The predictive model

As William S. Lind predicted it would in his book ON WAR, 4GW has arrived in America and is targeting the police. Because the police have militarized and lost their moral authority, they are now deemed legitimate enemy targets by a growing number of armed individuals.
– December 20, 2014

Demilitarization is without question in the material interests of the police as well.  They have started a war of escalation and attrition that they cannot possibly win…. It does not take a master logician to observe that all the “whatever I need to do to get home safe” mentality guarantees is that abusive police homes will soon be unsafe.  And the growing Hispanic population means that there will likely be more Latin American-style infiltration, assassination, and terror directed at the lower levels of law enforcement. 
– July 20, 2013

I am not at all surprised that the police are now being targeted for murder due to nothing more than their membership in the Badge Gang. And there isn’t a soul in the country who can reasonably argue that the police haven’t collectively begged for such targeting, considering how many innocent Americans they have killed with shameless impunity in the last two decades…. Some protest, some shoot. If the police don’t abandon their present
path of violence and start prosecuting police killers instead of
protecting them, they can expect more of the latter and less of the

– May 31, 2011

No doubt some readers will have the usual hissy fit that my utter lack
of regard for the police means that I’m some kind of liberal hippy. But
for those who are inclined to believe that, I’d merely ask: what is so
conservative, what is so very freedom-loving, about a police state? When
the police put down the machine guns, stop dressing like Darth Vader in
a Wehrmacht-style helmet and start behaving politely again instead of
knocking down doors and shooting pets, I’ll be happy to reconsider the

– February 21, 2007

In the aftermath of the Dallas police shooting, it is understandable that many Americans are shocked, scared, and upset. The post-Civil Rights Act America has not turned out to be the society they thought it was, indeed, it is becoming increasingly obvious that those terrible racist Southern segregationists were correct all along. Targeted assassinations of authority figures are not a sign of a stable, well-ordered society.

But I have neither patience nor sympathy for those who have been emailing, commenting, and Tweeting to say that they are shocked by my comments with regards to Dallas and the overly militarized US police. I have said nothing I have not said many times before. My position has not changed one iota on the subject for over a decade. I have repeatedly predicted such events would take place, nor am I alone in that, as William S. Lind repeatedly warned about it as a consequence of 4GW coming to America in his book of collected columns, On War.

I am neither shocked nor surprised that the events I predicted are taking place, any more than I am surprised that the post-1965 demographic changes have led to a less intelligent, less prosperous, and less stable country.

So, you’ll have to excuse me if I’m not inclined to pay any attention to the emotionally incontinent ravings of people who are not only surprised, but observably shocked by what recently took place in Dallas. I told you this was going to happen and I even told you why. If you didn’t do the same, if you can’t point to ten years of correct predictions, then I suggest that you learn to shut up and listen when more perspicacious individuals are explaining the situation to you. Ask questions if you don’t understand something. But regardless, understand that your emotional reaction in the heat of the moment is simply not as relevant as the cold and logical analysis of those who have been thinking calmly about the subject for more than ten years.

Now, as for the binary-thinking idiots who think if you don’t support the cops means you are a murderous BLM-supporting Black Panther, let me explain something to you. Nothing the police do – nothing – is going to turn America’s blacks into whites. They cannot keep a nonexistent peace. History clearly teaches there are four ways to permanently resolve the current situation: amalgamation, segregation, deportation, and elimination.

Which of those do you support? If you don’t support one of them, you’re not serious and your opinion doesn’t count. Yes, they’re all terrible options. Yes, they’re all ugly and awful and horrific. So is history.

BLM is the proximate cause. But I didn’t predict that the police would become targets because I knew, back in 2007, that BLM would one day come to be. I predicted it because the police abandoned the moral authority that rendered them untouchable, and which protected them much better than any body armor, bigger guns, or “shoot when scared” rules of engagement.

If you want to virtue-signal or strike dramatic poses about how you’ll never read this blog again or buy any of my books, that’s fine. No one is going to try to convince you otherwise. But you should understand that it is completely apparent to everyone here that you were never paying very much attention in the first place.

