Math is hard, Barbie

Uncephalized demonstrates why it is tremendously foolish to attempt to “correct” one’s intellectual superiors in taking exception to my observation about it being astronomically unlikely that any individual present at one mass shooting in the United States will be present at another one:

I’m responding to Vox’s OP: The odds against one person in a country of 320 million being in the vicinity of two such events are astronomical.

Which is flat-out wrong–unless I am making some boneheaded error, which is always possible, and why I showed my work–and leads me to think Vox didn’t bother doing the math at all before jumping to a conspiracy as his explanation. I may be in error here–I’m sure someone will quickly point it out, if so–but by my math these coincidences are far from astronomically unlikely.

Las Vegas 2017 attendance: 20,000
Gilroy 2019 attendance: 80,000

I don’t know how many attendees were actually physically present at each event at the time of the shootings, but I’ll assume two thirds, so 14,520 and 52,800.

Proportion of US population present at LV shooting: 14,520 / 350,000,000 = .000041 or .0041{02465df28c20f4aad57bcc5b49594f9c07e66389abf8fcd2ca75e40861c18fe4}

Proportion of the population NOT at LV is the inverse or 99.9959{02465df28c20f4aad57bcc5b49594f9c07e66389abf8fcd2ca75e40861c18fe4}

Likelihood of one person being at both events is then: 1 – (.999959^52,800). Which is 88.8{02465df28c20f4aad57bcc5b49594f9c07e66389abf8fcd2ca75e40861c18fe4}. The number of times this apparently happened is 3, so it’s 0.888^3, or 70{02465df28c20f4aad57bcc5b49594f9c07e66389abf8fcd2ca75e40861c18fe4}.

In other words, through purely random chance it is more likely than not that 3 people who were at the LV 2017 shooting would also be present at the Gilroy shooting.

Making similar estimates about the LV-Parkland connection: 39{02465df28c20f4aad57bcc5b49594f9c07e66389abf8fcd2ca75e40861c18fe4} likely assuming an average family size of 4, 3000 attendees of Parkland and we are looking for a direct family member involved in both events.

The Borderline-LV coincidence has the lowest odds as I run the numbers, actually quite low, at 0.046{02465df28c20f4aad57bcc5b49594f9c07e66389abf8fcd2ca75e40861c18fe4} or about 1 chance in 2200, partly because the guy was actually killed, a much lower number than “was also there”.

I don’t know enough about the San Bernardino or Toronto events to start even making assumptions.

In this model the probability of the LV-Gilroy and LV-Parkland coincidences both happening is 0.70*0.39 = 0.27 or 27{02465df28c20f4aad57bcc5b49594f9c07e66389abf8fcd2ca75e40861c18fe4}. Just better than 1 in 4.

The very large numbers present at these festivals make for counterintuitive probabilities. The Borderline connection is the only one that even gives me pause, but even 1 in 2200 is not what I’d call “astronomically low”.

Uncephalized is correct about one thing. I didn’t bother actually doing the math beforehand because I didn’t need to do it. And I didn’t need to do it in order to have a general idea about the size of the probabilities involved because a) I am highly intelligent and b) I have an instinctual grasp of mathematical relationships. I knew the probabilities were astronomical, in much the same way you know a tall man’s height is over six feet without needing to actually measure him. The boneheaded error Uncephalized has made here is that he simply doesn’t know how to calculate the probability of independent events. But it’s really not a difficult concept. For example, if the odds of rolling a six on a six-sided die are 1 in 6, then the odds of rolling two sixes on two different six-sided dice are (1/6) * (1/6) = 1/36.

But before we calculate the probability of these two specific independent events, let’s get the base numbers right. The Gilroy Garlic Festival is a three-day event, so that 80,000 is reduced to 26,667 before being reduced another one-third as per Uncephalized’s assumption to account for the timing of the event. This brings us to an estimated 17,787 people present at the time of the shootings. Note that reducing the estimated 20,000 Las Vegas attendance by the same one-third gives us 13,340, not 14,520.

It’s never a good sign when they can’t even get the simple division right. Now for the relevant probabilities.

  • Gilroy probability: Dividing 17,787 by 350,000,000 results in a probability of 0.00005082, or one in 19,677.
  • Las Vegas probability: Dividing 13,340 by 350,000,000 results in a probability of 0.00003811428, or one in 26,237
  • Gilroy AND Las Vegas probability: Multiplying 0.00005082 by 0.00003811428 results in a probability of 0.0000000019369677096, or one in 516,270,868.

