China Hits Back

Even though the trade war is not the war that China can win right now.

China will soon impose an additional 34 per cent tariffs on all American imports in retaliation for Donald Trump’s 34 per cent levy. Beijing announced the measure today, the most serious escalation in a trade war with Trump that has fed fears of a recession and triggered a global stock market rout.

The new tariff, which comes into effect on April 10, matches the rate of the ‘reciprocal’ tariff imposed by Trump this week. The levies are in addition to the existing tariffs already imposed on US goods.

US exports to China totalled $143.5 billion last year, according to Office of the US Trade Representative data. Oilseeds and grains, including soybeans, machinery and aerospace products were America’s top exports to the country. The US imported $438.9 billion worth of goods from China last year, with top imports including electrical and electronic equipment, machinery, toys, and plastics.

I don’t know why China is doing this, since the balance of trade surplus means that the more US-China trade declines, the more it will hurt China rather than the USA. All I can think is that China isn’t actually concerned about the inevitable trade war, but is more interested in gradually turning up the heat in a conflict that it knows to be unavoidable.

Time would appear to be on China’s side in this regard. It has been 25 years since Bill Clinton announced the United States-China Relation Act of 2000 that opened the floodgates of US-China trade.

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It’s Just the Opening Bid

The “tariff rates” to which the God-Emperor 2.0 utilized to generate his newly-announced tariffs aren’t actually anything of the sort.

Flexport’s team was able to reverse engineer the formula the Administration used to generate the “reciprocal tariffs.” It’s quite simple, they took the trade deficit the US has with each country and divided it by our imports from that country.

This makes a lot more sense, because Switzerland doesn’t have a 61 percent tariff on anything. Which means that we’re in the realm of rhetoric here, not dialectic, and I suspect what the God-Emperor intends is for everyone to simply accept a 10-12 percent tariff rate without any reciprocating tariffs on their own imports.

I’ll admit, I’ve seldom been more wrong than seeing the initial tariffs being graduated UK-EU-CH instead of the other way around, as I was expecting. But Trump’s usual tactic is to slap his interlocutor into accepting his framework, then offering a much more palatable deal that would have looked unattainable before the metaphorical slap in the face.

Regardless, he’s doing the right thing if he wants to rebuild America’s industrial capabilities again.

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Shall We Step Into the Narrative?

This will be the most Gaimanesque thing you’ve ever read in your life, possibly that you will ever read, even if you happen to have been a former fan who read everything that Mr. Tubcuddle has ever written. Not for totally consensual mutual bathing survivors or for the faint of heart.

The Cauldron of Possibilities

Come, let me tell you a secret. The night has unfolded its ink-stained wings, and there is a tub—my tub—waiting like a vessel of polished ivory beneath a sky trembling with stars. It is no ordinary tub, you understand. It is a cauldron of possibilities, a porcelain oracle brimming with water warm as a whispered promise. And it occurs to me, as the moon hoists itself above the pines, that you and I are characters in a story half-written, poised on the brink of a paragraph that could only ever be penned in steam and starlight.

Picture it, if you will: a clawfoot sentinel, older than sin and twice as elegant, crouched in a thicket of wild rosemary and twilight. The air smells of damp earth and distant bonfires, of secrets the wind carried here from places we’ve yet to name. Fireflies drift like embers loosed from some primordial hearth, and the water—ah, the water—shimmers as if the stars themselves dissolved into it, liquid constellations swirling around your ankles, your knees, the curve of your shoulders.

You might protest, of course. The night is cool, you’ll say, and the world beyond this garden is a cacophony of oughts and musts. But consider: the chill is but a goblin’s breath, fleeting and harmless, and the steam rising from the water is a spell to banish it. As for the world? Let it spin on without us awhile. The tub is a life raft, a sanctuary, a confessional where the only vows exchanged are between your skin and the silence.

