WWIII is Already Underway

If Ron Unz is correct and Vladimir Putin and Xi Xinping have already reduced their international travel due to concerns about assassination by Clown World, I think it’s safe to conclude that peace is not even a remote possibility in the near future:

The Hudson Institute is a leading DC think-tank, quite influential in mainstream political circles, and a report with five co-authors that runs 128 pages must surely carry considerable weight in establishment circles. So when it suggests that the Chinese government is fragile and might soon collapse, those policy makers hostile to China are likely to take such views quite seriously.

Suppose that a leading Chinese think-tank with close ties to the PRC government published a weighty report predicting that America might soon collapse, then went on to argue that Chinese military forces would need to be deployed in our own country to seize our key military and technological assets and also establish a new government organized along Chinese lines. I doubt that most American political leaders or ordinary citizens would view such Chinese proposals with total equanimity, and indeed the blogger quoted a shocked Western pro-China business executive who succinctly summarized some of the striking elements in that Hudson Institute research study:

…which provides detailed operational plans for inducing Chinese regime collapse through systematic information operations, financial warfare, and covert influence campaigns, followed by detailed protocols for U.S. post-collapse management including military occupation, territorial reorganization, and the installation of a political and cultural system vassalized to the U.S.

Rand and Hudson are two of our leading mainstream think-tanks and the New Yorker is one of our most prestigious media outlets. Taken together those major articles and reports could easily convince the ignorant and suggestible ideologues in our government that the Chinese military was weak and the Chinese government fragile and ripe for collapse.

If delusional beliefs regarding the fragility of the Iranian and Russian governments had already led to American assassination attempts against their top leadership, similar reasoning might easily result in targeting those of China as well, especially President Xi Jinping, widely regarded as the strongest Chinese leader in decades. And given all of the recent American assassination projects, the Chinese government might certainly have itself reached such conclusions.

China and Russia are the two leading members of the BRICS movement, which held its 17th summit last month in Brazil. The media noted that neither Russian President Putin nor Chinese President Xi attended in person, with the latter missing his first BRICS summit since he came to power 13 years ago.

Xi’s surprising absence caused some discussion in the media. I initially paid little attention to this issue, but then some commenter suggested an obvious explanation: Both Xi and Putin were concerned about the possible risk of American assassination.

Brazil is located within the Western Hemisphere, a region under full American military domination. Given the extremely reckless and unpredictable behavior of the American government, with President Trump having publicly threatened to assassinate Iran’s top leader just a couple of weeks earlier, both China and Russia may have believed that some risks should best be avoided.

Over the years, Xi and Putin had both met on numerous occasions with Iranian President Raisi, with whom they had developed an excellent working relationship, and surely his 2024 death in a mysterious helicopter crash while returning from a foreign trip would have concentrated their minds.

It’s been very difficult for Americans to understand that the rest of the world doesn’t aspire to become like them. And while Americans also like to think of the USA as the big dog on the world stage, I don’t think many of them grasp that many countries around the world, including some very powerful ones, are beginning to conclude that the big dog is now rabid.

And what is the point of talking to a rabid dog? What can one possibly hope to accomplish?

DISCUSS ON SG

Convergence in the Home

I shouldn’t have to tell anyone who reads this site regularly to avoid all Amazon Home products, but I have no doubt that more than a few of you have decided that the convenience outweighs the possible risks. You might want to reconsider the matter.

A delivery driver for Amazon misheard an automated doorbell for “racism” and reported it.

Nobody was home.

Amazon turned off all the lights, shut the entire smart home down before it even started its investigation.

Law enforcement via corporation with no due process.

It’s fascinating that it only took eight years to actually arrive at the comedic dystopia about which some were joking back in the day. I think this has also disabused those of us with libertarian inclinations of our previous imaginings about corpocratic rule being any less insidious than rule by government.

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The Russia That Will Say No

Hal Turner contemplates the significance of the US Special Envoy’s trip to Moscow:

What does Witkoff bring to Moscow?

  • Cosmetic concessions, presumably in the area of de facto territorial recognition
  • Hints of economic cooperation
  • Classic threats of sanctions – if Moscow doesn’t “give in”

What Witkoff won’t do:

Accept the Russian minimum demands which are . . .

