10 to 14 Days

And then it will be all over because the Russian military is exhausted. That’s the current globalist media narrative, anyway.

‘Ukraine has Russia on the run’

Russian forces may only be able to sustain full fighting capacity for another ‘ten to 14’ days, senior UK defence sources indicated last night. By that time they may struggle to make any significant progress – while finding it difficult to hold ground, according to the latest intelligence.

Despite another day in which bombs rained down on Ukrainian cities including Kyiv and Kharkiv, resistance to the onslaught has seen the invasion fall behind schedule, allies of Vladimir Putin admitted for the first time on Monday. And American officials said the ground advance, now in its third week, had largely stalled.

A senior UK source said last night: ‘Ukraine has Russia on the run. It is running out of manpower and running out of energy. As long as we keep pressing they’ve got ten to 14 days before reaching their culminating point. That’s when the strength of Ukraine’s resistance should become greater than Russia’s attacking force.’

Time will tell. I am extremely dubious, so I’m mostly posting this here for the record. We’ll revisit this professional military analysis on March 24 to see how it looks then. I’m anticipating it will look rather similar to the old “14 days to flatten the curve” approach.

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You’re the Insurgent Now

Former service members volunteering to fight the Russians in Ukraine are discovering that war isn’t quite as fun when the other side has air supremacy for a change. This is from a series of Reddit posts purporting to be from a volunteer military veteran in Ukraine:

Yes, I was here today and blown off the top bunk of my bunk bed in the barracks by the first missile. This is where all the foreign legion troops are, the 35 killed were all Ukrainian mostly due to a direct hit on their barracks next to mine. The base is destroyed, the weapons depot destroyed, possibly the end of the legion. About 60 people with their heads on straight including myself left after the attack. They’re sending untrained guys to the front with little ammo and shit AKs and they’re getting killed. The guys who stayed got bombed again in the afternoon and casualties aren’t clear. If you still want to to join them I’m not sure what the process will be since literally all the infrastructure supporting the training/assignments of volunteers is all destroyed. The guys who are there now will all be going to Kyiv and many will die, the legion is totally outgunned and has a few crazy Ukrainian leaders. After the attack one officer wanted to march everyone to Kyiv and fight. Absolute insanity. Stay home.

I didn’t go to Ukraine for the clout. I asked the right questions, deleted my posts, actually bought a plane ticket and brought my ass over. I said in another comment that yes it was 35 Ukrainians killed because their barracks got directly hit. The 180 bullshit is real Russian propaganda. If you think I’m a Russian agent you’re just in denial that the situation is absolutely fucked. Go ahead and join the legion, by all means, but be very aware of how bad Kyiv is going to get and be aware that Russians have warplanes and you will have next to nothing. Be very acceptant of the possibility of death. Those of us who left, including SF operators from multiple countries, are simply risk mitigating. No one wants to die in an unfair fight, and after getting absolutely fucking pummeled by massive cruise missiles today – yeah I kind of want people to think twice before turning their life upside down to go and volunteer.

Like a lot of dudes there have experience and really wanted to shape the battlefield and impact their advance, but ultimately they’re manning frontline positions that are going to get hammered with artillery and airstrikes, buried under rubble and your family never gets your body. That’s when a lot of guys say yeah this isn’t our fight, not like this.

Such are the perils of believing the globalist propaganda factory. These Western volunteers thought they were going to be going on patrols and hunting Russians in the same way they hunted jihadis in Afghanistan and Iraq. A dangerous sport, to be sure, but an activity that is more sport than war nonetheless. But, as they quickly discovered not long after their arrival, they’re not up against an ill-equipped, irregular 4GW insurgency, they’re up against one of the three most formidable professional militaries in the world.

Russia deliberately blew up foreign fighters and arms shipments at a Ukrainian base close to the Polish border on Sunday and has vowed to carry out more strikes in a direct warning to the West. Igor Konashenkov, a spokesman for Russia’s ministry of defence, said the base at Yavoriv – 12 miles from NATO territory – was struck by ‘long-range, high-precision’ weapons because it was hosting ‘foreign mercenaries and a large shipment of foreign weapons’. He added: ‘The destruction of foreign mercenaries who arrived on the territory of Ukraine will continue.’