You will observe that 88.8 percent, or 1/1.13, is very, very far away from 1/516,270,868, and 0.0000000019369677096 cubed – to account for all three dual survivors reported – is even further off from 70 percent. As I originally stated, the odds against anyone having been at both events are astronomical, even if we leave out relevant factors such as the fact that 11 percent of all US citizens have never left their birth state throughout the course of their entire lives and that Las Vegas averages 24,381 visitors from California every day.

I suggest that “astronomical” is a perfectly reasonable way to describe a probability of one in 516 million cubed, or if you prefer, one in 137,604,570,000,000,016,192,784,160. I also suggest that you refrain from attempting to correct me if your IQ is sub-Mensa level. And finally, I suggest that it is not “jumping to a conspiracy” to observe obvious and glaring statistical improbabilities.

Owen takes a week off

Courtesy of YouTube. Apparently a Boomer was threatened by criticism of his g-g-generation and complained, leading to a strike and a one-week timeout.

Our team has reviewed your content, and, unfortunately, we think it violates our hate speech policy.

We’ve removed the following content from YouTube:

Video: The Boomer – Owen Benjamin

How dare you, Big Bear? How double-dog dare you? This is the banned video, which you can still watch on Unauthorized. Making fun of Boomers is now officially considered “hate speech” by YouTube.

Called it

Once men who should never have been pastors fall to temptation, they fall hard:

So let’s get this straight. Josh Harris poses with his wife to announce a divorce. Several days later, he announces on Instagram that he has renounced his faith with a “heartfelt” apology to the LGBTQ community. Now, he’s seen marching in a gay pride parade wearing rainbow gear and eating rainbow food. Is there another announcement he will be making soon?

One certainly assumes so.

China fires its biggest gun

Economically speaking, you understand, by lowering the value of the Yuan against the USD:

“The wait is over for those wondering how Beijing would respond to Trump’s recent tariff announcement,” BMO said. “The result: the yuan was allowed to depreciate well beyond 7.0.”

Krueger called China’s retaliation “massive,” adding that “on a scale of 1-10, it’s an 11.” He cited the Chinese government calling on state buyers to halt U.S. agricultural purchases, while there’s “increased anecdotal evidence that the Chinese government is tightening its overview of foreign firms.”

“While there were measures that could have been chosen with larger direct effects on supply chains, the announcements from Beijing represent a direct shot at the White House and seem designed for maximum political impact,” Krueger said. “ We expect a quick (and possibly intemperate) response from the White House, and consequently expect a more rapid escalation of trade tensions.”

This doesn’t matter to the real economy. The US economy will only benefit from a reduction of trade with China. But it does matter quite a bit to the financial economy, hence all of the sturm und drang and falling stock markets.

It’s interesting that they resorted to this so quickly. It appears things are a little shakier over there than everyone except Nate suspected.

Credit where credit is due

Black Science Man actually makes a modicum of sense for a change:

In the past 48hrs, the USA horrifically lost 34 people to mass shootings.

On average, across any 48hrs, we also lose…

500 to Medical Errors
300 to the Flu
250 to Suicide
200 to Car Accidents
40 to Homicide via Handgun

Often our emotions respond more to spectacle than to data.

We’d better hope no one tells Ivanka about these statistics or President Trump will be announcing a VERY GOOD, NO, GREAT proposal to ban doctors, the flu, and automobiles before the end of the week.

What part of “shall not be infringed” is so hard to understand?

Cloudflare cucks again

This is why you shouldn’t have cucked in the first place, Matthew Prince. Once you have demonstrated your willingness to do so, you have not signaled virtue, but weakness, and thereby guaranteed that pressure will be placed on you to do so again, and again, and again:

The mass shootings in El Paso, Texas and Dayton, Ohio are horrific tragedies. In the case of the El Paso shooting, the suspected terrorist gunman appears to have been inspired by the forum website known as 8chan. Based on evidence we’ve seen, it appears that he posted a screed to the site immediately before beginning his terrifying attack on the El Paso Walmart killing 20 people.

Unfortunately, this is not an isolated incident. Nearly the same thing happened on 8chan before the terror attack in Christchurch, New Zealand. The El Paso shooter specifically referenced the Christchurch incident and appears to have been inspired by the largely unmoderated discussions on 8chan which glorified the previous massacre. In a separate tragedy, the suspected killer in the Poway, California synagogue shooting also posted a hate-filled “open letter” on 8chan. 8chan has repeatedly proven itself to be a cesspool of hate.

8chan is among the more than 19 million Internet properties that use Cloudflare’s service. We just sent notice that we are terminating 8chan as a customer effective at midnight tonight Pacific Time. The rationale is simple: they have proven themselves to be lawless and that lawlessness has caused multiple tragic deaths. Even if 8chan may not have violated the letter of the law in refusing to moderate their hate-filled community, they have created an environment that revels in violating its spirit.