  • Recognition of the new regions (Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporozhe) as part of Russia.
  • Demilitarization and neutrality of Ukraine.

He won’t accept them because that would mean: The West would have lost. And the world would have seen it.

Scenario: A Russian “no” to Witkoff’s offer would most likely not simply lead to a new low in negotiations – but to Phase II of a global systemic conflict. Then the world would no longer be in the shadow of a unipolar center, but in a new bipolar confrontation.

On the one side: The expanded West – that is, the NATO states, the EU, plus Australia, Japan, South Korea, and some dependent partners in the Global South.

On the other side: An emerging counterweight – with Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and possibly other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

In this scenario, it is only a matter of time before the previously “frozen” conflict over Taiwan also actively emerges – as the next geopolitical leverage in the struggle for influence, sovereignty, and system dominance.

Conclusion: Witkoff’s trip is not a diplomatic exchange – It is an attempt to delay the end of the unipolar world order.

This smacks of a desperate Hail Mary thrown by the Short Fake Trump fake administration, and I see absolutely no sign that Russia is inclined to accept anything short of its core demands because it is winning both the economic war and the military war. Everyone, and especially the Russians, has learned that accepting Clown World’s shiny beads and trinkets comes at a steep price and is never, ever worth it over time.

And I think Hal Turner is right to believe that the Clown Worlders running the USA, the UK, and the EU will try to fight a war they know they can’t win rather than accept the inevitable end of “the unipolar world order” that they ruled for nearly 40 years. To do so would be foolish and stupid, but then, they are foolish, stupid, and evil.

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Tripling Down on Failure

Western sanctions on Russia have completely failed. Additional sanctions on China have completely failed. So now, instead of accepting their defeat in both economic and proxy war in Ukraine, both the USA and the EU are going to try sanctioning India. This effort too will fail.

On Sunday, a top aide to President Donald Trump accused India of financing Russia’s war in Ukraine by buying oil from Moscow. “What he [Trump] said very clearly is that it is not acceptable for India to continue financing this war by purchasing the oil from Russia,” said Stephen Miller, deputy chief of staff at the White House and one of the US president’s most influential aides. “People will be shocked to learn that India is basically tied with China in purchasing Russian oil. That’s an astonishing fact,” Miller said on Fox News.

This marks a significant hardening of tone, signalling that bipartisan pressure on India’s Russia policy may persist regardless of the administration in power.

The Indian government issued a stern response, saying Delhi would keep purchasing oil from Moscow if it is in line with national interests. Its foreign ministry stated that country’s energy purchases are guided by market dynamics and national interests. “⁠The government is committed to prioritizing the welfare of Indian consumers. Our energy purchases will be based on price, availability and market conditions,” the statement read.

Despite Trump’s claims that India had stopped buying Russian oil after his threats, the Indian government said it is not aware of any pauses in imports. People in the oil and gas industry have confirmed that the government has not issued any officials requests to refiners to stop purchasing Russian oil.

As global energy flows are increasingly weaponized, India’s path is becoming tougher, but also more clearly defined. This is no longer merely a question of compliance with sanctions; it is about resisting the politicization of trade and asserting agency in a fragmented global order. The message to the West at large: India’s energy decisions will not be dictated by external red lines.

The era of quiet compromise is over. In its place, a more assertive India is stepping forward, redefining its energy calculus, managing geopolitical headwinds, and defending its autonomy with both pragmatism and resolve.

It’s really remarkable to observe how prodigiously stupid the flailing actions of a declining empire and the posturing rhetoric of its retarded politicians are. It’s as if they have no ability to grasp the fact that they are in no position to demand the things they are demanding.

DISCUSS ON SG

Mr. McCarthy Responds

Now, first of all, keep in mind my immense respect for Dennis McCarthy. He came at a long-held, widespread assumption from a new direction and presented a convincing, conclusive case. I believe that I have done much the same for the Neo-Darwinian Theory of Evolution by Natural Selection, and given my initial skepticism about the authorship of Shakespeare’s plays, I would never fault anyone who, upon their first encounter with MITTENS, is even more skeptical given its supposed foundation in science.

