The price of pragmatism

It’s only now that Republicans begin to realize that they just might be a facing a problem?

For the past 18 months, ever since the 2006 elections, congressional Republicans have been like a hospital patient trying to convince visitors that he is not really all that sick: a bit under the weather; actually feel better than I sound; should be up and about any day; thanks for asking.

Suddenly — belatedly — all pretense is gone….

Combined with the 30 seats that the GOP lost in 2006, that would leave the party facing a 70-vote deficit against Democrats in the House — a state of powerlessness reminiscent of Republicans’ long wilderness years in the 1960s and ’70s.

This was all completely predictable. it was, in fact, predicted. Consider what I wrote about the turn to Arnold Schwarzenegger as a pragmatic Republican savior back in 2003: “Pragmatism in politics is self-defeating in the long run. It is a euphemism for the slow sacrifice of one’s principles. The constant substitution of “electable” moderates for principled conservatives is what repeatedly kills the Republican Party and prevents it from ever realizing even a small part of its platform when it is in power.”

I reminded everyone of this again in 2005, in a column entitled “The Coming Conservative Collapse”, which pointed out the inevitable result of the political pragmatism then championed by the likes of Hugh Hewitt and Powerline. I hope you will keep this track record in mind as the popular pundits of the so-called right encourage you to help them bury conservatives in even deeper beneath the weight of the electoral corpse that is the Republican Party this November.

It doesn’t surprise me that pundits are wrong from time to time. Everyone is, including me. What does surprise me, however, is when people continue to place their trust in those who are reliably and dependably wrong. Then, of course, I remind myself that most people are idiots and it all makes sense again.

UPDATE – Even the moderate Republicans are unhappy:

Every time I hear Senator McCain speak it pushes me a bit closer to the point that I think that I simply cannot vote for him. This coming from a person who voted for Ford and Dole. I listened to Rush at lunch today and it made me so disgusted with the Republicans that I had to turn it off before I had a stroke.

It will be interesting to see if Republican disgust survives the convention and the so-called conservative media’s shrieking about this being the “MOSTEST IMPORTANTEST ELECTION EVER!”


Comment update

CoComment’s Lec drops a line: “We just released fixes for the 0 comment issue and the truncated comment. Please tell me if you see any problem coming again on those issues. We are now developing the Preview and Citations. Both should be available next week.”

As you’ve probably noticed, I increased the size of the comment box, which appears to be sufficient for everyone but the would-be novelists. The comment frame option should also be coming soon, it’s already being tested and I’ve seen it in operation. But please be aware that we’ll probably go through an iterative process again on the precise form it takes.


When a rise is not a rise

When it’s a government statistic:

Consumer prices slowed in April despite the biggest jump in food costs in nearly two decades. But with oil near record levels, Americans should brace for more pain at the pump in coming months….

For April, energy prices were unchanged and gasoline prices even fell by 2 percent, a decline that would strike motorists as strange, given that they have been watching the price of gasoline rise relentlessly in recent weeks. However, since gasoline prices normally rise in April, the 5.6 percent increase in gasoline prices for the month was turned into a 2 percent drop after the government adjusted for normal seasonal variations — little comfort to people now paying pump prices that hit a new national record of $3.758 per gallon on Thursday, up nearly 40 cents in the past month.

Yes, you read it correctly, an observable 10.6 percent increase – the 5.6 percent figure is month-on-month and avoids the peaks and troughs – is reported as a 2 percent DECREASE. This is the reverse side of the “cut” in government spending that is not a decrease, but merely a reduction in the rate of increase. If you really believe that inflation is anywhere nearly as low as reported, you’re either blind, economically illiterate or stubbornly and willfully stupid. These “core inflation” games are part of the inflation-hiding techniques I discussed in an earlier podcast. And before anyone tries to argue that housing prices are falling, do keep in mind that they aren’t included in the CPI statistics. If they had been, we would have seen annual double-digit increases in the CPI until recently.

Now that we’ve established their willingness to blatantly lie, what else do you think they’re trying to deceive you about?

