Tag: Middle East

Not NATO: Middle East Edition

Larry Johnson correctly observes that the new military alliance in the Middle East is not a US-aligned one:

The Western commentariat filed the Mecca agreement under a comfortable heading. When Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement on August 7 — an armed attack on one to be treated as an attack on all — the reflexive label was “Islamic NATO,” a Sunni bloc, three of the Muslim world’s largest militaries welded together by sectarian identity. That reading was obsolete almost before the ink dried. What is actually taking shape is not a Sunni alliance against Iran. It is the first load-bearing beam of the post-American security architecture that Russia and China have been calling for — and Tehran is about to walk through the door…

The Mecca agreement was sold to Western audiences as a Sunni bloc and dismissed as a club of American clients. It is neither. It is the first pillar of the security architecture Putin and Wang Yi named this spring after sitting with Iran’s foreign minister — a regionally led, Russia- and China-backed framework that folds Iran in as a legitimate power and pushes the United States out as the indispensable one. The Americans built their Gulf position on keeping Sunni and Shia apart and keeping the dollar in the middle. Both pillars are being pulled at once — and the structure going up in their place was drawn in Moscow and Beijing.

I was very confused when I saw the mainstream media covering the Mecca agreement as something that was good for Clown World. It seemed very obvious to me that it wasn’t an anti-Iran association, since Pakistan is one of Iran’s closest allies, but rather, a post-US security arrangement.

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The China That Can Say No

China is the first Iranian trading partner, but will not be the only one, to reject the USA’s desperate attempt to win on the economic front what it lost on both the military and the economic fronts:

Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: Donald Trump has threatened to wage a full-fledged economic war on Iran. Many say the economic threat is aimed at making up for the failure of the war, in the military domain, that the U.S. and Israel waged against Iran. What’s your take on that?

Lin Jian: Sanctions and pressure tactics are not the solution. China calls on parties to act responsibly and stick to the political and diplomatic approach. 

Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: Iran has endured years of sanctions imposed by the U.S. The Islamic Republic has either managed to bypass or find alternatives. And now it is said that Trump has no tangible card to enforce what he claims as “toughest sanctions.” What’s your viewpoint?

Lin Jian: China believes that military means, sanctions and pressure tactics are not the solution. On the contrary, they will only lead to escalation that serves no one’s interests. We call for efforts to solve disputes through dialogue and negotiation.

AFP: A follow-up on Iran, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged China to join Washington in putting strong economic pressure on Iran. This was in an interview yesterday. Bessent noted that China has historically imported much of its energy from the Gulf. Does the foreign ministry have a response to these comments by Bessent?

Lin Jian: I answered a similar question yesterday. Let me reiterate, China opposes illicit unilateral sanctions that lack basis in international law and UN Security Council mandate. We call on parties to act responsibly and stick to the political and diplomatic approach.

In other words, China will continue to ignore US demands and it will continue to support its ally and trading partner, Iran.

In not entirely unrelated news, I was rather impressed with the geopolitical analysis of US-China relations on the third episode of the fourth season of Lioness. I also found it amusing how assiduously the show avoided making any reference to Israel whatsoever in its discussion of intelligence operations in the United States.

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Sound and Fury Signifying Desperation

Short Fake Trump jacks up the rhetoric again:

No one has given the Islamic Republic of Iran a greater opportunity to make a Deal than me. TRAGICALLY, for them, they hâve failed to take it. Therefore, today, I am announcing the MOST CRUSHING ECONOMIC OPERATION EVER TAKEN AGAINST ANY COUNTRY! This will be Economie Warfare and Isolation on an unprecedented scale. Their navy is gone, their air force is destroyed, their military factories are now rubble, their currency is worthless, and their country is hanging by a thread. Today, I am also announcing that ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran will itself face TREMENDOUS Economie Conséquences. Oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries, front companies — It ail needs to stop NOW. You know who you are. This will be an ECONOMIC D-DAY, and we need ail of our Allies to stand with the United States of America to isolate, and defeat, the Iran threat. These maniacs are on the ropes, and these HISTORIC MEASURES will cripple them and their ability to Project terror worldwide. IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.

So after demonstrating the inability of the US military to the world, now he’s going to demonstrate the intrinsic weakness of the US financial system. All this accomplishes is to ensure that BRICS intensifies its process of replacing the US dollar and further weakening the economic influence of the USA.

Doubling down is not a strategy born of strength and success, but weakness and failure. This sounds like projection combined with pure desperation devoid of ideas.

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Don’t They Know They’re Losing?

Iran is engaging in some very unusual behavior for a side that we are reliably and repeatedly losing the war in the Gulf.

Iran has delivered an ULTIMATUM to the United States and states the U.S. has “3 – 4 weeks” to meet all of its demands or Iran “will severely escalate in the Strait of Hormuz” and launch its planned preemptive strike on US-Backed Gulf Infrastructure, and US / ISRAELI assets.

