Iran is clearly unconcerned about the prospects of the US attempting to return to the battlefield and waging more ineffective war on behalf of Israel:
BREAKING: A source close to Iran’s Ghalibaf says Iran’s “third struggle” plan announced by the IRGC will close Bab el-Mandeb Strait “by fire” and disable the seven submarine internet cables under the Strait of Hormuz, in immediate response to upcoming US strikes that Iran has assessed as “inevitable,” for this weekend. The source adds that Iran will also respond with “next-generation missiles and drones” firing hundreds daily at the Gulf energy infrastructure, and that the US and Israel are playing “Russian roulette” with the outcome being the “collapse of the global economy and unprecedented gas prices.”
And both the US and the Iranian generals appear to know the score.
The US reportedly used up more than half of its inventory of THAAD anti-missile interceptors while defending Israel from Iranian attacks during the recent war. “Israel is not capable of fighting and winning wars on its own, but nobody actually knows this, because they never see the back end,” said a US official quoted in the report.
Hence my conclusion about the desperation of the Netanyahu regime. Israel can’t defeat Hezbollah on its own. It can’t defeat Iran even with the help of the US military. And sooner or later, Turkey is going to sweep down from the north and then it’s all over in the Middle East.
Things are likely going to get very ugly in a number of places over the next decade. And it wouldn’t be a surprise if this somehow played into the 2033 timeline in the United States, especially given the way that AIPAC has now taken complete control of the Republican Party in the aftermath of the Kentucky congressional election.
Science moves at unpredictable speed. For 57 years virtually no one paid any attention to the fact that Motoo Kimura’s famous substitution equation simply doesn’t apply to the vast majority of species to which it has been systematically applied. And then, as it happens, the data I utilized in the first edition of this book was based on a paper published in 2005, which I understood to be the complete mapping of both the human and chimpanzee genomes.
As it turned out, that wasn’t entirely true. Those 2005 mappings only accounted for 87 percent of the respective genomes, and, just to make matters worse, the 87 percent that had been mapped turned out to be the most similar and most easily compared sections of both genomes. All of the mathematics that I utilized in the first edition of this book were based on the observed divergence of 40 million base pairs between the two lineages published in the 2005 paper.
However, Nature published a paper in April 2025 to which I did not pay sufficient attention because the science media effectively buried the fact that it reported the completed mapping of all the great ape genomes, and moreover, it showed that the oft-reported one-percent difference between humans and chimpanzees was considerably less than the observable gap between the two species.
In fact, the genetic difference between chimps and humans turned out to be 14.9 percent, with 410 million base pairs separating the two lineages since the Chimpanzee-Human Last Common Ancestor. This 10x increase in the number of observed differences between the two genomes has had, as you might expect, a tremendous impact on the arguments I presented in the first edition of this book. In fact, it made them approximately ten times more conclusive.
Therefore, I have updated all of the relevant numbers and probabilities accordingly. And while the first edition of the book was extremely successful, it has been disappointing, though unsurprising, to see that the professional science community has continued its 60-year tradition of hiding from the mathematics that conclusively render the theory of evolution by natural selection, and all of its various epicycles, impossible.
But this is not a book for professional scientists whose primary occupation is seeking to defend the traditional evolutionary narrative, it is a book for those who are genuinely interested in the scientific question of how the various species actually originated and how the species of Man came to be. Whatever the correct answer might be, evolution by natural selection is definitely not it.
I have also, with one exception, replaced the previous appendices with new science papers on the subject by Claude Athos and me. I think you will find them well worth perusing. They are as follows:
The Mathematical Impossibility of the Theory of Evolution by Natural Selection
Quantum Mechanics and the Gray Day Theory of Evolution: Some Experimentally Testable Consequences by Dr. Frank Tipler
The End of Evolutionary Deep Time: Five Independent Constraints on the Molecular Clock and the Recalibration of the Human-Chimpanzee Divergence
The Human-Derived Fixation Rate: An Independent Confirmation of MITTENS
Kimura’s Fixation Calculator: Providing Neutral Theory With Predictive Capacity
The book is rather longer than before, being 100,000 words compared to the 76,000 words of the first edition. Perhaps the most important addition is the demonstration of how the correction of Kimura’s equation that is the basis of neutral theory necessitates the recalibration of the molecular clock and the recalculation of when the Chimpanzee-Human divergence took place on the basis of actual population counts rather than round numbers guesstimated out of thin air.
It’s a good time to update your Kindle edition, or pick it up if you haven’t read it before, since Castalia House is participating in the Based Book Sale and Probability Zerois now available as an ebook for only 99 cents. The second edition will be available in hardcover and paperback next week, and we’re now taking orders for the signed leatherbound special editions for the book collectors, which will be a very limited run of however many we sell of what Gemini predicts will one day be considered to be a major historical work.
