting for national office. 

TRUMP WON.

The reason they pulled this amateurish horseshit is that Republicans never fought fraud before.

WHAT HAVE I TOLD YOU IS THE FATAL FLAW OF LEFTISM?

Leftists always overreach.

A few thoughts:

1. It really was amateurish. The combination of statistical improbabilities with the obvious nature of the vote production in precisely the counties I highlighted before the election – Milwaukee, Hennepin, and Wayne – made the fraud obvious. The only question is how Trump will prove it.
2. It’s clear that Trump saw this coming. Why else did he cancel his election night party before the voting started?
3. Trump loves to trap his opponents. Given the way this was telegraphed, is it more likely that he walked right into the situtation a) with a plan to use it or b) without a plan to use it?
4. It wasn’t just the states now being contested. The Hennepin County statistics are also historical outliers. There are almost certainly others.
5. Trump has conceded nothing, nor does he appear to be either rattled or upset.
6. Did Trump have negative coattails? How did Republicans hold the Senate and gain seats in the House if Biden actually received the most votes in U.S. history?
7. Never give up until the whistle blows.

We have claimed, for Electoral Vote purposes, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (which won’t allow legal observers) the State of Georgia, and the State of North Carolina, each one of which has a BIG Trump lead. Additionally, we hereby claim the State of Michigan if, in fact, there was a large number of secretly dumped ballots as has been widely reported! 

– Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

This, and not the election, is the real test of President Trump. In his Discourses, Machiavelli lamented how societies fail because good men refuse to do what needs to be done in order to save them. But it appears that Donald Trump is not going to be a good Republican, sell out his supporters, look the other way, and pretend that a significant part of the vote for his opponent was not fraudulent.

Broward County (M=67)

• Biden = 64.6{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a}

Miami-Dade County (M=67)

• Biden = 53.4{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a}

Philadelphia County (M=83)

• Biden = 73.3{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a} 76.2{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a}

Wayne County (M=67)

• Biden = 58.1{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a} 67.0{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a} 

Hennepin County (M=62)

• Biden = 70.7{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a}

Milwaukee County (M=67)

• Biden = 60.0{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a} 69.1{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a}

Mecklenburg County (M=64)

CURRENT VERDICT: early returns look VERY solidly pro-Trump. It’s all but over already. Note that we need to see OFFICIAL RETURNS from the counties confirming the statistical trends before anything can be called.

Quote of the Day: You’re not going to learn anything useful about the election outcome on here until 7pm, i.e. when they start counting votes. – Nate Silver, 538

Broward County (M=67)

2016:

• 1,179,189 registered
• 822,837 cast
• 71.8 percent turnout

Mecklenburg County (M=64)

We’ll start keeping track here. Please feel free to help in the comments. Interesting that Vermont is too early to call….

INDIANA

Last night’s Darkstream addressed the key counties that will provide insight concerning who has won the U.S. Presidential election:

The key counties are:

• Broward – FL
• Philadelphia – PA
• Wayne – MI
• Hennepin – MN
• Milwaukee – WI

And for an early glimpse into who will probably win the election, pay close attention to Mecklenburg County in NC. If Biden doesn’t get at least 64 percent there, he probably loses the election. On a related note, one viewer emailed to confirm one of the underlying theses about the Swing-Key system.

What you said about Broward County explains what I saw in 2000. It was clear very quickly that everything hinged on FL. I was paying close attention election night, with regular page refreshes, and I saw Bush’s lead increase from the low thousands early in the evening to a very solid 50K by around 2AM (PST). Gore was about to concede and Bush about to declare victory, when, suddenly, in a period of maybe 10 minutes, that lead shrank to around 1500 votes. It really blew my mind. 

You’re going to to need this to know what happened in a reasonable period of time, because Twitter is limiting to seven the number of outlets that are permitted to declare the winner.

First, let’s review the final mainstream perspective. The Swing States this time are Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, in that order.

