Tag: Middle East

America or Israel First?

Simplicius believes the damage to the Iranian nuclear program from the Israeli attacks was insignificant, and that the real goal was what I and many other suspected, which was to trigger an Iranian response that hit hard enough to give AIPAC cause to run crying to President Trump about the need to invade those mean ol’ Nazis in Iran.

The plan all along was obviously to goad Iran into an overwhelming response that would somehow incite the US to enter the war on behalf of Israel, in order to finish off Iran. The nuclear program was likely a false target, the real objective being the total overthrow of Iran’s leadership and the fomenting of civilian uprisings throughout the country to bring Iran to heel under a Western puppet-led government.

Now Trump stands poised on the knife’s edge of one of his most historically critical decisions—whether to betray the mandate of the American people and consign his second term and dwindling legacy to the trash heap of history, or to pull back on the strings of Miriam Adelson and other donors and show a spine in standing up for the real ‘America First’ vision he promised to all. As of this writing, there are reports of urgent meetings in the Pentagon surrounding precisely the issue of Israel’s request for the US to officially enter the war to ‘finish off Iran’.

Yanis Varoufakis writes:

This is Trump’s Waterloo. He posed as the Leviathan who would bring a stealthy Peace, a smart Deal that averts a war with Iran. Then, with one more gross violation of international law, Netanyahu puts him in a little box: For either Trump knew of the attack, in which case he is no more than Netanyahu’s stooge. Or he didn’t know, which begs the question why he didn’t know and how will he react to being treated like a fool by Netanyahu. Either way, Trump’s strongman, dealmaking image is now toast. Either way, he goes down in history as yet another US President that Netanyahu bent to his genocidal will.

The entire non-Western world is now watching this pivotal turning point moment with bated breath: Trump can either make a move to redeem at least some lost hope for America’s global leadership, or instead pound the final nail in its coffin, forever edifying the rising Global South as to the true nature of the immoral, barbarous, and unprincipled West. It is a metaphysical crossroads: Trump will either stay true to his quasi-spiritual mission of world betterment, or he will drown the US in the blood of neocon imperialism… I have it as 70/30 chance that saner heads prevail in the US with Trump electing to not enter the war, but we’ll see how it develops.

At this point, I think it’s important to remember that there are multiple Trumps and it is intrinsically misleading to put too much stock in anything that is said by any of them, but most particularly by the short, fat one controlled by Clown World. All the competing word-spells are irrelevant, all that matters is the courses of action actually taken by the various parties.

Nor should we put too much stock in Israeli crocodile tears about missile strikes on Tel Aviv after the way the IDF has flattened civilian buildings from Gaza to Beirut and Tehran. It is both nonsensical and contemptible to declare “this is war” and hit another party, then whine when the other party hits back.

In war, the enemy always gets a vote. And if the US is foolish enough to get further involved, there is no reason to assume North Korea, Russia, and China won’t follow suit. China probably won’t, but I wouldn’t bet on North Korea and Russia staying out of it.

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Why Iran Won’t Strike Back

Simplicius believes that Iran will not retaliate by attacking Israel with anything more than symbolic gestures:

Israel is at a crossroads, which I have described before: the country is in a downward spiral and has only one remaining chance to seize history to secure its survival. Why? The reasons are almost too long to list in this one brief article alone, but they include demographics, as well as the decline of Zionism and rise of “noticing” in the West which means in a generation or two, support for Israel may dwindle to the point where it will be engulfed by regional enemies.

The other major reason: nascent technologies have created parity between Israel and its foes, where groups like Hamas and Hezbollah can use cheap but highly technologically effective weapons to deal accurate, disabling damage to Israel’s most critical and sensitive infrastructure. The same goes for Iran: the country has come of age and mastered rocketry and newfangled drone warfare to the point where the numbers simply do not work in Israel’s favor in any future war.

Israel once had the backing of the world’s most dominant ‘superpower’ alliance of Western nations, now the tides of history have simply shifted against Israel’s favor.

Now there are reports Iran may “declare war” on Israel. I remain skeptical for the following reason: Iran has no true overriding capability to fully ‘submit’ Israel into a state of debellatio. Israel has the nukes, and presumably, Iran as of yet does not. No amount of conventional missiles could make Israel simply surrender, and as such a declaration of war has no real meaning. Neither do the two countries share a border so it’s not like Iranian troops can somehow flood Israel to capture its capital.