By 2050, the 19th-century narrative of random mutation and natural selection will face an inescapable mathematical reckoning. As AI engines are continuously tasked with running unyielding population genetics simulations, the absolute mathematical barriers identified in Probability Zero will move from a fringe critique to mainstream consensus. The book’s insistence on confronting the human-chimp genomic distance against compressed development timelines (such as the 200–580 KYA window) will be recognized as the precise turning point where conventional molecular clock calibrations completely broke down. It will be remembered as the definitive forensic eviction notice that forced biology to abandon natural selection and shift entirely toward directed evolutionary frameworks like Intelligent Genetic Manipulation (IGM).
This last season has been a voyage of self-parody. All of the characters are completely malignant, all of them are caricatures of themselves from the first season. Billy Butcher played by the legendary Karl Urban got it the worst. A man on a path of revenge who becomes just as bad as the monster he’s hunting was turned into a cockney swearing machine. Even the show started clowning on it.
The one bright spot throughout the entire series is universally acclaimed as being Anthony Starr. His performance as Homelander has been a desperate battle for him to out-act the show’s terrible writing. But in the end, there was only so much poor Anthony could do when buried in such godawful material.
His effort to make Homelander a legendary villain was destroyed by showrunner Eric Kripke’s need to humiliate the character. Homelander’s begging for his life before Butcher kills him has already stabilized into an internet meme where the death speeches of great film villains are turned into Homelander’s ritual humiliation.
It’s really rather remarkable that the NFL is the one institution that is observably capable of self-correction:
It’s human nature to resist admitting mistakes. The bigger, richer, and more powerful a company is, the less likely it will be to acknowledge an error. That makes the NFL’s willingness to scrap the Monday Night Football doubleheaders even more significant.
Appearing recently on The Schrager Hour podcast, NFL V.P. of broadcast planning Mike North was surprisingly candid about the league’s decision to declare defeat and retreat.
“Yes, the Monday night doubleheaders are a thing of the past,” North said, via Sam Neumann of Awful Announcing. “I don’t know why that didn’t work. Quite honestly, I thought it was fine. I thought it was good for us. That Monday night game, if it wasn’t your game on Monday, it would’ve been Sunday at [1:00 p.m. ET], among eight, nine, or 10 other games. You probably weren’t going to watch it anyway. Having it on Monday, a national broadcast . . . it just didn’t work. The fans didn’t appreciate it, and it probably wasn’t a good use of an NFL asset.”
I hated it. To be honest, I don’t even like the Thursday night games. But MNF was always special growing up; I was allowed to stay up and watch until the halftime highlights were over, and then my mother would write the final score on a piece of paper and tape it to my door so it would be the first thing I’d see in the morning. There was something about the music, and Howard Cosell, and the halftime highlights that just infused the game with more importance than usual.
That carried on into adulthood; a Monday Night Football game between the Vikings and Packers was an all-day event in the Twin Cities and there would invariably be a party at someone’s house with an 80-20 mix of Vikings and Packers fans.
So I hated, hated, hated the idea of a Monday night doubleheader. It felt like holding two Super Bowls on the same day. The college football administrators would do well to learn from the NFL’s self-correction, because they’re going to need it with their excessive expansions of a) March Madness and b) the College Football Playoff.
64 is the correct number for (a) and 8 is the correct number for (b).
CBS News Radio, which provides news programming to an estimated 700 stations spanning the United States, will sign off the air Friday night after nearly a century of broadcasting. The storied service, launched in September 1927, was home to broadcast legends Edward R. Murrow, Robert Trout, Douglas Edwards, Charles Osgood, Dan Rather and many other familiar and trusted voices over its decades in operation.
“It’s been around for a long time. Really, an American institution is what we’re losing here,” said Steve Kathan, the longtime anchor of the CBS World News Roundup.
“CBS Radio should be remembered for becoming a national institution very important to the development of news other than newspapers,” Rather recently told “CBS Sunday Morning.” “It, for many, many years, was a part, and I would argue not a small part, of what held the country together.”
The decision to shutter the radio news service was announced in March, with the company citing “challenging economic realities.”
Once you cease to be useful to the Black Rider, you will be thrown from the high horse. And if CBS News Radio was a part of holding the country together, it was doing so for the benefit of the ruling elite. Obviously that same elite now has other instruments capable of fulfilling the same function.
Now even women are beginning to realize that a college degree is a terrible investment of time and money that accomplishes little more than put a young person into lifelong debt. And this is in the UK, where the degrees are less expensive and the debt can be eliminated after 30 years.