Putin deliberately targeted Ukraine’s ‘foreign legion’ with strike 12 miles from NATO border, Daily Mail, 14 March 2022

The effectiveness of the Russians can be seen in the way they have effectively destroyed the entire Ukrainian foreign legion with a single missile strike without it ever even having the chance to enter the battle space.

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The Canadian Tea Party

The Canadian Truckers’ Convoy ended up pretty much as I anticipated, effecting zero change despite the media theater as it was easily dismantled by the authorities. So much for the Internet’s armchair logistics experts:

Some mistakes were merely operational. There was no vetting. I gave one person my pseudonym and an invented autobiography, and within hours I was in a boardroom with all the organizers, going through maps, talking about internal weak points, looking at charts, and inputting every important phone number into my contact list. The lack of operational security was astounding.

The grass-roots organizations also meant that no one—yet everyone—was in charge. It was a classic case of “too many chiefs, not enough Indians,” but worse, as if the chiefs had all been drinking mouthwash. So much time was wasted between defective people competing for status and control, including podcasters and lawyers who thought of themselves as serious leaders, that it felt like the Special Olympics of political resistance. Resultantly, there was no distinction between strategy and tactics. Some organizers became so committed to certain small tasks, they could not understand that a bigger picture existed, while at the same time, it was rare for anyone to discuss what success would look like.

Another problem was the lack of quality men: we had some who were brave and others who were sharp, but few who were both. Most damaging of all was that nearly every organizer saw the occupation and their battle with the regime through the lens of a feminine morality, with undue concern about how we would be perceived. There was no understanding of conflict. The organizers couldn’t even fathom the regime extending its power through the judiciary or the financial system, and every time the government used the tools within their control, the organizers would become histrionic, and take comfort in videos of commentary and ranting by political celebrities who supported the convoy.

Somehow, most organizers and demonstrators held two incompatible premises at the same time. They took for granted that the Canadian government had been acting illegally over the past two years, even harming its citizenry for their own gain; and also believed guilelessly that the government would not lie, seize donations, freeze personal finances, use brutal force, or commit any other illegal action regarding the convoy. Every time the government demonstrated its willingness not to “play fair,” there was widespread emotional breakdown among the organizers. Some left fearful for their lives, while others became meritoriously cavalier and tried to get themselves arrested, even if their skillset was irreplaceable. There was an indulgent narcissism in the desire to be arrested for “counselling to commit mischief” and other misdemeanors. Since most organizers were released without charge, there was a sense that you could achieve martyrdom without real sacrifice.

So, as usual, it accomplished nothing except to wake up more regular citizens to the fact that they are not going to be able to vote, protest, posture, or threaten their way out of the neo-liberal world order’s chains. Which is why nothing is likely to change before its eventual, and inevitable, collapse under the weight of its own inversions and internal contradictions.

As a general rule, very few people are moved to act unless they are made sufficiently uncomfortable first. And the societies of the WereWest are literally too fat, well-fed, overstimulated, and drug-addled to be even remotely uncomfortable. But they are fragile and increasingly unstable societies, and their collapse is clearly coming.

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Weekend Arktoons

SHADE Episode 30: Saving Face

SEASONS Episode 39: I Was…

FLYING SPARKS Episode 46: She’s Gone!

CHATEAU GRIEF Episode 66: Worth a Shot

QUANTUM MORTIS Episode 40: Who Stands to Gain

VEGFOLK FABLES Episode 57: Unrooted Vegfolk

THE RED TATTOO Episode 5: Prologue

BEN GARRISON CLASSICS Episode 34: Exorcist

CHUCK DIXON PRESENTS: COMEDY: Episode 40: That Yo-Yo

PAPER DOLL VERONIKA Episode 16: Lend Me Thine Ears

CLASSIC BIBLE TALES Episode 46: Healing of the Paralytic

Saving Face image number 5
SHADE

Foreign Fighters in Ukraine

It’s increasingly clear that the Ukrainians were planning an invasion of the Donbass that was prevented by the Russian special military operation in light of the fact that foreign military contractors were already present, armed, and organized into units in Ukraine weeks before the operation began.

ONE of the first British fighters in Ukraine told yesterday of his ferocious battle with Russian troops at the Battle of Antonov.

