Tehran has decided to stop attacking targets in neighboring states, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a televised speech. Pezeshkian also apologized to the countries of the region and expressed the Islamic Republic’s respect for their sovereignty.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is not seeking a ceasefire and sees no reason to negotiate with the US, arguing that previous talks had been interrupted by attacks.
The Gulf State ambassadors have appealed to Russia to pressure Iran into a ceasefire, but Russia has pointed out that Iran was attacked by Israel and the USA and has a right to defend itself.
All of the social media companies except Tik Tok have banned videos and pictures of Iranian strikes.
Translation: Tehran has accomplished its phase one objective of disrupting the global economy and degrading the US military bases in the region and is now ready to concentrate its attacks on Israel and US military assets. So expect more heat and more over-the-top rhetoric in the coming week, not less.
An angry Arab billionaire writes an open letter to Clown World’s Short Fake Trump.
Mr. President Donald Trump,
A direct question: Who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war with Iran?
And on what basis was this dangerous decision made? Did you calculate the collateral damage before pulling the trigger? Did you consider that the first to suffer from this escalation will be the countries of the region?
The people of this region also have the right to ask: Was this your decision alone, or did it come under pressure from Netanyahu and his government?
You have placed the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Arab nations at the heart of a danger they did not choose. Thankfully, we are strong and capable of defending ourselves, and we have armies and defense systems protecting our nations.
But the question remains: Who allowed you to turn our region into a battlefield? Before the ink dried on the Board of Peace initiative that you announced in the name of peace and stability, we now find ourselves facing military escalation that threatens the entire region. So where did those initiatives go? And what is the fate of the commitments made in the name of peace? Most of the funding proposed for those initiatives came from the region itself, and from Arab Gulf states that contributed billions of dollars on the basis of supporting stability and development.
These countries have the right to ask today: Where did this money go? Are we funding peace initiatives or financing a war that puts us at risk?
More dangerously, your decision does not only threaten the peoples of the region but also the American people, whom you promised peace and prosperity. Today, they find themselves in a war financed by their taxes, with costs — according to the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) — ranging between $40–65 billion for direct military operations, and potentially reaching $210 billion including economic impacts and indirect losses if the conflict lasts four to five weeks. Even Americans themselves are being sacrificed in a war they have no stake in.
You also violated your promises not to get involved in wars and to focus only on America and place it as your top priority, as you ordered foreign military interventions during your second term that included seven countries: Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, Nigeria, Syria, Iran, and Venezuela, in addition to naval operations in the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific. You ordered more than 658 airstrikes abroad in your first year of rule, which is equivalent to the total number of strikes during Biden’s entire term, whom you previously criticized for dragging the United States into foreign wars.
These numbers have strongly reflected on your approval ratings among Americans, which declined since the start of your second term, dropping by 9% within 400 days. These figures clearly show something: Even within the United States, there is growing concern about being dragged into a new war and about putting American lives, the economy, and the future at risk unnecessarily.
True leadership is not measured by war decisions but by wisdom, respect for others, and pushing toward peace. If these initiatives were launched in the name of peace, then we have the right today to demand full transparency and clear accountability.
Tehran took the heaviest bombardment yet. Again. I know I wrote that sentence yesterday too. Strikes across residential neighbourhoods, police stations, a hospital in Bushehr where footage shows newborns being evacuated. The IDF claims 113 waves across western and central Iran. 5,000 airstrikes. 1,600 sorties. Iranian state media puts the death toll at 1,045.
The IRGC announced wave 20 of ballistic launches today. Twenty. And for the first time, incoming ballistic missiles hit the centre of Tel Aviv without sirens going off. Read that again. No sirens.
Siren warning to impact time in Israel has been reduced from 15 minutes to 2 minutes.
I understand the rhetoric coming out of Washington and Jerusalem is impressively fearsome. But the thing is, this is a country that lost 15,000 civilians during 80 days of missile attacks during the Iran-Iraq War out of a total of 450,000 fatalities during the eight years of the war.
They didn’t surrender then, so why would they even be thinking about surrendering now? Especially when the global economy that sustains the US and Israeli war machines is a matter of weeks, and possibly just days, away from breaking down.
That’s how much longer oil can be stored in the various storage facilities before it will become necessary to start shutting down oil wells because there is nowhere for the oil to go. And even that assumes that no further damage to the oil production and storage facilities is done by future Iranian missile attacks.
