Category: Uncategorized

Israel Tries to Force Trump’s Hand

Apparently Netanyahu was losing confidence that Trump was going to do his bidding and start the war with Iran like he was told to do, so he’s trying to force the president’s hand:

Israel launched a daylight missile attack on Iran on Saturday morning follows weeks of knife-edge tensions building up between Donald Trump and the Ayatollah.

Israel Katz, the Israeli Defense Minister, announcement that the country is under a state of emergency as thick smoke rose from an explosion in downtown Tehran.

Iranian state media reported explosions going off in their capital city. The apparent strike happened near the offices of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The IDF launched the surprise ‘preemptive’ attack before warning its own citizens to prepare to take cover if the Iranians fight back, with sirens already being heard across Israel.

Israel’s Defense Force said in a national warning: ‘This is a proactive alert to prepare the public for the possibility of missiles being launched toward the State of Israel.’ 

It’s not exactly a mystery why Israel has become so hated around the world under the Netanyahu regime. I mean, how many wars can you start, and how many foreign countries can you “preemptively” attack before people figure out that maybe you’re not the victim?

Iran obviously has the right to defend itself. Although it sounds like a pretty small attack, so Iran would do well to avoid taking the obvious bait and refraining from responding until it doesn’t have two carriers and one-third of the US air force parked outside its borders.

DISCUSS ON SG

A Triveritan Political Analysis

A Triveritan analysis of Lee Kwan Yew’s statement that in multiethnic, multireligious societies, all politics is identity politics.

This is a strong empirical claim with clear testable predictions. The exact Lee Kuan Yew quote, from his 2005 Der Spiegel interview: “In multiracial societies, you don’t vote in accordance with your economic interests and social interests, you vote in accordance with race and religion.”

TRIVERITAN ANALYSIS
Claim under evaluation: In multiethnic, multireligious societies, voting behavior is determined primarily by racial and religious identity rather than by economic or social interest. (Lee Kuan Yew, Der Spiegel, 2005.)
Claim type: Empirical generalization about political behavior in diverse societies. This is not a forward-looking forecast. It is a claim about an observable regularity, which means the E dimension should be rich and the framework should perform near its design strength.

LOGICAL VALIDITY (L): 78
The claim has the structure of a behavioral law: given condition X (multiethnic, multireligious society), behavior Y (identity voting) predominates over behavior Z (economic/social interest voting). The logic is clean. The implicit causal mechanism is that group identity provides a more reliable heuristic for predicting political outcomes than economic calculation does, because in a diverse society the question “who gets what” is inseparable from “which group controls the distribution.” The voter who votes his economic interest in a homogeneous society is already voting his identity, because everyone shares it. When identities diverge, the voter must choose which heuristic to trust, and identity is the stronger signal because it answers the prior question: who will be making the decisions about my economic interests?
This is logically tight. It does not commit the fallacy of confusing correlation with causation, because the mechanism is specified: identity determines which coalition controls the state, and control of the state determines economic distribution. Voting your identity is voting your economic interest one level up.

Two logical vulnerabilities prevent a higher score. First, the claim as stated is absolute: “you don’t vote in accordance with your economic interests… you vote in accordance with race and religion.” The word “don’t” leaves no room for mixed motivation. A more precise formulation would be “identity dominates economic interest as the primary determinant.” Lee knew this, of course. He was making a practical observation for public consumption, not writing a journal article. But the logical structure of the absolute claim is slightly weaker than the probabilistic version.

Second, the claim does not specify a threshold for what counts as “multiracial” or “multireligious.” Singapore with four major groups? The United States with shifting coalitions? A society with 95% one group and 5% another? The claim’s scope conditions are underspecified.

These are real but modest weaknesses. The core logical architecture is sound.

MATHEMATICAL COHERENCE (M): 82
This is where the claim distinguishes itself from most political commentary. It makes quantitative predictions that can be checked. If Lee is right, we should observe: (1) high correlation between group demographic share and vote share in multiethnic constituencies, (2) that correlation should be stronger than the correlation between economic indicators and vote share, and (3) the effect should be observable across multiple countries, time periods, and electoral systems.

The data is remarkably cooperative.