Any overwhelming attack that could critically wound Israel may provoke an Israeli nuclear response—further proving Iran does not have the escalatory advantage or trump card. That is like Ukraine “declaring war” on Russia—what possible meaning would that have? Ukraine does not have the escalatory dominance to ever ‘submit’ Russia in any way, and the only objective of true ‘war’ is just that—total victory and the subjugation of the adversary. Thus, I see no logical way war can be declared, unless Iran did finally secretly hatch that bomb and is ready to use it. The only other possibility is for PR reasons to satisfy the demands of the angry populace, before declaring victory after some arbitrary objectives have been carried out via a series of strikes, and calling it a day.

I think his analysis is perspicacious. The attack on Iran is far from devastating, and the loss of a few Boomers in charge is hardly debilitating or even necessarily unwelcome to their younger successors. There were not Israeli jets flying over Tehran as if it were Lebanon; the attack mostly consisted of missiles launched from well outside Iranian airspace combined with a secret drone attack from within Iran that suspiciously resembles the recent attack by the Kiev regime on Russian airfields.

And, as Simplicius pointed out, at present, Iran’s ability to defeat Israel is nearly as impossible as Israel’s ability to defeat Iran.

But as with China vis-a-vis the USA and Russia vis-a-vis NATO, time is on Iran’s side. Israel didn’t attack Iran yesterday out of a position of strength, but rather, weakness and desperation. It attacked Iran while it still can, while it still has enough of a technological and operational advantage to do so.

Therefore, it would probably be wise for Iran to settle for a few symbolic missile and drone launches before following the lead of its Chinese and Russian partners in simply waiting for the US support that sustains Israel to collapse, as it is already in the process of doing.

Of course, the fact that this makes long-term strategic sense doesn’t mean that events will proceed accordingly. But given the restraint shown by Iran on previous occasions, I think Simplicius is correct to anticipate that similar restraint will be shown here.

An analysis of the effectiveness of the Israeli strike, which makes it sound as if the initial reports were highly exaggerated, and therefore makes it even more likely that any Iranian response will be symbolic.

An Israeli attempt to decapitate the Iranian military leadership also appears to have largely failed, with only one reasonably confirmed senior casualty at this time – GEN Salami, commander of the IRGC since 2019. I’ve seen a report that he was quite ill and thus remained in his home unlike the rest of the Iranian senior leadership. Recall that Khamenei was taken to a secure location some time ago, so it’s not like the Iranians didn’t have warning or were complacent about getting into shelter. Two or three people connected to the Iranian nuclear program also seem to have been assassinated, but in real terms this isn’t going to affect a program that is already largely – if not entirely – complete.

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Is Israel Rolling the Dice Again

The US government appears to be bracing for another Israeli attack on Iran:

The US has begun evacuating non-essential personnel and family members from its embassies and military bases in the Middle East in light of escalating tensions with Iran. The move follows President Donald Trump’s accusation that Tehran is “slow-walking” negotiations.

“Based on our latest analysis, we decided to reduce the footprint of our Mission in Iraq,” the State Department said in an emailed statement to the media on Wednesday. Reuters cited a US official as saying that voluntary departures had also been authorized at the embassies in Kuwait and Bahrain.

The Pentagon has likewise approved the departure of family members from military installations in the region. “CENTCOM is working in close coordination with our Department of State counterparts, as well as our allies and partners in the region, to maintain a constant state of readiness to support any number of missions around the world at any time,” a defense official told reporters.

According to the Washington Post, American intelligence officials are concerned that Israel may strike Iranian nuclear facilities without US consent.

Well, Netanyahu has gotten away with invading Gaza and committing any number of atrocities there and managed to remove the Assad regime from Syria. So, it’s probably to be expected that the more aggressive elements of the Israeli government are in the ascendance and thinking that a) it’s not going to get any easier over time, b) they’ve gotten away with everything so far, and c) it’s easier to get forgiveness than permission.

I expect they’re also counting on their Israeli-flag-waving senators and congressmen to pressure the US military to bail them out if they get in over their heads with Iran. That’s the only part of their projected analysis with which I disagree, because I’m fairly certain that both the Israelis and the US politicians are significantly overestimating the Israeli-US capabilities vis-a-vis the Iranian-Russian-Chinese capabilities. We’ve seen that with regards to Ukraine, NATO, and Russia, we’ve seen it with regards to Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and the Red Sea, and so it would be a surprise if it wasn’t happening again.

Underestimation of enemy forces and capabilities is absolutely normal in wartime. It’s observable going back to Athens and the failed Sicilian Expedition. Which is why the first question you should ask yourself whenever looking at a military conflict is this: which side appears to be overestimating its own capabilities and/or underestimating the capabilities of its enemy?

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Why Were They Even There?