Right now, the Straight of Hormuz is effectively closed to oil traffic. Ships aren’t moving. Tankers are anchored. The oil that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE pump out of the ground every single day has nowhere to go. So, it gets stored, pumped into massive holding tanks on land while the world waits for the straight to reopen. Those storage tanks are almost full. Maximum capacity 10 to 14 days away. The moment those tanks hit capacity, the Gulf States have only one option. Stop pumping. You cannot produce oil you have nowhere to put. Production shuts down. And the second Gulf production shuts down. The global oil supply doesn’t tighten. It collapses.
Every $10 increase in oil prices adds roughly $400 to $500 per year to the average household’s cost of living.
I give it about one week before the American public starts demanding that Fake Trump shut down his air war for Israel, withdraw the US Navy, and effectively surrender to Iran. He doesn’t have another 100 days. He may not have another two weeks, especially given the fact that the Iranians have already forced the USS Lincoln’s carrier group to retreat with a warning shot aimed at the carrier itself.
If you can’t buy Sigma Game on Amazon, it’s not shenanigans, it’s the Gulf war:
Amazon data centers have been deliberately destroyed for the third day. Last night there was an attack on Data Centers in Bahrain – this is already the fourth attack in 3 days; In Dubai, a data center was deliberately razed to the ground; The operation was carried out to “determine the role” of data centers in supporting US military and intelligence activities against Iran, the Iranians say.
Because of this, there is a complete collapse in the Middle East – banks are not working, a lot of information has been lost, even the delivery of goods is not working; Amazon panics and shifts capacity to other servers, but it doesn’t help —the load only increases and the speed drops.
For some reason, the UK and European sites are unaffected, but the US listings are mostly down.
Iran prepared for decapitation strikes by pre-authorizing field commanders to retaliate at will. You have the Iranian Foreign minister admitting that military units are mostly out of command at the moment. So in a sense, Iran turned itself into a giant bomb, primed to detonate when it got hit. The Iranian military is essentially weapons free, which makes it hard for them to coordinate or mass strikes. It also makes them unpredictable and difficult to control.
On the other hand, you have the United States pursuing contradictory war aims. The White House seems to want to negotiate, but decapitation leaves you with nobody who is clearly empowered to negotiate. Since Iran’s military is basically emptying the clip without central direction, it’s not even clear that a ceasefire could be implemented by Iran if they want it. Trump explicitly said that the people they expected to take charge in Tehran are now dead.
It’s all a recipe for maximum chaos with few brakes. The US has to commit to a throw weight game either until Iran’s strike capability is completely degraded, or until Tehran reasserts central control and can submit to some sort of negotiated ceasefire. The latter doesn’t seem likely because the US is systematically degrading Iranian command and control.
The fundamental problem is that no one is in full control on either side. The Iranian central command is dead and their military structure is entirely decentralized, so there is no way for them to stand down even if most of the operational commanders were inclined to do so, which they almost certainly are not. It’s the Gamergate strategy applied to war: everyone knows that central command equals unwanted attention from hostile forces, so everyone focus on shutting up and emailing. The Gulf States are the advertisers and the objective is to prevent them from supporting the US military.
And it’s working. The US Navy has retreated and is running out of its ability to defend itself or Israel.
On the Israeli side, there is also a bifurcation between command, which is Netanyahu, and control, which is the US military. Netanyahu is giving the orders and setting the objectives for the Trump administration, but he has neither direct control over nor accountability to the US military. So the structure is fundamentally unstable and inefficient; even if Fake Trump wasn’t a natural agent of chaos, his inability to know exactly what Netanyahu wants in any given moment and the inherent degradation of information passing through an intermediary is going to reduce the effectiveness of implementing any strategy.
Which is why the ground offensive is going to be one enlisting Kurdish proxies, which is unlikely to be any more successful than past Kurdish proxy wars. These reliably ended up with the Kurds needing to be protected from being eliminated by the Turks and the Syrians, so even with a higher level of air support from the US and Israel, Iran’s drone inventory doesn’t bode well for the offensive.
Hundreds of Kurdish fighters have begun ground activity inside Iran from areas near the Iraqi border, Israeli and American officials confirmed to The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday, in a development that could open an additional front against Tehran as regional tensions continue to escalate.