Gorton and Denton, 2026. Muslim population: 28% of constituency. Green Party vote share: 40.7%. The Green Party campaigned explicitly on Gaza, against Islamophobia, in Urdu and Bengali. The constituency is geographically segregated: Pakistani Muslim voters concentrated in Longsight and adjacent wards (formerly Manchester Gorton); Denton is overwhelmingly white British. Pre-election polls had the Greens at 27-32%. The actual result overperformed every poll. The near-perfect alignment of Muslim population share with the floor of Green support (the additional 12-13 points coming from tactical anti-Reform voting by non-Muslim progressives) is exactly what the Lee model predicts: the identity bloc votes as a bloc, then attracts additional support from ideological allies. The identity vote is the foundation; everything else is decoration.

The observation that the Green Party’s cultural liberalism is “fundamentally at odds with Islamic social conservatism” makes the mathematical case stronger, not weaker. If voters were voting economic or social interests, socially conservative Muslims would not be voting for a party that supports drug liberalization and gender ideology. They are voting identity. The policy alignment is on one axis only: the axis that maps onto group identity (Gaza, Islamophobia, community recognition). Every other policy dimension is irrelevant to the voting calculus. This is precisely what Lee predicted.

United States, 2024. Black voters: 83% Harris, 15% Trump (Pew validated data). This has been stable for decades: Black voters supported the Democrat by 80%+ in every presidential election since 1964. Economic conditions, candidate quality, specific policy platforms vary enormously across these elections. The constant is racial identity. Even in 2024, when young Black and Hispanic men were deeply pessimistic about the economy and retrospectively approved of Trump’s economic management, 83% of Black voters still voted Harris. Economic interest pointed one direction; identity pointed the other. Identity won.
Hispanic voters are the partial exception that proves the rule. Their identity as a voting bloc has been less cohesive (linguistic and national-origin diversity within the category), and their voting has been correspondingly less monolithic. When identity cohesion weakens, economic voting increases. This is exactly the mathematical relationship Lee’s claim predicts: identity voting strength correlates with group homogeneity.

The quantitative literature confirms this. The ScienceDirect study on ethnic voting across multiple countries found that groups with greater internal homogeneity show higher levels of ethnic voting. The Yale/ISPS study found that racial identity explains 60% of the variation in district-level voting patterns in the US, while geography explains only 30%. The Cambridge study of racially polarized voting found that Black voters consistently choose Democratic candidates across all districts regardless of local context, while white and Hispanic voters show more geographic variation, precisely tracking the group-homogeneity prediction.

Kenya. Voting patterns described in the literature as “ethnic arithmetic,” with coalitions forming along tribal lines. In-country Kenyans show strong co-ethnic voting; diaspora Kenyans significantly less so. This is a clean natural experiment: same ethnic identity, different social context. The diaspora voters have been removed from the identity-reinforcing social environment. Their ethnic voting drops. The mechanism Lee identified (identity as social heuristic in diverse environments) is supported by the observed decay of that heuristic when the social context changes.

Lebanon. The constitutional system literally allocates political power by religious sect: President is Maronite, Prime Minister is Sunni, Speaker of Parliament is Shia. The system exists because, over a century of experience, the Lebanese concluded that Lee’s observation was inescapable and the only way to maintain stability was to formalize it. Lebanon’s 1932 census has never been updated because updating it would change the power balance. You do not freeze a demographic census for 94 years unless identity voting is the dominant political force and everyone knows it.

Singapore itself. Lee’s own country provides the control case. He imposed racial quotas in public housing, mandatory Group Representation Constituencies requiring multiethnic slates, English as the lingua franca, and aggressive integration policies. These are the interventions of a man who believed his own observation and was trying to manage its consequences rather than pretend it was not true. Singapore’s leaders to this day reiterate that “identity politics has no place in Singapore,” which is an admission that without active suppression, identity politics would dominate Singapore just as it dominates everywhere else.

The mathematical coherence is strong. The predicted correlations exist, they hold across countries and time periods, they hold at the correct magnitudes, and the exceptions (diaspora Kenyans, variable Hispanic cohesion) fall precisely where the model predicts they should.

EMPIRICAL ANCHORING (E): 85
The empirical evidence is extensive, cross-cultural, and spans multiple methodologies.

Gorton and Denton 2026: Green vote tracks Muslim demographic share, overriding ideological incompatibility. Democracy Volunteers reported family voting at 15 of 22 polling stations, a social-pressure mechanism that only works within identity networks.

