Tag: Hugo Award

“The big winners were the Rabid Puppies”

I always find it amusing how the media is always quick to point out that NK Jemisin is black, but they never seem to mention the fact that I am an American Indian. Perhaps I need to publicly exhibit more scalps. They also never get around to mentioning why I was criticizing the ignorant, half-savage Jemisin, which is because she is a) a low-IQ cretin, b) a liar, and, c) had repeatedly attacked me sans provocation or even knowledge of who she was.

Rabid Puppies leader Vox Day, a self-described libertarian, has criticized best-selling science fiction writer N.K. Jemisin, who is black, as  an “ignorant half-savage,” writing, “Unlike the white males she excoriates, there is no evidence to be found anywhere on the planet that a society of NK Jemisins is capable of building an advanced civilization, or even successfully maintaining one without significant external support from those white males.”

George R.R. Martin has criticized both the puppies’ agenda and their aesthetic. “When the Hugo ballot came out last year, it was not just a right-wing ballot, it was a bad ballot,” he told the Guardian prior to Tuesday’s finalist announcement.

The Rabid Puppies, the more extreme of the two groups, this year created a slate of potential nominees that they urged Hugo voters to nominate. Out of 81 recommendations on that slate, 64 ended up shortlisted.

Day, who calls himself “Supreme Dark Lord, Evil Legion of Evil,” wasted no time in gloating. A news release sent by Day reads in part: “‘I’m not even remotely surprised to learn that the Rabid Puppies did so well,’ said Vox Day, as he mopped his brow with the flayed skin of an SJW after an arduous night of celebrating his fourth and fifth nominations.”

That being said, full props to Mr. Schaub, who did his research, provided a grammatically correct quote about Jemisin instead of a cherry-picked sentence fragment, and actually quoted the Bloggerblaster.

He’s not on our side, obviously, and yet it’s a much better article than most. The only thing he really got wrong is the idea that I expected Chuck Tingle’s nomination to outrage my critics. I don’t give a quantum of a damn what my critics thought about it. Some things are worth doing simply because they are amusing.

I should also point out that I don’t call myself “Supreme Dark Lord”. That is merely how I am acknowledged by the Evil Legion of Evil, and, of course, the Vile Faceless Minions.

Meanwhile, George RR Martin completely fails to realize that he is already playing my game as he contemplates the 2016 Hugo Awards:

The big winners were the Rabid Puppies, whose choices completely
dominated the list. The Rabids had nominees in every category, I
believe, and in a few categories they had ALL the
nominees…. The Rabids used a new tactic this year. They nominated
legitimate, quality works in addition to the dross. Works by writers
like Stephen King, Neil Gaiman, Neal Stephenson, Alastair Reynolds
(Reynolds went public well before the nominations asking NOT to be
slated, but they slated him anyway), Andy Weir, and several others. Some
of these writers are apolitical (like Weir), while others are known to
oppose everything that VD stands for (Gaiman, Stephenson, King). One has
to think they were deliberately targeted.

In some of
the online comments I’ve seen, these writers are being called “shields.”
I’ve even read some people calling for them to withdraw, simply because
they were on VD’s list.

Withdrawing is the LAST thing they should do.

I
urge them all to stand their ground. They wrote good books, stories,
graphic novels, they did NOT take part in any slate. In some cases they
were largely unaware of all this. In other cases they explicitly
denounced the slates ahead of time (Reynolds, again). Punishing them…
demanding they turn down this honor… simply because VD listed them is
insane.

Marko Kloos and Annie Bellet did the right
thing by withdrawing last year. Their was an ethical and courageous act;
I applauded them then and I applaud them now. But this is a different
year and a different situation. Given the well-known political views of
some of these writers, it seems plain to me that VD and the Rabids
picked them deliberately, in hopes they would withdraw, or would be
voted under No Award. They would probably have put Scalzi (VD’s best
bro) on the ballot too, but he outsmarted them and withdrew before they
could.

I am rather hoping that several of them win.
Based on quality alone, some deserve to. Sure, VD will claim that as a
victory, but as last year proves, he claims everything as a victory.
We’ll know the truth. The only real victory for him would be having any
of these fine writers pull out. Let’s not play his game.