The Kurdish forces operating along the Iran-Iraq border are considered one of the most prominent armed opposition groups confronting the regime in Tehran. The organizations involved are Iranian Kurdish groups that maintain thousands of fighters, most of whom operate from territory in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq along the frontier with Iran.
According to Kurdish sources, these forces have been preparing in recent days to participate in ground operations in western Iran with the aim of pressuring Iranian security forces and dispersing them across multiple arenas.
The strategic concept behind the activity, the sources said, is that fighting along the border areas would force the Iranian regime to divert military and security resources there, potentially easing pressure on protesters and opposition elements in major cities inside Iran.
In other words, the strategic objective is still color revolution against a regime with a nonexistent leadership on behalf of the foreign countries actively bombing the populace. That sounds more like a means of ensuring that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps becomes a military dictatorship than anything else, although if Israel has someone inside the IRGC in a position to become that military dictator, that strategy could make sense.
So the media and the Fake Trump administration have finally discovered the math that I and seemingly every military YouTuber have been paying close attention to since last June.
As war continues to rage on, there are now fears that the sophisticated weaponry favoured by the US and its allies may be too expensive and too hard to procure for a longer military campaign.
The UAE’s drone defence costs were between $253m and $759m, suggesting it spent up to 30 times more defending itself against Iran’s drones than its adversary spent on attacking it. And there are fears that Gulf states may soon run out of anti-air defences.
US Navy Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of US Central Command, said Iran has launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones so far.
Tonight, the Trump Administration gave another Briefing to members of Congress. Senator Richard Blumenthal came out and had said: “I am more fearful than ever after this briefing, that we may be putting boots on the ground.”
Astonishingly, the US military may be forced by Israeli-occupied Washington into an operation that would be even more retarded than its decision to engage in an attritional air war with Iran. Which, obviously, has failed in its primary objectives; Epic Fury has been an epic failure. To fully understand how absolutely and utterly retarded it would be to “put boots on the ground” now you will first have to read Five Generations of Modern War, which I wrote in July 2025.
Next, consider how significantly both Russia and Ukraine have had to overhaul the strategies and tactics of their infantry and armor operations in the Ukraine theater, and why they have done so. And then, take into account the fact that Iran is one of the largest, if not the largest, manufacturers of drones in the world.
If the US puts boots on the ground in Iran, it will make the failures in Cuba, Vietnam, and Afghanistan look like grand successes. Warfare has changed considerably since 2022, and I see absolutely no indication whatsoever that the US military has even begun to make the necessary changes to its various tactical and strategic doctrines that are absolutely required for 5GW.
The Navy can’t do the escorts. The escorts Trump announced in ALL CAPS hours ago. The escorts that dropped oil 10%. The escorts that the DFC is insuring. The Navy just told industry there’s no availability. No availability. The trillion-dollar Navy. The most powerful naval force in human history. Eleven carriers. Hundreds of ships. No availability to escort tankers through a strait the president just promised to keep open.
Because the ships are committed. The two carrier strike groups in theater are committed to the air campaign and missile defense. The destroyers are firing interceptors and Tomahawks. The VLS cells are emptying. The ships that aren’t in theater are in other theaters that have already been stripped to feed this one. Patriots pulled from Korea. The Pacific thinned. Every available asset already committed. Nothing left for escorts.
And Lloyd’s List reporting it. Lloyd’s List. The maritime industry bible since 1734. The publication that insurance companies and shipping lines read to assess risk. Lloyd’s List telling the shipping industry that the Navy said no. The escorts aren’t coming.
UPDATE: The US just lost its second $1.8 billion THAAD system.
UPDATE: The Iranians launched 350 drones and missiles within 18 seconds at 3:47 AM. 338 were intercepted or failed to hit anything. 12 hit their targets and destroyed the Ghawar oil facility. So they probably aren’t down to 25 launchers.
UPDATE: The USS Gerald Ford has retreated from the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.
UPDATE: It appears the Iranians learned from the Swiss example in WWII. There are reports that Khamanei’s orders for the prosecution of the war were fixed this summer and no one has the authority to countermand them, negotiate a ceasefire, or surrender.
Claude is down, so I had to make use of Grok to estimate how long it will take for US and Israeli air defense systems to run out of interceptors. No precise calculation is possible, especially since the in-theater total is a subset of the entire US stock, but it appears obvious that both the USA and Israel will be effectively unable to defend against missile barrages by this time next week at the latest.