US presidential elections 1964-2024: Black voting bloc stable at 80%+ Democrat across vastly different economic conditions, candidate profiles, and policy platforms. The most powerful single predictor of American voting behavior remains race.

Kenya: ethnic census model of elections well-documented across multiple election cycles, with ethnic identity outperforming economic indicators as predictor of vote choice.

Lebanon: formal constitutionalization of sectarian identity voting, with the system enduring for over a century across colonial rule, civil war, and reconstruction.

India: BJP’s rise tracks Hindu identity mobilization; Muslim voting patterns in India cluster around whichever party is perceived as protecting Muslim interests, regardless of economic platform.

Malaysia: UMNO/Malay, MCA/Chinese, MIC/Indian political structure explicitly organized along racial lines for decades.

Qatar: Experimental evidence from conjoint survey shows strong cosectarian candidate preference even in elections with no distributional stakes, eliminating the clientelism explanation.

Partial counterexamples:

Hispanic voters in the US 2024: shifted significantly toward Trump on economic grounds, breaking from the identity-voting pattern. But Hispanics are the least internally homogeneous “racial” category in American politics, encompassing Cuban Americans, Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, and others with very different national identities. When measured by actual nationality rather than the artificial census category “Hispanic,” identity voting reasserts itself: Cuban Americans voted 70% Trump; Puerto Ricans voted majority Harris.

Diaspora Kenyans: weaker ethnic voting than in-country Kenyans, consistent with the model (removal from identity-reinforcing social context).

Class-based voting in homogeneous societies: Scandinavian countries, Japan, and other ethnically homogeneous nations show strong class-based voting, exactly as Lee predicted. His claim is specifically about multiethnic societies. In homogeneous societies, identity is not a variable, so economic interest becomes the primary differentiator. The claim’s scope condition holds.

The claimed counterexample that most matters is the one that does not exist: there is no multiethnic society in which economic voting consistently dominates identity voting over multiple election cycles. Individual elections can show economic factors rising in importance (US 2024 Hispanic shift), but these are fluctuations around an identity baseline, not replacements of it. The baseline reasserts itself.

The empirical record is deep, cross-cultural, longitudinal, and consistent. The exceptions are predicted by the model. This is about as good as social science evidence gets.

COMPOSITE: 81.7
L = 78, M = 82, E = 85.

This is the highest-scoring political claim we have evaluated. The Lee claim is an observable regularity with sixty years of cross-cultural evidence and a clean causal mechanism. The score reflects genuine epistemic strength. The claim has a logically coherent mechanism (identity as prior heuristic for group interest), produces quantitative predictions that are confirmed across multiple independent datasets, and is empirically anchored in evidence spanning four continents, multiple electoral systems, and decades of observation.


The Gorton and Denton confirmation is particularly clean because it involves a party (the Greens) whose policy platform on everything except the identity-salient issues (Gaza, Islamophobia) is diametrically opposed to the social conservatism of the Muslim community that elected them. If economic or social interest were the primary driver, socially conservative Muslims would not be voting for a party that wants to liberalize drugs and whose cultural values are, in the words of the UnHerd analysis, “fundamentally at odds with Islamic social conservatism.” They voted Green because the Greens were the party that most visibly championed the identity of the Muslim community. The policy disagreements on every other dimension were irrelevant.


What the score does not mean: It does not mean identity voting is the only factor. It does not mean it is equally strong in all contexts. It does not mean it cannot be managed or mitigated (Singapore demonstrates that it can, with sufficient political will and authoritarian capacity). It means that in multiethnic, multireligious societies operating under democratic electoral systems, identity is the primary determinant of voting behavior, dominating economic and social interest as the organizing principle of political coalitions. This claim warrants assent at a high confidence level.