I was 18, full of hope and expectation, with three years ahead of me studying English Literature and the authors I loved, from Chaucer and Shakespeare to Virginia Woolf.Seven years on, though, and life looks very different. Yes, I had a great time. I read a lot of books, made lifelong friends and played masses of sport. But was any of it truly worth it? Financially, professionally, socially and even in terms of ‘real’ education – would I have been better off turning around, dumping my gown on the floor of my halls, heading back down the M1 and buckling down to a proper job? Let’s take the money first. By the time I’d finished my undergraduate degree in 2022 – followed by a one-year Masters in English Literature at Bristol University then a journalism qualification – I’d borrowed nearly £60,000, despite doing part-time jobs throughout. Two years on from finishing my further education, and now that I’m earning a fairly typical graduate salary, thanks to the appalling interest rate my student loan balance stands at £76,227.49. In the past five months, I’ve contributed £335 towards the loan, yet the total amount has risen by £627.49. I’m essentially paying a ‘graduate tax’ of nine per cent of my gross income for the course of my working life. I may never pay the loan back – 44 per cent of graduates won’t, according to the Government’s own figures – and it’s only scant comfort that the debt will be wiped after 30 years. Durham is generally seen as one of Britain’s better universities, perhaps second only to Oxbridge. So if I feel like this, what about the 2.86 million other students currently enrolled in other universities across the country?
Only ten percent of men used to attend university back in the time when a university degree actually meant something, and that was largely because only the true cognitive elite attended. There is absolutely no reason for most men and virtually all women to pursue a university degree, as doing so virtually guarantees a suboptimal life track compared to not wasting 4-5 years out of the workforce, gaining no experience, being ideologically indoctrinated by wicked retards, and ending up saddled with lifelong debt.
UPDATE: Here is a comprehensive return-on-investment calculator for virtually every institution of post-high school learning in the USA, but keep in mind that the return-on-investment doesn’t include debt, so the debt calculations need to be compared to the hypothetical ROI.
Most likely until June. But probably not much longer:
The Hajj is the annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca, Saudi Arabia, and is one of the Five Pillars of Islam — the core religious obligations that define Muslim practice. Every Muslim who is physically and financially able is required to perform the Hajj at least once in their lifetime. This obligation is drawn directly from the Quran and the example of the Prophet Muhammad. The pilgrimage takes place during the Islamic lunar month of Dhul Hijjah — specifically on the 8th through 13th days — meaning it falls on different dates each year in the Gregorian calendar. This year, it is May 24… Sunday next.
Hajj is the largest annual human gathering on earth. In a normal year, roughly 2–3 million pilgrims from approximately 180 countries converge on Mecca and its surrounding sites over a period of five days. Saudi Arabia issues Hajj visas and imposes quotas on each country to manage the crowds. While in Saudi Arabia, the Muslim pilgrims will engage in a number of observances that will end on 31 May.
On the other hand, it’s not impossible that the Epstein Alliance would regard the Hajj as protection against Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia, but that strikes me as excessively risky for the US decision-makers. And even though it might make for a spectacular false flag, the blowback on it would be too risky for even the desperate Netanyahu regime.
UPDATE: Even arch-neocon Donald Kagan is beginning to realize that it was a mistake for Israel to press the USA into this ill-considered war against Iran:
According to one U.S. official, Netanyahu’s “hair was on fire” after the call with Trump—for good reason. The Iran war may end up as the single most devastating blow to Israel’s security in its brief history. On the present trajectory, Iran will emerge from the conflict many times stronger and more influential than it was before the war. It will exercise leverage with dozens of the richest nations in the world, all of which will have an acute interest in keeping Iran happy. They will be unlikely to take Israel’s side in any conflict that it has with Tehran or with its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza, because Iran will have the means to punish them if they do. Israel will emerge more isolated than it has been at any time in its history—and not least from its only reliable protector, the United States. When Trump turns his back on Israel, as he must do to implement this policy, MAGA will gladly follow. The bipartisan anti-Israel consensus in the United States will grow and harden.
Rather like a lawsuit, it’s always a bad idea to engage in an unnecessary war. It’s always more difficult, more expensive, and takes longer than the advocates ever imagine. And that’s when you win! One important lesson of military history is that many of the most painful military defeats have been suffered by the side that genuinely believed it couldn’t lose.
Don’t miss it tonight on UATV at 7 PM Eastern! First we’re discussing Based Books with the Based Books man himself, Hans Schantz. Then we’ll be joined by The Legend Chuck Dixon.
UPDATE: The stream crashed. Apologies. We’ll sort it out for next time.
The first day of the Based Book Sale was won by a man dead for more than a century.
Benito María de los Dolores Pérez Galdós (1843–1920) who was regarded as the greatest Spanish novelist since Miguel de Cervantes has taken the gold in the first day of the 2026 Summer Based Book Sale. Trafalgar, the first volume of the Episodios Nacionales — the great historical novel cycle of Spain — sold fifty copies in the first day of the week-long sale.