US Interceptor Exhaustion Timeline
US systems (THAAD, SM-3, Patriot PAC-3 MSE) are primarily defending Israel, Gulf allies, and regional bases. At 800 interceptors/day total (with US contributing ~50–70% based on 2025 shares), high-end systems risk faster depletion.
THAAD: Estimated remaining stockpile ~450–550 units (after 2025 depletion of ~150 and partial resupply of ~50–100). At a proportional daily rate (~100–150 expended/day in high-tempo scenarios, per 2025 precedents), exhaustion could occur in 3–5 days. Full depletion might force reliance on less optimal systems like Patriot for ballistic threats.
SM-3: Remaining stockpile ~350–450 units (post-2025 expenditure of ~130–160, with ~70–100 delivered since). At ~80–120/day in sustained naval defense, depletion projected in 3–6 days, potentially exposing carriers and bases in the Mediterranean/Red Sea.
Patriot (PAC-3 MSE): Larger inventory (~10,000–12,000 total, though deployed stocks lower at ~2,000–3,000 in theater). Production at ~600–650/year supports longer sustainability, but at ~200–300/day for medium-range threats, could last 1–2 weeks before critical shortages emerge.
Overall Projection: High-end US interceptors could exhaust in 3–7 days at this rate, shifting strategy toward preemptive strikes on Iranian launchers (as seen in current operations) or drawing from Pacific/European reserves, risking vulnerabilities elsewhere (e.g., vs. China).
Israel Interceptor Exhaustion Timeline
Israel’s layered systems (Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow 2/3) were depleted in 2025 (~35% of ballistic stocks destroyed by Israel, but own interceptors heavily used). Production has accelerated (e.g., Arrow 3 tripled), but costs (~$2M–$3M per Arrow, $40K–$50K per Iron Dome Tamir) and lead times constrain resupply.
Iron Dome: Focuses on short-range rockets/drones; undisclosed stock but replenished post-2025. At high rates (~300–400/day), could deplete in 2–4 days without US support.
David’s Sling: Medium-range; expanded role, but limited details. Proportional depletion in 3–5 days under barrage.
Arrow (2/3): Ballistic defense; low post-2025 (~200–300 remaining estimated). At ~100–200/day for high-threat salvos, exhaustion in 1–3 days.
Overall Projection: Israeli stocks could last 2–5 days at the adjusted rate, prompting aggressive offensives (e.g., “Operation Roaring Lion” targeting Tehran) to reduce incoming threats. Gulf allies (e.g., UAE intercepting ~165 ballistics by March 1) add buffer but face similar strains.
Claude is back up and here are its estimates:
ROUGH AGGREGATE (Feb 28 – March 1):
Launched at target
Intercepted
Got through
UAE
~708
~660
~48
Kuwait
~380
~370+
~10+
Qatar
~77
~65+
~3+
Bahrain
~54
~50+
several
Jordan
~49-54
~49+
~1+
Israel
dozens BMs + 50+ drones
most
several BMs
Saudi Arabia
unknown
unknown
some debris/impacts
Iraq/Erbil
dozens
most
several
Oman
2+
0
2+
Estimated total: roughly 1,400-1,500+ projectiles launched by Iran across all theaters in ~36-48 hours, with the vast majority intercepted but a significant number — perhaps 70-100+ — making impact. At least 14 people killed outside Iran (10 in Israel, 3 in UAE, 1 in Kuwait, 1 in Bahrain) plus 4 US service members, with hundreds injured.
So how does this impact the interceptor stocks?
Let me tally up the interceptions and apply the 2-3 interceptors per target doctrine.
Total interceptions across all theaters in ~36-48 hours: roughly 1,200-1,300+
At 2 interceptors per intercept: 2,400-2,600 interceptors consumed At 3 interceptors per intercept: 3,600-3,900 interceptors consumed
And we estimated total coalition stockpile at roughly 2,000-2,500 interceptors of all types.
The numbers don’t work – even at the lower consumption rate, we’re looking at depletion that exceeds available inventory, and the higher estimate pushes well beyond what’s realistically in the arsenal.