FL:  Biden + 4. The final PoliticalIQ Battleground State poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a modest lead over President Trump in Florida. The poll, conducted October 28-30 by Scott Rasmussen, shows Biden winning 51% of the vote while Trump picks up 47%. Two percent (2%) have or will be voting for some other candidate. If Biden wins Florida, there is virtually no remaining path to a re-election victory for the President.

PA: Biden +7. Pennsylvania has emerged as the keystone state of the entire race for the White House. The final Monmouth University survey finds Biden at 51 percent and Trump at 44 percent among likely voters in a high-turnout scenario. That’s down from Biden’s 11-point lead in the same poll from last month. 

MI: Biden +8, 51-43

MN: Biden +9, 52-43

WI: Biden +8, 52-44

Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio are not swing states. Neither is North Carolina, although we’ll be tracking it as an early reporting signal.

Now, as I’ll be explaining on the Darkstream later tonight, each of these states is structured the same way, with one or two urban counties providing one-third of the entire Democratic vote, while the Republican vote is scattered over the rest of the state. To know what is going to happen in the state, all that is really required is to know what is going to happen in those six counties, namely, Broward, Miami-Dade, Philadephia, Wayne, Hennepin, and Milwaukee. Hence what I call my Swing-Key system, which is short for Swing State – Key County analysis.

At this point, the two counties I’ve examined in detail are the two Florida counties. Of the two, the Broward County information is a little more current, but both are reasonably up-to-date on the voter information. In Broward, the Democratic advantage in voter registration delta is 1.04 percent. In keeping with the general increase in registrations, this suggests a net increase of 18,448 Democratic votes in Broward County.

However, in Miami-Dade, the Republicans actually have the voter registration delta working in their favor. The Republican advantage is 5.61 percent, which suggests a net decrease of -3,495 Democratic votes in Miami-Dade County. 15,000 more Democratic votes from the two counties that provide more than one-quarter of all the Democratic votes in Florida simply isn’t going to be enough, given that Republican registrations are actually up throughout the state.

Since President Trump won Florida by 119,770 votes in 2016, these numbers indicate that he will retain Florida with relative ease despite what the polls say. This is just a metric, not a mathematical proof, and its chief utility is that it gives us an informed point of comparison by which we can interpret the results as they come in. If Biden can’t get more than 475,000 votes in Broward or 660,000 votes in Miami-Dade, or exceed 67 percent in both counties, he has virtually no chance of winning either Florida or the election.

We’ve officially reached CYA Season, as Nate Silver is beginning to change his tune despite insisting that Creepy Joe has a 90 percent chance of winning the U.S. presidential election:

Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It’s 5 points. It’s not a big early voting state, so a lot of votes have not yet been cast in Pennsylvania. Among the votes that were sent in by mail, there are some provisions about a naked ballot, a security envelope. That could make things more complicated. You could have the courts involved. You have some protests, looting in Philadelphia. There’s lots of stuff going on. Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn’t quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options. … But still, without Pennsylvania, then Biden becomes an underdog.

The reality is the Biden is going to lose PA, MI, WI, AZ, and NC, as one new poll is already indicating that President Trump will even win the popular vote.

The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between October 28 and October 30 and shows Trump with a one point lead over Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the national popular vote, 48 percent to 47 percent.  Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen receives two percent of the vote, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins receives one percent of the vote.

The poll also shows the president leading in the Electoral College by a margin of 326 to 212. On election day 2016, the president won 306 Electoral College votes to 232 for Hillary Clinton. The Constitution provides that a candidate must win a majority of the Electoral College votes cast–270 out of 538–to win the presidency.

According to Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll, Trump leads in all the states he won in 2016, and is poised to gain 20 additional Electoral College votes in three states Hillary Clinton won in 2016: Minnesota (10 Electoral College votes), Nevada (six Electoral College votes), and New Hampshire (four electoral college votes.)

Enjoy the Trumpslide. Don’t be surprised if the God-Emperor outperforms even these most recent and favorable predictions.