I cannot promise you safety, mind. There are risks in such an undertaking. The water may play alchemist, transmuting your weariness into something lighter than foam. Your bones might forget their burdens; your mind might wander off, barefoot and grinning, into the labyrinth of stories we’ll conjure between us. You may find yourself laughing at nothing, or everything, or the sheer absurdity of two souls huddled in a tub while the cosmos glitters above like a diamond-studded net.

And yes, there is vulnerability here. To slip into warm water is to surrender to the oldest magic—the same that cradled us before we drew our first breath. But I will be your witness, and you mine. We’ll speak in half-sentences, in glances, in the language of ripples. We’ll let the water carry off the residue of hours and obligations, the silt of small griefs. We’ll be rinsed clean of all our many sins, if only for tonight.

Stay. The night is a raconteur, and it has gifted us this scene: steam curling into the dark, the symphony of crickets and creaking branches, the tub’s embrace like a mother’s arms. There are stories that can only be told submerged. There are truths that dissolve unless spoken into hot, wet air.

Come. The water is growing restless. The stars are leaning closer, eager to eavesdrop. And I—well, I am but a man with a tub and a whimsy, hoping you’ll help me turn this ordinary evening into a tale worth remembering.

What do you say, my dear? Shall we step into the narrative together?

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NOTA BENE: Interestingly enough, this was graded as only 11 percent AI written by Grammarly


EU Hit From Both Sides

The EU’s reaction to getting a taste of its own medicine is downright humorous:

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyden has three big concerns with the new trade/tariff reset. I strongly suggest everyone to read the EU concerns slowly to fully absorb decades of hypocrisy now surfacing:

  • The EU will not be able to compete for U.S. market share with 20% general tariffs and 25% auto tariffs.
  • The EU must deploy countermeasures against the risk of losing industrial capacity and manufacturing to the United States.
  • The EU must defend itself against China dumping cheap products into the EU now rejected by the USA.

Von der Leyen is concerned mostly about the extremely valuable U.S. consumer being leveraged by President Trump, essentially blocking exploitation from EU and Asia. The EU will not tolerate losing access to the most valuable customers in the world, Americans.

So, just to be clear, the EU is now going to a) fight a shooting war with Russia, b) fight an economic war with the USA, and c) fight an economic war with China.

I strongly recommend exiting the so-called Union at the earliest opportunity to every leader of an EU member state. The EU is the last surviving vestige of the neo-liberal world order and it’s going to collapse soon.

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TEMPUS OCCULTUM

When I mourned the death of Umberto Eco, it was also the sense of an opportunity lost. I was planning to see him only a few weeks later, and I was hoping to run an idea past him that I thought he might enjoy. He is gone now, although thankfully he has left a significant treasure trove of books and other writings behind for our edification. But then I thought, if I could get my new best friend to mimic the styles of Neil Gaiman and Larry Correia so well, why could I not combine that ability with my own ability to think in an appropriately convoluted manner, that, while it might not approximate the great man at the peak of his powers, might at least hope to exceed that of his lesser works.

So, let me know what you think of this, especially if you are a serious Eco fan or are sufficiently familiar with his novels. If there is enough interest, I’ll put up a daily post on Arktoons to keep the story going. And don’t worry, this will have no effect on my finishing either SIGMA GAME or A GRAVE OF GODS.

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Continue reading “TEMPUS OCCULTUM”

Democracy in the UK

It’s a good thing the British Labour Party aren’t authoritarians and that they’re fighting so strongly against authoritarianism in Russia, because without them, the British wouldn’t have freedom and democracy and protection from Gab! Meanwhile, in the UK…

Just days after we exposed the UK government’s escalating attacks – including their admission of targeting our infrastructure providers in an act of economic terrorism – new developments confirm that our warnings about the dangers of the UK’s Online Safety Act are being recognized at the highest levels, while simultaneously revealing the truly draconian nature of their threats.

First, the Vindication: A recent report in The Guardian has revealed that officials from the U.S. State Department directly challenged the UK’s communications regulator, Ofcom, regarding the severe threat the Online Safety Act poses to freedom of expression.

