Tag: China

The US Can’t Win a War with China

But it can certainly win a trade war. It appears the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s spokeswoman hasn’t done the relevant math.

AFP: US President Donald Trump in an interview with Fox News said he would prefer not to have to impose tariffs on China, but that tariffs were a tremendous power over China. Does the Foreign Ministry have a comment on this?

Mao Ning: We made clear our position on this issue more than once. Trade and economic cooperation between China and the US is mutually beneficial. Differences and frictions need to be handled through dialogue and consultation. Trade and tariff wars have no winners and are in the interest of no one, still less the world.

The annual US trade deficit with China for 2024 was $270.4 billion. US GDP for 2023 was $27.7 trillion. An end to all trade with China would cause the US economy to grow at least 1 percent, to $28 trillion. When the (X-M) component of GDP is negative, the more obstacles to trade, the more the economy grows.

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The Decisive Front of WWIII

Nick Giambruno explains why he believes neither Ukraine nor Taiwan, but Iran, will be the decisive front in the world war that began in 2022.

I believe proxy warfare will likely determine who wins World War 3 and gets to shape the new world order. Proxy wars are a method by which major powers fight their battles indirectly, using smaller nations or groups as stand-ins rather than confronting each other directly. Major powers support, equip, and finance smaller groups or nations in a proxy war to fight against a common adversary. This support can include military training, weapons, funding, and other resources. The critical point is that the major powers do not engage directly in combat.

There are numerous ongoing proxy wars in World War 3.

However, the ones I believe will prove decisive will be in Taiwan, Ukraine, and the Middle East. The other proxy wars are peripheral in comparison. Unlike in Europe (Russia) or East Asia (China), there is no sophisticated nuclear power to deter NATO & Friends from more aggressive military action in the Middle East. Iran is, therefore, the weak link in the BRICS+ alliance to push for a multipolar world order. That’s why I expect NATO & Friends will make their last stand to scuttle the emergence of a multipolar world order and preserve the US-led world order in the Middle East…

Turkey and, by extension, NATO & Friends were popping champagne over Assad’s ouster. But the celebration may end soon as they realize they have bit off more than they can chew.

Turkey, the US, and Israel will be responsible for the chaos that comes out of Syria, which is likely to balkanize with unpredictable results.

In any case, I have little doubt that NATO & Friends will try to use growing Turkish influence as a way to reshape the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East in their favor as the arbitrary lines (imposed by the Sykes-Picot Agreement of a century ago) that define most modern Middle East nation states collapse.

In other words, NATO & Friends want an incipient Neo-Ottoman Empire to be the dominant power in the Middle East. BRICS+ wants Iran to be the dominant regional power. Nobody knows who will prevail in the Middle East and, by extension, WW3. The situation is fluid, volatile, and uncertain.

There is an excellent chance that NATO & Friends will lose in Ukraine and Taiwan. I think that means they will not be able to stop the emergence of a multipolar world order unless they subdue the Middle East. And they can’t do that unless they overthrow the government in Iran.

The fall of Assad is indeed a setback for BRICS+, but not a decisive defeat. If NATO & Friends want a decisive victory in the Middle East, they will need to take out the government in Iran. That’s why I think Iran will be the decisive battlefield of WW3.

It’s not an unreasonable analysis, but I’m not as confident that the Turks, with their desire for a neo-Ottoman empire, as as firmly allied with NATO & Friends as the anti-Syrian alliance made it appear. Turkey has, after all, applied to join BRICS+ and not necessarily as a trojan horse. I suspect that they will align with whichever side appears to be winning, and if both Ukraine and Taiwan are resolved before the Middle East – which one would assume will be the case – then there is a very good chance that Erdogan, or his successor, will take the opportunity to join the winning side and help put the final nail in the rules-based neoliberal world order.

I also think Japan and Korea will prove to be significant players, as I expect the Japanese to ultimately side with the Chinese in an attempt to escape their ongoing occupation by the US military. But the truth is that no one knows, no matter how persuasively they support their predictions.

