Tag: Middle East

Who Won the Fake War?

If the USA has to pay Iran just for the privilege of resuming diplomacy, doesn’t that indicate Iran won the first round of the Israel-Iran War?

As reported on July 31, 2025, Iran has set unprecedented preconditions for merely resuming talks with the United States: “US compensation for damage to Iranian facilities; US recognition of Iran’s sovereign right to enrich uranium.”

This isn’t negotiating—this is demanding tribute just to sit at the table.

The brilliance lies in the reversal of traditional diplomatic dynamics. Usually, concessions come during negotiations, not before them. But Iran has learned that American promises made during talks evaporate like morning dew. So why not demand concrete commitments upfront? If America balks at preliminary guarantees, it proves they were never serious about keeping their word anyway.

This approach reflects the strategic calculations I outlined in “The ministry of Silly Wars”: Iran doesn’t need these negotiations as desperately as America thinks. With China purchasing 90% of their oil and Russia providing military technology, Iran has options. The question isn’t whether Iran will negotiate—it’s whether America is willing to pay the entry fee.

The demand for compensation particularly stings American pride. It forces acknowledgment that the June 2025 strikes were aggression, not self-defense. It monetizes the damage, creating a paper trail that can’t be denied in future “misunderstandings.” Most importantly, it establishes the principle: actions have costs, and those costs must be paid before expecting diplomatic rewards.

Recognition of enrichment rights strikes even deeper. For decades, America has treated Iran’s nuclear program as inherently illegitimate, despite NPT rights. Now Iran demands this recognition as a precondition—not a negotiating point, not a concession to be earned, but a basic acknowledgment required just to begin talking. It’s diplomatic jujitsu at its finest.

It’s pretty clear that Israel is negligible militarily if Iran is forcing the USA to pay tribute before even coming to the table. It will certainly be remarkable if the period of American global hegemony fades without there even being an attempt at a Sicilian Expedition. Perhaps the last Clown Worlders in Washington are a little more rational and inclined toward self-preservation than their rhetoric would have us believe.

Although we still can’t rule out one last cavalry charge against the tanks in either the Red Sea or the South China Sea.

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France Recognizes Palestine

Clown World’s diplomatic wall is cracking. My guess is that the Israeli plans to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians and move them to Europe proved to be one final bridge too far.

The only way to resolve the Middle East conflict is through the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday. His statement followed French President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement that France will formally recognize Palestine at the UN General Assembly in September.

”Russia has always adhered to a two-state solution as the basis for resolving the Palestinian issue,” Peskov told reporters. Moscow’s recognition dates to 1988, when the Soviet Union endorsed the Palestinian declaration of independence.

According to Peskov, peace “can only be achieved by adhering to UN Security Council resolutions,” which have declared Israeli occupation in the West Bank and East Jerusalem illegal and called for a ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Macron’s decision, announced on social media, aims to advance a “just and lasting peace.” France would become the first major Western power to recognize Palestine, joining over 140 countries that already do.

Another point of observation: whenever you see rhetoric appealing to specific events, that’s a pretty good indication that the events were staged or otherwise exaggerated. The idea that Palestine, a nation that existed long before the first Zionists ever appeared in the region, doesn’t merit recognition “because of October 7th” isn’t just obviously ridiculous, it’s not even good rhetoric.

But it does tend to confirm the immediate suspicions at the time that it was a green flag, at the very least. Although why Hamas would keep trying to hold onto any hostages is completely beyond me, given that it’s the sole remaining Israeli excuse for its actions in Gaza. Unless, of course, Hamas actually thinks it’s winning, which I suppose is possible.

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Someone is All Talk

The question is, is it Iran or is it Israel?

Former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant: “Iran is preparing for a large-scale preemptive strike against Israel. We have no choice but to strike Iran again.”

Iran: “Iran has officially stated that if Israel carries out an attack or any terrorist action this time, it will be considered an official declaration of war. This time Iran will not accept any truce and will show no mercy — the strike will be delivered in such a way that nothing but ruins will remain of Israel.

Given that both sides are given to nonsensical rhetoric, it’s hard to take either side very seriously. But on the balance of things, and given the obvious imbalance of size and military power, one tends to suspect that it’s Israel. Iran has no need to prepare for a large scale preemptive strike since it was already exhausting Israel’s air defenses before the ceasefire, therefore it is likely that Gallant’s claim is false and intended to justify another preemptive strike by Israel.