Here is McCarthy’s immediate and quite understandably dubious response:

While I like iconoclasts, this one’s wrong: Domesticated dogs (Canis familiaris) evolved from gray wolves in less than 20,000 years, and likely much faster. This is a crystal-clear counterexample to MITTENS.

Specifically, more than 400 dog breeds have been created with massive morphological and behavioral differences: size, skull shape, coat, intelligence, sociability.

Yes, the changes were driven by human-imposed artificial selection, but that is just a special case of natural selection—only more intense and targeted.

Despite extremely short timescales, huge numbers of heritable genetic traits have been modified and fixed.

If MITTENS were valid, such explosive change shouldn’t be possible—but it is, and it’s been documented in real time.

There are two reasons why artificial selection as demonstrated by domestic dog breeding not only do not provide a counterexample to MITTENS, but to the contrary, underline it and even offer one potential alternative to TENS and its modern variants.

  • In artificial selection, there is no need to wait for a random mutation to first appear, then prove sufficiently advantageous to fixate throughout the entire population. The preferred genes, which already exist, are identified and selected, after which they are provided a fitness advantage that is much, much stronger than anything possible in nature, which reduces the number of generations required to establish fixation across the population of the new breed by orders of magnitude.
  • In each of the creations of the artificially selected dog breeds, a very small population bottleneck was created of the sort that is absolutely impossible in nature. In fact, any population that falls below 10,000 individuals is much more likely to go extinct than fixate one single mutation, let alone thousands. Hence the term “endangered” as it is used with regards to species. Since MITTENS relies upon actual population demographics with reproductive spread being the primary constraint on the extent of any advantageous mutation, a critique that relies upon a) artificial selection and b) an externally imposed population bottleneck cannot serve as an effective counterexample.

Consider ChatGPT’s response to being presented with the requisite math; ChatGPT was even more initially skeptical. But remember, in order for the evolutionary framework to survive the mathematical challenge presented by the known genetic delta from the Last Chimp Human Common Ancestor to modern humanity, it is necessary to fixate a mutation across the entire human population every 40 generations on average.

Fixation in Humans in <40 Generations Is Almost Impossible

Unless the population is:

  • Extremely small (e.g., <1,000 individuals),
  • Undergoing a catastrophic bottleneck (mass extinction-like),
  • Practicing unrealistic reproductive skew (e.g., a single male sires nearly every child),
  • Or experiencing non-Mendelian inheritance (e.g., viral insertions, horizontal transmission, etc.),

Then fixation in <40 generations is not just unlikely—it’s mathematically implausible in humans.

Even with selection, you’re correct: the constraint is reproduction, not advantage. The logistics of human reproduction and descent limit how fast any allele can spread, no matter how advantageous.

Fixation in humans in <40 generations is, barring some extreme and hypothetical bottleneck, essentially impossible.

Notice that the list of exceptions actually tend to fit the domesticated dog breed scenarios rather nicely. If a mutation is to fix in 40 generations, it would need to go from 1 copy to ~8 billion people, assuming constant or growing population sizes. That would require a 300x greater spread than the upper limit of human reproductive skew for every single one of the ~15 million base pairs that humans have in common but do not share with either a) chimpanzees or b) the hypothetical LCHCA.

With regards to dogs and wolves, their genetic distance is one-sixth the distance of the chimpanzee-human gap and their generations are less than one-twelfth as long as human generations. Add in the artificial selection and the genetic bottleneck necessarily involved in the domestication of the Last Lupine Canine Common Ancestor and it should not be surprising to conclude that 20,000 years would be sufficient to cross that delta without contradicting MITTENS in any way.

That being said, I very much welcome skeptical and intelligent minds critiquing MITTENS, as only a rock-solid case capable of meeting every objection is going to overturn more than 150 years of scientific dogma.

DISCUSS ON SG

Inevitable Iconoclasm

I’m very much looking forward to seeing what arch-iconoclast Dennis McCarthy is going to do to the official story of Charles Darwin and the Neo-Darwinian dogma once he discovers MITTENS and realizes that it is far more likely that the real author of Shakespeare’s plays was the recently deceased Queen Elizabeth II than Neo-Darwinian theories of evolution and its various epicycles can even begin to account for 10 percent of the human genetic variance.