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The Dragon Stirs

If the events in the Middle East cause China to begin intervening with its military on behalf of its friends and allies, that is seriously going to alter the geopolitical math in that region.

China is “deeply concerned” about developments in Syria, where jihadist militants launched a surprise offensive last week, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Monday. As Damascus’ “friend,” Beijing is prepared to take steps to prevent a further deterioration of the situation, he said.  

The Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS) terrorist group, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, and allied militias launched a large-scale attack on government-controlled territory in northern Syria last Wednesday. The militants took over a number of towns and villages in the Aleppo, Idlib and Hama provinces.   

Syrian government forces, backed by Russian fighter jets, launched a counteroffensive on Thursday and successfully liberated several settlements over the weekend, reportedly eliminating hundreds of militants and thwarting their advance into central Syria. However, dozens of Syrian army service members were lost amid the heavy fighting, the Syrian General Command said in an earlier statement.  

“China is deeply concerned over the situation in northwestern Syria, and supports its effort to uphold national security and stability,” Lin told a press briefing on Monday. “As Syria’s friend, China is willing to make an active effort to avoid further deterioration of the situation in Syria,” the official said.   

China has the manpower to swamp every other military; the Red Army is an order of magnitude larger than anything currently in seen in the Ukrainian front, which is itself two orders of magnitude larger than the conflict in the Middle East.

We appear to be rapidly approaching hitherto-unimaginable levels of Fuck Around and Find Out.

UPDATE: Speaking of FAFO, China is also ready for the trade war too.

China announced Tuesday it is banning exports to the United States of gallium, germanium, antimony and other key high-tech materials with potential military applications, as a general principle, lashing back at U.S. limits on semiconductor-related exports… China is the biggest global source of gallium and germanium, which are produced in small amounts but are needed to make computer chips for mobile phones, cars and other products, as well as solar panels and military technology.

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Alan Greenspan on Trial

There are two reasons China’s global primacy is inevitable. First, China remains China, not a subverted, invaded, demoralized shell of a nation. Second, the government refuses to let the financial sector run amok and pillage the rest of its economy:

The former head of a top Chinese bank has received a suspended death sentence for corruption, Xinhua News Agency reported on Tuesday. The verdict comes as part of a widespread anti-corruption crackdown by the authorities in Beijing.

Liu Liange, was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve for accepting bribes worth an equivalent of nearly $17 million and illegally issuing loans, according to Xinhua. Liu served as chairman of the Bank of China for four years until his resignation in March 2023, several weeks before the authorities revealed that he was facing corruption charges. He was arrested in October of last year. According to Tuesday’s ruling, all of Liu’s personal property will be confiscated, and all his illegal gains must be recovered and turned over to the state treasury.

The two-year reprieve, awarded because the accused had cooperated with authorities and shown remorse, means that the sentence will only be carried out if Liu commits further crimes during the period, Reuters has reported. If reprieved, the 63-year-old will serve a life sentence.

Liu is the latest high-profile figure to be sentenced to death as part of widespread anti-corruption efforts ordered by President Xi Jinping targeting the country’s $60 trillion financial sector. Former deputy central bank governor Fan Yifei was sentenced to death for bribery in October, also with a two-year reprieve. In May, Bai Tianhui, a former executive at one of the country’s largest state-controlled asset management firms, was sentenced to death for accepting bribes worth nearly $152 million.

Can you imagine comparable anti-corruption efforts being carried out in the USA? This is the equivalent of Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke being arrested and sentenced to death. But the problem in the USA is so out of hand that it would probably be far more efficient to ask the Russians to drop a few Oreshnik’s on Wall Street.

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Asking For Trouble

The US military is deploying missile bases in Japan and the Philippines in support of an anticipated war with China over Taiwan:

The U.S. military will set up temporary bases along Japan’s southwestern Nansei island chain and the Philippines to deploy missile units in the event of a Taiwan contingency, sources familiar with Japan-U.S. relations said Sunday.