Although given the complete failure of the first one, one wonders what they think they’re going to accomplish this time around.

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Iran and the 5D Chess

Larry Johnson contemplates Iran’s new stance on nuclear negotiations:

A senior Iranian political figure has told Iranian Press TV that Iran is rethinking its approach to nuclear negotiations and will not enter new talks using the same framework or agenda.

Referring to the U-S request to resume negotiations, the source emphasized that any talks must align with the real security dynamics of the region. He expressed skepticism about the US intentions for peace, stating that the goal of Washington is to disarm Iran to compensate for Israel’s weakness in the next potential war. The political figure added any new negotiations must include serious and practical guarantees including scrutiny of Israel’s nuclear and WMD programs, credible punishment of the regime (i.e., Israel) and compensation to Iran. He stressed in the absence of these conditions, negotiations will merely serve as a prelude to war. He added Tehran is willing to “offer another opportunity” but requires evidence that U.S. negotiator Witkoff is pursuing peace rather than escalation.

There you have it. Iran is willing to talk but only if the conditions outlined above are met by Washington. This means there will be no further negotiations and that Iran will busy itself preparing for the next US/Israeli attack. Iran’s requirement that Israel be subjected to the same type of scrutiny of its nuclear program as Iran is a new, but not surprising, demand. While Iran’s demands are reasonable, I cannot imagine any scenario where Trump would agree.

This is where the rubber meets the road. The Short Trump certainly appears to be in Netanyahu’s pocket. But if – and only if – the USA agrees to Iran’s conditions and forces Israel to be subject to the same inspections of its nuclear capabilities by neutral international parties for the first time, we have to at least be open to the possibility that there is some sort of more complicated scenario in play.

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It’s Not a Concentration Camp

It’s a humanitarian concentration city for Palestinians.

Israel is preparing to establish a so-called “humanitarian city” on the ruins of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, where the Palestinian enclave’s entire population is to be moved, the country’s defense minister, Israel Katz, has announced. Critics of the initiative promptly branded the “city” an internment camp and warned of potentially widespread human rights abuse.

The “humanitarian city” is expected to initially accommodate some 600,000 Palestinians – primarily displaced persons living in the coastal Mawasi area to the northwest of Rafah, Katz told reporters on Monday. Eventually, all of the estimated 2.2 million Gazans will be placed into the “city,” which is to be secured by the Israeli military from a distance and run by unspecified international organizations, the minister stated.

The Palestinians will undergo screening before being placed into the “city” to ensure no Hamas operatives slip in, Katz noted. The scheme is ultimately designed to displace the entire Gaza population and encourage it to “voluntarily emigrate” from the enclave elsewhere, the minister admitted. Those who end up in the zone will not be allowed to return to other parts of Gaza, he added.

The defense ministry has already begun planning for the zone, according to Katz.

To claim special victim status on the basis of historical events from five generations ago and use it to engage in the kind of vicious ethnic cleansing we’re witnessing in real-time now is simply unreal. And unacceptable.

This might be enough to wake up the average Boomer, though probably not the average Boomer Christian Zionist.

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Don’t Trust the Disinformation

To absolutely no one’s surprise, it turns out that Israel lied about the ineffectiveness of Iranian missile strikes:

Israel concealed that Iranian missiles hit several key military sites across the country during the recent 12-day war, The Telegraph reported on Saturday, citing radar data.

The data, provided to the British paper by Oregon State University researchers who track bomb damage using satellite radar, indicates that six Iranian missiles hit five military facilities in the north, south, and center of Israel, including a major air base, an intelligence gathering center, and a logistics base. The extent of the reported damage is unclear.

However, the hits were not publicly reported due to heavy military censorship, according to the report. When pressed on the issue, the Israel Defense Forces, declined to comment, only saying that “all relevant units maintained functional continuity throughout the operation.”

It’s obviously understandable that a military prefers to avoid admitting various weaknesses and failures. There’s nothing surprising or wrong with that. The problem is when the media reports military disinformation despite knowing full well that the military’s press reports are not merely inaccurate, but purposefully and knowingly false.

And the reality is that a lot more than six Iranian missiles hit a lot more than five sites. This is merely the first crack in the disinformation dam.

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China Backs Iran

This might explain why the Western media is so eager to prematurely write off Xi Xinping and his influence in China.

President Xi Jinping of China just got on television in Beijing and, among other things, announced “Our strategic interests in the Middle East will no longer be threatened. We will stand with Iran.”

This is a colossal development in geopolitical matters.

