Tag: economics

BNP Paribas Problems

  • As of 11:00 AM EDT on Monday, 20 October 2025, stock market trading in BNP Paribas has been HALTED after the bank stock plunged ten percent in today’s trading. BNP Paribas is the second largest Bank in all Europe. Trouble signs with the bank stock hit early in trading over in Europe, with the bank stock dropping about 5% at open, which fell further to 8.67% around 10:00 AM EDT, which has now lead to a ten percent drop triggering a “Circuit Breaker” halt in the Bank’s stock trading.

However, it appears unlikely this is a trigger event similar to the collapse of Bear Stearns in 2008, in that there is a concrete reason for institutions dumping their shares that is not related to the potential insolvency of Europe’s second-largest bank.

  • BNP Paribas shares tumbled as much as 10% on Monday, after a U.S. jury found the French bank helped Sudan’s government commit genocide by providing banking services that violated American sanctions, raising questions about whether the lender will be exposed to further legal claims. The federal jury in Manhattan on Friday ordered the French bank to pay a combined $20.5 million to three Sudanese plaintiffs who testified about human rights abuses perpetrated under former President Omar al-Bashir’s rule.

Losing an expensive lawsuit isn’t good, of course, but the need to pay out a few tens of millions is unlikely to serve as an initial domino.

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Immigration is Importing Poverty

The big lie about immigration is that it is “good for the economy” and “necessary to maintain the social security structure”. Because in any advanced economy, immigrants reduce the productivity of labor and impose a tremendous financial burden on the economy that significantly outweigh any benefits they could ever collectively provide.

New data shows that foreigners account for a substantial share of people living in absolute poverty in Italy, even as the poverty rates of families with two Italian parents drops. One director of La Verita newspaper, Maurizio Belpietro, has run an opinion piece in his newspaper lamenting that Italy is “importing poverty.”

“We are importing poor people. Of the total immigrant population, 35.6 percent live in absolute poverty. This rate is five times higher than that of Italians,” writes Belpietro, who is an influential voice in Italian politics with 360,000 followers on X.

He further notes that although foreigners make up a small percentage of the population, they represent a huge share of the number of people living in poverty.

“Of the 2.2 million households living in poverty, i.e., do not have enough income to support a minimum standard of living, 1.5 million are Italian and 733,000 are foreigners. This means that, despite being less than a tenth of the population, poor non-EU citizens are one third of the total,” he wrote. The data, from the Italian government’s Istat, shows that for those families with one Italian and one foreign parent, the absolute poverty rate is only slightly lower, at 30.4 percent.

Claims that mass immigration would “save” European pension systems are increasingly running into reality.

Citing the article, Italian commentator Francesca Totolo wrote on X: “No, immigrants do not pay pensions to Italians. The absolute poverty rate among families of only foreigners is 35.2%, while among families of only Italians it is 6.2%. This means that it is and will be Italians who have to pay for assistance, subsidies, housing, and pensions to foreigners without resources.”

This finding has been replicated in many other countries, which shows that the left’s promise that foreigners would feed into the pension system falters when confronted with the data. Notably, there are substantial differences between EU and non-EU foreigners, with EU foreigners often boosting GDP and contributing to the tax base, in particular those from certain EU countries.

According to a landmark study from the Netherlands, the report found that migrants had cost the state €400 billion between 1995 and 2019. In Germany, the estimated cost of migrants is currently at €50 billion a year, including social benefits, housing, integration, education, and child allowances.

In 2021, French author and academic Jean-Paul Gourévitch said in an interview with Radio Sud that employment data show that it is a myth that immigration to France has economic benefits.

“I have studied this topic extensively and today everyone in France, from the left to the right agrees that immigration costs more than it brings in,” Gourévitch said. “There is a major difference between left and right (oriented) economists regarding the costs: the leftist economists say the deficit is six to ten billion [euros per year], while those on the right say it is 40 to 44 billion. My own scientific research shows that the deficit is 20 to 25 billion [euros],” he said.

There is absolutely no positive economic argument for permitting mass immigration except for the appeal to debt-funded GDP growth that could be much less expensively provided by simply having the government distribute more spending money directly to the native population to boost consumer spending.

Mass immigration is an economic disaster as well as a societal disaster. There are only three solutions: mass repatriations, mass violence and ethnic cleansings, and total societal collapse. And no amount of magic-wording, word-spelling, and name-calling is going to create a viable fourth option.