The solution to police violence in America

I think I have stumbled upon the answer to US police committing unjustifiable homicides: have the FBI train them:

The F.B.I. Deemed Agents Faultless in 150 Shootings

After contradictory stories emerged about an F.B.I. agent’s killing last month of a Chechen man in Orlando, Fla., who was being questioned over ties to the Boston Marathon bombing suspects, the bureau reassured the public that it would clear up the murky episode.

“The F.B.I. takes very seriously any shooting incidents involving our agents, and as such we have an effective, time-tested process for addressing them internally,” a bureau spokesman said.

But if such internal investigations are time-tested, their outcomes are also predictable: from 1993 to early 2011, F.B.I. agents fatally shot about 70 “subjects” and wounded about 80 others — and every one of those episodes was deemed justified, according to interviews and internal F.B.I. records obtained by The New York Times through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit.

The last two years have followed the same pattern: an F.B.I. spokesman said that since 2011, there had been no findings of improper intentional shootings.

Considering its spotless record, I can only conclude that the FBI’s much higher standard of training is responsible for its agents incredible inability to avoid ever making a mistake when shooting citizens. I therefore recommend that its budget be enlarged sufficiently to permit all US state and local police to undergo rigorous FBI training.

This would not only save American lives and increase police professionalism, but also reduce the level of outrage in America evinced by Black Lives Matter and other groups of concerned citizens.

Mailvox: a police officer’s perspective

A former police officer writes in response to my post on the Dallas police shootings:

The short:

Good article and overall I agree with it.

The long:

In regards to the “Us Vs Them” mentality; unfortunately, it was ingrained in us from the beginning at the academy and if you do not guard against it you will find yourself moving in that direction after a short time working as a police officer.

Tribe was ingrained in us from comments such as “there are two kinds of people, those in jail and those that should be.”  “In God we trust all others we run through NCIC”.  NCIC is the national records database.

As you started working something happened to me that I was not prepared for one of those unintended consequences, everybody lied to you.  And I mean everybody, about everything.  It did not take long where you fell into “my tribe” mode.  When you make the call that you need help and all your tribe show up – that is a powerful feeling and reinforces, good or bad, my tribe.

Military affectation.  True.  When I joined, Desert Storm had just ended and the DOD was giving away the store.

As far as these current rash of shootings caught on camera – people do not want to see the bad side.  I believe that most people think that when a shooting goes down it is “Hollywood”.  Good vs Evil – clean – sanitized.  One thing people do not understand is how fast events can turn.  And I have been in situations where things went from mild or this aint’ so bad to someone did or was going to die in milliseconds.  People can not even begin to understand the violence that can happen in situations.  This is not an excuse I just offer and explanation into the mindset.

And if I can use NAPALT.  I only recall one instance of behavior that was wrong coming from a police officer.  I had a prisoner in cuffs and this officer came up to the prisoner and threatened to “kick his ass”.  If this officer would have laid a hand on my prisoner I would have protected my prisoner.  It did not get that far. Then again, I was being interviewed for the county sheriff’s department and was asked if I would take revenge on a person in cuffs if they had resisted arrest. I told her no, once cuffs are on and there is no resistance there is no reason. To this day I do not know if the look she gave me was one of disbelief or “this guy won’t fit in with us because that is how we roll”.

I agree with your statement “that being scared is insufficient justification for shooting a member of the public” and “start holding killer cops fully accountable for their actions”.  However, just because someone is unarmed does not mean they are not a danger.  In one situation I had a guy reach for a gun and as I was getting ready to shoot I saw he was reaching for a Maglite flashlight.  This guy’s intention was Suicide by Cop.  My intention was to save my life and my partner’s life. Unfortunately, my partner was shot and killed 6 months later.  He stopped an unarmed man, the man started fighting with him, took his gun, and killed him with it.

People see these videos and project their feelings, fears, biases into them.  Once the evidence starts to come out the story we end up with is usually different from what we began with.