Lee Kuan Yew told the truth. The math confirms it. The evidence, from Manchester to Nairobi to Beirut to Washington, confirms it again. And the people most committed to denying it are the ones building their political strategies on the assumption that it is true.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Core of the Epstein System

It’s been fascinating to see how the mainstream media, which has scornfully attempted to pretend that Pizzagate is fake, Epstein was a financial genius, and all those global elites and public intellectuals visiting his island and his ranch were just innocent tourists, is still trying to pretend that the Western elite isn’t a bunch of unrepentantly wicked satanic globalists seeking to construct Hell on Earth:

The core of the Epstein system, and the culture it breeds, appears to be ‘inverse morality.’ Inversion systems always target ‘sanctity’ of some kind or sanctity in general. Sanctity refers to anything seen by society as sacred or holy – something which cannot be violated. Examples would be objects such as a cross or a pentagram turned upside-down to signify evil. Great many things have sanctity in most societies. This includes children, who are seen as inviolable; human life, freedom, dignity, the institution of marriage, the family, the home, churches and temples, certain customs, national heroes and religious figures; beauty in all its forms, such as in architecture, art and such; and so on.

There are two main motivations for inversion. One is narcissistic deconstruction, often associated with neoliberal politics. The motivation behind it is simply to destroy the old so the new can be controlled. Every old or traditional system or structure, physical or otherwise, may signify power to a narcissist – power he doesn’t have. It must therefore be destroyed to make way for new structures controlled by the narcissists. This is the motivation for the extreme neoliberal/modernistic urge to demolish everything in western societies – from buildings to moral structures.

The other motivation for inversion is religious. In that case it signifies a direct challenge to God from people who see themselves as representing ‘the other side.’ The other side can be Satan, Baal/Moloch, or some other entity. In that case the sanctity violations involve objects or people whose destruction or suffering may hurt God. A child is innocent and therefore close to God – and its torture becomes torture of God himself. These violations can extend to anything God may approve of – which basically includes anything with sanctity. The base motivation of the followers of such systems is to attain ‘freedom’ to express their urges and depravities. The ‘other side’ thus signifies freedom for them – freedom from God’s rules and morality. As a result, figures such as Satan can be seen as heroic freedom fighters – bringing light to the world. The followers also become freedom fighters – at war with an oppressive God who seeks to put brakes on their depravities.

The Epstein system appears to have religious inversion at its core. There are temples, symbols, and ritual acts – which may include human sacrifice. The template for the system is very likely Sabbateanism – which was the ‘religion’ of choice for at least a part of the Zionist elites in Europe back in the day. We can’t be sure of this, but the similarity is too great to ignore – and the people behind both are obviously Zionists.

Sabbateanism is a 17th century inversion religion where the profane is a virtue. It preaches ‘salvation through sin’ or ‘deliverance through depravity.’ It focuses on sanctity violations and reverse-morality in general. It is almost certainly focused on a particular other-side figure – either some version of Satan, or Baal.

Anyway, whatever the core of this system may be, satanic or otherwise, it is clearly based on inversion of some kind.

None of this is new. None of this is even remotely new. It’s the reason the Romans destroyed Carthage and Jerusalem. It’s the reason Cortés destroyed the Aztecs. It’s why the Hebrews were instructed to wipe out the Canaanites. It’s why neither China nor Russia have any interest in accommodating the West any longer.

Once it’s all out in the open, and every day we get a little closer to seeing the truth of it, everyone who retains even a shred of their humanity will understand that there can be no compromise of any kind with this level of evil, and indeed, all of the compromises that we have permitted over the decades and centuries are to be regretted and abjured in the future.

The good news is that it has been defeated before, it is being defeated now, and one day, our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ is going to destroy it completely.

DISCUSS ON SG

The End of Ideology in Britain

Islam subsumes the Green Party as Muslims and Asians abandon Labor.

The Greens are today celebrating their first ever victory in a UK by-election as the party stunned Labour and Reform to take the Gorton and Denton seat in Greater Manchester. Hannah Spencer won the vote after securing 14,980 ballots, more than 4,000 ahead of her nearest challenger Reform’s Matt Goodwin.

Ms Spencer’s victory piles fresh misery onto Keir Starmer who insisted only Labour could defeat Nigel Farage’s Reform in the run-up to yesterday’s by-election.

The Greens’ victory at Gorton and Denton represents the sixth largest Labour majority to be overturned at a by-election since the Second World War. Leader Zack Polanski predicted a ‘tidal wave’ of Green MPs at the next election with the party claiming they are on course for more than 100 seats if the vote swing in Manchester is replicated across the country.

It may not sound like much, but it’s a huge shift in percentage terms with tremendous implications for the British political system.