The mass importation of foreigners is almost unprecedented in history. And extreme policies such as we have suffered will inevitably result in extreme consequences.

Consider that Great Britain has been invaded by 10x more foreigners than have invaded Ukraine. How can anyone expect the consequences for Great Britain to be less significant over time than the consequences of defeat for Ukraine? A military invasion is often less significant over time, because in the case of a military invasion, most of the foreigners eventually return home.

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Asymmetric Economic Warfare

Despite being more vulnerable to trade war pain due to its export surplus, China has adroitly managed to gain the upper hand in the economic conflict by taking advantage of the fact that semiconductors require input factors that are almost entirely under Chinese control.

Despite the show of progress and professed optimism for a potential de-escalation in the Madrid trade talks, the US wasted no time to launch a series of trade and tech sanctions against China immediately afterwards, just like it launched the sneak attack on Iran shortly after its 5th round nuclear talks with Tehran.

  • The US Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) tightened its chip ban on China, expanding the embargo to cover all semiconductor related software and equipment sales to China, in an effort to completely choke off China’s ability for chip production
  • Washington expanded its entity list (i.e. black list) to deny high end sales to businesses outside of China that have 50% or more Chinese ownership
  • It announced a plan to charge million-dollar port fees for any Chinese-operated shipping companies, Chinese-made ships, or non-Chinese shippers with Chinese-made ships in their fleet or on their order books, in an effort to undermine China’s shipping building industry
  • Washington also put a 721% tariff on Chinese clean energy products such as solar panels
  • It imposed 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive goods (e.g., wiring, batteries) under Section 232, targeting China’s dominance in EV/tech supply chains
  • It ended de minimis exemption for low-value packages, hitting e-commerce from Chinese platforms such as Temu and Shein

Faced with the bad faith from the Trump regime, China retaliated swiftly with a suite of counter actions:

  • Beijing published its latest restrictions on rare earth products to deny any sales of China-sourced rare earth magnets, processing technology, and equipment to foreign military and semi-conductor industry
  • It revoked import license for US lumber and soybeans. China was the biggest buyer of US soybeans in the past and accounted for over 50% its export. But it has ordered no purchase in 2025
  • Beijing announced it would charge reciprocal port fees for any US-operated or US-owned shipping companies. China runs 7 out of the world’s top ten container ports and has by far the highest port calls. Though the US builds few ships and few large shipping companies are US operated, US pension funds and asset managers own large shares in some of the world’s top shipping companies like Maersk which are now subject to the port fees. This move directly targets US financial interests
  • China also tightened up export of lithium ion and graphite anode, critical for green transformation
  • It expanded the unreliable list (China’s answer to the entity list) to cover more US defense contractors, tech firms, and critical mineral companies. It also launched anti-trust investigation against Qualcomm, a large US chip manufacturer

The latest tit for tats strongly indicates China is ready to move up the escalation ladder in its confrontation with the US on trade and technology issues.

In particular, Beijing’s enhanced rare earth restrictions are expected to deal a massive blow to high tech and military production in the US and its vassals.

In its embargo of chip technology against China, the US utilized the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR) to block chip export to China if non-US made chips use any American technology, software, or equipment somewhere along the supply chain.

In essence, the FDPR allows US to claim jurisdiction to any products US technology touches even if it is made overseas such as the case with TSMC and ASML. The rule gives the US extraterritorial reach.

With the new rare earth restrictions, China flips the logic back to the US. Beijing has announced any non-Chinese companies operating anywhere must obtain Beijing’s approval to export rare earth magnets or semiconductors if those products contain Chinese original rare earth, or if they are produced using Chinese rare earth technology, process or equipment.

Beijing is denying all rare earth products, technology, equipment, and technical support to foreign end users it doesn’t approve.

The Chinese economic strategists understand that in an economic war, pain flows downstream. The US thought it was in the driver’s seat – and indeed, I assumed much the same due to the fact that the US economy would benefit greatly from refraining from importing goods from China and onshoring its now-absent industrial manufacturing capabilities.

But the stranglehold China has upon the materials required for modern warmaking materials, particularly drones and semiconductors, means that the USA will have to choose between its ability to make war and its ability to maintain the global Clown World economy. And for the first time, it is not possible for Uncle Sam to choose guns and butter.