As I mentioned in my response to him, my opinion is largely informed by my personal acquaintance with police officers in several countries. I get along quite well with cops, in fact, at a recent get-together I was the only male non-cop there. I’ve had cops for sparring partners and weightlifting partners and friends.

But that doesn’t make me blind to the institutional and structural problems with the police in America. Nor does it mean that the lessons of 4GW which Mr.  Lind and LtCol Thiele teach in 4GW Handbook don’t apply to them. Ironically, one of those lessons is that an occupying military should behave more like traditional street cops, while what we’re seeing is the traditional street cops being trained to behave more like an occupying military.

Policing is a serious and important societal role and it ought to be treated as such. Police officers should be valued and respected, but they, in turn, must always behave in a respectable manner. They should never be deemed above the law or unaccountable, to the contrary, they should be held more accountable for their actions than the average untrained individual.

And no free man should ever descend to licking a boot or a badge.

And if you want to know what a badge-licker looks like, this is it:

John Sanders ‏@Platniumblum
@voxday outed himself as a closeted SJW. Blacks have no agency, no responsibility. The cops had it coming. #Dallas #disavowBLM

So virtuous! I expect he’s preening in anticipation of all the likes and retweets from noble police officers ever so grateful for his support.

4GW in Dallas

11 police shot at Black Lives Matter in Dallas:

Eleven police officers were shot ambush-style, including five fatally, in Dallas Thursday night by at least two snipers, amid a protest against the recent police shootings of two black men, Alton Sterling in Louisiana, and Philando Castile in Minnesota, according to the Dallas Police.

The condition of the six wounded officers remains unknown. One civilian was also injured.

Officials said the gunmen aimed to kill as many officers as possible.

U.S. police have had this sort of response coming for a long time. Spacebunny and I were just talking yesterday about the shooting in Falcon Heights, which is very close to where we used to spend our Friday nights wandering the stacks at the Barnes & Noble, and how the police are never held accountable for lethally shooting people.

As Spacebunny tweeted:

  • I called Dallas last week.  Not in Dallas, but the retaliation. 
  • They created the climate by constantly and systematically protecting their own.
  • Everyone should be held accountable for their mistakes.  Especially when it costs someone their life.
  • If you don’t fix the general problem of cops literally getting away with murder, people will be sniping them all over. 
  • The problem is very obviously systemic. Everyone knows nothing is going to happen to a cop who kills someone

As of November, 1024 people were killed by police in 2015, 204 of them unarmed. For all that the police almost uniformly claimed to have been fearing for their lives, only 34 police were shot and killed during the same period. The public may be collectively stupid, but they’re not incapable of recognizing that statistical imbalance or that the police are trained to lie, obfuscate, and pretend that they are in danger when they are not.

Unless and until the police give up their military-style affectations, “us vs them” mentality, and most of all, their legal unaccountability, they’re going to find themselves fighting a war against the American people. And it is a war they simply cannot win.

What happened in Dallas may be shocking, but it isn’t even remotely surprising. Many people have seen it coming; what will likely prove the most surprising aspect of this incident is how many people will remain utterly unsympathetic to the Dallas police and their bereaved families. The police may consider themselves above the law, but they are not beyond the reach of an increasingly outraged public.

Is it a tragedy? Of course. Even worse, it is an unnecessary one. Did these specific police officers deserve to die? Almost certainly not. But no amount of moral posturing or striking ferocious pro-police poses is going to change the fact that the only way to avoid more attacks like this is for the police departments of America to stop pretending that being scared is sufficient justification for shooting a member of the public and start holding their killer cops fully accountable for their actions every single time an unarmed or non-aggressive person is shot.

The present situation is not one that any sane individual would celebrate, but it is one that many, including me, have been predicting for a long time. I’m only surprised that it didn’t happen sooner, especially in light of how many innocent military veterans have been shot and killed by police in recent years.

This is the heart of the problem. BLM may be the proximate cause, but until the causal problem of a lack of police accountability is addressed, the situation is only going to get worse.