China, like every other nation on earth, understands that Israel started this trouble by making a SNEAK ATTACK upon Iran.   Everyone also knows the USA entered the fray with another SNEAK ATTACK against Iranian nuclear sites.  But that conflict did not go the way the Israelis or Americans thought it would.

It is widely understood that the only reason Israel stopped attacking Iran was because they were running out of anti-ballistic-missile defenses and on the final day of fighting, a full 50% of Iranian missiles were getting through, hitting targets inside Israel.

While Israel had more than adequate ability to continue OFFENSIVE action, they were ONE DAY away from having zero DEFENSIVE ability against Iranian ballistic missiles.

So they got US President Trump to work out a ceasefire to which Iran said “If Israel stops attacking us, we will stop attacking them.”  That was the “ceasefire.”

In the days since, it is widely rumored that the conflict __IS__ going to resume, once Israel loads-up on missile defenses.  Iran is aware of this, and is doing everything it can to prepare. Complicating things further, all countries of the world also found out yesterday, the US is ceasing certain weapons shipments to Ukraine because US inventory is “starting to get too low.”   So even the US is now in weapons trouble after wasting countless weapons, ammunition, and supplies, funding the disastrous Ukraine conflict with Russia.

Now, with Israel having basically run-out of air defense missiles, and with the US “too low” in inventory to continue supplying Ukraine, China steps-up and says they will stand with Iran.

Translation: this marks the long-expected shift of US attention from Ukraine to the Middle East and from Russia to Iran. Xi is giving President Trump and the neocons fair warning that the US will not be permitted to proceed in the Middle East with the uninterrupted hand to which it is accustomed.

UPDATE: 40 J-10 Chinese fighter jets arrived in Iran today, and 20 more are on the way.

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They Tell You It’s Not Real

Both /pol/ and Dr. Mark Trozzi have been warning Americans about the scenario from The National Blueprint for Biodefense that involves a bioweapon attack that kills 280,000 Americans on July 4, 2025. Now, we all know that these “hypothetical scenarios” and “training exercises” are sometimes, though not usually, cover for the launch of the real thing. But what I found most interesting, in perusing the document, was the way in which its intrinsic falsity was clearly conveyed within the document itself.

Where, my fellow Omni-Narrational Skeptic, is the clue that this urgent biodefense blueprint is pure bureaucratic fiction?

We also believe that the United States, its allies, and partners in industry, academia, and nongovernmental organizations can eliminate pandemics entirely in 10 years by fully implementing the recommendations we made in our earlier report, The Apollo Program for Biodefense. Ending pandemics is more achievable today than landing on the Moon was in 1961.

THE APOLLO PROGRAM FOR BIODEFENSE
Technology holds great promise. Within weeks of recognizing the existence of COVID-19, scientists mapped its entire genome and developed and produced vaccines faster than ever before. They accomplished these previously unimaginable feats because of forward-looking programs (e.g., Human Genome Project, advanced research programs that previously led to many vaccines currently used to treat a variety of diseases). Nonetheless, we failed to adequately harness scientific and technological capabilities, and undermined response efforts by failing to implement new strategies and defenses. We have an unknown period to address those shortcomings before the next devastating pandemic occurs.

The need to control COVID-19 created momentum to produce many technologies that we previously lacked the will and resources to pursue before the pandemic began. We need to build on that progress and push for technological advances to protect us from the next biological threat. Our Nation rises to seemingly impossible challenges by pursuing grand programs. The United States can similarly put an end to pandemics within a decade, but only with leadership, resources, and interest that go beyond technical constraints and the usual crisis-neglect cycles.

The United States should leverage basic research portfolios to study pathogens of concern, conduct pre-clinical and clinical testing of priority and prototype pathogens, develop products to detect and treat the diseases they cause. These programs must involve domestic, international, private, and public sector partners.

The Commission proposed The Apollo Program for Biodefense in 2021 to undertake targeted research and development to detect and continually trace any new pathogen from the source, distribute rapid point-of-use tests to every household and farm in the country within days of that detection, have effective treatments already in-hand, and develop and rollout vaccines in weeks rather than years. This ambitious program, at about $10 billion annually for ten years, would be a small fraction of the trillions in costs incurred by the COVID-19 pandemic and would contribute immensely to our country’s public health, economic, and national security.

As they say, space may be the final frontier, but it’s filmed in a Hollywood basement. Which means that any “biodefense” program is almost certainly cover for domestic bioattacks on the citizenry. And we can even see whom the parties we’re supposed to believe will be responsible are.