DISCUSS ON SG

China Warns the USA

China is no longer content to permit the USA to throw its economic weight around without consequences.

Beijing has made it clear that it won’t yield to Washington’s latest tariff threats, urging the United States to seek a negotiated settlement instead of escalating tensions.

The warning came as part of an official statement released by China’s Ministry of Commerce on Sunday. The response followed US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, citing Beijing’s new restrictions on rare earth exports – vital materials used in products from smartphones to fighter jets.

“China’s position on the trade war is consistent: we do not want it, but we are not afraid of it,” the ministry stated.

The Chinese people are even less inclined to submit to US posturing on trade and interference with Chinese affairs.

We are simply sick and tired of the nonstop demonization of anything related to China by the US. This export ban of rare earth minerals is just the start. If the US does not correct its course, and stop interfering our legitimate rights for development, then we will engineer global economic collapse. Do you really think you can take China down, without us taking you down too? After that, we will let our weapons do the talking.

I was on Chinese state television during President Trump’s first term. Back then, neither the economists nor the journalist believed that Trump would start a trade war with China, which I suspect is why the initial Chinese response to all of the US provocations were so mild and passive. But now, with the panoply of sanctions, direct and indirect, that are being imposed upon China, such as the attempt to ban flights over Russian territory from landing in the USA because it provides Chinese airlines with an advantage of European and US airlines that can’t fly over Russian territory, the Chinese have decided to start playing hardball.

And Larry Johnson explains why China is, contra the expectations of economists like me who were primarily looking at the overall trade picture, actually in a very strong position vis-a-vis the USA in a trade war.

Drones
China dominates the US commercial drone market, with Chinese firms supplying the vast majority of units.

  • Import Share: Approximately 80-90% of US commercial drones are Chinese-made, led by DJI (50-70% market share) and Autel Robotics (15%). US imports of Chinese unmanned aircraft dropped 58.9% from Jan-Nov 2023 to Jan-Nov 2024 due to tariffs and restrictions, but China still holds over 70% of the residual market.
  • Broader Reliance: In 2025, US tariffs reached 170%, tripling prices and slashing imports by up to 75%, yet no viable domestic alternatives have scaled to replace this volume. Military and consumer sectors remain vulnerable, with ongoing Section 232 investigations into national security risks.
  • Implications: Disruptions could halt 80%+ of commercial operations (e.g., agriculture, surveying), per CSIS analysis.

Drone Components
US drone manufacturing heavily relies on Chinese-sourced parts, complicating diversification efforts.

  • Supply Chain Dependence: China provides 70-90% of key components like motors, flight controllers, imaging equipment, and batteries. In 2024, China restricted exports of these to the US, causing price surges of 200-300% and supply shortages.
  • Recent Trends: By April 2025, combined US tariffs hit 170% on components, disrupting global chains; 15 Chinese firms were added to the US Entity List in October 2025 for supplying parts used in conflicts. Indirect reliance persists via third countries (e.g., Vietnam assembly).
  • Implications: The US military drone supply chain is “deeply dependent” on Chinese inputs, per Forbes, with domestic production lagging; restrictions weakened Ukraine’s drone capabilities as a proxy example.

Processed Rare Earth Minerals
Processed rare earths (e.g., oxides, compounds) are essential for electronics, EVs, and defense; China controls ~90% of global processing.

  • Import Share: China supplied 70% of US rare earth compounds and metals imports from 2020-2023, with 2024 estimates holding at ~70-77% (10.4 million kg total imports). Net import reliance dropped to 80% in 2024 from >95% prior years, thanks to minor diversification (e.g., Malaysia 13%).
  • Value and Volume: 2024 imports valued at $170 million (down 11% from 2023); apparent consumption ~6,600 tons.
  • Recent Trends: In 2025, China tightened export controls on seven elements, impacting US defense; US mined 45 kilotons but exports 95% for Asian processing.
  • Implications: 70-80% exposure leaves sectors like renewables and missiles vulnerable; USGS warns of supply risks.

So while the USA is in a stronger overall position and will benefit greatly from onshoring manufacturing and industrial capacity during a trade war, China is in a much stronger military position if the trade war becomes an actual war, either direct or by proxy.