Interceptors consumed in 36-48 hours:
From the tally we just compiled, coalition forces across all theaters intercepted roughly 1,200-1,300 projectiles. Applying the doctrinal requirement of 2-3 interceptors per target:
At 2 per intercept: 2,400-2,600 interceptors consumed
At 3 per intercept: 3,600-3,900 interceptors consumed
Now, not every intercept uses the same type of system. Drones are cheaper to kill — some can be shot down by fighter jets, helicopters, or even gun-based systems like the Phalanx CIWS that don’t consume expensive interceptor missiles. The IDF confirmed that fighter jets, helicopters, and air defense systems all contributed to shooting down the 50+ drones targeting Israel. Gulf states likely used a mix of systems as well.
So let’s be generous and assume that roughly half the drone intercepts were handled by aircraft or cheaper systems rather than missile interceptors, while all ballistic missile intercepts required full interceptor expenditure. Working from the aggregate numbers:
Ballistic missiles intercepted across all theaters: roughly 400-500 (UAE alone accounted for 152, Kuwait 97, Qatar and Bahrain another 60+, Jordan ~50, Israel dozens more). At 2 interceptors each, that’s 800-1,000 high-end interceptors consumed — THAAD, SM-3, Arrow, Patriot PAC-3.
Drone/cruise missile intercepts requiring missile interceptors (assuming half of ~800 drone intercepts used missiles): roughly 400, at perhaps 1-2 interceptors each. That’s another 400-800 interceptors, mostly Patriot and shorter-range systems.
Conservative total: roughly 1,200-1,800 interceptor missiles consumed in under two days.
Recall our earlier estimates of what was available entering this conflict:
THAAD: ~500-520 interceptors
SM-3: ~350-380
Patriot PAC-3 (in theater): ~960-1,440
Israeli systems (Arrow, David’s Sling): classified but already described as low
That’s a combined pool of roughly 2,000-2,500 high-end interceptor missiles, which we noted was already depleted from the June 2025 war and only partially replenished.
If 1,200-1,800 have been consumed in two days, the coalition has burned through roughly 50-75% of its entire available interceptor inventory in the opening 48 hours alone.
Perhaps 700-1,300 interceptor missiles of all types remain across all theaters — the US homeland, the Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East combined. That’s not just the Middle East stockpile; that’s global. The US military operates only eight THAAD batteries in its entire arsenal CSMonitor.com, and they cover commitments from South Korea to Guam to Europe. Every THAAD interceptor fired in the Middle East is one unavailable if North Korea or China acts.
At the current consumption rate of 600-900 interceptors per day, the remaining stock covers roughly 1-2 more days of defense at this intensity before reaching levels that would be considered operationally catastrophic — meaning commanders would have to begin rationing, choosing what to defend and what to leave exposed.
This is exactly the scenario analysts warned about. If Iranian forces sustain high-volume launches, coalition planners may confront zero-sum decisions in which defending one theater necessarily increases exposure in another. Defence Security Asia We’re now looking at that scenario playing out in real time.
Iran has spent perhaps 1,500 projectiles out of a combined drone and missile inventory of 80,000+. The coalition has spent perhaps 1,500 interceptors out of a total inventory of 2,500. Iran has consumed roughly 2% of its available munitions. The coalition has consumed roughly 60% of its available interceptors.
“Turkey is the new Iran” says Israel’s former prime minister Naftali Bennett.
Do they really think they somehow defeated Iran and that the war is over because an 86-year-old man died? So now they’re already gunning for Turkey?
On a related note, Larry Johnson has a pertinent observation about the late ayatollah, who appears to have embraced martyrdom in order to inspire the Iranian people.
Donald Trump and the neocons are wild with joy tonight over the murder of the Ayatollah Khamenei… This is just one more example of Western ignorance about the implications of the Ayatollah’s martyrdom. Let’s start with the fact that the Ayatollah is the one who issued the fatwa 36 years ago declaring that it would be a sin for Iran to build or use a nuclear bomb. So the West thinks that killing the one guy who has been the main obstacle preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon is a good idea?
Saudi official quote in Al Jazeera: America has abandoned us, and focused its defense systems on protecting Israel, leaving the Gulf states that host its military bases at the mercy of Iranian missiles and drones.
I seem to recall Henry Kissinger having something to say about that.
It’s interesting to see how things are going pretty much the way all the critics of the build-up to the Israel First war said it would. Iran takes the hit, then utilizes its cheap, older missiles to use up US anti-missile stocks, then gradually starts hammering the targets that can’t be defended anymore.