The Department of State assesses that China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia continue to engage in biological weapons-specific or dual-use research activities, and fail to comply with the BWC. New state programs can still access caches of incompletely destroyed or buried biological weapons materials from old state programs, and then smuggle them to other regions for use by today’s militaries and terrorist organizations. Weapons that once consumed a great deal of time and resources to make now take far less, and what the United States could accomplish more than 40 years ago, others can accomplish today.

Now, despite all this documentaion, I tend to doubt that there will be any bioweapon attack on July 4th, and if there is, it will, like the Covid-19 and vaccine attacks, almost certainly be less effective than intended. It also won’t be Iran who is responsible, although obviously that’s who the next false flag will be blamed upon since Clown World still can’t quite wrap its collective head around the fact that it somehow didn’t manage to trigger its long-sought US-Iran war despite multiple attacks by Israel and by the USA itself.

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Iran’s Deep Bench

Given the proclivity of both the USA and Israel to wage war through assassination and regime change, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that their enemies are now anticipating decapitation strikes, which was the section of this interview with a former Iranian general that caught my attention.

There’s the issue of the leadership vacuum the Zionist entity sought to create by assassinating leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, followed by subsequent operations. But what we witnessed instead was the strength of our armed forces: leadership positions were filled within just three to four hours, and the command structure was swiftly and efficiently reorganized. What did the people witness afterward? How do you assess the Zionist entity’s belief that creating a leadership vacuum would weaken you?

Mohsen Rezaei: I believe Israel made a grave military miscalculation. They assumed Iran was similar to Hezbollah, even though they themselves have failed to dismantle Hezbollah. They should have learned from that experience. Look at the leadership figures that have emerged within our armed forces. Major General Pakpour, for example, is an exceptionally strong field commander—courageous, with a remarkable operational vision.

Amir Hatami, who joined from the regular army, is a brave and seasoned officer. The same goes for Mr. Mousavi in the aerospace sector. And also for Mr. Mousavi who succeeded the martyred General Bagheri in the General Staff—he is a dedicated man, aligned with the resistance movement.

Though they come from the regular army, there is full coordination between them and the Revolutionary Guards. What the enemy did failed to create any structural void within the armed forces. In fact, it could be said that certain aspects have grown more effective, as recent events have shown. That’s one point.

Secondly, we now have no fewer than ten additional layers of trained commanders and officers—some from the generation that fought in the war, and others who gained valuable field experience in later years, particularly in the fight against ISIS. Many of our forces who fought in Iraq and Syria against ISIS have, through those field experiences, become akin to senior war commanders like Hussein Kharrazi and Ahmad Kazemi—young, capable leaders fully prepared to command the armed forces.

It was a profound error on the part of the Israeli military not to recognize the deep hierarchical structure and the robust bench of ready leadership within our ranks. This internal architecture and the organizational evolution of the armed forces entirely compensated for any potential gaps. In my view, this challenge has already been overcome. And in the near future, our dear people will see that those who have stepped into the shoes of our fallen leaders will ensure that no imbalance or vacuum arises in the management of the armed forces.

The high command—led by His Eminence, the Commander—is fully acquainted with each of these leaders. They have been selected with care and discernment. I am absolutely confident that there will be no void in leadership.

A very common mistake often seen throughout military history is projection, or analyzing the enemy as if it were a mirror image of one’s own forces. Both Israel and the USA have very thin strategic and command benches, which is why they assume that taking out the top layer or two of enemy leadership will lead to complete confusion and disarray.

Which, to be fair, would likely happen in the case of either country suffering the loss of its leadership. But it’s clear that Iran and China are both very well prepared in an institutional sense for rapid leadership transitions that will avoid the confusion and military paralysis that are the primary objective of decapitation strikes. Russia, perhaps not so much, which may account for the monomaniacal focus on President Putin’s well-being, although my suspicion is that his successor will be less patient with the West and more hardline.

Regime change works when you’ve got your candidate all ready and in position to assume command and negotiate a surrender. But it can’t when you don’t have a candidate, and worse, the enemy is already set up to make a series of orderly transitions if necessary.

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A Failed Modus Operandi

Simplicius believes the recent conflict suddenly ended by the US-imposed ceasefire reflects a third, and more serious, failure by the Israeli military:

It is now clear that Israel relied on a favored go-to modus operandi in its past three conflicts. Israel has now lost against Hamas, lost against Hezbollah, and lost to Iran. Each time, its face-saving strategy was to “decapitate the leadership”, particularly the well-known personalities like Nasrallah, Haniyeh, etc., and pretend this is somehow a war winning stroke.