UPDATE: “The suspect stated he wanted to kill white people – especially white officers.” – #Dallas Police Chief David Brown

As Bill Lind writes, 4GW is nothing if not messy. Forget your binary lines and single-cause simplicities.

A few good apples

Even the police are sickened by what “law enforcement” has become. M-Zed shares an email he received recently from a policeman.

You’ve mentioned cops shooting dogs, and there are a lot of videos about it. My department’s response team has specific instructions about that.

It is likely for a dog to be a threat, especially on a drug raid. They like keeping pit bulls and others, sometimes several of them, to use against cops as both attackers, alarms, and decoys.

If there’s a dog on those raids, our guys will shoot it on sight, because it might be violent, and will probably get in the way.

Even if it’s not a violent encounter, dogs don’t comprehend what people are doing, or instructions, and get in the way or turn defensive.

The lead officer also said basically that dogs are legally property, and it’s better to shoot a dog than a person. If you shoot the dog right off the bat, it makes it clear you’re willing to use force, and will have to less often. You create a psychological position of strength.

I don’t know what to suggest other than to not have a dog, and be very compliant in any encounter with law enforcement. As they said at the Academy, “If you want people to always be happy to see you, be a firefighter.”

Most guys here like intimidation, and like the master/serf relationship.They joke about the women they make cry and the men who get very meek. Especially vets. If they can intimidate a guy with a USMC plate, it’s like Christmas.

I haven’t shot a dog and won’t unless I have to because the dog attacks me and I can’t beat it off with a baton.

I used to love this job. Now, I’m looking forward to retirement and doing something else.

The US police are increasingly made up of cowards and bullies who don’t have the brains or the steel to succeed in the military. They love dressing up like soldiers and pretending they are soldiers, but they turn into the biggest cowards in the world the moment that a dog barks at them. There is a reason that historical wargames assign to police units the lowest level of morale.

They hide behind their badges and strut and swagger, but their true nature is revealed the moment that anyone dares to shoot back at them. Then, they’re suddenly aware of the fact that they are completely outnumbered and their very existence depends upon the goodwill of the public they despise.

The thing is, most of them know they are inferior. That’s why they get off on trying to humiliate and lord it over their betters. Self-appointed defense attorneys for the police always like to claim that police crimes are only committed by “a few bad apples”, but it increasingly sounds as if the problem is now inherent to the occupation, and that there are fewer and fewer “good apples” these days.

As for dogs, police should never shoot them except in the case of extreme emergency. They cannot reasonably claim they are in fear for their lives. And if they are going to claim the license to shoot the public’s dogs at will, the public should have the legal right to freely kill police dogs whenever they encounter them without penalty.

Just to create a psychological position of strength, you understand.

Chickenhawks go where the chickens are

Never, ever trust any man who actively prefers the company of children to adults. And just as psychiatrists are all crazy, be aware that more than a few of those who are publicly dedicated to the fight against child abuse have an unhealthy interest in it.

A Manassas City police detective, who was the lead investigator in a controversial teen “sexting” case last year, shot and killed himself outside his home Tuesday morning as police tried to arrest him for allegedly molesting two boys he met while coaching youth hockey in Prince William County.

David E. Abbott Jr., 39, was a member of the Northern Virginia-Washington D.C. Internet Crimes Against Children Task Force and had been an officer on the Manassas City force for 14 years. In his spare time he coached 13- and 14-year-old boys in travel hockey for the Potomac Patriots program at the Prince William Ice Center in Woodbridge, club officials said. When Prince William police learned Monday of the allegations of improper contact by Abbott over a period of years, they moved quickly.

Police said they learned that Abbott had sent inappropriate text messages and emails to a 13-year-old boy he met through the hockey program. By phone and social media, Abbott had been asking the boy for sex acts for more than two years, county police said.

Detectives then learned of a second potential victim, a boy who was 13 and was also part of the Patriots hockey club in 2008 when Abbott began sending him inappropriate messages, police said. Early Tuesday, Prince William police obtained a search warrant for Abbott’s townhouse on Senea Drive in Gainesville, where he lived with his mother. Police also obtained four felony arrest warrants — two counts of indecent liberties by a custodian and two counts of use of a communication device to solicit a sexual offense.