UPDATE – It’s not just here that wages are stagnant even with the significantly understated CPI:

Statistics Canada reported that, after adjustment for inflation, Canadian wage-earners are earning less than in 1980. For example, in British Columbia the median wage-earner earns 11.3% less than a quarter-century ago.

Ain’t working women and immigrants grand! Mark Steyn points out that the latter come with the additional feature of making the War on Poverty indefinite.


Electoral slaughterhouse

I’ve been predicting a serious Democratic landslide for some years now, it looks like the massacre might even exceed my expectations:

In a major blow to national Republicans, a Mississippi congressional seat that once voted for President Bush by a twenty-five point margin elected a Democrat on Tuesday. Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers beat out Republican candidate Greg Davis, the mayor of Southaven, by a 54%-46% margin, a spread that several Republican strategists on Capitol Hill characterized as a startling wake-up call for a party in dire straits.

What does this make, the fifth or sixth straight wake-up call for Republicans? And yet, they seem to think that banging the war drums and chanting “we are at war” is going to work if they just repeat it one more time. I’ve long felt that George W. Bush’s job was to run down the Republicans in order to hand the White House to Hillary Clinton, but between him and the anti-conservative Congress, they may have sentenced the Republican party to another 40 years in the minority.

This is the price of political pragmatism. This is the predictable result of what voting the lesser evil inevitably entailed. Was it worth it, o compromising conservatives? You got Bush, you got Schwarzenegger, you got the power you sold your principles for, was it really, truly worth the price you’re going to pay?

There is no reason to vote for a Republican in 2008. None. Let them suffer the consequences of their actions. Celebrate their well-deserved self-immolation. False friends are always more dangerous than enemies.


It’s not a message

The salient point eludes Jerry Pournelle:

I have a number of letters about McCain and why we ought to vote Libertarian and “Send a message.” I understand the argument.

The fact is that the Democrats will control Congress. If they also control the White House, we will have a series of legislative packages that will make the Great Society look like a libertarian government. In opposition the Republicans rediscover their principles; it’s power they haven’t been able to handle since Newt Gingrich was Speaker.

The country is in trouble. We have forgotten our founding principles, and we move inexorably toward a European style socialist state, with the only winners being an enormous bureaucracy. This will accelerate the economic decline.

The argument is to give the Democrats their head, and pick up the pieces after the inevitable crash. I think that overlooks the resilience of tax and tax, spend and spend, elect and elect regimes. We haven’t seen much in the way of reforms in Europe. The Democrats will create new bureaucracies that can never be dismantled: an example is the Department of Education. Reagan came into office determined to abolish it. Now it owns US education, and No Child Left Behind is entrenched. The Iron Law of Bureaucracy is inexorable.

Not voting for McCain isn’t about “sending a message”. Even if one accepts the notion that he is the lesser evil, it is supporting the “lesser evil” that has gotten the nation into this mess. It’s not going to get the nation out of it. It can’t, and nothing, in fact, is likely to extricate Americans from the morass in which they find themselves. The sooner people accept this, the sooner they can make intelligent decisions about how they are going to prepare for what comes next. Remember, the end of the halcyon days are not the end of the universe; people have survived every single fallen empire of the past and they’ll survive this one too. But you can’t fix what is irretrievably broken and I should be very, very interested to hear someone explain how electing John McCain would fix anything about the current situation, let alone everything.

That being said, I do agree with the spirit of Pournelle’s conclusion: “The post-Gingrich Republicans who invented “big government conservatism” have much to answer for.”

I’m not sure they invented anything, but they certainly do have much for which to answer.


The two sides of Camille Paglia

On the one hand, she can be quite perceptive:

I’m puzzled by the optimism of so many commentators and Democratic functionaries who are prophesying Hillary’s graceful withdrawal by mid-June. Is there anything in the Clintons’ tawdry history to support such a thesis? Why wouldn’t they play smiley-face rope-a-dope now and smash-mouth alley-and-ambush fisticuffs right to the bitter end — meaning the convention in August? It’s now or never for Ms. Hill. Even if Obama loses this fall, there’s no guarantee whatever that she would win the Democratic nomination in 2012. That hoss will have been around the rodeo way too many times.