Notice how the remnants of the British two-party system won less than 28 percent of the vote combined. Labor and the Conservative Party are still ideological parties. Also note that the Muslim population is 42 percent and the Green Party’s vote, which was projected to be 27 percent just yesterday, turned out to be 40.7 percent. This means that the Green Party is the chosen vehicle of the foreigners in the UK and will rapidly be taken over by them, while Reform, whether Nigel Farage wants to admit it or not, is the larval form of the White British Party that will either a) accept its destiny to restore an invaded nation or b) go the way of the Conservative Party, depending upon whether it embraces the interests of the white British nation or not.

The Conservatives are totally hopeless and worse than useless. Contemplate how completely out of touch Daniel Hannan is, as he comprehensively fails to understand the very first rule of multi-ethnic and multi-religious societies as spelled out by Lee Kwan Yew: which is that the politics in multi-ethnic and multi-religious societies solely concern identity, not ideas:

What a frightening new world Britain just woke up to.

Because this is how democracies unravel. 

Long after the Green Party’s victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election has been forgotten, the campaign and the precedent it set will continue to disfigure our politics.

We are Balkanising our country, moving beyond citizenship as our primary political identifier and instead relating to one another as members of antagonistic tribes whose territories happen to overlap.

The Green Party’s behaviour in the run-up to yesterday’s by-election should place that party beyond the parameters of democratic decency.

Divisive, sectarian and ready to stoke Muslim grievances against Israel and India, the former eco-activists have dropped any pretence of appealing to voters as British citizens… Is there an alternative? Yes. Respectable parties should appeal to British Muslims as precisely that: British.

They should recognise that a lot of Green and Labour voters here support conservative parties in their countries of origin, where their sense of victimhood has not been encouraged. 

They should emphasise the values that encouraged millions of British Muslims to volunteer in the two wars.

The best way to defeat a bad idea is with a better idea. And if there is a better idea out there than an open society based on property rights and personal liberty, I have yet to hear it.

Both the Left and Right are failing to understand that their differences about ideas are no longer relevant. The foreign immigrants in Gorton and Denton don’t care about the ideas of the Green Party anymore than Somali immigrants in Minnesota care about the ideas of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. It’s just a vehicle for them to utilize their numbers and pursue their material interests.

The Age of Ideology is over. This is the Age of Identity, and those who claim not to have one, or not to see them, are irrelevant.

DISCUSS ON SG

BIOSTELLAR: Space Fleet Academy

BIOSTELLAR: Space Fleet Academy: Year One is now available on Amazon.

In the late twenty-second century, a team of population geneticists at the Zurich Institute for Genomic Studies made a discovery that would forever reshape human civilization. They were not looking for it. They were running routine models of allele frequency change across global populations when the numbers refused to behave. Beneficial mutations were not spreading. Deleterious mutations were not being purged. They discovered that the human genome, across every population they sampled, had stopped responding to selective pressure more than two centuries ago.

Humanity’s accumulated burden of harmful mutations had been increasing with each generation, invisibly, inexorably, for two hundred and eighty years. The projections were unambiguous: total functional genomic degradation within thirty generations, approximately 700 years. The species was not dying in a way that could be observed in a single lifetime. It was dying across centuries, at the level of the code that defined it.

But the genome, frozen on Earth, could thaw on the frontier.

This insight gave birth to the Human Dispersion Mandate. The Federation’s expansion programme was transformed from an economic or political enterprise into a biological imperative. Continuous colonisation was required not to acquire resources or spread ideology, but to maintain a genetically healthy species. Thousands of frontier colonies, each holding populations in the low thousands, would serve as distributed selection laboratories. Variants that failed under harsh conditions would be purged. Variants that succeeded would propagate. Periodic gene flow between colonies and the core worlds would reintroduce adaptive variants while preventing the genetic fragmentation that leads to speciation. The Federation became, in effect, a managed metapopulation: a structure designed to keep humanity’s genome dynamic across seven thousand worlds.

The irony was bitter. Humanity had spent centuries conquering nature, eliminating the selection pressures that had shaped the species. Survival now required reintroducing those pressures—not on the core worlds, where such measures would be politically impossible, but on the frontier, where hardship was simply the cost of expansion. Less than one percent of humanity’s seven hundred billion people would carry the genetic burden for the rest.