I spent a few years coaching scuola calcio; for the most part, the coaches at that level are young players on the first team who spend two or three years doing it, then move up the ranks. But there are a few old guys who never move on, and I got a creepy vibe from one of them in particular.

If I was a police chief, I would pay very close attention to any officer in a sex crimes unit who spent his free time volunteering to be around children. You can’t expect every wolf to look like a wolf; some of them are very good at mimicking the appearance of a sheep dog.


Let women save themselves, noble sir

This one is for all the Deltas and Gammas out there, who really need to grasp this simple fact: you don’t save women. You just don’t do it. The fact that a woman is in need of saving is, in fact, a serious disqualification, and you should understand that your desire to save her is intrinsically predatory in nature. It is preying upon the weak at a level to which not even the pick-up artists you hate and envy will descend.

And in any event, to paraphrase Cavour, the ingratitude of woman will astonish the world.

Even though I’d worked with Carla for over a year I really didn’t know her that well and that was the reason for my apprehension and not that I had just come out of a marriage that started much the same way.

But Carla knew exactly how to kill that apprehension and trigger that oh-so-useful male provider instinct by upping the ante:

One Monday morning, Carla was absent from work. She hadn’t called or texted since Saturday night so I was on edge wondering if another man had her attention now.

Finally, around lunch time I get a frantic call from her. She tearfully tells me her boyfriend kicked her out on Sunday, threw all of her and her son’s stuff out on the lawn and that she was at her sister’s place.

I told her I was relieved that she at least had a place to stay. But Carla turned up the heat just a few more degrees by telling me that her sister’s boyfriend told her she could only stay for a week and after that he’d take her to a shelter…

…and that was all I needed to hear. I got her sister’s address, told my boss I was taking the rest of the day off, jumped in my car, and raced over to rescue my fair maiden with my cape flapping in the wind.

I was so excited about how lucky I was to get a second chance to rescue a woman it was pathetic. I was actually thinking to myself “I’m gonna do it right this time” on my way over to get her.

After all was said and done, I had rented her a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom house with a fenced in back yard for her dog near downtown. I paid the deposit and first month’s rent, turned on her electric and cable, all in my name. I even rented a U-Haul and moved her shit into her new place (with the help of her sister’s boyfriend).

Guess how that story ended? Dr. Dre was right.

Police vs media SJW

It’s hard to know who to believe when you’re dealing with two sets of known liars. But the fact that the police were simply able to produce the recording is sufficient evidence of Ted Rall having exaggerated his experience with the LAPD without even needing to listen to it. As we all know, if the police had done anything wrong, the cameras wouldn’t have worked, the tape would have been lost, and the digital recording accidentally erased:

In a May 11 post on The Times’ OpinionLA blog, Ted Rall — a freelance cartoonist whose work appears regularly in The Times — described an incident in which he was stopped for jaywalking on Melrose Avenue in 2001. Rall said he was thrown up against a wall, handcuffed and roughed up by an LAPD motorcycle policeman who also threw his driver’s license into the sewer. Rall also wrote that dozens of onlookers shouted in protest at the officer’s conduct.

Since then, the Los Angeles Police Department has provided records about the incident, including a complaint Rall filed at the time. An audiotape of the encounter recorded by the police officer does not back up Rall’s assertions; it gives no indication that there was physical violence of any sort by the policeman or that Rall’s license was thrown into the sewer or that he was handcuffed. Nor is there any evidence on the recording of a crowd of shouting onlookers.

In Rall’s initial complaint to the LAPD, he describes the incident without mentioning any physical violence or handcuffing but says that the police officer was “belligerent and hostile” and that he threw Rall’s license into the “gutter.” The tape depicts a polite interaction.

In addition, Rall wrote in his blog post that the LAPD dismissed his complaint without ever contacting him. Department records show that internal affairs investigators made repeated attempts to contact Rall, without success.Asked to explain these inconsistencies, Rall said he stands by his blog post.

