Tag: politics

If we can’t have it, nobody can

Jonah Goldberg pronounces time of death for the GOP:

Nominating Donald Trump will wreck the Republican party as we know it. Not nominating Trump will wreck the Republican party as we know it. The sooner everyone recognizes this fact, the better.

Denial has been Trump’s greatest ally. Republicans and commentators didn’t believe he would run. They didn’t believe he could be an attractive candidate to rational people, no matter how angry with “the establishment” voters said they were. They — which includes me — were wrong.

The denial lasted longer for some than others. Long after many observers had come to the realization that Trump was the front-runner, Jeb Bush’s super PAC, Right to Rise, believed Bush’s real rival was Marco Rubio. It spent $35 million trying to destroy Rubio before it dropped its first $25,000 attacking Trump.

Over the weekend, Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus showed the first public signs of acceptance about what’s in store for the party. He finally acknowledged that the Republican nominee was probably going to be determined on the convention floor in Cleveland.

La, the drama! This is just the butthurt talking. Jonah is still in modest denial. I’ll make three predictions:

  1. Donald Trump is going to acquire the necessary 1,237 delegates before the Republican National Convention
  2. Donald Trump is going to be the Republican candidate for president
  3. There will be no GOPe third-party candidate. The GOPe will, however reluctantly, fall in line behind Donald Trump.

I’m not saying every neocon will; Bill Kristol may well lose it and announce that he is supporting Benjamin Netanyahu for president, but once the big money guys realize that Trump is not only going to be the nominee, but beat Hillary Clinton handily, the small fry will obediently fall in line, however much they might grumble.

There are going to be more Islamic State attacks. Some of them may be in the USA. And every single one is going to drive more support to Trump. Remember, these guys have no principles. Once the Trump Train looks sufficiently inevitable, they’ll all be scrambling to avoid being the last on board.

Primaries: Arizona and Utah

This is to discuss the results of the Republican primaries in Arizona, Utah, and American Samoa. Decision Desk HQ has the live results as they are reported.

Trump is going to win Arizona, the only question is by how much. If he wins big, that’s one more nail in the coffin of the GOPe this year. And as I’ve said, I think he’s very nearly assured the 1,237 delegates required already.

Donald Trump speech to AIPAC

Good evening. I speak to you today as a lifelong supporter and true
friend of Israel. I am a newcomer to politics but not to backing the
Jewish state.

In late 2001, weeks after the attacks on New York City and Washington
– attacks perpetrated by Islamic fundamentalists, Mayor Giuliani
visited Israel to show solidarity with terror victims. I sent him in my
plane because I backed the mission 100%.

In Spring 2004, at the height of violence in the Gaza Strip, I was
the Grand Marshal of the 40th Salute to Israel Parade, the largest
single gathering in support of the Jewish state.

It was a very dangerous time for Israel and frankly for anyone
supporting Israel – many people turned down this honor –I did not, I
took the risk.

I didn’t come here tonight to pander to you about Israel. That’s what
politicians do: all talk, no action. I came here to speak to you about
where I stand on the future of American relations with our strategic
ally, our unbreakable friendship, and our cultural brother, the only
democracy in the Middle East, the State of Israel.

My number one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran.
I have been in business a long time. I know deal-making and let me tell
you, this deal is catastrophic – for America, for Israel, and for the
whole Middle East.

The problem here is fundamental. We have rewarded the world’s leading
state sponsor of terror with $150 billion and we received absolutely
nothing in return.


I’ve studied this issue in greater detail than almost anybody. The
biggest concern with the deal is not necessarily that Iran is going to
violate it, although it already has, the bigger problem is that they can
keep the terms and still get to the bomb by simply running out the
clock, and, of course, they keep the billions.

The deal doesn’t even require Iran to dismantle its military nuclear
capability! Yes, it places limits on its military nuclear program for
only a certain number of years. But when those restrictions expire, Iran
will have an industrial-size military nuclear capability ready to go,
and with zero provision for delay no matter how bad Iran’s behavior is.
When I am president, I will adopt a strategy that focuses on three
things when it comes to Iran.