It’s
always amusing to see people like Rape Rape, who has no idea
whatsoever  about my motivations, my strategies, or my objectives,
trying to declare what my victory conditions are, and how it is impossible for me to reach them.

I desperately want to win Hugos. I don’t care about the Hugos. I want to destroy the Hugos. It pains me to have to point out that they obviously can’t all be correct.

Interview with a dark lord

Louise Mensch of Heat Street interviewed me about the Hugos, Donald Trump, the SJW List, and other matters:

Interview: The Rabid Puppies And Vox Day Bite the Hugo Awards

Tell me about the Hugo Awards. Are the Sad Puppies still sad?

The Sad Puppies are, to all intents and purposes, irrelevant. They have been replaced by the Rabid Puppies, mostly thanks to the egregiously obnoxious behavior of the SJWs in science fiction at the 2015 Hugo Awards ceremony. That converted most of the Sad Puppies to Rabid Puppies, which is why the Rabid Puppies accounted for 62 64 shortlist nominations of the 80 we recommended this year. The SF-SJWs said they were sending a message last year, and the message we heard was “bring more Puppies”. So we did.

You were nominated for Best Editor and SJWs Always Lie was nominated for Best Related Work. Congratulations!

Thank you so much. But the two nominations I’m most pleased about are Jerry Pournelle’s long-overdue Best Editor nomination for his There Will Be War series, and, of course, Chuck Tingle’s “Space Raptor Butt Invasion”. We’re taking diversity in science fiction to a whole new level there.

Read the whole thing at Heat Street.

Making the Hugos great again

 A roundup of reactions to the Rabid Puppies rampaging through the 2016 Hugo Awards. Jerry Pournelle’s nomination alone makes the whole effort worthwhile:

I seem to have been nominated for a Hugo. “Best Editor, Short Form”. The only work mentioned for the year 2015 is There Will Be War, Volume X” released in November. It is of course a continuation of the There Will Be War series which appeared in the 1980’s and early 90’s, of which the first four volumes were recreated with a new preface during 2015; the rest are scheduled to come out in the next couple of years. I’ve edited a lot of anthologies, starting with 2020 Vision in 1973 (I think it will come out in reprint with new a introduction and afterword’s by the surviving authors next year. I did a series of anthologies with Jim Baen that was pretty popular, and one-off anthologies like Black Holes and The Survival of Freedom, amounting to more than twenty over the years, but this is the first time anyone has ever nominated me for an editing Hugo – and actually the first time I ever thought of it myself.

When I first started in this racket, Best Editor Hugo usually meant one for the current editor of Analog or Galaxy. That spread around over the years, but it meant Editor in the sense of someone employed with the title of Editor, not a working writer who put together anthologies, sometimes for a lark.

I used to get Hugo nominations all the time in my early days, but I never won. My Black Holes story came close, but I lost to Niven’s “Hole Man”. Ursula LeGuin beat me for novella. There were others. Our collaborations routinely got nominated, but again usually came second, so at one point I was irked enough to say “Money will get you through times of no Hugo’s much better than Hugo’s will get you through times of no money,” and put whatever promotion efforts I had time for into afternoon and late night talk radio shows and stuff like that. Which worked for sales, but not for Hugo awards. I’m unlikely to get this one – I’m a good editor but that’s hardly my primary occupation – but I admit I’d like to. I was already going to Kansas City this August, so I’ll be there, but I doubt there’s much need to write a thank you speech.

One of the reasons I never paid any attention to the Hugos in the past was due to their tendency to overlook excellence such as the There Will Be War series, one of the best and most influential science fiction anthologies series ever created. I’m delighted we were able to pay collective homage to the SF great; having worked closely with him over the past year, I can testify that he is still a much better editor than most of the award-winning editors of the past 30 years.

David Barnett’s story in The Guardian was almost balanced and mostly stuck to the facts, which is rather remarkable considering that he is a Tor author. Sure, there are a few errors, such as the fact that SJWs Always Lie is a political philosophy bestseller, not “an essay”, and “parody of erotic dinosaur fiction” is redundant, but he also, almost uniquely, went to the trouble of asking me what I thought about the awards, rather than asking my opponents what they imagined I thought.

It would appear that Barnett actually understood what I told him about the consequences of last year’s ludicrous media coverage, and applied that understanding. “I think they [the Puppies campaigns] have successfully exposed the
extent of the ideological bias in science fiction and fantasy
publishing, and in the media. The media coverage last year was so insane
and so over the top that it significantly boosted support for the Rabid
Puppies.”

