Tag: Middle East

Bringing People Together

Say what you will about Netanyahu and Trump, but they both have a gift for bringing diverse people with differing interests together:

An Arab-Islamic emergency summit convened today in Doha to discuss Israel’s attempted assassination of the Hamas negotiators, who were in Doha at the request of the United States when they were attacked. The meeting produced some very startling optics, starting with former ISIS terrorist leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani — who is now repackaged as Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, with a nice beard trim and a $1,000 suit to boot — meeting with Iranian officials, including President Pezeshkian. Two years ago Julani’s forces were attacking and killing Iranian soldiers, and vice-versa. We also saw Jordan’s King Abdullah in attendance and interacting with folks he normally would shun… And Iran’s President Pezeshkian had a cordial meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince. This was akin to a conference of lions, lambs and jackals meeting to discuss how to stop poachers.

Although the summit did not produce a consensus to break all ties with Israel, the mere fact that such a diverse group, that in normal times are at odds with one another, assembled to engage in a diplomatic discussion about how to stop Israel’s attacks is noteworthy and also signals a dramatic decline in the ability of the US to influence events in the region.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a huge amateur mistake today by visiting Israel as this summit was underway. Following the summit, Israel reportedly has launched a massive attack on Gaza City. The participants at this summit will likely interpret this as Donald Trump giving Israel permission to expand its campaign of genocide. It will reinforce the view of the members of the Arab-Islamic that Trump is weak and totally under the control of Bibi Netanyahu. Regardless of his intent, Rubio will be viewed as the guy who delivered Trump’s message to launch the offensive in Gaza City.

The crows would appear to be gathering in anticipation of battlefields to come.

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Mailvox: Tactical Dominance isn’t Victory

An American military analyst shared his professional opinion about the challenge facing the Israeli military, as the Netanyahu regime appears to be writing checks the IDF knows it can’t cash:

Israel’s professional military is what has generated its tactical dominance — operationally and strategically, its position is deteriorating faster than almost anyone predicted, evidently excluding me, and the General who was in charge of training the IDF’s generals.

The IDF’s general officer corps is currently openly fretting about a potential war with both Egypt and Turkiye — they didn’t consider either scenario even a remote possibility 2 years ago, with the only people who frequently pointed out the possibility of war with Egypt being old Shin Bet Egypt hands that’ve scrupulously documented the Egyptian military’s build-up.

To be clear, the IDF’s generals concluded that they’d functionally lost the Gaza war like 4 months after it started. They’re not stupid. A major contributing factor to this strategic miscarriage is the IDF’s conscription policy, which has cultivated a general sentiment of martial invincibility that really is not grounded in material reality. That’s enabled the Israeli government’s designated wingnuts to push through flamboyantly strategically self-defeating regional policies because their support base has a “we can take them” attitude rooted in their temporary service, despite Israel not having fought anyone even approaching peer status in 50 years.

I shouldn’t even have to expound upon the IDF’s conscripts’ bad battlefield performance, and their high casualty rates when they actually see combat. The professional Israeli Army has borne the brunt of the actual fighting, and even they’ve been experiencing manpower shortages for over a year now — largely from casualties absorbed.

Now, I don’t put much stock in American military analysts anymore, much less European military analysts, since most of them have been so observably wrong with regards to both the Ukrainian and the Taiwan situation. But, in the case, the analyst correctly predicted the same thing that students of Martin van Creveld also knew, which is that a Gaza operation would most likely cause the serious deterioration of both the IDF’s military capabilities as well as its strategic position in the region.

Goliath can’t find David for an extended period of time without degrading its morale, its morals, and its military capabilities. It’s the same reason police make terrible combat soldiers. Becoming accustomed to outnumbering and outgunning the opponent by a significant margin is not conducive to developing the skills, mindset, and practices required to defeat a genuine peer; there is a reason why the oddsmakers favor college football teams who test themselves with formidable opponents early in the season over those who schedule cupcakes.

Imagine if Notre Dame played nothing but high school teams all season, then went up against Ohio State. That’s pretty much what the IDF has done for the last 50 years. Although its special operations have been wildly successful with the support of the USA in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, none of these geostrategic accomplishments – and the unseating of the Assad regime in Syria was particularly impressive – actually have anything to do with genuine military combat. And I see no signs that the IDF has begun to start even trying to apply the lessons of the new generation of infantry warfare developed in Nagorno-Karabakh and Ukraine.

This may explain why the Netanyahu regime recently backed down from its intentions to announce the annexation of the West Bank. The ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians from Greater Israel is obviously its goal, but saner heads in Israel understand that openly pursuing that objective will likely trigger a war it is unlikely to win.