The deployment of the missile units will be incorporated in the first joint operation plan for the United States and Japan to cope with a contingency involving Taiwan and China, which regards the self-ruled island as its own, to be formulated in December.

The U.S. Marine Littoral Regiment, which possesses a multiple-launch High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, will be deployed along the island chain stretching from the Japanese prefectures of Kagoshima and Okinawa toward Taiwan, according to the sources.

From an early stage, when a Taiwan contingency becomes highly imminent, temporary bases will be set up on inhabited islands of the island chain, based on U.S. military guidelines for dispatching Marines in small formations to several locations.

The Japan Self-Defense Forces is expected to mainly engage in logistical support for the marine unit, including supplying fuel and ammunition.

Apparently bravado and bluff is the order of the day. They’re not limiting their imperial overstretch to Europe.

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No Rematch, Please

After seeing its aircraft carrier driven from the Red Sea from Yemen’s land-based missiles, it appears the US Navy has no taste for a rematch any time soon:

Houthi rebels are brandishing increasingly sophisticated weapons, including missiles that “can do things that are just amazing,” the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer said at an Axios event.

The big picture: The militant group has for a year used drones and missiles to strangle waters off Yemen, disrupting international shipping.

Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Bill LaPlante on Wednesday said the Houthis “are getting scary.” “I’m an engineer and a physicist, and I’ve been around missiles my whole career,” he said at the Future of Defense summit in Washington, DC. “What I’ve seen of what the Houthis have done in the last six months is something that — I’m just shocked.”

State of play: The group’s forces menace almost every ship passing by — civilian or military — and have even sent some to the seafloor.

Translation: there will be no naval war over Taiwan. If you have to be concerned about Yemeni land-to-sea capabilities, you’re not ready to fight off the coast of China. We’re effectively back in the days of the Age of Sail, when shore batteries trumped battleships.

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The Expansion of BRICS

BRICS will be growing significantly next month.

The next wave of BRICS expansion will be announced at the group’s annual summit in the Russian city of Kazan in October, Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov has claimed. Speaking on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, Ryzhenkov predicted that BRICS could add at least ten new members, while expressing optimism that his own country’s application for membership will be approved.

“The first wave of enlargement, as we all expect – those who have submitted such applications – will take place at the Kazan summit,” Ryzhenkov told RIA Novosti. Russia is “formulating the list of these countries that will be in the first wave of enlargement,” he added.

As the current holder of the BRICS chairmanship, Russia will host the group’s annual summit in Kazan from October 22 to 24. Earlier this month, Belarusian First Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Lukashevich said his country is in the first pool of BRICS candidates, along with Algeria, Bangladesh, Bahrain, Bolivia, Venezuela, Vietnam, Cuba, Honduras, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Morocco, Nigeria, Palestine, Senegal, and Thailand.

Several other countries, including Türkiye, Zimbabwe, and Burkina Faso, have also shared their intent to join. Founded in 2006 by Russia, China, India, and Brazil, the organization accepted South Africa as a member in 2011. Earlier this year, it expanded to welcome four new member states – Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE. So far, at least 34 countries have expressed interest in joining, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at a senior BRICS meeting earlier in September.

The three most significant countries in that first set are Vietnam, Indonesia, and Nigeria. Clown World has been working hard to try to separate Vietnam from China, and “the Prussians of Asia”, as Lee Kwan Yew described them, are historically the most aggressive nation in Asia. Indonesia is the largest Muslim country and is closely tied economically to China, and Nigeria is the most populous and most advanced African state. Between them, just those three countries have 150 million more people than the entire European Union.

The inclusion of Palestine is also significant, as while BRICS is not a military alliance, the economic power it wields is already formidable, and a boycott by BRICS would be potentially be more devastating than the US sanctions regime on Russia have been. The biggest news, of course, would be if Türkiye is allowed to jump the queue, especially if it exits NATO in the process.

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I May Have Been Wrong

About a month ago, in the leadup to the LDP leadership contest, I theorized that if Shigeru Ishida was chosen, it might signify Japan beginning to move away from Clown World.