And on the other, astoundingly obtuse:

Where Hillary divides and sows bitterness, Obama wants to unite and heal. It is a project that all Americans of good will should wish to succeed.

As Jonah Goldberg has tirelessly pointed out, there’s a synonym for “union”. It’s “fascism”. I’ve been reading the Sharpe novels lately, and it’s interesting to see how a desire to unite was the “progressive” vision of Napoleon Bonaparte. It was the vision of Benito Mussolini. It was the vision of Vladimir Lenin. It was the vision of Adolf Hitler. It is the vision of the bureaucrats in Brussels and it is the vision of Barrack Obama. The desire “to unite and heal” is nothing more than the desire to control and dictate. It is amazing how people of varying degrees of intelligence have been repeatedly falling for this old chestnut for more than 200 years. If I am wrong about the inevitability of the Lizard Queen, (and the West Virginia results indicate that I am not), there’s a very good chance that you’ll get the chance to see that I’m correct about the evil inherent in Obama’s vision.

UPDATE – As events unfold, however, I find myself less and less concerned about being wrong. It’s pretty clear that the big guns haven’t even started firing yet:

Obama: Israel is a ‘constant sore’

Obama, under fire for attracting praise and support for his presidential run from the terrorist group Hamas, spoke to Atlantic Monthly at length about his views of the Middle East. Asked if he thought Israel represented a drag on America’s reputation overseas, Obama said: “No, no, no. But what I think is that this constant wound, that this constant sore, does infect all of our foreign policy.


Mailvox: C’e l’ho duro

The Baseball Savant opts for jujitsu over aikido:

I’ve been thinking a lot about martial arts training and did some shopping around. I think I’m going the jujitsu route. After reading the advice you gave on your blog back on December 20, 2006, I found a school pretty close to where I am. With med school I sort of needed it to be convenient. Anyway, I went and there were no women and the instructors were pretty cool and said they encourage contact fighting.

I’m not a real big guy at 5’10″/200lbs. However, I can incline bench 390lbs and squat 550lbs. I haven’t done regular bench in awhile. I thought the ground fighting you talked of sounded good because I’m not that big and long but I’m pretty strong and athletic and I thought maybe being in a martial art where reach would matter would hurt me a bit. You had talked of akido being a good self defense martial art, but can jujitsu be that too? With all the locks and chokes and strangles, it sounds like you can do some serious damage to the skeletal system.

Jujitsu is a great martial art for which I have a great deal of respect. One of our most dangerous black belts, who did pretty well in one MMO tournament, was also a jujitsu brown belt. That being said, I would tend to favor aikido because I generally prefer hard styles to soft styles. Hard styles tend to favor those with a lot of natural strength and provide for more aggressive techniques that I find to be a little bit safer if weapons happen to enter the picture. I once saw a guy who had a purse snatcher in headlock get knifed in the throat – in fact, that incident was the one that inspired Big Chilly and I to start our martial arts training – and I prefer to incapacitate quickly and without all the physical contact. In two out of the three incidents wherein I actually had to act, I didn’t even use a proper strike per se, I simply made use of the closest wall or floor. A brick wall is a lot harder than your fist and it hurts a lot less to hit someone hard with it.

Now, I was trained in a blended style that combined two hard styles, Shorin Ryu and Kali, with the soft style of Wing Chun kung fu. The latter was quite useful with some of the blocks and locks, but I personally dislike fighting at grappling range since it negates my usual speed advantage. Since BS has enough strength and size that most guys with any sense are going to be reluctant to close with him, I’m wondering if he might have a need for some offensive techniques that he’s less likely to learn in a soft style. If you’ve got plenty of your own strength, then why rely on a strategy that almost requires waiting for the other guy to throw his at you? But the truth is that any good instructor is going to teach you useful techniques from other styles regardless of his own style, and the more adept you are at one style the easier you’ll pick up the tricks of the others.