First, we will stand up to Iran’s aggressive push to destabilize and
dominate the region. Iran is a very big problem and will continue to be,
but if I’m elected President, I know how to deal with trouble. Iran is a
problem in Iraq, a problem in Syria, a problem in Lebanon, a problem in
Yemen, and will be a very major problem for Saudi Arabia. Literally
every day, Iran provides more and better weapons to their puppet states.
Hezbollah in Lebanon has received sophisticated anti-ship weapons,
anti-aircraft weapons, and GPS systems on rockets. Now they’re in Syria
trying to establish another front against Israel from the Syrian side of
the Golan Heights.

In Gaza, Iran is supporting Hamas and Islamic Jihad – and in the West
Bank they are openly offering Palestinians $7,000 per terror attack and
$30,000 for every Palestinian terrorist’s home that’s been destroyed.

Iran is financing military forces throughout the Middle East and it
is absolutely indefensible that we handed them over $150 billion to
facilitate even more acts of terror.

Secondly, we will totally dismantle Iran’s global terror network.
Iran has seeded terror groups all over the world. During the last five
years, Iran has perpetrated terror attacks in 25 different countries on
five continents. They’ve got terror cells everywhere, including in the
western hemisphere very close to home. Iran is the biggest sponsor of
terrorism around the world and we will work to dismantle that reach.

Third, at the very least, we must hold Iran accountable by
restructuring the terms of the previous deal. Iran has already – since
the deal is in place – test-fired ballistic missiles three times. Those
ballistic missiles, with a range of 1,250 miles, were designed to
intimidate not only Israel, which is only 600 miles away but also
intended to frighten Europe, and, someday, the United States.

Do you want to hear something really shocking? As many of the great
people in this room know, painted on those missiles – in both Hebrew and
Farsi – were the words “Israel must be wiped off the face of the
earth.”

What kind of demented minds write that in Hebrew? And here’s another
twisted part – testing these missiles does not even violate the horrible
deal that we made!

The deal is silent on test missiles but those tests DO violate UN
Security Council Resolutions. The problem is, no one has done anything
about it. Which brings me to my next point – the utter weakness and
incompetence of the United Nations.

The United Nations is not a friend of democracy. It’s not a friend to
freedom. It’s not a friend even to the United States of America, where
as all know, it has its home. And it surely isn’t a friend to Israel.

With President Obama in his final year, discussions have been
swirling about an attempt to bring a security council resolution on the
terms of an eventual agreement between Israel and Palestine. Let me be
clear: An agreement imposed by the UN would be a total and complete
disaster. The United States must oppose this resolution and use the
power of our veto. Why? Because that’s not how you make a deal.

Deals are made when parties come to the table and negotiate. Each
side must give up something it values in exchange for something it
requires. A deal that imposes conditions on Israel and the Palestinian
Authority will do nothing to bring peace. It will only further
delegitimize Israel and it would reward Palestinian terrorism, because
every day they are stabbing Israelis – and even Americans.

Just last week, American Taylor Allen Force, a West Point grad who
served in Iraq and Afghanistan, was murdered in the street by a
knife-wielding Palestinian. You don’t reward that behavior, you confront
it!

It’s not up the United Nations to impose a solution. The parties must
negotiate a resolution themselves. The United States can be useful as a
facilitator of negotiations, but no one should be telling Israel it
must abide by some agreement made by others thousands of miles away that
don’t even really know what’s happening.

When I’m president, believe me, I will veto any attempt by the UN to
impose its will on the Jewish state. You see, I know about deal-making –
that’s what I do. I wrote The Art of the Deal, one of the all-time
best-selling books about deals and deal making. To make a great deal,
you need two willing participants.

We know Israel is willing to deal. Israel has been trying to sit down
at the negotiating table, without pre-conditions, for years. You had
Camp David in 2000, where Prime Minister Barak made an incredible offer –
maybe even too generous. Arafat rejected it.

In 2008, Prime Minister Olmert made an equally generous offer. The
Palestinian Authority rejected it. Then John Kerry tried to come up with
a framework and Abbas didn’t even respond, not even to the Secretary of
State of the United States of America!

When I become President, the days of treating Israel like a
second-class citizen will end on Day One. I will meet with Prime
Minister Netanyahu immediately. I have known him for many years and we
will be able to work closely together to help bring stability and peace
to Israel and to the entire region.

Meanwhile, every single day, you have rampant incitement and children
being taught to hate Israel and hate the Jews. When you live in a
society where the firefighters are the hero’s little kids want to be
firefighters.

When you live in a society where athletes and movie stars are heroes,
little kids want to be athletes and movie stars. In Palestinian
society, the heroes are those who murder Jews – we can’t let this
continue. You cannot achieve peace if terrorists are treated as martyrs.
Glorifying terrorists is a tremendous barrier to peace.