There are some hints that Japan may be starting to break with Clown World. If Shigeru Ishida succeeds Fumio Kishida as Prime Minister, it would possibly signal a shift toward China.

And while Ishida did manage to win the party leadership, his call for an Asian equivalent of NATO would appear to suggest that he’s not any better than the obvious Clown Worlders. Of course, we must keep in mind that the Japanese often keep their thoughts to themselves, and that an Asian NATO including China would be a very different creature than an alliance formed to oppose it.

In brief comments made to lawmakers before the run-off, Ishiba called for a fairer and kinder Japan and tears welled in his eyes after the final results were read out.

“I will do my utmost to believe in the people, to speak the truth with courage and sincerity, and to make this country a safe and secure place where everyone can live with a smile on their face once again,” he said in a short speech.

Ishiba’s campaign focused heavily on security issues, and he has indicated he will push for more oversight over the United States’s use of its bases in Japan.

“He is seen as a defence expert. He has proposed the establishment of an Asian-style NATO. And he is likely to continue with a more assertive Japan on the international stage,” said Al Jazeera’s McBride.

Following the result, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Beijing wants to improve ties with Japan, because “the long-term, sound and steady development of China-Japan relations serves the fundamental interests of the two peoples.”

Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said, “It’s the only appropriate choice.”

China certainly doesn’t appear to object to Ishida. So this will remain something on which the astute observer should keep an eye.

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So Much for “Self Defense”

The Japanese Self Defense Force sent one of its warships through the Taiwan Strait off the coast of China:

A Japanese warship cruised through the Taiwan Strait for the first time to assert its freedom of navigation, local media said Thursday, just a week after a Chinese aircraft carrier sailed between two Japanese islands near Taiwan. Washington and its allies are increasingly crossing the 180-kilometer Taiwan Strait to reinforce its status as an international waterway, angering Beijing.

The Sazanami destroyer made the passage on Wednesday at the same time as navy vessels from Australia and New Zealand, several Japanese media outlets said. The three nations planned to conduct military drills in the South China Sea, the reports said. There was no immediate confirmation from the defense ministry.

Last week, China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier sailed between two Japanese islands near Taiwan for the first time, accompanied by two destroyers. Tokyo said the ships entered its contiguous zone — an area up to 24 nautical miles from the Japanese coast — and called the incident “totally unacceptable”, while China said it had complied with international law. It followed the first confirmed incursion into Japanese airspace by a Chinese surveillance aircraft in August.

On Thursday, the Yomiuri Shimbun daily cited unnamed government sources as saying Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had instructed the Taiwan Strait journey over concern that doing nothing following China’s intrusion into Japanese territory could encourage Beijing to take more assertive actions.

That’s an aggressive action by a naval warship, not a defensive action. Japan appears to be choosing very poorly, although given that it is now under both military and financial occupation, it may not have much choice in the matter.

My guess is that Clown World is trying to warn China not to make its move on unification when the US-Israeli alliance attacks Lebanon, Syria, and possibly Iran.

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An Interesting Order

The spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry confirms that Chinese citizens have been instructed to leave Israel.

Anadolu Agency: It’s been reported by Israeli media that Chinese Embassy in Israel has asked its citizens to leave the country and return to China in a Sunday night statement. The embassy added that Chinese citizens should not travel to Israel for the time being. What’s the reason for the travel advice and the leave advice?

Lin Jian: We indeed released relevant consular notice. It is our unshirkable duty to protect the safety of overseas Chinese nationals.

The USA, the UK, and numerous European countries are advising their citizens to leave Lebanon, not Israel. Which does tend to raise the question: what does China know that Israel’s allies do not?

One thing that is definitely not a good sign:

Fighter jets of the Israeli Air Force are now landing at a reportedly BRITISH base on the island of Cyprus in the Mediterranean Sea, after bombing attacks upon Lebanon. Hezbollah made clear months ago, that if the Israelis use base(s) on Cyprus, to attack them in Lebanon, that Hezbollah will attack Cyprus with long range missiles.

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