According to the report:

-Officials from the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL) met with Ofcom in London.

-During this meeting, they explicitly raised concerns about how the Online Safety Act risks infringing free speech.

-A State Department spokesperson confirmed this, stating: “As vice-president Vance has said, we are concerned about freedom of expression in the United Kingdom. It is important that the UK respect and protect freedom of expression.”

This is significant validation of everything Gab has been fighting against. Even elements within the US government recognize the UK Online Safety Act for the threat it is.

Now, the Stark Escalation: While Ofcom downplays the Act, claiming it only targets “illegal content,” the reality is far more sinister and extends into unprecedented personal threats. The scope of this law isn’t limited; it potentially applies to any user-to-user service accessible in the UK.

And here’s the truly chilling part: Buried within this tyrannical legislation is the power for UK authorities to bring criminal charges against named senior managers at companies deemed non-compliant.

Andrew Torba is at the forefront of this fight and he’s really proven the importance of one man standing his ground against the forces that Clown World brings to bear on every organization that refuses to submit to its Narrative. Fortunately, it appears the God-Emperor 2.0 and his administration are starting to pay attention to this sort of thing, but we can’t count on him or anyone else to ride to the rescue.

We just have to keep building our platforms and infrastructures. I should have some good news on those fronts on tonight’s Arkhaven Nights.

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The Trump Tariffs

They’re hitting Switzerland harder than we expected, and the UK considerably less than we expected, but this will not interrupt our plans nor is it likely to change our book prices. If we have to, we can obviously increase our manufacturing in the USA, but some of the improvements in the coming payment systems should cover most of the increased costs for us. And, as with all things Trump, wait two weeks before attempting to analyze anything.

Regardless, we’re on top of it, we’re prepared for it, and we’ll deal with it in whatever way least disrupts our subscribers.

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Rumors of War: Flashpoint Iran

There are growing rumors that the USA is going to hit Iran hard on Israel’s behalf:

I’m currently in Tel Aviv, and according to several senior political, military and diplomatic sources, the United States and Israel are preparing to launch a strike on Iran that will finally eradicate the threat posed by the country’s nuclear weapons programme.

‘This should have been avoided a long time ago’, a senior Israeli government source told me. ‘It’s time to draw a line.’

On Monday, Trump announced with typical grandiloquence: ‘If they [Iran] don’t make a deal, there will be bombing… it will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.’ Some observers believed this was just more hyperbolic rhetoric. But the Israeli source was clear. ‘It’s not just a crazy insistence. It’s extremely important for the stability of Israel and the world.’

Threats of military action against Iran’s nuclear weapons programme have been made before. But there’s now clear evidence that, this time, both the US and Israel intend to do more than just rattle their sabres. A week ago the US deployed a trio of B2 ‘Spirit’ stealth bombers, accompanied by long-range refuelling assets, to its Chagos Islands base on Diego Garcia, bringing the total strength of the bomber force there to seven. This was significant because it’s rare to see such a major concentration of these sophisticated – and expensive – assets, and the B2s have the capability to deploy the GBU-57 ‘Bunker Buster’ which can penetrate Iran’s hardened nuclear shelters.

According to a second senior diplomatic source: ‘From Israel’s perspective, with Trump in the White House, this represents the optimum moment to deal with Iran. There won’t be a better chance.’

This isn’t what Americans elected President Trump for. But it is what his AIPAC-affiliated financial investors supported him for. It’s all very impressive and intimidating, I’m sure. But two things occur to me:

  1. The US military thought it could take down the Russians too.
  2. The USA’s Syracuse moment is coming. This may not be it. But it’s exactly the sort of thing that declining empires on the verge of collapse have a tendency to do, because they believe they still can.

We’ll see. I still find it difficult to believe that the God-Emperor is anywhere nearly as genuinely Israel First as his public rhetoric tends to paint him. And certainly, the US-based diasporans don’t tend to believe he’s on truly on their side.

There is only one way to find out, and that is to wait and see.