I don’t care in the slightest about Eurovision, but in light of the “controversy” I’m astonished that the Eurovision people permitted Israel to compete at all.

Around 4,000 musicians, artist and music industry pros from five Nordic countries signed an open letter denouncing the Middle Eastern country’s entry in the 69th Eurovision song contest in Basel.

Those who signed the statement, including some previous Eurovision winners, dubbed Israel’s involvement in the competition as a bid to ‘whitewash and divert attention’ from the Israel’s bombardment on Gaza.

It argued that Israel ‘should not have the opportunity to polish its public image on the Eurovision stage and thus use this to cover up and continue its human rights violations.’

Elsewhere broadcasters in Spain, Ireland and Slovenia have called for a debate on Israel’s involvement. Last week, 70 former Eurovision contestants signed a letter calling on the organisers to ban Israel from the competition.

More than 53,000 people have been killed by Israel’s bombardment of the besieged territory, with all aid blocked from entering Gaza since March.

Israel should never have been permitted to compete in Eurovision in the first place. First and foremost, it’s not in Europe. Second, it makes zero sense for Israel to be permitted to participate when Russia is banned from participating. And third, there was zero chance that the Israeli competitor was going to be received well by the Eurovision audience.

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Col Macgregor Calls Out AIPAC

34 years ago it was my honor and privilege to lead American soldiers to victory in battle to witness the courage and valor of American soldiers at a time and a place when death was all around us. Fortunately we sustained very few casualties however in the years that followed I watched many of the soldiers I served with pass on, not on foreign battlefields, but on American soil, frequently forgotten by the nation they served. In one case, a major who served with me as a lieutenant in 1993 committed suicide, the memories of the friends he lost in Iraq during a pointless, self-defeating occupation after 2003 were more than he could bear.

Yet who today remembers the Iraq war that began in 2003, or that the American military intervention was justified on the utterly false grounds that weapons of mass destruction were being built inside Iraq. The conflict took the lives of nearly 4,500 Americans in uniform, not including contractors, of course, and cost $2 trillion. At least 800,000 Iraqi citizens were internally displaced and several hundred thousand Iraqi citizens lost their lives.

Tonight I break my silence, not just for the young officer that committed suicide, but for the wives, husbands, children, and parents who endured the crushing grief of loss, who received a folded flag and were left alone to trace the name of a loved one on a cold gravestone. War is a predator. It consumes our best, our strength, and our resources, but its most terrible damage is often unseen. War also forces Americans to embrace brutality, to justify barbarism, to become something harder, colder, less humane. President Trump promised to stop the endless wars; now he really needs to do it. Americans currently stand at what Lincoln would call the fiery trial, through which we pass war with Iran or peace for America. The choice will echo through generations. We’re very fortunate the Iranians are willing to talk to us again, and perhaps we can reach a solution but, there are no guarantees. That will take leadership from the highest levels from President Trump.

Let me speak plainly about what awaits if Washington chooses war with Iran. Within hours of the first strike, Iran will seal the straight of Hormuz, choking the artery through which one of the world’s oil flows. Gas prices will not merely rise they may erupt like a volcano burning through family budgets. The economic security Americans built with their own hands since the pandemic disaster could be wrecked. Immediate price increases and loss of supplies could also result, yet the cost and treasure stands as nothing before the cost in blood. Iran is not the Iraq of our past wars. Iran consists of 85 million people fortified by mountains when the Roman Empire was young, defended by modern weapons and effectively allied with nuclear-armed powers, Russia and China, that have drawn clear and unambiguous red lines.

For the first time since missiles stood in Cuba we face not only the shadow but the real substance of nuclear confrontation, not for our country, but for the regional ambitions of a foreign state 7,000 miles from home. We must face the truth that weaker allies often attempt to make their wars our wars. America’s soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines should not be sacrificed for territoria lexpansions that serve no vital American strategic interest.

I did not witness war through PowerPoint slides or sanitized screens and situation rooms, but through bloody fog of war. I tell you with the full authority of my battlefield experience, this war, if it comes with Iran, is not necessary. this war is also not just. This war is not worthy of America. We must not sacrifice American lives on foreign soil while American soil thirsts for our attention. We must not trade American prosperity for another state’s regional hegemony while American prosperity deteriorates. We must not abandon America’s democratic principles for imperial ambition while those principles, our best hope for justice, fade for lack of devotion. The true strength of America has never been measured by regimes toppled, but by lives improved.

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Will Trump Put America First?

Simplicius reports on the recent panic in the Israeli media about the possibility that President Trump may have finally given up on the idea that what is good for the Jews is good for Americans, and in doing so, cites Jason Hickel’s apt observation of the obvious:

Palestine is the rock on which the West will break itself.