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Perhaps the 8th Try’s the Charm

The IDF was just forced to retreat from a supposedly nonexistent battalion:

There is an ironic article in Haaretz today — ironic because of breaking news as I write this at 10 pm eastern time — with the title, Inside Gaza City’s Zeitoun, IDF Insists Its Seventh Incursion Will Finally Defeat Hamas. Here are a few salient points from the article:

Throughout the Gaza war, the IDF said the Zeitoun battalion was defeated, but now admits it may have spoken too soon. The mission: erase the neighborhood above and below ground. ‘I assume we’ll meet again,’ said a commander, ‘maybe for the eighth time in Zeitoun.’. . .

But what could the Israel Defense Forces achieve this time that it didn’t manage to achieve the previous six times, in which the 36th, 99th, 252nd, 126th and 98th divisions fought here? Indeed, it seems every unit serving in Gaza over the past two years has taken part in “defeating” Hamas’ Zeitoun Battalion. . . .

Throughout the war, senior defense and government officials have told journalists that the Zeitoun Battalion had been defeated and had ceased to function as a military unit. But now, they say they could have been too quick to make that assertion. Currently, the army says, the battalion is in combat-ready and has around 400 fighters, but it is displaying “exaggerated self-confidence” about the upcoming fight with the IDF.

Well, guess what? According to the Middle East Spectator, the IOF today (Friday) received an ass-whipping at the hands of the Zeitoun Battalion:

The IDF is withdrawing from Al-Zaytoun neighborhood, after the rescue forces were ambushed by Hamas fighters, leading to 1 death and 11 wounded.

BREAKING: No contact has been made with the four missing Israeli soldiers in Ayn Al-Zaytoun in the Gaza Strip — there is now increasing speculation that all of them may have been captured by Hamas.

Hebrew media now reporting that the IDF search and rescue has ‘given up’ on the 4 missing soldiers, and the Israeli government is preparing a major press release.

Martin van Creveld wept.

The Israeli government and the IDF have been completely ignoring the strategic advice of their greatest military historian. It should not come as a surprise that their results have not only turned pretty much the entire world that isn’t owned by AIPAC against them, but have also failed to pacify the Palestinian resistance.

It’s also obviously counterproductive to slaughter tens of thousands of civilians using the nominal excuse of “rescuing the hostages” in a manner that literally creates more hostages. And I wonder how longer it will be before at least one other military comes to the defense of the Palestinians and starts doing to Israel what the IDF has been doing to Gaza.

It’s perfectly understandable that Netanyahu wants to establish as much of Greater Israel as he can before the neocons lose all power in the USA and the US military loses its ability to project force into the Middle East. The Syrian operation was brilliant in this regard, the attacks on Lebanon rather less so. But staging the October 7th green flag and then using it to justify the genocide of the Gazacaust is the sort of thing that will not only live on in historical infamy, but isn’t likely to work.

UPDATE: Turkey’s recent action may be a harbinger of Israel’s increasing isolation. Or it may just be a sign of the inevitable hostilities growing now that the two countries essentially share a border inside what used to be Syria.

Türkiye has severed all commercial and economic ties with Israel, as well as closing its airspace to some Israeli flights, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has announced. The two countries have been at odds for months over Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, with Türkiye accusing the country of committing genocide.

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Who Won the Fake War?

If the USA has to pay Iran just for the privilege of resuming diplomacy, doesn’t that indicate Iran won the first round of the Israel-Iran War?

As reported on July 31, 2025, Iran has set unprecedented preconditions for merely resuming talks with the United States: “US compensation for damage to Iranian facilities; US recognition of Iran’s sovereign right to enrich uranium.”

This isn’t negotiating—this is demanding tribute just to sit at the table.

The brilliance lies in the reversal of traditional diplomatic dynamics. Usually, concessions come during negotiations, not before them. But Iran has learned that American promises made during talks evaporate like morning dew. So why not demand concrete commitments upfront? If America balks at preliminary guarantees, it proves they were never serious about keeping their word anyway.

This approach reflects the strategic calculations I outlined in “The ministry of Silly Wars”: Iran doesn’t need these negotiations as desperately as America thinks. With China purchasing 90% of their oil and Russia providing military technology, Iran has options. The question isn’t whether Iran will negotiate—it’s whether America is willing to pay the entry fee.

The demand for compensation particularly stings American pride. It forces acknowledgment that the June 2025 strikes were aggression, not self-defense. It monetizes the damage, creating a paper trail that can’t be denied in future “misunderstandings.” Most importantly, it establishes the principle: actions have costs, and those costs must be paid before expecting diplomatic rewards.