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Performative Bluster and Sychronized Idiocy

Things are not looking good at all for the core nations of the European Union. The smart thing to do for the smaller nations is to get out of it as soon as possible… although the moronic strategeries of the Starmer regime in the UK demonstrate that simply leaving the EU isn’t enough, the point is to abandon their commitment to suicide by Clown World.

Mr. Trump, the uber-realist, knows that the Russians are going to roll up in Ukraine this spring and there is increasingly not much that can be done about that, except to try to put the best face on it — which is, that it wasn’t his war. As long as the coke freak Zelensky remains in charge, Ukraine will be negotiation-unworthy, as the Russian phrase goes. So, US-Russia peace talks were largely diplomatic showbiz. Both Putin and Mr. Trump were painfully aware of this, and hence, Mr. Trump’s latest performative bluster about “more sanctions” will probably not amount to anything.

And also hence, the synchronized idiocy on display in France, Germany, and the UK. They were all-in on the neo-con scheme that is now falling apart and its failure has driven them plumb crazy. As the US drops out of the stupid proxy war, they declare their intention to take it from here and go beat-up Russia. Their war-drums are teaspoons beating on so many quiches.

Soon-to-be chancellor Friedrich Merz proposes an 800-billion-Euro debt spree to finance the re-arming of Germany, which, just now, is utterly incapable of war. He is insane.

German industry is collapsing from a lack of affordable natural gas (as arranged by “Joe Biden” blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines, danke schön). Turning Volkswagen factories to missile production will not help the German people one bit. It probably will remind them about the Weimar hyper-inflation, though.

Macron pledges to put French boots on the ground in Ukraine. Ain’t gonna happen.

Today, his stooge judiciary found political rival Marine LePen guilty of a Mickey Mouse offense in order to bar her from running against him in the next election. Ain’t gonna work. He will provoke the biggest national uprising since the Bastille. His government will be too busy putting down French Revolution 2.0 to play war games in history’s graveyard of armies. Maybe he’ll try nukes. I’m sure that’ll work — if you’re eager to see Russian hypersonic “hazelnuts” rain down on the Île-de-France.

And then, there is the amazing idiot PM Keir Starmer in the UK, calling on his “coalition of the willing” to step up and intervene in the lost cause that is Ukraine.

How many hands went up on that call? For practical purposes, the Brits have no war-fighting capacity whatsoever, and no resources for generating such capacity. And, anyway, they are facing some dreadful combo of a civil war / internal jihad against their own indigenous population, plus an economic collapse cherry-on-top.

In short, Europe has so many incipient existential problems that the whole story is about to shift its focus from the already-sealed fate of Ukraine to the very dark prospects for the core nations of Old-World Western Civ.

At this point, Vladimir Putin merits the Nobel Peace Prize several times over in light of his refusal to respond to the various casus belli he’s been repeatedly provided by the USA, Germany, France, and Britain, as per the New York Times.

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Speaking of Convergence

Not the social justice kind, of course. Here’s a little treat courtesy of my new best friend and one of the commenters at Sigma Game, who inadvertently produced a line that I thought sounded… familiar. So, naturally, I took the opportunity to turn it into a short story. Do enjoy, and feel free to discuss on SG.

A BRAVE TALE OF A TRUE HEART

I’ve been walking my crush home since last week to protect her from all the creeps walking around. Next week I’m going to introduce myself to her.

Right now, though, I was content to stay in the shadows, watching from a distance as she made her way down the dimly lit sidewalk. Her name was Elise, and she worked the late shift at the diner on 5th and Main. Every night at 11:30, she stepped out, adjusted her bag over her shoulder, and started the six-block walk to her apartment. And every night, I followed.

Not in a creepy way. At least, I hoped not. The city had gotten bad lately—muggers, weirdos, and worse. The kind of things most people didn’t believe in until it was too late. I’d seen the news reports: Missing Persons. Unexplained Attacks. Animal Maulings. The cops didn’t have a clue. But I did.

I knew what was out there.

Continue reading “Speaking of Convergence”