Iran’s demands include:

  • $300 billion in reconstruction funds
  • Full release of Iran’s frozen assets of up to $120 billion
  • Lifting of the U.S. naval blockade
  • End to the war across all fronts, including Gaza and Lebanon
  • Accepting Iran’s permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz, including up to 7% of transit fees
  • The lifting of all US sanctions on Iranian oil, petrochemical products, and gas

Of course, we’re also being told that Ukraine is winning the EU/NATO’s war against Russia despite having lost over one-third of its population, 20 percent of its territory, and living without heat or power.

I always wondered how the German people didn’t realize how badly they were losing on both the Eastern and Western Fronts. I don’t wonder about that anymore.

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No Permission, No Protection

It’s true, Israel doesn’t need the USA’s permission to fight Iran.

BREAKING: The Israeli military has directly informed CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper that Israel does not need approval or support from the US to wage war against Iran, adding “we are currently making preparations to start the war,” per Israeli Channel 13.

Israel is preparing for a unilateral strike on Iran as it concludes the US is no longer willing to finish the war on its terms.

Iran has previously threatened to strike Israel’s Haifa oil refinery and Tel Aviv directly as soon as Israel strikes Iran again, with Iran having broken the air defense layer in Jordan and other Arab countries in daily attacks over the last few weeks allowing it to strike Israel more effectively, and with Israel’s own interceptor stocks now critically low leaving it more vulnerable.

Israel is a sovereign nation. It has the right to make its own decisions. And, concomitant with that right is the right to experience the consequences of those decisions, without any subsequent assistance from the US military, regardless of how it turns out.

I don’t see the strategic wisdom in pursuing this war, but then, I’m not privy to the same quantity and quality of information that the Israeli generals possess. And the best thing that the rest of the world can do is let Iran and Israeli sort it out amongst themselves.

No one has ever brought peace to the Middle East, so there is no sense in even trying to do so.

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An Act of War

Was the USA involved in the recent Islamic invasion of two Spanish enclaves?

The US and Israel orchestrated the mass migrant crossing from Morocco into Spain’s North African enclave of Ceuta to punish Madrid for its refusal to bow to pressure on the Middle East conflicts, Iran’s embassy in Kenya has suggested. Spain has been at odds with Washington and West Jerusalem over the Gaza war and strikes on Iran.

Over the past several days, roughly 50,000 to 60,000 migrants crossed from Morocco into Ceuta by land and sea in numbers equivalent to some 70% of the enclave’s regular population. The local authorities admitted they had been “completely overwhelmed” by the sudden surge.

The crisis, the largest human traffic invasion in the EU’s history, claimed the lives of at least 86 people, a toll expected to rise further. Many of the victims drowned in the sea or were crushed in the stampede at border checkpoints. On Friday, the Iranian Embassy in Nairobi described the migrant surge as “an operation organized by Washington and Tel Aviv – coordinated with certain neighboring authorities – to destabilize Spain.”

We know Israel was involved as a sponsor. Both the Israeli Ambassador to the UN and the son of the current Prime Minister made that perfectly clear. But this is the first time that it’s been suggested that the USA was involved as well, although Trump did make some weird claims about how this sort of thing would happen in Europe if Republicans lose the mid-term elections.

I just assumed that was Trump doing his usual thing of attempting to jump to the front of every parade, but it’s possible there was more too it than that. If so, things are going to get even weirder than they already are fast.

UPDATE: And it’s more or less confirmed, given the signal that was recently sent by Congress.

House Report 119-631 accompanies the National Security, Department of State, and Related Programs Appropriations Act, 2027, which the House passed 217 to 209 on 15 July 2026.“The Committee notes that the Spanish-administered cities of Cueta and Melilla are located in Moroccan territory and remain the subject of Morocco’s longstanding claim.”

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Guns or Gas?

Larry Johnson thinks he’s figured out why the President and Pentagon called off this weekend’s expected attacks on Iran:

The New York Times published a piece by Eric Schmitt and Jonathan Swan that offers one explanation for Trump’s latest TACO. They write:

President Trump has set aside, at least for now, plans to sharply escalate the American military assault against Iran, with particular concern that intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East.

The threat to interceptor stockpiles is one of many considerations that has made a return to major combat operations a hugely risky endeavor, administration officials say. Mr. Trump and his top aides are also uneasy about the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, the alienation of key Gulf allies who are vulnerable to Iranian attack, a global economic crunch, and growing energy and refugee crises.

But there may be another consideration — one that does not exclude the reasons offered by the NY Times reporters — that involves the US fuel supplies. An economic brief prepared by Karl Miller investigates how the US military’s covert fuel procurement and export operations are depleting the nation’s diesel and jet fuel reserves, particularly during a period when domestic stocks are already critically low. The report details that from May to July, nearly 161 million barrels of distillate and jet fuel were exported, with the East Coast’s buffer falling to less than half its pre-pandemic norm. Much of this fuel is routed through opaque channels, such as the Rotterdam transshipment hub, where the final military or foreign allocation is not publicly reconciled, leaving the American economy exposed to shortage risks while military and foreign operations receive priority access.