The annual Hugo awards for the best science fiction of the year have once again been riven by controversy, as a concerted campaign by a conservative lobby has dominated the ballot.

The Sad Puppies and Rabid Puppies movements, which both separately campaign against a perceived bias towards liberal and leftwing science-fiction and fantasy authors, have managed to get the majority of their preferred nominations on to the final ballot, announced today.

This means that voters on the prestigious awards will now be choosing from a shortlist which includes SJWs Always Lie, an essay about “social justice warriors” by Rabid Puppies campaign leader Vox Day; a self-published parody of erotic dinosaur fiction called Space Raptor Butt Invasion, by Chuck Tingle; and My Little Pony cartoon The Cutie Map….

The Puppies factions will undoubtedly be celebrating their successes on the ballot, but for many people engaged in the science-fiction and fantasy genres this news will not be well-received. The Hugo awards, once the watchword of quality in the SFF world, appear to have been utterly derailed for the second year running.

Another Tor author, McRapey, was up to his usual tricks, attempting to minimize everything, including his own award-pimping and campaigning. Isn’t it fascinating how many Tor authors are out there attempting to shape the media narrative? How utterly unexpected!

The Hugo finalists: John Scalzi on why the sad puppies can’t take credit for Neil Gaiman’s success

The Puppies will no doubt be happy to take credit for the appearance of these works and others on the finalist list. But, as with “Guardians of the Galaxy” last year, their endorsement probably doesn’t count for much in the grand scheme of things. “Seveneves,” one of the most talked-about science fiction books of 2015, was already a heavy favorite for an appearance on the finalist list for best novel.

Likewise, Gaiman’s long-awaited return to the beloved Sandman universe means his finalist listing in best graphic novel was the closest thing to a shoo-in that the Hugos have. If “The Martian” hadn’t been a finalist in its category (best dramatic presentation, long form), people would have been stunned.

In these cases as in several others, the Puppies are running in front of an existing parade and claiming to lead it. Few who know the field or the Hugos would give the slates credit for highlighting works and authors already well-appreciated in the genre, many of which have appeared this year as finalists for other awards or on bestseller lists.

Of course the Sad Puppies can’t take any credit for Neil Gaiman’s nomination. The Rabid Puppies were responsible! As for whether Gaiman would have been nominated without RP support, they like to claim that sort of thing, but we’ll have to wait and see what the numbers say. Given their past record of ignoring popular, bestselling works, that’s hardly a given. In any event, as we proved last year in Best Novel, even when we don’t control the category, we still have the ability to decide who will win and who will lose when the SJWs don’t No Award the category.

In other news, we have a runner! Tom Mays belatedly decided to go the way of Marko Kloos. Not the brightest move; the time for virtue-signaling is before the nominations are awarded. It’s no big deal, not everyone can take the heat, although I suspect Tom is simply more of a Sad Puppy who hasn’t woken up to the cultural war yet. I was more interested to see that Black Gate caved and decided to accept their nomination this year; John O’Neill is a smart guy, he knows perfectly well that the nomination is well-merited, he grasps the genetic fallacy, and I suspect he has come to terms with the fact that the Rabid Puppies are not going away any time soon.

It’s a bit amusing to see the SJWs suggesting hopefully that EPH is going to somehow “solve” the “problem of the Puppies”. Do they really think I didn’t know, from the start, that they were going to change the rules? Or that I don’t know, better than they do, what the consequences will be?

The real question of this year’s awards is on what basis the administrators disqualified all five computer game nominations in the Best Dramatic Presentation categories. That bears investigation. But these are minor concerns, as for me the three most important factors are these:

  1.  The rocks are being overturned and the long-hidden problem of pedophilia in science fiction is finally beginning to be exposed. This is the real story.
  2.  Jerry Pournelle being recognized for his excellent and ground-breaking editorial work.
  3. SPACE RAPTOR BUTT INVASION!

I don’t know if we’ll see more than five categories no-awarded this year, but it doesn’t matter. They didn’t think the Rabid Puppies could do it this year, but once more, the Puppies demonstrated that the SJW Narrative is a false one and the oft-repeated insistence that everyone subscribes to it is a lie.