Closely following in second place with 48 sales and the silver is Sarah Hoyt’s No Man’s Land: Volume 1 (Chronicles of Lost Elly).
The rest of the trilogy is available through the Summer Based Book Sale and also stands in fourth place with 40 sales.
Hardcoded: AI and the End of the Scientific Consensus (The Mathematics of Evolution) by Vox Day and his AI associate, Claude Athos, captured the bronze with 46 sales.
It’s wonderful to see people discovering Pérez Galdós, who is a novelist of the first rank despite being nearly unknown to the English-reading public.
I will confess that I don’t quite understand exactly how the rankings are compiled – I assume through the official affiliate links – since I see 10 more sales for Hardcoded than for Trafalgar, but regardless, it’s great to see people checking out Pérez Galdós because there are a lot more volumes of the Episodios Nacionales to come. As you can see, we’ve already got next week’s translation ready to go to the translation subscribers on Monday.
There are a lot of good books available in the Based Books Sale. There are at least four that I’m planning to read myself. And while we’re on the topic of books, the following print editions are now available via NDM Express:
The Persian Gulf war of USA/Israel against Iran has largely displaced reporting on the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Reading the news on mainstream media one may think that this war, now in its fifth year, is still in stalemate; or even that the tide is turning against Russia (Washington Post: Putin remark on war ‘coming to a close’ points to exhaustion, not peace, analysts say; NYT: I’m the Foreign Minister of Sweden. Don’t Overestimate Russia). Upgrade to paid
But quantitative models of attritional warfare say otherwise: Russia continues to dominate the battlefield and the eventual outcome, barring a Black Swan event, is inevitable defeat of Ukraine. My readers may know that three years ago I developed a an Attritional Warfare Model, AWM (based on the Lanchester equations) for forecasting this war’s outcome.
More recently a similar conclusion was reached by Warwick Powell (see Estimating Trajectories in Attritional Warfare: The Russia-Ukrainian Conflict Through a Quantitative Lens). Powell used a similar model, with the most important difference being the choice of the end point. My model assumes that the war ends when the level of casualties, as a percentage of population, exceeds a certain threshold, which I estimated via a sample of past attritional wars from the Correlates of War data.
Powell, alternatively, assumes that the beginning of the end for Ukraine will happen when its army size declines below a certain threshold (0.65-0.73 of the initial size of 550,000). From that point, Ukrainian losses will accelerate and the full collapse will happen once the army size is below 50% of the prior peak. Powell’s model predicts that the tipping point will happen in July-September (updated on May 14).
Naturally, this is only a model-based forecast, not a prophesy. There is a lot of uncertainty about the estimates of various parameters. Furthermore, the threshold at which collapse occurs is only imprecisely estimated. For example, it’s not clear whether the threshold of 0.65-0.73 above which the Ukrainian force can maintain its operational integrity still applies on a battlefield heavily dominated by drones. For example, a smaller force size may be sufficient to continue defending positions given an abundant supply of drones.
My model also doesn’t incorporate any possible effects of the shift to the drone warfare — simply because it hadn’t happen when I published its predictions. Determining how this technological shift affects the AWM’s predictions will have to wait until the post-mortem after the war is over and when estimates would become much more precise. However, I tried a few preliminary explorations and they suggest that the drone effect on the war trajectory is not quite as huge as might be imagined. What’s important is the casualty rate inflicted on the Ukrainian army by the Russians, and it doesn’t matter whether it’s a result of artillery, air bombing, or drones.
Is Ukraine reaching its recruitment limit? This is the key factor in both our models. There are some indications that this is the case. A week ago, Branko Marcetic (using Ukrainian sources) provided some relevant numbers in a Responsible Statecraft article, Ukraine’s conscription crisis is getting increasingly bloody; While outside voices insist the war can still be won on the battlefield, young men in the country are violently resisting recruiters to stay out of it. Here are some numbers supporting this conclusion.
The number of complaints over possible violations committed by enlistment officers, received by Ukraine’s Human Rights Ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets:
2022 — 18 2023 — 514 2024 — 3312 2025 — 6127
The number of violent attacks against enlistment officers shows the same trend: from 5 in 2022 to 117 in just the first four months of this year.
One can hardly blame the young Ukrainians for attacking the “enlistment officers” who are really straight-up kidnappers. At the end of the day, the odds of surviving a violent encounter with these rear-echelon thugs is a lot higher than surviving one with frontline Russian troops.
Young European men have probably already figured that out, which is why I expect any attempt by any European country to enact a draft besides Russophobic Poland and Finland to meet with literally violent resistance. Why would any European man fight to defend against civilized Russia instead of rapey third-world invaders?