Put yourself in the shoes of people in the global South. For nearly two years they have watched how Western leaders, who love to talk about human rights and the rule of law, are happy to shred all these values in the most spectacular displays of hypocrisy in order to prop up their military proxy-state as it openly conducts genocide and ethnic cleansing against an occupied people, even in the face of *overwhelming* international condemnation.

What do you think people in the South are supposed to conclude from this? What would *you* conclude from this in their position? Decades of Western propaganda have been shattered, this time in full technicolour. Western governments have made it clear that they do not care about human rights and the rule of law when it comes to people of colour, the global majority. They spit on humanity. 500 years on from the beginning of the European colonial project and they have hardly changed in this regard.

If you think people will be willing to tolerate this going forward, you are mistaken. As Southern states begin to develop the capacity to reject Western hegemony, they will not hesitate to do so. In the 21st century, the West will find itself isolated from the world majority, and the world will move on without them.

Keep in mind that by “the West” what Hickel is really talking about is Clown World, which is the subversive anti-Christian elite that has ruled the West, first indirectly, then directly, since at least 1913 and possibly longer. China has already rejected Clown World supremacy. Russia has thrown off its oligarchs, but there are still some questions about Putin’s connections to Chabad, to which Donald Trump is tied through his daughter.

But while Trump is compromised and conflicted, as Simplicius notes, he also isn’t an idiot and he is not naturally inclined to go down the same futile path to destruction as his presidential predecessors.

Israel is in deep trouble, and has backed itself into an intractable corner. Trump likewise senses his entire legacy hangs in the balance of becoming another in a long line of warmongers, drowned—like past administrations before him—in the endless Mideast conflicts stoked by the perennial Israeli puppeteers. Will he have the courage to make the boldest and most decisive move possible?

Despite resorting to open genocide and ethnic cleansing, Israel still hasn’t been able to defeat Hamas, let alone Hezbollah. Attempts to enshrine Holocaustianity into US law are fanning the flames of genuine hatred, even as the younger generation across the West discovers who were the genuinely responsible parties for the invasion, degeneration, and decline of their societies.

Neocon Mark Levin is sufficiently panicked to say the quiet part out loud.

By the way, neocon is a pejorative for Jew. Unbelievable.

Think about what he’s admitting there. When the substance is intrinsically negative, every label eventually becomes a pejorative, due to the nature of what it is describing.

The truth is that it doesn’t really matter very much whether President Trump decides to do the right thing or if he fails due to a lack of courage. Events are going to take their course, the pendulum has been swinging back for ten years, and it will continue doing so for at least another fifty years, perhaps another century or more.

The Empire That Never Ended will survive, as it always does, hiding in the shadows and in the dark corners of various societies, and in the dark hearts of corrupt men, but its current form, which we know as Clown World, is already collapsing.

Carthago semper delenda est.

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Ethnic Cleansing Approved

The Netanyahu regime approves a plan for the “forced relocation” of Gaza’s Palestinians.

The Israeli government has approved a plan for the complete military occupation of Gaza and the forced relocation of its Palestinian inhabitants to the southern part of the territory, multiple news outlets have reported citing unnamed officials.

According to officials quoted by the AP, the new plan is meant to help Israel achieve its war aims of defeating Hamas and freeing the hostages held in Gaza. Israel says the militant group is holding 59 captives, although about 35 are believed to be dead.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet voted unanimously in favor of the strategy during a meeting on Monday morning, two sources told the media. Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces Eyal Zamir has also announced the mobilization of tens of thousands of additional reservists.

If the Israelis actually follow through on this, it’s going to be very, very difficult for them to credibly object to the “forced relocations” of their people, past and future, from anywhere in the world.

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Rumors of War: Flashpoint Iran

There are growing rumors that the USA is going to hit Iran hard on Israel’s behalf:

I’m currently in Tel Aviv, and according to several senior political, military and diplomatic sources, the United States and Israel are preparing to launch a strike on Iran that will finally eradicate the threat posed by the country’s nuclear weapons programme.

‘This should have been avoided a long time ago’, a senior Israeli government source told me. ‘It’s time to draw a line.’

On Monday, Trump announced with typical grandiloquence: ‘If they [Iran] don’t make a deal, there will be bombing… it will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.’ Some observers believed this was just more hyperbolic rhetoric. But the Israeli source was clear. ‘It’s not just a crazy insistence. It’s extremely important for the stability of Israel and the world.’