I also sent out a press release:

RABID PUPPIES
Make the 2016 Hugos Great

Much
to the surprise of the social justice warriors in the science fiction
community, who believed stern disapproval and a record voter turnout
would suffice to leash the Rabid Puppies, the nominations for the 2016
Hugo Awards were once more dominated by the corybantic canines. 64 of
the Supreme Dark Lord’s 81 recommendations made the 2016 shortlist, an
increase of 6 from last year’s 58 finalists.

“I’m not even remotely surprised to learn that the Rabid Puppies did so
well,” said Vox Day, as he mopped his brow with the flayed skin of an
SJW after an arduous night of celebrating his fourth and fifth
nominations. “For over 20 years, the mainstream science-fiction
publishers have been trying to pass off romance in space and left-wing
diversity lectures as science fiction. Support for the Puppies is a
popular reaction to mediocrities and absurdities being presented as the
very best that the field has to offer.”

Many of the finalists were delighted by the news. Chuck Tingle, author
of “Space Raptor Butt Invasion”, nominated for Best Short Story,
tweeted: “understand #HUGOAWARDS nominate Space Raptor Butt Invasion as best book ever. This PROVES that we exhist in the first layer of tingleverse!”

Others were less pleased. Tor Books author David Barnett declared in The Guardian:
“The Hugo awards, once the watchword of quality in the SFF world,
appear to have been utterly derailed for the second year running.”

Some of the more notable Hugo Award finalists include:

  • Moira
    Greyland’s account of her childhood abuse at the hands of her mother,
    the award-winning science fiction writer Marion Zimmer Bradley,
    nominated in Best Related Work.
  • SF great Jerry Pournelle, whose groundbreaking There Will Be War series returned after a 25-year absence due to the end of the Cold War, nominated in Best Editor, Short Form.
  • “Space
    Raptor Butt Invasion” by Chuck Tingle, a sensuous space romance that is
    a tribute to true diversity in science fiction, nominated in Best Short
    Story.
  • SJWs Always Lie: Taking Down the Thought Police, the political philosophy bestseller by Vox Day, nominated in Best Related Work.
  • My Little Pony, Friendship is Magic, Season 5, Episodes 1-2, “The Cutie Map”, nominated in Best Dramatic Presentation, Short Form.

The official list of the finalists in all 16 categories, including the
2016 Campbell Award for Best New Writer, can be found here: 2016 Hugo Nominations.

“Swept by Anti-SJW Authors — Again!”

Allum Bohkari counts up the categories:

This year, the Sad and Rabid Puppies have done it again. Ten out of fifteen Hugo Award categories have been completely dominated by Puppy-endorsed nominees — double what the campaigns achieved in 2015. The Puppies have also secured three out of five nominations for Best Novel, three out of four nominations for Best Short-Form Dramatic Presentation, and three out of five nominations for Best Long-Form Editor.

In total, the Rabid Puppies swept six categories on their own, while a combination of Sad & Rabid puppy nominations swept a further four.

Some of the Rabid Puppies nominations this year — such as a My Little Pony episode for Best Short-Form Dramatic Presentation and a porn parody in Best Short Story — seem clearly intended as troll options, a demonstration of the Puppies’ power to exert their will on the awards.

That seems unlikely, considering that we have been repeatedly, and reliably, informed that the Puppies are irrelevant. I think the only convincing explanation is that no one can reasonably deny the literary merit of future science fiction classics such as “Space Raptor Butt Invasion”.

This comment from Al was enough to make even a dark lord smile:

What is weird about all this as that in the entire spectrum of the culture wars a group of scifi nerds, fantasy geeks and video game enthusiasts are winning……they are actually taking ground back from the left and they aren’t stopping for sh$t…these guys take scalps, burn their enemies bodies, and p!ss on their ashes and move on to the next target of total annihilation..they are unmerciful and brutal………beautiful…many people on the right should take notice…this is a case study in winning and what winning is……something the right sorely needs to learn….

Join the pack. We’ll teach you how to howl.

They can’t say we didn’t warn them

Some of you may recall this back on August 23, 2015:


No doubt George Martin, John Scalzi, David Gerrold, The Guardian, and
the rest of the SJWs will try to portray this as a resounding defeat for
us, but keep this in mind: the side that resorts to a scorched earth
strategy is the one that is losing and in retreat. All they have
accomplished is to convert many Sad Puppies into Rabid Puppies.

