Oh, Sweet St. Darwin, but it’s now it’s become clear that Dennis McCarthy has absolutely no idea what he’s even talking about with regards to evolution, natural selection, genetic drift, Probability Zero, MITTENS, or my case against evolution by natural selection. All this time, and all of these attempts to attack an irrelevant probability calculation, and he never even knew what the fundamental argument of the book is, much less understood it well enough to criticize it, as he recently demonstrated in the comments of his own site.
Stephen: I can’t speak for Vox, but there’s a difference between never occurring and being the primary mechanism. It’s been a while since I read the book. The math includes NS in the calculation so NS can occur, just as walking from NY to LA can occur, but is that enough? My understanding of the argument is that even granting that NS plays a role in the process, the conclusion is it’s not enough to get you to the final destination given the allotted time. Same goes for drift and a combination of both. The argument isn’t NS and drift never occur.
Dennis McCarthy: Stephen writes: “Vox is specifically attacking natural selection as the primary creative cause.” Stephen then writes: “I can’t speak for Vox”. Well, then stop trying to. But if you and Vox do agree Darwin was correct and that species can transform due to natural selection, I welcome you to the winning side. My entire proof was proving the elegance of the theory, its irrefutability, and that there has essentially never been any giant transformative leaps, but that it’s microevolution all the way down.
Stephen: I tried in the first comment, and made a point to not try in the next one. It’s not difficult to understand.
Dennis McCarthy: Yes, Vox tried to make the claim that natural selection did not have enough time, but never once challenged natural selection or rate of beneficial mutations. Instead, he focused exclusively on neutral mutations and Kimura’s theory— and was wrong about that, as I showed. Do you have some point here? Do you want to challenge my math?
Stephen: “Vox tried to make the claim that natural selection did not have enough time, but never once challenged natural selection” He tried but didn’t try??? Genuinely don’t understand this.
Dennis McCarthy: His incorrect equations focused on rate of neutral mutations–which has nothing to do with natural selection (or beneficial mutations).
VD: Dennis, it now appears that you not only didn’t read the book, but you still don’t even know what I’m talking about. Do you accept that natural selection cannot possibly account for the genetic differences between chimp and human? That is my core argument. Kimura and neutral theory don’t even begin to enter into it. I have directly challenged natural selection. I have directly asserted that Darwin was incorrect, wrong, and innumerate. I am, in fact, asserting that natural selection was not responsible for the origin of any species anywhere on Planet Earth.
Darwin’s theory of evolution by natural selection is not only not “irrefutable” but it has already been refuted. It has been absolutely, conclusively, and comprehensively refuted. And now anyone can readily confirm that Darwin’s math doesn’t math for themselves.
From PROBABILITY ZERO:
The theory of evolution by natural selection has never been subjected to a quantitative audit against the actual scale of genetic divergence revealed by genomic data. We present MITTENS (Mutation, Isolation, Time, Transmission, Environment, Natural Selection, Sex), a framework identifying seven necessary conditions for speciation through natural selection. Applying this framework to human-chimpanzee divergence using the telomere-to-telomere genome assemblies of Yoo et al. (2025)—which document approximately 410 million total genomic differences between the two species—we calculate that natural selection can accomplish at most 180 fixations on the human lineage given 252,000 generations and 1,400 generations per fixation (the fastest empirical rate ever measured in any organism). This represents 0.000088% of the approximately 205 million fixations required on the human lineage. The shortfall is 1,139,000-fold. Scaling analysis across 18 species pairs spanning the tree of life confirms universal failure for sexually reproducing lineages. The mechanism does not work.
And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why you always read the whole damn book before you offer even one little word in criticism of it, because no matter how confident you are in your position, no matter how absolutely certain you are of yourself, you’re going to look incredibly retarded when it inevitably becomes obvious to everyone that you aren’t even in the same zip code as the subject of the discussion.
As I told Dennis in his own comments, he’s not tall enough for this ride.
If you don’t even read the book you’re claiming to have refuted, then you’re not a serious individual and you don’t merit any intellectual respect whatsoever. That’s just retarded.
This reminds me a little of that moment back in the day when someone praised Terence McKenna for his eloquent metaphor about the DMT machine elves, and McKenna started screaming at the guy “it’s not a metaphor, the elves are real! The elves are real!” and everyone there suddenly realized that McKenna wasn’t the brilliant poet they’d all perceived him to be, but a burned-out druggie with an LSD-fried brain.