In Palestinian textbooks and mosques, you’ve got a culture of hatred
that has been fermenting there for years, and if we want to achieve
peace, they’ve got to end this indoctrination of hatred. There is no
moral equivalency. Israel does not name public squares after terrorists.
Israel does not pay its children to stab random Palestinians.

You see, what President Obama gets wrong about deal making is that he
constantly applies pressure to our friends and rewards our enemies.
That pattern, practiced by the President and his administration,
including former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, has repeated
itself over and over and has done nothing but embolden those who hate
America. We saw that with releasing $150 billion to Iran in the hope
that they would magically join the world community – It’s the same with
Israel and Palestine.

President Obama thinks that applying pressure to Israel will force
the issue, but it’s precisely the opposite. Already, half the population
of Palestine has been taken over by the Palestinian ISIS in Hamas, and
the other half refuses to confront the first half, so it’s a very
difficult situation but when the United States stands with Israel, the
chances of peace actually rise. That’s what will happen when I’m
president.

We will move the American embassy to the eternal capital of the
Jewish people, Jerusalem – and we will send a clear signal that there is
no daylight between America and our most reliable ally, the state of
Israel.

The Palestinians must come to the table knowing that the bond between
the United States and Israel is unbreakable. They must come to the
table willing and able to stop the terror being committed on a daily
basis against Israel and they must come to the table willing to accept
that Israel is a Jewish State and it will forever exist as a Jewish
State.

Thank you very much, its been a great honor to be with you.

——————–

My comment: This is better than I would have expected, not as good as I would have hoped. It is not a ritual genuflection, but a practical acknowledgement of the current realities. The deal with Iran is ridiculous. Attacking the UN is the right thing to do and may be a harbinger of more positive developments on that front. Moving the embassy is irrelevant, but a nice gesture.

At no point is there any indication that he is inclined to wage Israel’s wars for them as the previous two presidents have done, and that is the main thing.

Trump declares noninterventionist foreign policy

I realize many are skeptical that Trump is going to do anything that he says he is going to do. But look at the risks the man is taking. Look at the limbs he is willing to stroll confidently out upon. This is genuinely remarkable in American politics:

Donald Trump outlined an unabashadly noninterventionist approach to world affairs Monday, telling The Washington Post’s editorial board that he questions the need for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which has formed the backbone of Western security policies since the Cold War.

The meeting at The Post covered a range of issues, including media libel laws, violence at his rallies, climate change, the NATO and the U.S. presence in Asia.

Speaking ahead of a major address on foreign policy later Monday in front of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Trump said he advocates an aggressive U.S. posture in the world with a light footprint. In spite of unrest abroad, especially in the Middle East, Trump said the United States must look inward and steer its resources toward rebuilding domestic infrastructure.

“I do think it’s a different world today, and I don’t think we should be nation-building anymore,” Trump said. “I think it’s proven not to work, and we have a different country than we did then. We have $19 trillion in debt. We’re sitting, probably, on a bubble. And it’s a bubble that if it breaks, it’s going to be very nasty. I just think we have to rebuild our country.”

He added: “I watched as we built schools in Iraq and they’re blown up. We build another one, we get blown up. We rebuild it three times and yet we can’t build a school in Brooklyn. We have no money for education because we can’t build in our own country. At what point do you say, ‘Hey, we have to take care of ourselves?’ So, I know the outer world exists and I’ll be very cognizant of that. But at the same time, our country is disintegrating, large sections of it, especially the inner cities.”

Granted, George Bush ran for office on “a humble foreign policy” and we all know how that turned out. But at least we know he’s not going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. It should be very interesting to hear what he has to say to AIPAC later today. I’m going to guess it won’t be the ritual genuflection that is customary for Republican candidates.

I mean, he’s openly talking about shutting down NATO. This is serious stuff.

UPDATE: Trump speech at AIPAC.

The left-wing mind

An explanation of it from a red diaper baby now in recovery:

For the millions raised as leftists, it is not an ideology; it is a culture. Since childhood, they have lived and breathed it every day in the home. They know nothing else. Like any culture, it is a way of speaking, thinking and acting, with its own narratives and rituals. Narratives are held sacred, repeated, reinforced and, over time, added to. That which challenges sacred narratives, even reality itself, is met with confusion and hostility. As with any aggressive, intolerant culture, if you enter it, it enters you.