 
They have talked about sending us a message, and we have heard it. I
don’t know about you, but the message I heard was “bring more Puppies.”

Give them credit where it is due. They made a serious effort, leading to 4,032 nominating ballots this year, nearly twice as many as last year’s record total. It didn’t matter. We heard the message. We brought more Puppies.

Well done, all of you Rabids. Very well done. According to Mike Glyer, the Rabid Puppies placed 64 of its 81 recommendations on the final ballot. I understand we actually would have done a little better than that were it not for the odd withdrawal or disqualification. (I’ll do my own count tomorrow; David Barnett had it at 62 of 80 in the Guardian.) You understand, as the other side does not, that there is no end to cultural war. They still think we can be intimidated, or shamed, or guilted somehow, because those are the tactics that have worked for their kind for decades, if not generations.


But we are immune to such things. Let them scoff, let them minimize, let them posture, let them cry, it makes absolutely no difference what they do or what they say. There is nothing that they can do except vote No Award and change the rules. 


We have succeeded in breaking the Tor cabal’s deleterious death grip on science fiction. Next year, the next phase will begin. And we will be ready for it.

Are you not entertained? And more importantly, are you in?

Stop! Puppy Time!

If you can get away, work at home, or have a sufficiently relaxed employer, don’t hesitate to join us at the Rabid Puppy Hugo Nomination Party, being held at Brainstorm today. The Party kicks off at 12:30 Eastern; the shortlist announcements are scheduled to start at 1 PM. Everyone is invited, so register here if you want to join the party.

Considering that we had a great time being No Awarded last August, I can guarantee that we’ll have a good time whether we sweep the whole damn thing or we are skunked. I’ve already got a very good bottle of red wine awaiting the ritual uncorking, so you may want to contemplate your own libationary strategy.

Also, if you happen to see the vote totals being reported, please write them down.

500 more votes

MidAmericaCon II reports more than 4,000 nominating votes for the 2016 Hugo Awards:

Over 4,000 nominating ballots were received for the 2016 Hugo Awards, nearly doubling the previous record of 2,122 ballots set last year by Sasquan, the 73rd Worldcon held in Spokane, WA.

I would assume that this bodes poorly for the Rabid Puppies, as it tends to indicate a stronger turnout by the No Awards than predicted by Chaos Horizon. His prediction assumed 3,620 nominating votes, about 500 short of what we will assume was 4,100 votes.

So, I have to conclude that expectations of a second-straight Puppy sweep are highly unlikely, although we will likely get a few nominations where there is an amount of crossover appeal. If the vote had come in around 3,000, I would have felt reasonably confident. Over 4,000 and I tend to doubt the 500-strong Rabid Puppy vote can compete effectively with what has become an increasingly uniform SF-SJW vote until EPH passes.

However, this still indicates a high probability of an entirely satisfactory result, as our primary goal was to break the Tor cabal’s stranglehold on the awards, not to dominate them in turn.

Making SF awards great again

Lela Buis comments on the new Dragon Awards:

I see today that DragonCon has announced they will give out awards in 2016. This is kind of a biggie. DragonCon is a huge convention, with an annual on-site attendance of about 70,000 people. The press release says the awards will be based on nominations and votes from all fans, not just attendees or members, through an open system. They’re apparently going to run this off their Website where voters can register to vote.

Contrast this attendance figure with WorldCon that gives out the Hugo Awards. Wikipedia lists 4,644 attendees and 10,350 who bought memberships to vote the 2015 Hugo Awards, which was a record for numbers. With DragonCon moving into the awards game, I’m thinking the Hugo’s are officially undermined. The Puppy scandal has not only disrupted the voting system, but it seems to have led to an inspection of the Hugo process where works are winnowed through a narrow review and recommendation system and onto the ballot.

While most people aren’t going to swallow the Puppies’ complaints of a vast conspiracy whole, their grievances do seem to have resulted in concerns about the fairness of the process. WorldCon has scrambled to provide additional controls, but it could be that their credibility is already shot.