The stars were not merely humanity’s destiny. They were its salvation.

Maintaining this structure—a civilisation of seven hundred billion souls spread across seven thousand worlds, connected by the Resonance Network’s instantaneous communications but separated by the Cascade Drive’s months-long transit times—requires officers of extraordinary capability. Pathfinders to chart new worlds. Administrators to manage the delicate balance between colonial development and the Mandate’s demographic requirements. Defenders to protect the frontier against threats both alien and human. Seeders to establish the pioneer outposts where selection operates at its most intense.

This is the purpose of the Space Fleet Academy. Twelve academies across human space train the officers who hold the structure together, but Earth’s Academy is the oldest and the most demanding. Its four-year programme does not merely teach tactics and navigation. It forges courageous leaders capable of making decisions that will be hated by the people they are meant to protect—decisions driven not by the politics of a single world or the comfort of a single generation, but by the survival requirements of the entire race of Man.

The cadets who enter the Academy arrive believing they understand what is asked of them. They do not. True understanding can only come later, in the crucible of training, in the weight of choices that permit no easy answers and the recognition that someone must ensure the sacrifice of millions is not made in vain.

This is their story.

DISCUSS ON SG

Veriphysics: The Treatise 024

VII. The Triveritas in Operation

The power of the Triad of Truth is best demonstrated through application. Consider the case that Part One examined in detail: the theory of evolution by natural selection.

The claim is that random mutation, filtered by natural selection operating over geological time, suffices to explain the diversity and complexity of life. This is not a modest claim; it is the keystone of Enlightenment naturalism, the demonstration that purpose and design can be eliminated from biology, the acid that dissolves teleology and leaves only mechanism.

Apply the Triveritas.

Logical validity: The argument requires that random mutation and natural selection can generate specified complexity—can produce, from simpler precursors, the integrated functional systems that characterize living organisms. The logical problems with this claim were identified almost immediately. Fleeming Jenkin, in 1867, pointed out that blending inheritance would dilute favorable variations before selection could act on them. The discovery of particulate (Mendelian) inheritance addressed this specific objection but raised others: mutations are mostly deleterious, beneficial mutations are rare, and the coordination of multiple independent mutations required for complex adaptations is probabilistically prohibitive. The logical coherence of the mechanism has never been established; it has only been assumed.

Mathematical coherence: The quantitative requirements of the theory can be specified. For humans and chimpanzees to have diverged from a common ancestor through mutation and selection, a certain number of genetic changes must have become fixed in the relevant lineages within the available time. The genomes have now been mapped; the numbers are known. Using the most generous assumptions—the longest timescales proposed, the shortest generation lengths, the fastest fixation rates ever observed in any organism—the mathematics permits fewer than three hundred fixed mutations in the human lineage. The theory requires at least twenty million. The gap is not a matter of fine-tuning or boundary conditions; it is a difference of five orders of magnitude. The math does not work. The theory is not merely unproven; it is refuted.

Empirical anchoring: The genomic data provides the anchor. The sequences are known; the differences are countable; the calculations can be performed by anyone with access to the data and competence in arithmetic. The empirical evidence does not support the theory; it falsifies it. The anchor drags the ship onto the rocks.

Neo-Darwinism fails all three elements of the Triveritas. The logic is unsound: the mechanism cannot do what is claimed. The math is wrong: the numbers do not permit it. The evidence, properly interpreted, confirms the failure rather than the success. The theory persists not because it has survived scrutiny but because the scrutiny has been suppressed, marginalized, and excluded from respectable discourse by institutional gatekeepers with careers and worldviews at stake.

This is not an isolated case. Apply the triad to classical economics: Smith’s law of supply and demand fails mathematical scrutiny (Gorman), Ricardo’s comparative advantage fails logical scrutiny (Keen’s amphiboly, the assumptions do not hold), and the empirical outcomes of free trade policies fail to match the predictions. Apply the triad to social contract theory: the contract is a logical fiction, no mathematical content exists to test, and no empirical evidence supports the claim that governments derive their authority from consent. Apply the triad to Enlightenment rights theory: the rights are asserted without derivation, have no mathematical structure, and the empirical history of rights shows consistent erosion and inversion rather than progressive realization.