In reality, it did nothing each time. Israel still lost the fight on the ground—or in the air, as it were, against Iran. Israel’s putrid army proved incapable of winning real conflicts and had to rely entirely on PR victories and America’s bank to fund various sabotage and extortion schemes against enemy political and military figures.

Think about it this way: in ten or twenty years, what will be remembered about today, the names of a few random “Iranian generals” that Israel “masterfully killed” via cowardly sneak attacks, or the fact that Israeli cities burned for the first time, Israel failed to defang Iran’s nuclear program, and flopped at every other major objective it had, including regime change?

The fact is, Israel suffered an historic humiliation that has destroyed its mystique and reputation as some kind of ‘military juggernaut’ forever. Iran can now learn from its mistakes, rebuild the few launchers and AD systems it lost, and potentially sign new pacts with Russia-China that can expand its defense capabilities.

It is interesting, however, that Iran’s airforce did not seem to participate at all—some experts suggest Iran likely relocated it entirely to the far east of the country and simply kept it out of harm’s way for the duration. Given that Israel’s air-farce was also a no-show over the country, one supposes it wasn’t an altogether bad idea.

In fact, Iran masterfully conserved its limitations and leveraged its greatest advantages during this conflict, thus limiting the damage it suffered. Too bad we’ll never know the full extent of Iran’s missile capabilities given how desperately Israel guarded any ‘sensitive’ damage leaks about the strikes on its territory. But due to how uncharacteristically quickly Israel leaped at the ceasefire offer, logic dictates that the damage Iran meted was significant and unsustainable.

In the aftermath of a narrowly-avoided disaster, we should keep in mind the Israeli triumphalism from less than two weeks ago:

  • The decision to start a war was all Netanyahu’s. And here he is, deciding and responsible: all the credit is his. Trump gave Israel the green light to start a war, provided that it does not present America as a partner and responsible. – Nahum Barnea (Yedioth Ahoronot)
  • The need for the series of assassinations last week first emerged as a thought last September, among senior officials in Unit 8200, the research division in the Intelligence Directorate, the Mossad, and other parts of the system. The trigger was the defeat inflicted by the IDF on Hezbollah, followed by the successful attack on Iran and the destruction of its air defence system in October, followed in December by the collapse of the Assad regime in Damascus and the destruction of its air defence system by the IDF. The sequence of events led many senior Israeli officials to believe that an unprecedented opportunity had arisen, a window of a lifetime, to attack Iran. – Ronan Bergman (Yedioth Ahoronot)
  • Ten days ago, on the eve of Israel’s historic action, I stood here and placed a note that read: ‘Behold, a nation shall rise like a lion’. Now, ten days later, I return to the same place and leave a note that reads: ‘Behold, a nation has risen like a lion – the Nation of Israel lives!’ – Benjamin Netanyahu

And just like that, in less than two weeks, the window of a lifetime is closed. The thinking of the senior Israeli officials appears to have been very much as an Israeli who knows his country’s elite and is well-versed in their thinking once described it to me: tactical cleverness with neither interest in nor aptitude for strategy.

The fundamental problem that Israel, as a country, and AIPAC as a political control device, have is that rhetoric, subversion, and clever tactical maneuvers only work so long as you’re not actually responsible for making things work, feeding everyone, keeping the lights on, and actually winning wars rather than a skirmish here and there. The reason Israel – and the Israel-influenced USA – always rely on regime change instead of military victory as the primary objective is because they are locked into a subversive and short-term mindset.

But sooner or later, when those who are influenced over inevitably comprehend that your grand plans for the future requires not only their suppression, but elimination, they’re not going to respond favorably to all the subversion anymore. Which is why Clown World lost Russia, why it lost China, and why it will lose America as soon as the indoctrinated Boomers lose their political and societal influence. No amount of belief in one’s intrinsic superiority or sociopathic indifference to everyone else, however genuine, are ever going to compensate for a complete inability to run a stand-alone society, let alone a regional empire. But no failing empire, however small, ever fades away gently into the historical night.

Translation: false flags are coming. The assumption is New York City, given the growing hysteria over Zohran Mamdani’s apparent victory in the Democratic primary for the Mayor’s office, and the sinking of the USS Nimitz, but they could take place in anywhere, in any form.

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