As to why he didn’t mention any physical abuse in his letter to the LAPD in 2001, Rall said he didn’t want to make an enemy of the department, in part because he hosted a local radio talk show at the time. After listening to the tape, Rall noted that it was of poor quality and contained inaudible segments.

However, the recording and other evidence provided by the LAPD raise serious questions about the accuracy of Rall’s blog post. Based on this, the piece should not have been published.

Rall’s future work will not appear in The Times.

That’s a surprisingly harsh standard, though. If the mainstream media is really going to stop publishing journalists and contributors who lie in their articles, it won’t be long before the average newspaper consists of nothing but sports scores and classifieds.

Waco II

It looks like something might be more than a little awry in the investigation of the Waco shootings that took place last month:

Four weeks after the deadly May 17th shooting incident outside a Waco Twin Peaks restaurant, more details have come out concerning the incident, but significant questions still remain about the actions taken by law enforcement and the police’s account of what transpired.

Although the national mainstream media has largely moved on from the Waco story, if critics of the police are correct, the incident represents an unprecedented civil rights violation and media cover-up campaign by the Waco authorities.

Police in Waco still have yet to state how many bikers, if any, were killed by the police, or to explain why the police showed up in force at all prior to the meeting on May 17th.

In a statement on Friday, the police said that of 16 officers that were in the parking lot, only three fired a total of 12 shots.  However, the statement still didn’t clarify how many of the bikers were killed by police. Authorities say they have not recieved final autopsy results that would clarify ballistics….

The Morning News piece quotes friends of Kirschner who praise him as a
gentle family man, but also includes a quote from “Lori,” a friend of
Kirschner, who echoed some of the rumors swirling as more doubts are
raised about the police account of the Twin Peaks incident.

In fact, Lori said, the biker community is rife with
reports about witnesses who heard the discharge of lots of high-powered
weaponry after a few initial pop-pop sounds of handguns. The reports
sounded like they came from “muzzled or suppressed high-powered
weapons,” said Lori, though she wasn’t there. The theory is that the
heavy fire came from tactical police officers.

I don’t believe the police version for one very simple reason: police are usually a) trigger-happy, and b) terrible shots. In one incident in Minneapolis, police fired 41 shots at a man in the skyway – which means absolutely no cover at all – and somehow managed to score zero hits.

The key is probably to be found in the statement “of 16 officers that were in the parking lot”. Fine, setting aside one’s skepticism that three police opening fire would only pull the trigger an average of four times each, there were a lot more than 16 police officers on the scene who were not in the parking lot. How many shots did the rest of them fire?

Child Protection Stasi in action

This abuse of government authority has got to stop, and stop immediately.

Police seized 10 kids from their rural Kentucky home after receiving an anonymous tip to investigate the family’s “off the grid” lifestyle.

Joe Naugler happened to be away with eight of his children when the authorities arrived on the scene. Nicole Naugler, who happens to be five months pregnant, took their oldest children with her to drive away, but the authorities stopped her and took took them. She was arrested for “disorderly conduct and resisting arrest,” but she claims she was arrested after not allowing the officers to take her children without a “fight.” Officers told her husband he needed to hand over the other children or face felony charges, and he complied.

Pace Ellsworth, a family friend, said he believes the Nauglers were targeted because the government disagrees with their “free” lifestyle of “unschooling,” which focuses on learning through life experience and each child’s individual strengths.

The children have been placed in four different homes in four different counties that CPS chose. On Friday morning, officials inspected the Naugler’s home and concluded that they did, in fact, have good living conditions.

The Nauglers are hopeful to get their kids back. The family will find out the specific reason their kids were taken at an upcoming court hearing, but it’s hard to believe how EASY it was for the authorities to take their kids. This was all based on a baseless, anonymous tip.

There is absolutely no excuse or justification for this sort of thing.
Every policeman and CPS agent involved should be arrested and tried for
kidnapping. Whatever happened to Blackstone’s Formulation and the principle “It is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer”?

The Child Protection Stasi aren’t protecting children. They are abusing them.