You need to experience certain ideas, events, images, technologies, etc., before you can use them, whether in whole or in part, to recreate new ideas.

This insight also offers a new response to the “watchmaker argument” most famously stated by the Christian philosopher, William Paley. As Paley asked, repeating a well-known rationale for intelligent design, if you were to happen across a watch in a forest, would not the complexity and purpose of the time-piece imply the existence of a designer? If so, then would not a human being, which is far more complicated than the watch, suggest a designer as well?

Dawkins may be the scientist who has provided the most comprehensive response to Paley’s challenge in The Blind Watchmaker (1986), the title of which is based on this famous argument. Dawkins showed that natural selection can indeed give the appearance of design by continuously fomenting the proliferation of beneficial adaptations.

Still, it may be instructive to point out that, while many people today try to use Paley’s arguments against evolution, the simple fact is that watches—just like iguanas and finches—had to evolve from much simpler systems with occasional incremental advances occurring over time.

Humans could not have constructed 19th-century clocks before the invention of cogs, gears, and levers—let alone before the practice of metallurgy, the use of numerical symbols, or the concept of time itself, etc. Instead, over many generations, simple timepieces had to accumulate small variations in the mental wombs of humans. Some of these variations were more helpful than others and led to their reproduction and proliferation.

Yes, the watch had to have a direct maker (the watchmaker)—just like the watchmaker, himself, also had to have a direct maker (his parents.) But the watchmaker did not invent the timepiece out of nothing and could not have been personally responsible for all its complexity. The basic plan of the watch passed though prior generations of clockmakers, continuously evolving along the way. Likewise, the configuration of the human watchmaker was also passed along through the DNA of all his ancestors, continuously evolving along the way. Neither the extraordinary complexity of the watch nor that of the watchmaker was created all in one miraculous burst—and certainly not by an immaterial and supernatural force.

As it happens, Paley’s arguments are correct, not because they are a rebuttal or a logical disproof of the various Neo-Darwinian epicycles, but simply because they led him to reject the obvious impossibility of evolution through natural selection.

The obvious and mathematical fact is that “the configuration of the human watchmaker” was definitely NOT “passed along through the DNA of all his ancestors, continuously evolving along the way” for the obvious reason that it could not have.

Mathematicians, physicists, and artificial intelligences have all checked and repeatedly confirmed the absolute impossibility of a sufficient number of mutational fixations occurring in the maximum nine million years available for the process.

And the reason the innumerate biologists keep insisting upon the impossible is that not one of them, from Charles Darwin to Richard Dawkins, has ever bothered to do the very simple math of human demographics and reproduction that is required for the evolutionary fairy tale to hold up in the aftermath of the sequencing of the human genome. Mendel was a blow, but MITTENS is a stake in the chest, a decapitation, and iron nails hammering the coffin shut.

I don’t blame McCarthy or anyone else for failing to notice this, because virtually no one but an economist is sufficiently accustomed to think in terms of millions, billions, and trillions to spot the obvious mathematical absurdity required to account for 15-20 million base pairs repeatedly fixating across the entire human population over the period of time involved.

Anyhow, I think it will be tremendously interesting if McArthy ever turns his formidable powers of skeptical investigation onto Mr. Darwin, his theory, and its many revisions. He doesn’t need to bother with Mr. Dawkins, of course, as the up-to-date evolutionists have already retreated to the very randomness that Dawkins sought to disprove with his inept little attempt at writing code.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Revised Schedule

The results of the subscribers’ poll, in which nearly one-third of the Library subscribers made their opinions known, are now available on the Castalia Library substack. The new schedules have also been announced. A brief summary:

  • Library goes to 4 books per year. Price unchanged.
  • Libraria goes to 4 books per year. Price reduced.
  • History goes to 3 books per year. Prices unchanged.
  • Cathedra stays at 2 books per year. Price unchanged.
  • Refunds provided to all Library, History, and Libraria subscribers upon request. Details at the substack.