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Immigration is a Luxury

Eva is correct. Immigration is neither necessary nor is it “good for the economy”:

Every non-Western immigrant that enters The Netherlands puts an average strain of €600.000 on the Dutch national treasury. Yet many people still believe the diabolical lie that immigration is necessary to solve the aging population issue. The opposite is true.

Immigration cannot solve the birth rate problem because the loss of a net-productive native cannot be replaced by one, two, or ten net-negative immigrant. In fact, the more immigrants, the worse the problem will inevitably be.

Karl Denninger calculates that less than 15 percent of all US immigrants contribute anything at all. The percentage that are net-positive could be under five percent, which obviously cannot even begin to compensate for the negative effects of their fellow immigrants, let alone the native shortfall.

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Recalculate

Karl Denninger works out that at most 14.5 percent of illegal immigrants “work and pay taxes”.

Ok, 2 million people have been removed.

These are all (or mostly; nothing is ever “all”) productive working people just trying to make an honest living, right? That’s the line run by people who are against deporting those here illegally.

Really? Is that true?

Let’s ignore January because Trump didn’t take office until the 20th, and nothing really happened until February.

February 2025, Employed: 162.544 million
August 2025, Employed: 163.288 million

Hmmm…. 744,000 more people working in August of this year than in February.

Now let’s look at 2024, when Biden was in office and before this operation began, same months.

February 2024, Employed: 160.315 million
August 2024, Employed: 161.348 million

Hmmm…. 1,033,000 more people working in August than in February in…. 2024.

So….. 289,000 more people went to work from February to August of 2024 when illegal aliens were flooding the country than in the last seven months.

In other words of the 2 million illegal immigrants that have been expelled by one means or another it is a reasonable argument that a mere 14.5% of them, or about one in seven, were working in a form and fashion that was recorded in the household survey, which is a clean survey of people, not of employers who are paying everyone above the table on W2s. I’ve been following said survey since the 1990s privately and reporting on it monthly since 2007.

The rest of those who have been removed or self-deported were being showered with the proceeds of armed robbery committed by local, state and federal governments against everyone else here in the United States, including you and I, or they were living on outright criminal activity that is not counted as employment at all.

Oh, and beyond that 14.5% they were not paying any employment or income taxes either so spare me that tripe as well.

All of the economics-based pro-immigration arguments assume a much, much higher percentage of working and tax-paying immigrants than is actually the case, which, of course, is why the net drain on total economic resources is inevitably much higher than the pro-immigration “it’s good for the economy” idiots anticipate.

Even without the relevant statistics, it’s very, very easy to observer how deleterious mass immigration, legal or illegal, is for an economy, as all one has to do is look at the economic history of the USA post-1965, and the economic history of the UK and the European countries post-2010, to see how opening the borders to less-intelligent, less-productive peoples lowers the wage rate, reduces overall societal wealth, increases state spending, enlarges state debt, and shrinks the economy in real per-capita/debt terms.

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Collapse by 2050

A leaked Chinese geopolitical strategy document reveals China’s self-confidence. The document predicts, “The US and Western Europe will collapse due to cultural and demographic conflict by 2050.” China’s leaders increasingly see multiculturalism as “cultural suicide” and believe the west is dying because of it.

—CNN

The Chinese aren’t wrong, although my 2004 estimate for the initial breakup of the USA as a unitary political entity is 2033. The EU has already begun to break apart and the centrifugal forces will continue to grow stronger with the failure of its economic war against Russia. The USA, the UK, and every Western European country are either going to collapse into a violent partition like India circa 1947 or embark upon ethnic cleansing on a larger scale than the Israelis are currently applying to Gaza.

Multiculturalism isn’t just cultural suicide, it is societal suicide, which is arguably worse. The Chinese know this; Xi is not only smart, and not only has the benefit of being advised by Wang Hunin and other brilliant historical philosophers, but is also a student of the greatest political mind of the 20th Century, Lee Kwan Yew. So he knows what we all know, and what Clown World refuses to accept, about multiculturalism.

That’s why Russia is now selling 106 billion cubit tons of natural gas to China every year in lieue of the 160 billion cubic tons it used to sell annually to Western Europe. The Russians, too, know who is going to win in the long run.

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The Dragon and the Elephant

In its futile attempts to keep control of the West, Clown World has completely botched the two primary geostrategic priorities of the imperial USA.