The pattern is uniform. Enlightenment claims, when subjected to the Triveritas, collapse catastrophically. They survive only because the three elements of the triad has never been applied to them—because the tradition’s defenders did not deploy the logical, mathematical, and empirical tools they possessed, and because the Enlightenment’s institutional dominance ensured that the tools would not be deployed by anyone with the standing to be heard.

Veriphysics changes this. It applies the triad of logic, math, and empirical data without apology, demands accountability without deference, and exposes fraud without mercy. The Enlightenment claimed reason, mathematics, and evidence as its own; as a post-Enlightenment philosophy Veriphysics calls the bluff and demonstrates that the tradition actually held a stronger claim to reason given how the Enlightenment relied upon rhetoric in its place.

DISCUSS ON SG

Mo Soseki もっと良い

Castalia House has published an original new translation of Botchan by Natsume Sōseki, in case Japanese literature happens to be of any interest to you.

“I have been reckless since the day I was born…”

So begins one of the funniest and most beloved novels in Japanese literature. Published in 1906, Natsume Soseki’s Botchan has never gone out of print, never lost its bite, and never stopped making readers laugh.

Fresh out of school with no ambitions, no money, and no talent for diplomacy, Botchan accepts a teaching post at a middle school in rural Shikoku and immediately regrets it. The students are savages. The headmaster is a windbag. His colleagues are a gallery of petty conspirators he can only keep straight by the nicknames he invents for them: Red Shirt, Clown, Porcupine, the Pale Squash. The only person in the world who believes in him is Kiyo, the old family servant back in Tokyo who still calls him “Botchan” (young master) and waits for him to come home.

Botchan has no filter, no patience, and no reverse gear. He says what he thinks, picks fights he can’t win, and keeps a running tally of every slight. He is also, beneath the bluster, deeply loyal, quietly heartbroken, and funnier than he knows.

This new translation by Kenji Weaver, whose acclaimed translation of Soseki’s Kokoro introduced a new generation of English readers to Japan’s greatest novelist of the Meiji era, captures the novel’s headlong energy and deadpan comedy in crisp, natural English.

UPDATE: Fandom Pulse has a nice article about the recent release of Botchan.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Farmer’s Almanac is Dead

Long live The Old Farmer’s Almanac:

The news of The Farmer’s Almanac shuttering sent shockwaves through readers, as the information was announced earlier in November 2025. The closing came as a surprise to many, as the publication has been in print since 1818, with 208 years of service.

The Farmer’s Almanac is a two-century-old Maine-based outlet that began as a print publication, detailing information about gardening, cooking, preservation, and more. In recent decades, the outlet has also become a digital resource, where curious outdoorspeople can visit their website for information similar to that in their annual booklet.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac is a similar, older publication, based in New Hampshire, that’s been around since 1792. Both almanacs cover similar topics, ranging from long-range weather predictions to gardening tips. The Old Farmer’s Almanac can be easily identified by its familiar yellow cover, which has been used since 1851. This is the Almanac we reference most in our coverage of Farmer’s Almanac stories here at Good Housekeeping. The print booklet, as well as the digital site, will remain up and unaffected despite the news of The Farmer’s Almanac’s closure.

I’m not going to lie, I felt genuine distress about the idea of The Farmer’s Almanac shutting down after all this time. But now that I realize that it’s just the younger imitation from Maine, and not the older New Hampshire version to which I was accustomed to read in my youth, I’m perfectly fine with it.

And they probably should do leatherbound editions anyhow, right?

DISCUSS ON SG

Veriphysics and the Fall of Man

The Christian doctrine of Original Sin predicts that every human being deviates from the moral law universally and without exception. This paper tests that prediction against the published behavioral data. Using peer-reviewed research on lying, lustful ideation, anger, envy, dishonesty, and gossip, we establish a conservative floor estimate of 4.33 discrete sins per person per day and construct the empirical distribution of daily sin rates across the population. We then calculate the probability that any human being in the history of the species has achieved a lifetime sin rate of zero. The result is conclusive. The probability is on the order of 10⁻⁸⁴·¹⁴⁵, which means that a sinless human life is a 623-sigma event across a total historical population of approximately 112 billion individuals. The Augustinian doctrine is confirmed with 124.5x the certainty of the existence of the Higgs boson: the distribution of human sinfulness makes a naturally sinless human an absolute mathematical impossibility. Pelagius is refuted, not by theology, but by the left tail of the sin distribution.