The entire team is in agreement that this plan is the best we are able to do in the circumstances. It might be worth noting that this was a community effort, as it was a subscriber who came up with the plan in the first place.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Swamp of Retarded Evil

A righteous denunciation of the dumbest place on the Internet:

“Oh, what’s the big deal? Isn’t this just harmless geeky fun?”

No. I refuse. It’s not harmless; it’s the most insidious and pervasive cultural force of our time. It’s corroding the bonds that hold society together. It destroyed a generation and shows no signs of stopping. You can’t escape it: everything is ugly and fat and dorky and trite and corny and satanic and fake and gay and soy and cringe. All mainstream culture is created by and for resentful geek losers. Everything sucks now and it’s because of Reddit.

“C’mon, isn’t it just a web forum for geeks? Why are you attributing all of society’s ills to some forum? And doesn’t it contain, like, a million different communities with opposing views?”

Yes, Reddit is a geek forum, and yes, it contains multitudes. But somehow, across all these communities, from r/knitting to /rWhoaThatsInteresting to r/ProgrammerHumor” to r/UpliftingNews, a distinct gestalt has taken prominence, on and off the site. The richest and most powerful people in the world are Reddit. The professional managerial class is Reddit. All of Western society runs on Redditism. The Redditor reigns supreme. This is, so far, the Reddit Century.

“WTF are you talking about? What is ‘the Redditor?’ Just someone who uses the website? Aren’t you overreacting a bit?”

No. The Redditor is an archetype that transcends the internet. He’s a self-loathing ex-gifted kid who indulges in childish consumption rather than face the duties and uncertainties of adulthood. He thumbs his nose at traditional authority, and makes that bratty rebelliousness his whole personality. Redditism is not just an aesthetic or a collection of fandoms, it’s an ideology, one that has been taken up and instrumentalized by the global elite against everything good. It animates a death cult that wants you dead first. It’s the end of the line.

The Redditor is the apotheosis of the Non-Player Character. He’s unself-aware despite his self-consciousness. He’s stupid despite his determination to prove he’s a Smart Boy. And he puts the capital-C in cringe.

Every day, 24 million members are giving each other the worst possible advice.

It’s going to take years for AI to recover from being trained on Reddit.

DISCUSS ON SG

Report: Russia Captured British Officers

Hal Turner and others are reporting that Russian special forces operators have captured three British officers

Special forces of the Russian Federation have captured several NATO officers in Ukraine. This is the first real-life proof that NATO itself is actively waging war against Russia.

Lieutenant Colonel Richard Carroll, and Colonel Edward Blake, both active-duty officers of the British Army, along with as as-yet unidentified Agent of British MI-6 (Intelligence) were captured during a daring raid by Russian Special Forces, in the city of Ohakiv. Lt. Col. Carroll is detailed to the British Ministry of Defense.

The third individual taken in the raid is referred-to only as “A member of MI-6 Intelligence.”

A long-time Intelligence-Community colleague of mine from my years working with the FBI Joint Terrorism Task, Force (JTTF), whom I trust implicitly, told me Russian special forces disembarked from several ships and penetrated a command center of the Ukrainian armed forces. They captured British soldiers who coordinated the use of British missiles and drones against Russian forces and against civilian targets.

He went on to say the operation lasted about 15 minutes. Hours after the operation, diplomatic relations between London and Moscow deteriorated sharply. The British have been caught, red-handed, and the implications for Britain, and NATO as a whole, are now E X T R E M E L Y bad.

Representatives of the British Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked the Russian Ministry of Defense to return the British officers ‘lost’ in Ukraine. The official London version is: the arrested officers traveled to Ukraine as tourists and “accidentally” ended up in Ochakiv. The British had the gall to tell the Russians that the men “were interested in naval history and wanted to visit the coast where battles were fought during the Second World War.”

Clown World is going to clown. But either Clown World really wants Russia to attack the EU and the UK or NATO, NATO is getting careless about keeping its officers out of harm’s way, or the Russian advance has picked up the pace to the point that the NATO “military advisors” can’t retreat fast enough to avoid getting captured.

At this point, the only thing protecting the civilians of Great Britain and Europe is the restraint of the very man they’ve spent the last three years demonizing, Vladimir Putin. But there are only so many stupid provocations that even the most patient and intelligent man can accept.

DISCUSS ON SG