Trump takes lead in Florida

Mirabile dictu, the poll gap is closing! Who could have ever seen that coming?

Donald Trump has a slim advantage in Florida as critical independent voters narrowly break his way in the must-win battleground state, a Bloomberg Politics poll shows. The Republican presidential nominee has 45 percent to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 43 percent among likely voters when third-party candidates are included, the poll found. In a hypothetical two-way race, Trump has 46 percent to Clinton’s 45 percent. Florida, one of two states Trump calls home, is rated by major election forecasters as a toss-up or leaning toward Clinton.

And now Pennsylvania is, miraculously, unexpectedly, in play:

The candidates in the General Election for President of the United States are the Republican Donald Trump, the Democrat Hillary Clinton and the Libertarian Gary Johnson or someone else. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? 


Donald Trump:42%
Hillary Clinton:45%
Gary Johnson:5%
Someone else:1%
Undecided:7%


Isn’t it remarkable how the independents are, only now, beginning to make up their minds? Why, whatever happened to the media narrative that the election was already over and Hillary was going to win by 14 percentage points?

Do you think, perhaps, just maybe, that it wasn’t true?



The cost of corporate convergence

Money-losing Twitter is cutting jobs. What will be interesting is if all of the Trust and Safety Council member and other SJWs still have jobs after the job cuts.

Twitter Inc. is planning widespread job cuts, to be announced as soon as this week, according to people familiar with the matter. The company may cut about 8 percent of the workforce, or about 300 people, the same percentage it did last year when co-founder Jack Dorsey took over as chief executive officer, the people said. Planning for the cuts is still fluid and the number could change, they added. 

It’s always easy to see the extent to which a corporation is converged when it engages in layoffs. If engineers and salespeople are let go while diversity hires and HR personnel remain employed, the convergence is complete.

The success of Gab, accomplished on a shoe string, can’t be helping the Twitter cause any. Where is the value in a money-losing company with such demonstrably low barriers to entry? Particularly when that company is converged and prone to attacking its customers.


The New Yorker on Mike Cernovich

Andrew Marantz wrote a surprisingly balanced article about Castalia author Mike Cernovich for The New Yorker:

Walter Cronkite was once the most trusted man in America; in 2013, according to a Reader’s Digest survey, the most trusted person was Tom Hanks. “Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Walter Cronkite lied about everything,” Cernovich said. “Before Twitter, how would you have known? Look, I read postmodernist theory in college. If everything is a narrative, then we need alternatives to the dominant narrative.” He smiled. “I don’t seem like a guy who reads Lacan, do I?”

I’ll admit it, I laughed. Milo is obviously brilliant. Stefan is obviously brilliant. I can obviously hold my own. And Mike… Mike is considerably smarter than he allows people to assume him to be. We don’t consider him a peer because he has a sizeable following; Kim Kardashian has a following.

Around 3:30 p.m., he announced that he was done for the day. “I’ll go to the gym, relax for a bit,” he said. Before closing his laptop, he checked his direct messages on Twitter, and found a tip alleging that, in 2014, a Reddit user had asked for help removing a “VERY VIP” e-mail address “from a bunch of archived e-mail.” The tipster claimed that the Reddit user was Paul Combetta, one of Hillary Clinton’s I.T. staffers. Cernovich clicked the link to the Reddit thread and noticed that it had been deleted. “Son of a bitch!” he said. “This might actually be true.”

He returned to muckraking mode. “We’re going to make a whole new news cycle about her fucking e-mails again!” he said. “This poor fucking woman.” He started a new Periscope video. “What do you guys want to do for a hashtag?” he said. He decided on #HillarysHacker. It was trending before he finished the video. That day, more than forty-two thousand tweets were posted with the hashtag.

I returned to Cernovich’s house the next morning. By then, the Reddit story had been covered by Vice and New York, and a congressman had asked prosecutors in Washington, D.C., to look into it.

Few things make more of an impression than a called home run. This was a particularly effective demonstration of generating a media cycle because the reporter had the chance to see Mike’s process at work. He knew it was no mere coincidence that the media cycle had magically taken shape.

Shauna, of course, comes off as charming and delightful as ever. It’s a pity, though, that Marantz didn’t know that the bestselling MAGA Mindset beat Hillary Clinton’s own book in its own category of Political Leadership.

Because that wasn’t an accident either.


It’s not a question of IF the polls are false

But rather, the degree to which they are falsified:

Now, for all of you out there who still aren’t convinced that the polls are “adjusted”, we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to “manufacture” the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on “oversamples for polling” in order to “maximize what we get out of our media polling.”

I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations.  In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

Research, microtargeting & polling projects
–  Over-sample Hispanics
–  Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)
–  Over-sample the Native American population

For Florida, the report recommends “consistently monitoring” samples to makes sure they’re “not too old” and “has enough African American and Hispanic voters.”  Meanwhile, “independent” voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.