Yes, indeed, I think the Hugo Awards might have just taken a few hits over the last decade or two. In any event, I’m sure the science fiction fandom community is every bit as delighted about people taking their advice and setting up a new and alternative award as they were about people taking John Scalzi’s advice to nominate and vote for the Hugo Awards.

I am registered to vote in the Dragon Awards and I would encourage you to do so as well. I’ll post my recommendations here the week after the Hugo shortlist is announced, in the event that any of you might happen to be curious about them.

The funniest thing is the way a self-appointed Hugo Defender immediately popped up to white-knight for Worldcon in the comments at Lela’s site. That, more than anything, tells you how fandom actually feels about the new competition.

You wrote: “…it seems to have led to an inspection of the Hugo process where works are winnowed through a narrow review and recommendation system and onto the ballot.”

What does that mean? The Hugo Awards are nominated by the thousands of members of the World Science Fiction Society. How is that a “narrow review and recommendation system?”

Whatever does it mean, Mr. Standlee asks, even as the rules are changed to protect the perceived interests of the Tor Books cabal.

Chaos Horizon predicts Best Novel finalists

I respected the work that Brandon Kempner does at Chaos Horizon even before he went six for six in correctly predicting all the novels nominated for the 2016 Nebula Awards. Sure, the SJWs are getting more than a little predictable, but even so, that was an impressive performance.

He’s onto the 2016 Hugo Awards now, for which the nominations are now closed, and he has attempted to sort out how the three major factions, the Not-Puppies, the Rabid Puppies, and the Sad Puppies, are going to turn out in order to predict the Best Novel shortlist that will be announced on April 26th.

Some of his assumptions, all of which are reasonable, but not necessarily correct, are as follows:

  • Turnout will be higher than normal, but generally in line with past percentages of total eligibility.
  • There is no whisper slate among one or more groups of Puppykickers.
  • The Rabid Puppies are subject to normal group indiscipline.
  • The 2016 Sad Puppy list indicates how 2015 Sad Puppies will vote.

The latter is the most questionable assumption, and is almost certainly incorrect. The others are more reasonable and may well hold. His numbers indicate a maximum turnout of 709 nominations for the top Not-Puppy novel, 440 for all of the Rabid Puppy novels, and 360 for the top Sad Puppy novel. And although there is no formal Not-Puppy list, as noted before, the behavior of the SF-SJWs in fandom is so predictable that he was able to assemble the equivalent of the Not-Puppy slate, which is as follows:

  • Uprooted, Naomi Novik
  • Ancillary Mercy, Ann Leckie
  • The Fifth Season, NK Jemisin 
  • Aurora, Kim Stanley Robinson 
  • Seveneves, Neal Stephenson

Note that I correctly identified three of them back in December. The notable omission is any novel published by Tor Books; if Chaos Horizon is correct, 2016 would mark only the third time since 1997 that Tor Books was not represented on the Best Novel shortlist. (This may explain the Torlings’ determination to push through EPH and guarantee Tor a permanent slot on the shortlist.)

Chaos Horizon presented 27 possible models. I selected max Not-Puppy, max Rabid Puppy, and max-min Sad Puppy to come up with these results, with the first five qualifying for the Best Novel shortlist.

918 Seveneves
853 Uprooted
800 Somewhither
782 The Aeronaut’s Windlass
774 Ancillary Mercy
522 The Fifth Season
522 Aurora
480 Golden Son
440 Agent of the Imperium

This was in line with Chaos Horizon’s own conclusions, which were revealed in the comments of his most recent post:

Jacob:
My prediction of the five nominees: Uprooted, Seveneves, The Aeronaut’s Windlass, Somewither, and Ancillary Mercy

chaoshorizon:
Way to spoil the surprise! But that’s what I think as well.

However, no one should start celebrating or cursing their stars yet. I suspect the Hugos will turn out to be less easily predicted than the Nebulas. First, the Rabid Puppies may outperform. A disciplined Rabid Puppy performance combined with half the Sad Puppies turning Rabid would mean Golden Son (which may be the best SF novel of the entire lot) would get 810 votes, which would allow it to knock Ancillary Mercy off the shortlist. Combine that with a half-hearted Not-Puppy effort, and the much-feared Rabid Puppy sweep becomes theoretically conceivable.