Contrary to opinion, leftism isn’t just about hate. Leftists are more complex than that. From my time as a red diaper leftist, I can tell you that a whole range of emotions are involved. Hate, anger, fear, bitterness, jealousy, envy, rage, greed, pride, smugness and paranoia (not technically an emotion, but it is widespread among leftists).

With such a parade of negative emotions, it is no surprise that so many leftists suffer from chronic depression, often from a young age. Even if they lose the anger, they still retain the attitude: that the government must fix everyone’s problems, regardless of cost and that there is an enormous right-wing conspiracy that is just around the corner.

The victim narrative of the Left is very infectious. You are always the victim and you are always owed something. The wealthy are always evil, while you are always good and wholesome. Converts are often more intense than those born into it. My father, raised a leftist, eventually mellowed and began to question some leftist beliefs. My mother, not raised a leftist, but having become one, never mellowed.

Leftism encourages and is driven by the most negative, damaging
emotions. It harnesses together childish emotions and paranoid thought
processes. Its narratives are a filter that reality has to try to
struggle through, often failing. The child-like thinking
solves all problems without pesky details and facts interfering, leading
to delusions of intellectual brilliance.

It’s an interesting glimpse into what, for me, is an entirely alien mindset. I find it easier to understand those from very foreign cultures, including the English, the Italians, and even the Japanese, than I do a left-wing 2.0 American. While I correctly noted their fixation on narratives and the childish nature of their magical thinking, I was always mystified by their delusions of intellectual brilliance.

I put it down to their education and credential fetishes, but the author makes clear their belief in their intelligence is actually due to the fact that they are so deluded, they believe they are actually producing the solution to all the various problems they encounter by virtue of repeating their magic mantra: more government spending.

Of course, their concept of government is childish too; it is essentially a magic combination of a 365-day Santa Claus with a friendly Sunday School god whose got the whole world in his hands.

This is useful, as it provides several clues for rhetorical triggers that should prove devastating. It also explains why it is not merely my high intelligence, but my willingness to openly flaunt it, that reliably enrages them. This confirms my belief that if you assume emotional projection when attacked by a rhetoric speaker, you’ll be given the key to dismantle the attacker’s psyche.

Mailvox: an epiphany

A reader has a realization:

A long time ago, there was a comfortable Establishment, which ran the roost via handshakes and insider back-scratching. The Right People got the right rewards, and all was good for the  Establishment

Then a bold, brash newbie shows up, and, despite pissing off the establishment by being exceptionally politically incorrect, becomes more and more successful until the Establishment decides that Steps Must Be Taken, and the Newbie must be destroyed. They’re destroying the accepted procedure, and they don’t care. . .

The question: Who am I talking about: The Puppies. . . .or Donald Trump ??

I’ve realized it’s the SAME STORY, and the ‪#‎NoTrumpers are just the PuppyKickers in a different venue.  How is gaming the convention rules any different from E Pluribus Hugo?

This is why the Puppinette referred to me as “the Donald Trump of science fiction”, which is, of course, a grand compliment indeed. But in both cases, we are the change that the establishment does not want to see.

The rise of Channel Alt Right

First, the Kickstarter for Silenced is winding down. You only have four more hours to back it. Back Silenced here. I did. And I suspect that you’re going to want to be able to say you did too.

Second,  Mike Cernovich explains why the media is losing its undeclared, but vicious war on the Alt Right:

Why has the mainstream media and especially conservative pundits
projected their rage onto Donald Trump and his supporters? Pundits are
fighting hard because there’s a war going on. No one saw this war. Well,
almost no one…

This election has been about more than Trump.
This is a war over the future of the media.

Pundits are poor in money and rich and status. Most of them live off
of sugar daddies to pay their bills, and money does not drive pundits.

Pundits are status obsessed. Being seen as the right kind of person
is their only goal in life. They live and die on shame…the feeling that
they do or do not belong to the proper social class.

Supposed journalists and pundits have accumulated considerable social
status and power. With the power of an article, journalists have forced
the most powerful politicians and richest chief executives to quit
their jobs.

One does not lose power without a fight.

Third, on the basis of the new polls that show Trump +52 in New York, +12 in Arizona, and +16 in California (the latter is less credible since Rubio is included, but he’s only got 10 points), it is safe to conclude that Donald Trump has effectively won the Republican nomination.