Recognition of enrichment rights strikes even deeper. For decades, America has treated Iran’s nuclear program as inherently illegitimate, despite NPT rights. Now Iran demands this recognition as a precondition—not a negotiating point, not a concession to be earned, but a basic acknowledgment required just to begin talking. It’s diplomatic jujitsu at its finest.

It’s pretty clear that Israel is negligible militarily if Iran is forcing the USA to pay tribute before even coming to the table. It will certainly be remarkable if the period of American global hegemony fades without there even being an attempt at a Sicilian Expedition. Perhaps the last Clown Worlders in Washington are a little more rational and inclined toward self-preservation than their rhetoric would have us believe.

Although we still can’t rule out one last cavalry charge against the tanks in either the Red Sea or the South China Sea.

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France Recognizes Palestine

Clown World’s diplomatic wall is cracking. My guess is that the Israeli plans to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians and move them to Europe proved to be one final bridge too far.

The only way to resolve the Middle East conflict is through the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday. His statement followed French President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement that France will formally recognize Palestine at the UN General Assembly in September.

”Russia has always adhered to a two-state solution as the basis for resolving the Palestinian issue,” Peskov told reporters. Moscow’s recognition dates to 1988, when the Soviet Union endorsed the Palestinian declaration of independence.

According to Peskov, peace “can only be achieved by adhering to UN Security Council resolutions,” which have declared Israeli occupation in the West Bank and East Jerusalem illegal and called for a ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Macron’s decision, announced on social media, aims to advance a “just and lasting peace.” France would become the first major Western power to recognize Palestine, joining over 140 countries that already do.

Another point of observation: whenever you see rhetoric appealing to specific events, that’s a pretty good indication that the events were staged or otherwise exaggerated. The idea that Palestine, a nation that existed long before the first Zionists ever appeared in the region, doesn’t merit recognition “because of October 7th” isn’t just obviously ridiculous, it’s not even good rhetoric.

But it does tend to confirm the immediate suspicions at the time that it was a green flag, at the very least. Although why Hamas would keep trying to hold onto any hostages is completely beyond me, given that it’s the sole remaining Israeli excuse for its actions in Gaza. Unless, of course, Hamas actually thinks it’s winning, which I suppose is possible.

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Someone is All Talk

The question is, is it Iran or is it Israel?

Former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant: “Iran is preparing for a large-scale preemptive strike against Israel. We have no choice but to strike Iran again.”

Iran: “Iran has officially stated that if Israel carries out an attack or any terrorist action this time, it will be considered an official declaration of war. This time Iran will not accept any truce and will show no mercy — the strike will be delivered in such a way that nothing but ruins will remain of Israel.

Given that both sides are given to nonsensical rhetoric, it’s hard to take either side very seriously. But on the balance of things, and given the obvious imbalance of size and military power, one tends to suspect that it’s Israel. Iran has no need to prepare for a large scale preemptive strike since it was already exhausting Israel’s air defenses before the ceasefire, therefore it is likely that Gallant’s claim is false and intended to justify another preemptive strike by Israel.

Although given the complete failure of the first one, one wonders what they think they’re going to accomplish this time around.

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Iran and the 5D Chess

Larry Johnson contemplates Iran’s new stance on nuclear negotiations:

A senior Iranian political figure has told Iranian Press TV that Iran is rethinking its approach to nuclear negotiations and will not enter new talks using the same framework or agenda.

Referring to the U-S request to resume negotiations, the source emphasized that any talks must align with the real security dynamics of the region. He expressed skepticism about the US intentions for peace, stating that the goal of Washington is to disarm Iran to compensate for Israel’s weakness in the next potential war. The political figure added any new negotiations must include serious and practical guarantees including scrutiny of Israel’s nuclear and WMD programs, credible punishment of the regime (i.e., Israel) and compensation to Iran. He stressed in the absence of these conditions, negotiations will merely serve as a prelude to war. He added Tehran is willing to “offer another opportunity” but requires evidence that U.S. negotiator Witkoff is pursuing peace rather than escalation.

There you have it. Iran is willing to talk but only if the conditions outlined above are met by Washington. This means there will be no further negotiations and that Iran will busy itself preparing for the next US/Israeli attack. Iran’s requirement that Israel be subjected to the same type of scrutiny of its nuclear program as Iran is a new, but not surprising, demand. While Iran’s demands are reasonable, I cannot imagine any scenario where Trump would agree.

This is where the rubber meets the road. The Short Trump certainly appears to be in Netanyahu’s pocket. But if – and only if – the USA agrees to Iran’s conditions and forces Israel to be subject to the same inspections of its nuclear capabilities by neutral international parties for the first time, we have to at least be open to the possibility that there is some sort of more complicated scenario in play.