This may explain the real purpose behind the shootings: interfering with Q’s communications. But regardless, Cloudflare is about to learn that there is no rest for the weak, as this comment from the Verge posted on Instapundit demonstrates.

excellent. now can Cloudfare remove DDOS protection from the GOP website until the Republicans stop being the party of white supremacist, bigots, xenophobes and racists?

Another atheist shooter

Interesting that the low-status atheist angle doesn’t seem to come up often amidst all the theatrics and diagnostics that have been performed over the years concerning mass shooters. Notice the patch on the right side of the Dayton shooter’s chest.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe that says Against all Gods. The primary pattern to be recognized here is low-status white male atheist. Perhaps they make the best wind-up toys.

A series of highly improbable coincidences

One strong indicator of a Narrative at work is the presence of people connected to similar previous events:

The parents of one of the Stonewall Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, Florida happened to be in El Paso on Saturday.

I said the over/under was three, although I was anticipating a connection to Las Vegas rather than Parkland. But regardless, we’re already at two. Let’s just say this isn’t the first time there has been an “amazing coincidence” of this type.

  • Gilroy Garlic Festival: 3 also survived Las Vegas shooting 2 years ago
  • Telemachus Orfanos, 27, died alongside 11 others when a man opened fire at the Borderline Bar and Grill in Thousand Oaks, north-west of Los Angeles. He escaped death last year when a gunman killed 58 people in Las Vegas.
  • A woman from California who survived the Las Vegas attack had been driving to her job in San Bernardino, California, when the mass shooting at that city’s Inland Regional Center began in December 2015.
  • Parkland survivor’s dad escaped harm in Las Vegas shooting.
  • One of the victims of the 2012 mass shooting in Aurora, Colorado, had been at the site of a mass shooting in Toronto only a month before.

The odds against one person in a country of 320 million being in the vicinity of two such events are astronomical. The odds of this happening at least six times are astronomical squared. What the explanation is, I don’t know, but the probability math indicates extreme skepticism is required.

She’s not wrong

Too many commentators are still caught up in the irrelevant Republican-Democrat shell game:

Tulsi Gabbard is running for president of a country that she believes has wrought horror on the world, and she wants its citizens to remember that. She is from Hawaii, and she spends each morning surfing. But that is not what she talks about in this unlikely campaign. She talks about the horror.

She lists countries: Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Cuba, Vietnam, Iraq. Failure after failure, she says. To drive the point home, she wants to meet on a Sioux tribe reservation in North Dakota, where, she explains, the United States government committed its original atrocity.

“These Indigenous people have been disrespected, mistreated with broken promises and desecrated lands,” Ms. Gabbard says.

Ms. Gabbard, 38, was a soldier in Iraq and currently serves as a major in the Hawaii Army National Guard, which she cites to temper her message: Get out of foreign wars. Leave other countries alone. Not everyone wants democracy.

Her position is hardly new. It’s essentially what George Washington recommended and what Donald Trump promised.

The US government has arguably committed more atrocities and broken more promises and treaties than any other extant government in the world, with the sole exception of Great Britain. That is an easily verifiable fact. The list of Indian treaties alone that it signed, then violated, are in excess of 100. In fact, it’s incredible that any foreign governments even bother to go through the charade anymore.

I’m not a fan of Tulsi Gabbard. But on this particular matter, she’s absolutely correct.

Shall we pretend to be surprised?

Another mass shooting, this time in El Paso:

KTSM can confirm that 18 people were shot inside the Walmart. The extent of their injuries is unknown at this time. El Paso Police and multiple other law enforcement agencies are responding to a shooting at the Walmart an active shooter situation.

I wonder how many people from Las Vegas and Gilroy will just happen to be there to be interviewed by the media? I’d put the over/under on three.

Update: A fake white nationalist manifesto has already made the rounds and been debunked.

Update: The Associated Press quotes three witnesses who report seeing four gunmen:

A family of three was among a dozen people waiting outside a bus station. They were trying to return to their car that was in a blocked-off Walmart parking lot. “I heard the shots but I thought they were hits, like roof construction,” said Adriana Quezada, 39, who was in the women’s clothing section of Walmart with her two children. Quezada said she saw four men, dressed in black, moving together firing guns indiscriminately. Police confirmed only one gunman.

And yet, the only shooter in custody is a young drug-addled man. Again. I understand that eyewitness reports in stressful situations are intrinsically unreliable, but “four men dressed in black” are considerably more likely to be confused with “three men dressed in dark brown” or “six men dressed in blue” than zero men.