A central finding is that the US government operates a parallel, largely unauditable military allocation system that siphons fuel from the civilian market. Public data merges commercial and military fuel categories, and certain military shipments are exempt from standard export reporting, making it impossible to track the true end-use of exported fuel. The report highlights that US taxpayers are subsidizing foreign military fuel needs, notably for Israel, through both direct and likely indirect channels, while the government does not disclose the full extent or funding split of these deliveries. Meanwhile, critical sectors like trucking, agriculture, and civil aviation are left with a diminished safety margin and increased disruption risk.

Miller concludes that the crisis is not due to a collapse in refinery output or a fabricated inventory, but rather a combination of structurally low inventories, high ongoing exports, and fragmented public reporting that obscures the military’s draw on national fuel supplies.

Americans are already angry about being forced to go to war again for Israel. And I suspect that even the great champions of antisemitism recognize that if they are deprived of their ability to drive as the economy gets further hammered by this insane, unnecessary, and ill-fated war, no amount of rhetoric, propaganda, and legal pressure is going to keep a lid on all that irrational, totally unprovoked hate.

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Escalation in the Red Sea

The third front in the War of the Straits is heating up again:

After the Encelia attack (Wednesday) and a further strike Friday on the Saudi vessel NCC MASA (minor hull damage, continued to destination per SPA), the Saudi-led coalition struck Houthi-held Hodeidah late Friday July 24. Al-Maliki framed it as a “proportionate military response against legitimate military targets” — sites used to threaten commercial shipping — and pointedly insisted the port itself wasn’t hit and remains open. The Houthis see it differently: Al Masirah says the strikes hit state telecommunications facilities in Hodeidah city and Kamaran Island (one woman injured there), with explosions reported at the port by Reuters. The Houthi Foreign Ministry warned Riyadh has made “escalation for escalation” the defining feature of the coming phase and that the strike “will prove costly.”

And sure enough, within hours, the Houthis launched 5 ballistic missiles launched at the ARAMCO oil terminal at Jazan Port, Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Aramco facilities in Jazan (also spelled Jizan) represent one of the company’s most ambitious and technologically advanced downstream projects — a fully integrated refinery, petrochemical complex, and power generation hub located in the far southwest of the Kingdom, on the Red Sea coast. The refinery is a full-conversion refinery, meaning it can process heavy crude into high-value light products rather than simply separating crude into fractions. Jazan is the largest gasification-based power facility in the world.

The Jazan complex is not merely a refinery — it is a fully integrated energy ecosystem that converts crude oil into refined products, petrochemicals, electricity, hydrogen, and industrial metals, all while minimizing waste and emissions. It represents Saudi Aramco’s vision of a smarter, lower-carbon downstream future and serves as the economic anchor for one of the Kingdom’s most ambitious regional development initiatives. In other words, the Houthis hit an extremely important Saudi Arabian energy asset.

The ball is now in the Saudi court. Will they escalate and attack the port facilities at Hodeidah or will they decide to call a halt to military operations and seek a diplomatic resolution? The smart move will be to go the diplomatic route. If they choose to strike more targets in Houthi-held territory then the Houthis’ next logical target would be the oil terminals at Yanbu.

Rather like Hitler in the Berlin bunker, Clown World is so desperate to keep its claws on the controls that it is not only risking its own fate, but the entire economic fate of the West on wars that are objectively unwinnable. And it appears that they will be attempting their own run for Argentina before they throw in the towel.

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A Strange New Regard for Peace

Larry Johnson contemplates why Israel’s warhawks and US neocons are being conspicuously quiet while Trump is pounding the war drums again:

During the first five weeks of Epic Fury Israel’s refineries in Haifa and Ashdod were hit and suffered significant damage. Those two refineries are essential for Israel’s ability to produce diesel and jet fuel. At present Israel is scraping by, but it does not have substantial reserves. Further damage to those refineries would create a fuel crisis for Israel, especially in terms of its ability to produce jet fuel. Without jet fuel, Israel’s ability to continue bombing Lebanon and Gaza would be severely constrained, if not eliminated. A lack of diesel would also cripple Israel’s ground operations. In short, renewed Iranian attacks on Israel’s refineries could leave Israel unable to continue military operations.

Translation: Israel knows the IDF will lose the next round. Washington, however, is not convinced of its own inability to defeat Iran. However, I don’t think that failing to join the incipient strikes is going to convince anyone, least of all the Iranian military strategists, that Israel has turned over a new leaf and genuinely wants peaceful coexistence in the region.

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Let’s You and Him Fight

“The State of Israel has no interest in joining the contained confrontation between Iran and the United States — the current situation is the best one for us.” – Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich

No doubt they don’t. But Israel had better use the time Trump has given it wisely, as it appears Iran is gearing up to take Kuwait and perhaps one or two other Gulf States now that it has reason to doubt the US military’s ability to engage in a ground war in the Middle East. That’s the problem with bluffing. Once your bluff gets called, you lose your ability to control the game.

“It is wrong to sacrifice a 19-year-old American girl for the Israeli regime.”

It is wrong to sacrifice any American for any foreign regime. But Trump was right. He’s not going to Heaven. Whether it was out of fear or out of greed, he chose to serve Hell. In fact, he still chooses to serve it. He could end both the Iran and the Ukraine wars tomorrow, but for one reason or another, he refuses to do so.

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