–  Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.
–  On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

Meanwhile, it’s suggested that national polls over sample “key districts / regions” and “ethnic” groups “as needed.”


–  General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions
–  Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed
–  Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed

It is not “wishful thinking” to distrust the polls. Nor is there a “natural tightening up” of the polls as election day approaches. The entire polling industry is an exercise in attempted manipulation of public opinion. That’s why there is so much media attention focused on it.

The Podesta email doesn’t merely prove that the poll-doubters are right to be dubious about their credibility, but demonstrates, once more, that the conspiracy theory of history is the only one that can properly account for historical events.

Moreover, the media narrative claiming that Hillary’s win is inevitable is nothing more than the First Law of SJW in action:

A confidential memo allegedly obtained from Correct The Record, a Democratic Super PAC, reveals a plan to “barrage” voters with high frequency polls that show Hillary ahead in order to “declare election over,” while avoiding any mention of the Brexit vote (which completely contradicted polls that said Brexit would fail).

Pursuant to which….


The One True Ring of Evil

The Bucknell Bubble has inadvertently produced a series of right-wing dissidents:

Frequent Fox News guest Michael Malice stopped by The Milo Show this week where he discussed his experience at Bucknell University, an institution which he claimed was ripe with anti-intellectualism and elitist snobbery.

Malice lambasted Bucknell’s culture of anti-intellectualism, claiming that students and faculty rarely engaged with ideas that conflicted with their worldview during his time at the university. I highlighted this in February when I compared the warm embrace the university gave a guest speaker from the Black Panther Party who had a history of violent rhetoric with the reception received by the relatively harmless provocateur Milo Yiannopoulos, whose visit inspired hostility from both faculty and students.

Malice partially attributed the culture of anti-intellectualism to the radicalism that dominated many of the university’s departments.  “The head of the economics department when I was there was a feminist Marxist, and one of her themes was ‘since the laws of economics were discovered by men, they are inherently sexist and need to be rediscovered by women.’”

Like many students, Malice expected his university experience to be intellectually stimulating. Always a skeptic, Malice hope to challenge his own views, as well as the views of others. Instead, Malice claims that his peers rarely ventured outside of their intellectual bubbles. “No critical thought. These are the same people who 30 years ago said ‘you’re eating raw fish, what is wrong with you?’ And now, ‘I’m a foodie, you gotta go to this place, they have the freshest stuff.”

Yiannopoulos and Malice discussed the series of dissidents that have passed through the gates of Bucknell University over the past 20 years. “What’s weird is that it seems there is a one true ring that gets passed down. Vox Day was there eight years before me. And then right between Vox Day and me was Evan Coyne Maloney, who was called the right-wing Michael Moore, he did a film called IndoctrinateU.”

“And now they’ve got Tom Ciccotta,” Milo added.

Yiannopoulos and Malice suggested that the university’s continued failure to provide a complete education will only give rise to more conservative and libertarian Bucknell dissidents. “I love the idea that the President of Bucknell is always between right-wing shitlords, is sitting there just wondering which of their fresh-faced intake is going to rear his head as the new evil monster,” Yiannopoulos said.

One of my professors informed me about fifteen years ago that BU’s crackdown on the Greek system, which began my sophomore year and picked up significantly the year after I graduated, had an unexpectedly negative consequence of reducing the average SAT scores among incoming freshmen. Apparently, all the “brilliant fuck-ups”, to use his description, who had once preferred what was then a party school like Bucknell to the uptight atmosphere of the Ivies, no longer saw any reason to attend what had been transformed into just another Ivy League wannabe with a pretty campus in the middle of nowhere.

It used to be a place for Ivy League rejects, rich and pretty Greek legacies, and smart kids who liked to party, but now only the rejects remain.

I can’t speak for anyone else, but I know that I took one look at Princeton and was ready to leave after five minutes, even before our pompous tour guide waxed eloquent about all-male eating clubs. MIT was, of course, a complete non-starter; we made a perfunctory visit so my father could see his old stomping grounds. At Bucknell, a pretty sorority girl was my tour guide, and she invited me to come to a Kappa Kappa Gamma party. Easy choice. But if I was choosing a college these days, I doubt I’d even bother visiting Lewisburg. What would be the point? If you’re going to subject yourself to four joyless years of grim SJW indoctrination, you should at least be rewarded with a name-brand diploma with which you can torment SJWs saddled with lesser degrees.

There were some early signs of convergence taking place while I was there. I remember how weird I thought it was when the administration began pushing “diversity” in my junior year. Diversity? At Bucknell? What diversity? The only diversity to be found was in my sprinter-jumper-hurdler group and on the football team. We were innocents back then, and we had no idea what that signified at the time.