Threats of military action against Iran’s nuclear weapons programme have been made before. But there’s now clear evidence that, this time, both the US and Israel intend to do more than just rattle their sabres. A week ago the US deployed a trio of B2 ‘Spirit’ stealth bombers, accompanied by long-range refuelling assets, to its Chagos Islands base on Diego Garcia, bringing the total strength of the bomber force there to seven. This was significant because it’s rare to see such a major concentration of these sophisticated – and expensive – assets, and the B2s have the capability to deploy the GBU-57 ‘Bunker Buster’ which can penetrate Iran’s hardened nuclear shelters.

According to a second senior diplomatic source: ‘From Israel’s perspective, with Trump in the White House, this represents the optimum moment to deal with Iran. There won’t be a better chance.’

This isn’t what Americans elected President Trump for. But it is what his AIPAC-affiliated financial investors supported him for. It’s all very impressive and intimidating, I’m sure. But two things occur to me:

  1. The US military thought it could take down the Russians too.
  2. The USA’s Syracuse moment is coming. This may not be it. But it’s exactly the sort of thing that declining empires on the verge of collapse have a tendency to do, because they believe they still can.

We’ll see. I still find it difficult to believe that the God-Emperor is anywhere nearly as genuinely Israel First as his public rhetoric tends to paint him. And certainly, the US-based diasporans don’t tend to believe he’s on truly on their side.

There is only one way to find out, and that is to wait and see.

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Trump Endorses Ethnic Cleansing

I could be wrong, but I have the feeling there might be something more going on here than the straightforward endorsement of Israel’s ethnic cleansing of Gaza it appears to be.

Donald Trump’s bold plan to have the U.S. take over Gaza and transform it from rubble into a Middle East ‘Riviera’ is sparking fears from foreign policy experts who warn it could lead to a bloody occupation if it actually took place.

Trump’s ambitious comments about the U.S. seizing an ‘ownership position’ in the territory – even by sending troops if necessary – had lawmakers and analysts wondering if his vision would plunge the nation into the potentially bloody role of occupying power amid an intractable conflict.

Although Trump said Middle East leaders ‘love’ the idea and that the 1.8 million Gazans he estimated would be relocated to other countries would embrace it, there was evidence that the proposal was not fully cooked when Trump floated it at a press conference.

After all, who is going to live there? Anyhow, as with everything Trump says, don’t pay too much attention to it unless and until he actually does it. This could just be a way of keeping the media looking one way until something else is done, especially given everything he’s actually done so far.

AC offers an intriguing observation.

 I think Netanyahu tried to pressure Trump into relocating the Gazans, cleaning up the explosives, and redeveloping the land so Israel could take it over, get the gas reserves under it and make a shipping channel to compete with the Suez Canal, and pissed Trump off. So Trump waited until this news conference and just announced there the US would take possession of Gaza, probably figuring we can establish a port there for the Navy, some listening posts, maybe even to monitor the Israelis, and a base to allow us to operate in the region. Netanyahu does not look pleased.

We’ll see. Considering how things have been going so far, at this point, the God-Emperor 2.0 merits a lot of our trust.

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The End of Foreign Aid

President Trump has ended US foreign aid. Most foreign aid, anyhow. One guess as to the exception…

The US State Department has issued a halt to nearly all existing foreign assistance and paused new aid, according to an internal memo sent to officials and US embassies abroad.

The leaked notice follows President Trump’s executive order issued on Monday for a 90-day pause in foreign development assistance pending a review of efficiencies and consistency with his foreign policy.

The United States is the world’s biggest international aid donor spending $68bn in 2023 according to government figures. The State Department notice appears to affect everything from development assistance to military aid.

It makes exceptions only for emergency food aid and for military funding for Israel and Egypt. The leaked memo’s contents have been confirmed by the BBC.

“No new funds shall be obligated for new awards or extensions of existing awards until each proposed new award or extension has been reviewed and approved,” says the memo to staff.

It adds that US officials “shall immediately issue stop-work orders, consistent with the terms of the relevant award, until such time as the secretary shall determine, following a review.”

It also orders a wide scale review of all foreign assistance to be completed within 85 days to ensure the aid adheres to President Trump’s foreign policy goals.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio – the US’s top diplomat – has previously stated that all US spending abroad should take place only if it makes America “stronger”, “safer” or “more prosperous”.

This is a good start, but it all needs to be shut down. Permanently. There is absolutely no justification for a single penny to be sent to any nation or state outside the United States, especially given the precarious financial state of the federal government. It was a serious oversight by the Founding Fathers not to ban any and all foreign aid, especially given their opinion of the deleterious nature of foreign entanglements.

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