On the other hand, if the Puppykickers show the same ability to march in lockstep on the nominations that they did in voting No Award last year, even Seveneves won’t be nominated. In that case, we’ll probably see Barsk, The Fifth Season, and The Traitor Baru Cormorant in addition to Uprooted and Ancillary Mercy. And then there is always the possibility that one or more authors decline a nomination and render the entire nomination process irrelevant.

NOTA BENE: as Marc DuQuesne points out, the predicted outcome can be accurately characterized as a Puppy sweep, since both Ancillary Mercy and Uprooted appear on the Sad Puppy list. However, since only Uprooted
appears in the Sad Puppy top five, I don’t think that would be a
reasonable characterization of a shortlist containing the Leckie book.

Regardless three of five in Best Novel (four of five if we count SP) would exceed last year’s net Puppy performance, and would be quite satisfying in light of our known numerical disadvantage versus the entirety of SF fandom. It would also suffice to put EPH through, which would be very useful by guaranteeing the Puppies a permanent seat on the Hugo Security Council. And considering that Uprooted is not only a Sad Puppy recommendation but a pretty good fantasy to which I gave serious consideration to putting on the Rabid Puppies list, if Chaos Horizon is right, we would be very pleased should the outcome he anticipates come to pass.

Rabid Puppies 2016: updates and estimates

Chaos Horizon estimates between 20 percent and 80 percent of the Rabid Puppies will show up to nominate:

If the Rabid Puppies had around 550 votes in 2015, how many will they bring to 2016? Since all those who voted in 2015 can nominate in 2016, I imagine it will be a big number. Even so, I can’t imagine carrying 100% over—the nomination stage is simply less interesting, less publicized, and more difficult to vote in. Let’s imagine three scenarios: an 80% scenario, a 60% scenario, and a 40% scenario. I think 80% is the most likely; this is the group most invested in impacting the Hugos and the most likely to team up again. And since they don’t have to pay an entry fee to participate in the nomination stage . . .

I also think this group will have solid slate discipline, voting the list as Vox Day published it. If you want to factor in some slate decay, I’d do so for lesser known books like Agent of the Imperium.

I, personally, consider this to be an inadvertent affront. I would be surprised if only 80 percent of the Rabid Puppies could be bothered to show up and nominate – and remember, tomorrow is the last day in which you can submit your nominations to MidAmericaCon II. If you haven’t gotten around to it yet, don’t put it off any longer. Do it today.

What Chaos Horizon means by “slate decay” is a simple failure of discipline. Last year, for example, far more Puppies submitted nominations in Best Novel than in other, less important categories or went lone ranger on occasion. And while I can’t see what slate decay could possibly have to do with what is merely a list of recommendations, and by no means a direct order to
anyone, least of all the Rabid Puppies, the Sad Puppies, the Ilk, the
Dread Ilk, the Vile Faceless Minions, or the Evil Legion of Evil, by
their Supreme Dark Lord, I do think one would be remiss were one to fail to fill out the entire nominating ballot.

Speaking of which, I have updated the Rabid Puppies 2016 list with some of the additional information requested by the ballot form, such as the writers, directors, and editors in the Dramatic Presentation and Semiprozine categories. Be sure to check out your ballot before the end of day tomorrow to ensure that your voice is heard properly at the 2016 Hugo Awards. UPDATE: Note that as I have been unable to ascertain Rowena’s eligibility for Best Professional Artist, I am replacing her with LARRY ROSTANT who does some excellent blended work.

There are two big questions that will dictate how the 2016 shortlist turns out. The first is whether the Tor cabal has enacted a whisper slate or not, although the one-year recusal of John Scalzi and others tends to indicate that the Torlings have elected to sit back and anticipate that events will provide the necessary support required to ratify EPH this year. Given the way EPH will ensure them at least one permanent nomination in every category, that would be a reasonable, if surprisingly strategic, approach. The second big question is how many Sad Puppies were converted to Rabid Puppies by the various antics of the Puppykickers; if this has actually happened, the RP turnout could potentially exceed 750.

But that, my dear canines, dolorous and corybantic, is entirely up to you. By the way, be sure to save the copy of your ballot that MidAmericaCon sends you after you enter your nominations. We will need them in order to verify the announced results.

UPDATE: MidAmeriCon II ‏has announced that the shortlist ballot will be announced on 26th April. Voting will open 15th May and close July 31st. Hugo/No Awards ceremony 20th August.