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It’s Not a Concentration Camp

It’s a humanitarian concentration city for Palestinians.

Israel is preparing to establish a so-called “humanitarian city” on the ruins of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, where the Palestinian enclave’s entire population is to be moved, the country’s defense minister, Israel Katz, has announced. Critics of the initiative promptly branded the “city” an internment camp and warned of potentially widespread human rights abuse.

The “humanitarian city” is expected to initially accommodate some 600,000 Palestinians – primarily displaced persons living in the coastal Mawasi area to the northwest of Rafah, Katz told reporters on Monday. Eventually, all of the estimated 2.2 million Gazans will be placed into the “city,” which is to be secured by the Israeli military from a distance and run by unspecified international organizations, the minister stated.

The Palestinians will undergo screening before being placed into the “city” to ensure no Hamas operatives slip in, Katz noted. The scheme is ultimately designed to displace the entire Gaza population and encourage it to “voluntarily emigrate” from the enclave elsewhere, the minister admitted. Those who end up in the zone will not be allowed to return to other parts of Gaza, he added.

The defense ministry has already begun planning for the zone, according to Katz.

To claim special victim status on the basis of historical events from five generations ago and use it to engage in the kind of vicious ethnic cleansing we’re witnessing in real-time now is simply unreal. And unacceptable.

This might be enough to wake up the average Boomer, though probably not the average Boomer Christian Zionist.

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Don’t Trust the Disinformation

To absolutely no one’s surprise, it turns out that Israel lied about the ineffectiveness of Iranian missile strikes:

Israel concealed that Iranian missiles hit several key military sites across the country during the recent 12-day war, The Telegraph reported on Saturday, citing radar data.

The data, provided to the British paper by Oregon State University researchers who track bomb damage using satellite radar, indicates that six Iranian missiles hit five military facilities in the north, south, and center of Israel, including a major air base, an intelligence gathering center, and a logistics base. The extent of the reported damage is unclear.

However, the hits were not publicly reported due to heavy military censorship, according to the report. When pressed on the issue, the Israel Defense Forces, declined to comment, only saying that “all relevant units maintained functional continuity throughout the operation.”

It’s obviously understandable that a military prefers to avoid admitting various weaknesses and failures. There’s nothing surprising or wrong with that. The problem is when the media reports military disinformation despite knowing full well that the military’s press reports are not merely inaccurate, but purposefully and knowingly false.

And the reality is that a lot more than six Iranian missiles hit a lot more than five sites. This is merely the first crack in the disinformation dam.

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China Backs Iran

This might explain why the Western media is so eager to prematurely write off Xi Xinping and his influence in China.

President Xi Jinping of China just got on television in Beijing and, among other things, announced “Our strategic interests in the Middle East will no longer be threatened. We will stand with Iran.”

This is a colossal development in geopolitical matters.

China, like every other nation on earth, understands that Israel started this trouble by making a SNEAK ATTACK upon Iran.   Everyone also knows the USA entered the fray with another SNEAK ATTACK against Iranian nuclear sites.  But that conflict did not go the way the Israelis or Americans thought it would.

It is widely understood that the only reason Israel stopped attacking Iran was because they were running out of anti-ballistic-missile defenses and on the final day of fighting, a full 50% of Iranian missiles were getting through, hitting targets inside Israel.

While Israel had more than adequate ability to continue OFFENSIVE action, they were ONE DAY away from having zero DEFENSIVE ability against Iranian ballistic missiles.

So they got US President Trump to work out a ceasefire to which Iran said “If Israel stops attacking us, we will stop attacking them.”  That was the “ceasefire.”

In the days since, it is widely rumored that the conflict __IS__ going to resume, once Israel loads-up on missile defenses.  Iran is aware of this, and is doing everything it can to prepare. Complicating things further, all countries of the world also found out yesterday, the US is ceasing certain weapons shipments to Ukraine because US inventory is “starting to get too low.”   So even the US is now in weapons trouble after wasting countless weapons, ammunition, and supplies, funding the disastrous Ukraine conflict with Russia.

Now, with Israel having basically run-out of air defense missiles, and with the US “too low” in inventory to continue supplying Ukraine, China steps-up and says they will stand with Iran.

Translation: this marks the long-expected shift of US attention from Ukraine to the Middle East and from Russia to Iran. Xi is giving President Trump and the neocons fair warning that the US will not be permitted to proceed in the Middle East with the uninterrupted hand to which it is accustomed.

UPDATE: 40 J-10 Chinese fighter jets arrived in Iran today, and 20 more are on the way.

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