  • Prevent an effective alliance between Russia and China
  • Keep India on the team

Clown World is clearly cooked at this point, even if it somehow manages to fix its growing number of self-inflicted problems in the USA, the UK, and the EU, which it won’t, because it can’t.

I also note the obvious falsehood of all the clowns shilling the idea that Xi has lost power. That clearly is not the case, as evidenced by the starring role he is playing at what appears to be the most significant global meeting since the Potsdam Conference, the current Tianjin Summit that is the 25th meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that ends today in China.

The day of the Zombie Lion and the Exhausted Eagle is done.

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Credit Card Outage in France

And so it begins… Be sure to keep some cash handy at all times.

  • France may be heading for an IMF bailout, warns French Finance Minister
  • Predictions that the minority government will fall next week have spooked the markets, adding to the problems of a massive national debt.
  • France risks seeking a bailout from the International Monetary Fund as its government teeters on the brink of collapse, its finance minister has warned.
  • Crédit Mutuel, and CIC, are the major named banks in a nationwide payment outage starting this afternoon around 5:30 PM CEST. There has been no comment from the banks, and no info has been placed on their websites. People all over France are now unable to pay for groceries, unable to withdraw cash, some are stuck at highway tolls and railway stations on a Saturday afternoon. Many French are doing back-to-school shopping as the school year starts Monday, but they can’t pay for what they need to buy. No word on what caused the outage or when it will be resolved.
  • A massive outage is hitting several French banks, including Crédit Mutuel, CIC, Crédit Agricole, and Société Générale: card payments and withdrawals are IMPOSSIBLE. Toll booths are JAMMED with holiday traffic, and card terminals are showing declined payments.

I assume Clown World will manage to muddle through this initial bank crisis one way or another. But it’s not going to be the last one, as the combination of refusing to buy Russian gas and massive spending on Ukraine and unproductive migrants has destroyed the French, German, and UK economies.

It’s likely to be a interesting autumn. It should be a good time to stay in, read some good books, and generally keep things conservative.

UPDATE: all the cash machines were offline in my part of Scotland yesterday.

Shades of October 2008, but this time it will almost certainly be on a larger scale.

UPDATE: Not to worry, it’s just the IT department enhancing the French user experience. Or so we’re informed.

According to a spokesperson for Crédit Mutuel, the issue stemmed from an internal bug affecting payment acceptance for cardholders of the three banks. Reports suggest the problem arose following a routine computer update, preventing the system from verifying account balances during transactions, leading to widespread payment refusals. Crucially, other banking services, such as bank transfers, remained operational, indicating the issue was isolated to card payment processing.

Yet another justification for UATV’s move away from credit cards.

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Trump’s Tariffs Overturned

I very much doubt the recent federal appeals court ruling striking down President Trump’s emergency tariffs is going to survive Supreme Court review:

A federal appeals court on Friday struck down President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers granted by Congress to impose tariffs, opening the door for the administration to potentially have to repay billions worth of duties.

The 7-4 ruling raises doubt about deals Trump has struck with the European Union, Japan, South Korea and other major trading partners to reduce the “reciprocal” tariff rates on their imports, from the levels the administration originally set in April.

“We conclude Congress … did not give the president wide-ranging authority to impose tariffs” of the kind Trump imposed in his sweeping executive orders, the majority wrote.

The ruling also invalidates the tariffs that Trump has imposed on China, Canada and Mexico to pressure those countries to do more to stop shipments of fentanyl and precursor chemicals from entering the United States.

The decision, however, will not take effect until Oct. 14, giving the Trump administration time to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court.

The fact is that Congress already delegated the necessary power to the Executive Branch more than 50 years ago. This is why President Trump declared his tariffs to be necessary due to national security concerns, which are considerably more valid than the average “national security concern” that is utilized to justify so many federal government actions.

Historically, Congress set tariffs and maintained tight control over this power. However, over time, particularly after the Great Depression, there was a shift towards delegating some authority to the executive branch. This began with the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934, allowing the President to negotiate trade agreements without separate congressional approval each time. Later acts, such as the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and the Trade Act of 1974, further evolved this delegated authority. These allowed the President to act on national security concerns through tariffs or respond to unfair foreign trade practices.

And anyhow, all President Trump has to do is declare an “emanation” or a “penumbra” and he’ll be good to go. September promises to be an interesting month in more ways than one.

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