Anyhow, it amuses me that of my entire class, Doug Lebda and I are the two alumni deemed notable by Wikipedia. What a horrible embarrassment that must be for the university. Needless to say, I’ve never been invited back there to speak.


Nothing is sacred, nothing is safe

From SJWs. They insist on injecting their filth into EVERYTHING they encounter:

Kara Desiderio and her partner Kristina Wertz’s 13-month-old daughter loves Hello magazine for toddlers. The problem: The publication, which is owned by Highlights for Children, has yet to depict same-sex couples anywhere in its pages. So on Friday, October 14, Wertz took to the Highlights for Children Facebook page to express her concern.

“One of the reasons we appreciate Hello is the diversity represented — families of all races, interracial families and grandparents,” Wertz wrote. “We are consistently disappointed, however, in the complete lack of same-sex parents in Hello magazine. I think a lot about the things that create culture — the subtle and not so subtle messages that our kids get about how the world works. Since becoming a parent, I feel keenly aware of the messages kids’ books send to tiny minds.”

Wertz continued: “There is a deep need for books that positively reflect back the diversity of the world around us and I hope that Highlights embraces that diversity because we would like to keep it in our little one’s life as she grows.”

The Hudson, New York–based mom didn’t get the response she was hoping for. “We understand your wish to see your family’s situation represented in Highlights Hello,” wrote a Highlights for Children editor. “For much of our readership, the topic of same-sex families is still new, and parents are still learning how to approach the subject with their children, even the very little ones. We believe that parents know best when their family is ready top open conversation around the topic of same-sex families.” The staffer added: “We will continue to think deeply about inclusion — specifically, how to address it in developmentally appropriate ways for our broad audience.”

Needless to say, because the publisher was dumb enough to offer to “think deeply about inclusion”, that has only increased the SJW pressure on them. The excuse for targeting them is because they used the word “situation”. Nothing is too small or petty to justify a convergence campaign!

And if Highlights is foolish enough to cave and converge, it is going to quickly find out how much of their readership is not going to tolerate even a modicum of SJW filth, no matter how “developmentally appropriate” it is.

SJW delenda est. Never give them an inch. Never give them anything.


The national polls: stretch run

Notice something very informative about the wildly divergent national polls?

  • Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Quinnipiac Clinton 47, Trump 40, Johnson 7, Stein 1 Clinton +7
  • Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Clinton 40, Trump 41, Johnson 8, Stein 6 Trump +1
  • Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Bloomberg Clinton 47, Trump 38, Johnson 8, Stein 3 Clinton +9
  • Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Economist/YouGov Clinton 42, Trump 38, Johnson 6, Stein 1 Clinton +4
  • Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Reuters/Ipsos Clinton 42, Trump 38, Johnson 6, Stein 2 Clinton +4
  • Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Rasmussen Reports Clinton 42, Trump 42, Johnson 7, Stein 1 Tie

The number of percentage points being allocated to Johnson and Stein is between 7 and 14. In 2012, the combined Libertarian/Green vote was 1.35 percent. In 2008, it was 0.96 percent.

Now, let’s be generous and pretend that the combined Libertarian/Green vote will be 2 percent, which would be a 48 percent increase from 2012 and 108 percent from 2008. That means that the national polls are, at a minimum, off by between 5 and 12 points.

I can’t say that there is evidence of a Trumpslide at this point. On the other hand, I can’t take seriously the evidence that suggests Hillary Clinton is going to win by Mondalean proportions either. The trick, I think, will be to watch what happens as the polls go into the final week. If they tighten dramatically, that means the pollsters have been playing games and are attempting to cover themselves, which suggests Trump will win. That’s what happened with Brexit.

If, on the other hand, the polls continue to indicate significant leads for Hillary, that means they are not concerned about their accuracy and will tend to suggest a Hillary win, albeit a little closer than they’re predicting.

UPDATE: Trump appears to have revived his momentum again. Remember, he pushes, then coasts, pushes, then coasts. It looks like he’s gearing up for the stretch run.

It’s too early to measure the impact of last night’s final presidential debate, but Republican Donald Trump now has a three-point lead nationally on Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online White House Watch survey finds Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 40%. 


Fox News: Assange will be arrested soon

Fox News Just Reported That Julian Assange “Will Be Arrested In A Matter Of Hours”

Just watched the video. They did say it, although they may be getting it from the same 4chan source that I linked to yesterday.

“Can’t we just drone this guy?”
– Hillary Clinton, 23 November 2010

“Faced with the speculation of the last few hours, the Government of Ecuador ratifies the validity of the asylum granted to Julian Assange four years ago.  We reaffirm that his protection by the Ecuadorean state will continue while the circumstances that led to the granting of asylum remain.”
– Guillaume Long, Foreign Minister, Ecuador