He’s still got to close it out, but at this point, it would be a major surprise if he didn’t. He’s clearly increasing his lead over Cruz at this point.

UPDATE: Holy cats, nice work, everyone. It was at 58K when I last noticed. It finished with 838 backers pledging $71,060 to bring SILENCED to life. Well done.

I’ve spoken to Mike about this, and I don’t think he’d mind me telling you that the seeds being planted here are going to result in a lot more than just a single documentary film. The man has a vision and it is one worth supporting.

A+ ad and the linguistic killshot

Scott Adams explains how Trump is cutting out Hillary’s legs already:

On a related topic, many of you asked my opinion on Trump’s anti-Clinton ad that shows Hillary Clinton barking like a dog and Putin laughing. I give the ad an A+ for persuasion. It was funny and doesn’t take itself too seriously, but at the same time it appealed to our irrational minds just as Trump intends. Your rational mind knows that Clinton’s “barking” has nothing to do with anything. But your irrational mind sees Putin and ISIS looking powerful on the video while Clinton barks like a chihuahua.

The humor in the ad is what makes it work. Without the humor it would look like a lame comparison. And people equate a good sense of humor with high intelligence, whether or not that is true. The ad leaves us feeling that Trump is funny-smart and Clinton is ridiculous.

You know who wasn’t funny? Hitler, that’s who. Every time Trump makes us laugh he chips away at the Hitler meme that has been dogging him. So it works on a branding level too.

I also see the ad as Trump’s way of assuring everyone who has, over the years, seen one Republican after another refuse to put up a real fight, especially when a woman is on the other side: “Don’t worry, I got this.”

Fox Republican debate canceled

Donald Trump is making both Fox News and the RNC his bitches. Like a boss:

Monday’s Republican presidential primary debate has been canceled after GOP front-runner Donald Trump declined to participate, citing a scheduling conflict.

“On Feb. 20, the Republican National Committee announced that a GOP presidential primary debate would be held on March 21 in Salt Lake City. They offered that debate to Fox News Channel to host, provided there were enough candidates actively campaigning,” Fox News Executive Vice President Michael Clemente said in a statement.

“This morning, Donald Trump announced he would not be participating in the debate. Shortly afterward, John Kasich’s campaign announced that without Trump at the debate, Kasich would not participate. Ted Cruz has expressed a willingness to debate Trump or Kasich — or both. But obviously, there needs to be more than one participant. So the Salt Lake City debate is cancelled,” Clemente said.

So much for the idea of a brokered convention. At this rate, if Donald Trump decides not to show up for the Republican National Convention, they’ll cancel that too.

Why Trump will crush Hillary

Scott Adams explains the situation from the Master Persuader perspective:

Trump could frame Clinton as anti-male without ever saying “anti-male.” The exact words matter less than the concept. But the words do need to be catchy in some way, so everyone wants to repeat them.

My gut feeling is that men will abandon Clinton every day from now until November unless Trump murders a baby on live television. Otherwise, I think Trump wins easily with men.

But women are the interesting wild card in this scenario. For the sake of discussion, let’s say half of Clinton’s female supporters have a grudge against men. That seems about right if you consider all the attention on gender discrimination. Now add to that all the abusive relationships women have experienced, both personally and professionally, and you have plenty of reasons for women to be anti-male, even if only subconsciously.

But the hypothetical half of women that do not have a grudge against men would run like the wind to avoid being labelled anti-male. It goes to identity. And identity is always the strongest level of persuasion. The only way to beat it is with dirty tricks or a stronger identity play.

Trump is well on his way to owning the identities of American, Alpha Males, and Women Who Like Alpha Males. Clinton is well on her way to owning the identities of angry women, beta males, immigrants, and disenfranchised minorities.

If this were poker, which hand looks stronger to you for a national election?

I think Trump will crush Hillary myself, but not based on any particular communication tactics. Hillary is a ridiculously corrupt member of a corrupt elite who is a terrible candidate almost entirely dependent upon a) the Clinton machine clearing the path for her and b) her opponents refusing to hit her because she’s a girl. So to speak.

Trump knows how the machines work and he’s not even remotely hesitant to launch both rhetorical and dialectical attacks on anyone. Hillary has a glass jaw, she doesn’t handle criticism well, and I expect she would not only fold, but collapse completely, before the kind of pressure Trump would bring to bear.