Jason, who served two tours of Iraq, told The Sun: “The Ukrainians fought like lions and I’m proud I was alongside them. What Putin is doing is terrorism. He’s bombing kids and families for nothing. He’s a war criminal.”

He flew to Ukraine at the start of last month. He recalled: “When I told my mates they were like, ‘What, are you mad?’. I’m a qualified combat medic and have done seven years working as a private military contractor. I wanted to go and do some good.”

He set up home in Kyiv and linked up with foreign fighters ahead of the invasion. Jason was sleeping when a pal woke him on the morning Putin’s troops and tanks invaded.

He told The Sun: “The world just blew up. You could hear rockets coming over the buildings. In the distance there were bright lights flashing all over the city from the Russian bombardment. It was completely surreal.”

Jason dashed out of his city centre flat in full body armour and carrying an AK-47. His unit quickly joined a detachment of Ukrainian troops heading to defend Hostomel Airport.

The fact that Jason subsequently ran away and is already back in the UK giving interviews to the British media should suffice to indicate how well the war is going for Ukraine. The March 13 report from the Russian Ministry of Defense tends to generally accord with the foreign fighter’s decision to go home.

During the special operation, the Russian armed forces disabled 3,687 military infrastructure facilities of Ukraine, Defense Ministry Spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on Sunday. According to him, 99 aircraft, 128 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,194 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 121 multiple rocket launchers, 443 field artillery pieces and mortars, 991 units of special military vehicles were destroyed.

Once the dust has settled, it will be interesting to compare the Russian reports with historical US reports and determine which were more accurate at the time of the report. All armies – indeed all soldiers – tend to overreport enemy capabilities and casualties.

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Reversing Demographic Decline

Never ever accept the baseless lie that government policies can’t reverse European demographic decline. Hungary has proved, conclusively, that it is not merely possible to do so, it is actually quite easy and relatively inexpensive:

State Secretary for Family and Youth Affairs Katalin Novák announced on Thursday that Hungary had seen a rise in both the number of births and a 5.7 per cent rise in the fertility rate in the first four months of this year, compared to the same period in 2019.

“Good news again!” she stated added that marriages have also increased with one-and-a-half more marriages recorded this year compared to the previous year.

The report comes after Hungary passed pro-family legislation last year that included a Family Protection Action Plan which increased government spending on families by 224 billion Hungarian Forints (£619 million).

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been a major advocate of pro-family policies to increase his country’s birthrate as opposed to mass migration.

Among the many pro-family policies has been a government grant of 10 million Forints (£27,000) which is initially styled as a loan but can be wholly forgiven once a couple has at least three children.

Mass immigration has never been necessary to solve economic problems. The free movement of peoples doctrine is every bit as much a satanic lie as the free trade nonsense. Pro-family legislation is a moral imperative for any society that wishes to survive and thrive.

Objections from childless libertarian theoreticians to “state interference” are both irrelevant and wrong.

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The End of Putin

Francis Fukuyama, the only predictor whose track record is worse than Scott “I did NOT see that coming” Adams, is convinced that history is still in the process of ending, it just didn’t end when he said it did.

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications:

  • Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
  • The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
  • There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.
  • The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors.
  • The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they’ve kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.
  • The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground.
  • Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?
  • The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings.
  • The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan.
  • Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription. Let’s not be prematurely defeatist.
  • Turkish drones will become bestsellers.
  • A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.

Let’s just say that Fukuyama’s track record is so hapless that one would might quite reasonably start shorting Turkish drone manufacturers on the basis of these prognostications.

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Zelensky’s Challenge

The president of the neocon puppet regime sounds like a leader who cares deeply about “his” people, doesn’t he:

Volodymyr Zelensky has slammed the West for its inaction, saying today he ‘doesn’t see any bravery from NATO’ as he pleaded for more involvement from allies in peace negotiations and offered to pay for more anti-missile systems. In response, the US made lukewarm promises of taking ‘diplomatic steps’ to help the Ukrainian government.

Zelensky, who claimed 1,300 Ukrainian troops have been killed so far and 500 Russians surrendered yesterday, also said Putin’s forces can only take Kyiv if they ‘raze the city to the ground’, with Kremlin troops inching closer to the capital and conflict raging nearby today, endangering attempted evacuations.

Ironically, Russian President Vladimir Putin observably cares more about the Ukrainian people than their so-called “President” does.

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