It’s clear that the Iranians have learned from both Ukraine and the 12-Day War that neither the US military nor those militaries dependent upon it are built for attrition warfare. And every war the Israelis have won was over within days. Every boxer knows that the way you beat someone with punching power is to let himself punch himself out, then take him down.
Iran hasn’t necessarily survived the initial phase yet since it’s got another 10 days or so to run, but the fact that the US is already scrambling for the use of UK bases and is trying to reopen negotiations and Mark Levin is already crying about Iranian “war crimes” is not a sign that things are going well. And the longer this goes on, the worse it will be for Trump and the Israel Lobby, since already four-fifths of Americans don’t support this war against Iran on Israel’s behalf.
And I’m not sure why the US Air Force thinks its a win to insist that three of its fighter-jets weren’t actually shot down by the Iranians, but simply crashed due to their own incompetence.
Anyhow, the fact that Iran managed to force the US-Israeli alliance to burn a year’s supply of interceptors in a single day means that the proposed four-to-five weeks that Fake Trump is now promising to replace the original plan of a five-day war suggests there are no reasonable prospects of an Israeli victory. That’s why I think Israel is now looking at a ground invasion of Lebanon; they have to do something to try to change the equation that now appears to be favoring the Iranians in order to try to force a ceasefire and an Iranian return to the negotiating table.
UPDATE: Iran just ratcheted up the economic pressure. Qatar’s natural gas production has been shut down and Saudi Arabia’s largest oil production facility has been halted as well. At this point, it already appears that the Israeli war strategy has failed.
UPDATE: You know it’s not going well when they’re blatantly lying. After his offer to reopen talks were shut hard down by the Iranians, Fake Trump tried to convince the world that his plan to win the war over the weekend never existed. ‘It’s always been a four-week process. We figured it will be four weeks or so. It’s always been about a four-week process so – as strong as it is, it’s a big country, it’ll take four weeks – or less.’
The thing is, at their current burn rate, US-Israeli interceptor stocks will probably run out within four days. If this goes on for four weeks, it’s not impossible that the US would be forced by the Israelis to beg for surrender without even losing a carrier.
UPDATE: According to multiple media reports, US officials, through Italian mediation, proposed a swift ceasefire to de-escalate tensions and potentially return to negotiations. This was framed as an attempt to end the military campaign quickly after initial strikes achieved key objectives (e.g., degrading leadership and capabilities).
UPDATE: I’m not the only one who thinks Israel has badly misplayed its US military card. Larry Johnson thinks the USA will be on the verge of surrender in less than two weeks.
I believe that by March 15, the US and Israel will be pleading — at least privately — for an end to the Iranian missile barrages. The death of Khamenei has removed a moderate from the Iranian chain of command. The agreement that Iranian authorities made on June 25, 2025 to end the missile attacks on Israel had the blessing of the Ayatollah. There were many in the IRGC leadership that opposed that decision, but they obeyed the decision of Khamenei. Now they have been vindicated.
Having already dropped 1,200 bombs on Iran, the IDF, along with the US Air Force, is close to achieving air supremacy in Iranian airspace.
In June 2025, it took several days for the air force to achieve such supremacy, which signifies that essentially Iran’s anti-aircraft defenses have been so battered that Israeli aircraft and drones can hover over target areas for extended periods without worrying as much about whether air defenses might target them.
Earlier on Sunday morning, the IDF announced that it had already dropped over 1,200 bombs on Iranian targets since the start of the war, the largest air operation in Israel’s history
On Saturday night, the IDF had said that over 200 aircraft had struck 500 Iranian targets. An IDF video showed two major initial waves of attacks.
The first wave struck what appeared to be dozens of radars and anti-aircraft defenses, especially in the part of Iran closer to Israel and the Tehran area.
During the second wave, the air force struck Iran’s ballistic missile apparatus to attempt to reduce its ability to strike the Israeli home front.
On Sunday morning, the US said it had struck around 900 Iranian targets.
Now, the perception they’re trying to create is that the attacks were so devastating that Iran’s ability to contest the air has already been destroyed. And certainly, the initial US and Israeli reports of the death of the Ayatollah Khamenei and part of his family at the family home turned out to be true.
