500 more votes

MidAmericaCon II reports more than 4,000 nominating votes for the 2016 Hugo Awards:

Over 4,000 nominating ballots were received for the 2016 Hugo Awards, nearly doubling the previous record of 2,122 ballots set last year by Sasquan, the 73rd Worldcon held in Spokane, WA.

I would assume that this bodes poorly for the Rabid Puppies, as it tends to indicate a stronger turnout by the No Awards than predicted by Chaos Horizon. His prediction assumed 3,620 nominating votes, about 500 short of what we will assume was 4,100 votes.

So, I have to conclude that expectations of a second-straight Puppy sweep are highly unlikely, although we will likely get a few nominations where there is an amount of crossover appeal. If the vote had come in around 3,000, I would have felt reasonably confident. Over 4,000 and I tend to doubt the 500-strong Rabid Puppy vote can compete effectively with what has become an increasingly uniform SF-SJW vote until EPH passes.

However, this still indicates a high probability of an entirely satisfactory result, as our primary goal was to break the Tor cabal’s stranglehold on the awards, not to dominate them in turn.