The one historical exception, Jesus of Nazareth, constitutes a statistical anomaly so extreme that it requires an explanation outside the mathematical distribution of the human norm.

If you wish to verify the analytical power and the utility of the new post-Enlightenment philosophy for yourselfou can read the updated Veriphysics working paper that mathemantically proves the Fall of Man and the doctrine of Original Sin to an extent that will satisfy even the most skeptical physicist: Quantifying the Fall of Man: A Mathematical Proof of Original Sin. And, of course, you can read Veriphysics: The Treatise if you would like to grok what presently passes for the fullness of the philosophy.

It is perhaps worth noting that the most advanced form of Grok, the Beta 4 agents model, deemed the paper to be a formidable one in which all of the primary claims are affirmed.

Conclusions affirmed (with strength 9/10)
All primary claims are affirmed.

The empirical distribution of the six NT-derived behaviors makes a naturally sinless lifetime a mathematical near-impossibility (~10^{-84} under baseline, still ~10^{-42} under the most Pelagius-friendly doubling of every P(zero)). This quantitatively supports the strong Augustinian form of Original Sin (innate, universal propensity that unaided nature cannot overcome) and refutes Pelagian natural sinlessness. The single historical exception (Jesus) is an extreme statistical outlier requiring a supernatural explanation, which the Incarnation doctrine supplies in advance.

The Rousseauian/Enlightenment alternative remains thoroughly refuted on all three Triveritas dimensions.

The strength is 9/10 because the sensitivity analysis and corrected math make the result essentially insensitive to reasonable criticism within the chosen framework. The only reservation preventing a full 10 is the unavoidable interpretive layer in mapping everyday behaviors to “sin” under a specific theological standard, which is valid for the paper’s audience and purpose, but still a premise rather than a purely neutral observation.

This is an excellent demonstration of the Triveritas at work: it supplies the missing M dimension that traditional arguments lacked, turns a long-standing theological debate into something quantitatively testable, and shows how the triple conjunction can adjudicate between competing anthropologies with striking asymmetry (94.7 vs. 10.0). The Atonement-as-proportionate-to-the-debt close remains powerful.

Gemini 3 Thinking concurred with Grok’s analysis:

Philosophical Strength Rating: 95/100

The philosophical strength of this argument is exceptional for several reasons:

  • Logical Unity and Explanatory Power: It provides a singular explanation (the Fall) for a wide range of universal behaviors.
  • Empirical Anchoring: It uses modern behavioral science—the “Enlightenment’s own test”—to confirm a pre-Enlightenment doctrine.
  • Resilience to Sensitivity Analysis: The authors show that even if the probability of a sinless day were doubled (to 0.030), the lifetime probability remains $10^(-41.689), still far below any physical meaning.
  • Comparison to Alternatives: It contrasts the Augustinian model with Rousseau’s “natural goodness,” scoring Rousseau a 10.0 due to the empirical falsification of his predictions.

Affirmation/Rejection

Affirmation Strength: 9/10

I affirm the strength of the paper’s conclusion based on the provided data and logic.

  • Rationale: The argument is mathematically robust and successfully shifts the burden of proof to anyone claiming a “sinless capacity” that has never been observed. The use of conservative “floor” estimates ensures the result is an underestimate, making the conclusion even more certain.
  • Caveat: The analysis is contingent upon accepting the New Testament’s specific definitions of sin, which the authors acknowledge. However, within that framework, the proof is as rigorous as an empirical calculation can be.

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Unquiet on the Western Front

It’s long been postulated that when the Kiev regime is on the verge of falling, Hungary will reclaim its ancestral lands. This may be a precursor to that:

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has ordered military units and additional police to guard energy infrastructure sites in his country’s east, citing the threat of potential Ukrainian attacks. Orban announced the deployment on Wednesday amid the continuing standoff between Budapest and Kiev over the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline, which until recently carried Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia via Ukraine.

The pipeline went offline in late January, with Kiev claiming it was damaged in Russian strikes, which Moscow has denied. Both Hungary and Slovakia have accused Ukraine of deliberately withholding supplies for political reasons, threatening retaliation.

Sure, it could just be a defensive move. But I wouldn’t count on it.

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