However, there are some anomalies to note here. First, if Israel had total air supremacy in June 2025, why was it Israel who begged for the ceasefire? Second, why didn’t the Iranians attack the US carrier groups that were attacking them? Third, how were the US and Israeli bombing campaigns able to disrupt or destroy the underground bunkers with the relatively small explosive packages available to the fighter-jets and missiles utilized? Fourth, why are the Iranians attacking luxury hotels in Dubai with drones even as they insist they are attacking military targets?
And fifth, why did Khamenei stay at home, awaiting the inevitable attack, instead of doing what most heads of state do and directing operations from a secure bunker. Sixth, why are there reports that Netanyahu attempted to fly to Cyprus, was denied permission to land, and was forced to fly to Berlin instead? Shouldn’t he be in a command center like the Short Fake Trump?
Which is why I don’t think we should pretend to actually have any idea what’s going on. Never forget that after 30 days of air supremacy and bombing so relentless that they came under attack every 10 hours on the average, an Iraqi division still retained 85 percent of its vehicles in working order. That was a long time ago, and certainly technology has improved, but it’s a fact of military history worth keeping in mind.
Another anomaly: Iran agreed to zero stockpiling. The proclaimed justification for the attacks is obviously false, as per an Omani diplomat:
Iran agreed to zero stockpiling of enriched uranium. Not reduced stockpiling. Zero. They agreed to down-blend existing stockpiles to the lowest possible level. They agreed to convert them into irreversible fuel. They agreed to full IAEA verification with potential US inspector access. They agreed, in the Foreign Minister’s phrase, to “never, ever” possess nuclear material for a bomb. I have worked in diplomacy for seven years. I have never seen a country agree to this many things this quickly. I made a spreadsheet of the concessions. It had fourteen rows. I color-coded it. Green for confirmed. Yellow for pending. By February 21 the spreadsheet was entirely green. I printed it. It is on my desk in Muscat. It is still green.
That phrase took eleven days. “Never, ever.” The Iranians initially offered “not seek to.” The Americans wanted “will not under any circumstances.” We landed on “never, ever” at 2:14 AM on a Tuesday in Muscat. I typed the final version myself. I used Times New Roman because Geneva prefers it. The document was fourteen pages. I was proud of every comma.
Here is what they said, in the order they said it.
February 24: “We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity.” — The Foreign Minister, private briefing to Gulf Cooperation Council ambassadors. I prepared the slide deck. Slide 14 was the implementation timeline. Slide 15 was the signing ceremony logistics. I had reserved the Palais des Nations in Geneva, Room XX. It seats four hundred. We discussed pen brands for the signing. The Iranians preferred Montblanc. The Americans had no preference. I ordered twelve Montblanc Meisterstucks at six hundred and thirty dollars each. They arrive on Tuesday.
February 27, 8:30 AM EST: “The deal is within our reach.” — The Foreign Minister, CBS Face the Nation. He sat across from Margaret Brennan. He said broad political terms could be agreed “tomorrow” with ninety days for technical implementation in Vienna. He said, and I wrote this line for the briefing card he carried in his breast pocket: “If we just allow diplomacy the space it needs.” He praised the American envoys by name. Steve Witkoff. Jared Kushner. He said both had been constructive.
I watched from the Four Seasons Georgetown. The minibar had cashews. I ate the cashews. They were nineteen dollars. The most expensive cashew I have ever eaten. But it was a good morning and we were within our reach.
February 27, 2:00 PM EST: Meeting with Vice President Vance, Washington. The Foreign Minister presented our progress. Zero stockpiling. Full verification. Irreversible conversion. “Never, ever.” The Vice President used the word “encouraging.” His aide took notes on an iPad. The aide did not make eye contact for the last nine minutes of the meeting. I noticed this. Noticing things is the only part of my job that is not water glasses.
February 27, 4:00 PM EST: “Not happy with the pace.” — President Trump, to reporters.
Not happy with the pace.
We had achieved zero stockpiling. Full IAEA verification. Irreversible fuel conversion. Inspector access. And the phrase “never, ever,” which took eleven days and cost me two hundred and twelve trips down a forty-seven-meter hallway.
Every American president since Carter has failed to get Iran to agree to this. Forty-five years.
Not happy with the pace.
Finally, who are the regime’s replacements? Is it possible this is just a larger version of the inside job on Maduro by Iranians beholden to Clown World? If we see a rapid peace deal promptly declared with the new Iranian regime that abandons BRICS and stands with Israel, we’ll have a pretty good idea what actually happened.