(Tangential aside: my favorite non-fight was when the Dragon we called Terminator nearly got into it with this obnoxious guy at my favorite night club. After a few words were exchanged, they both dropped into what were quite obviously the combat stance of an experienced fighter… and their eyes widened in mutual recognition of this. They just stared at each other for a moment, then Terminator said “so, do you want to match styles or what?” The other guy, who may have been obnoxious, but was clearly no dummy, shook his head and said “not really”. Terminator nodded and stepped, and the rest of us exhaled. I kind of wanted to see how it turned out, to be honest, but it could have also been really ugly and he was a pretty good friend of mine.)

One of the best things that my sensei incorporated into our training was regularly bringing in fighters from other styles on sparring night. So, we learned to keep boxers outside with defensive sidekicks while crashing our bodies into Tae Kwon Do kickers to knock them off balance before they could bring their legs up. A one-legged Wall of Bone topples over pretty easily if you just slam right into it. It’s one thing to know that you should work to your opponent’s weakness, its another thing to be forced to deal with very different strengths and weaknesses on a regular basis. I always had the worst time with the real kickboxers, the Muay Thai guys with the tattooed backs. They’d give you centerline and take a hard shot, then just hammer you from both sides. That open center was just too tempting to resist and I wasn’t sure what else you were supposed to do anyhow. I mean, the window’s open, that’s what you want, right? I don’t think I ever had the better of a single sparring round with any of them.

The American kickboxers, on the other hand, were usually a joke. They were basically like Tae Kwon Do guys who couldn’t use their hands very well, but couldn’t kick effectively either. You’d just wait until they raised their front foot for that little flick kick at your front calf and then stick them with a skipping sidekick. That would knock them off balance and their hands would flail about and open up their head, so you step in with hands, bang, bang, bang… no problem.

Anyhow, any martial art is much, much better than none, and jujitsu is definitely more useful than most because so many fights end up going to ground one way or another. Watch out for the wrestlers, though. Those squirmy bastards can be very tricky if you don’t lock up their neck at the start.


Brooks, Buddhism, and Harris

David Brooks considers some developments in the neurosciences:

In their arguments with Christopher Hitchens and Richard Dawkins, the faithful have been defending the existence of God. That was the easy debate. The real challenge is going to come from people who feel the existence of the sacred, but who think that particular religions are just cultural artifacts built on top of universal human traits. It’s going to come from scientists whose beliefs overlap a bit with Buddhism.

In unexpected ways, science and mysticism are joining hands and reinforcing each other. That’s bound to lead to new movements that emphasize self-transcendence but put little stock in divine law or revelation.

Sounds a lot like where Sam Harris appears to be headed. It’s interesting that Brooks has spotted this since he never struck me as one interested in such things. But it’s precisely why I described Jon Haidt and his Enlightenment 2.0 as being potentially more dangerous to humanity in the long term than the militant atheists. I am not optimistic that those inspired by the neuroscientific possibilities will be able to resist the inevitable urge to meddle, modify and otherwise go about the age-old, tragic process of attempting to create yet another New Man.


Statistical trivia

Visitors: 4 million
Page Views: 5 million
TIA Downloads: 6,574
Downloads of TIA yesterday: 298

That’s not bad at all when you consider that the main reason I started the blog was to get out of answering the same emails over and over again. There are bigger blogs and there are better blogs, but I like this one just fine. Speaking of which, if you want a link on the Voxologisti, please let me know in the comments here. Also, I’m thinking of putting together a Best Of page, so if you happen to have a favorite quote of mine from either the blog, the columns, or the books, let me know what it is.


Countdown to a hit

By the time the Clinton Machine is finished, there won’t be any more talk about President Hussein. If he’s lucky, the only question will be to which nation he will accept exile. Can you even imagine this article being permitted to appear in the New York Times six months ago?

As the son of the Muslim father, Senator Obama was born a Muslim under Muslim law as it is universally understood. It makes no difference that, as Senator Obama has written, his father said he renounced his religion. Likewise, under Muslim law based on the Koran his mother’s Christian background is irrelevant.

It looks rather like the Lizard Queen nailed down the NYT with her tough talk on obliterating Iran.