Making Reddit Great tomorrow

I’ll be stopping by The Donald subreddit for an Ask Me Anything session tomorrow:

Vox Day, Trump supporter and author of Cuckservative: How “Conservatives” Betrayed America will be doing an AMA TOMORROW 3/17 @ 2:30PM ESTt

Many of you are already familiar with Vox as he is a major figure in the “alt-right” movement, as it is sometimes called, and a pro-nationalist. He’s an American currently living in Europe and he is insightful and well-versed in numerous topics, including (but not limited to): politics, economics, immigration/refugee crisis, gamergate, and publishing.

Some more info about Vox. He is:

  • A professional game designer who teaches the DEVGAME online game development course
  • A former nationally syndicated columnist for Universal Press Syndicate and WorldNet Daily
  • Creator of a personal blog with 2.2 million monthly views
  • Creator of one of the top game theory/men’s issues blogs on the web
  • The top critic of SJWism in the Science Fiction/Fantasy community
  • The best-selling political philosopher on Amazon
  • According to one Hugo award-winning author, “the Donald Trump of Science Fiction”

I hope you’ll show up as well. It is a moral imperative that we top Milo’s performance of 1637 comments, 1791 points, 68% upvoted, because you know it would drive him crazy and inspire him to new heights of fabulosity.


Trump: the math of victory

I’ll update this with more accurate data from Missouri when it is reported. But the results of the primaries and caucuses since the last analysis have been generally favorable for Trump, and contra the media naysayers, he’s in a slightly stronger position than I expected him to be after failing to pick up Ohio.

In my previous analysis, I said that Trump’s minimum expected delegate count after March 15 if he took Ohio would be 750 (719 + 31 from NC) and that “he will need somewhere between 271 and 325 delegates from the 606 that remain in the winner-takes-all states.” According to Real Clear Politics, his delegate count going into yesterday was 460. On top of that, yesterday he picked up:

99 Florida
52 Illinois
35 Missouri (est)
30 North Carolina
09 Northern Marianas

That brings him to 685 delegates. Now, there are 297 proportional delegates remaining to be assigned, and Trump is regularly winning about 44 percent of them. (For example, I estimated 31 for NC and his actual count was 30.) So, he can reliably count on 127 of those proportional delegates, which will bring his total to 812, 425 short of the 1,237 required for the nomination. The more he outperforms in the proportionals, and Rubio’s dropout should help him there, the more room for error he will have.

But perhaps the easiest way to understand it is this: there are 606 delegates left to be won in the 12 remaining winner-takes-all states. Trump has enough leeway that he could lose California and still win the nomination outright. He needs around two-thirds of the winner-takes-all delegates, which, given the way he has won 5 of the 6 winner-takes-all contests, losing only to a sitting governor in his home state, still tends to favor him.


Trump crushes Rubio in Florida

From Decision Desk HQ:

45.3% Donald Trump
27.6% Marco Rubio
16.5% Ted Cruz

That’s with 60 percent reporting. Ohio and Missouri don’t have any statistically significant results in yet. Remember to ignore the media spin. I’ll have a full mathematical analysis tomorrow, but the reality is that Trump needs either OH or MO to pretty much lock in the nomination.

He doesn’t absolutely need either, but if he gets both, he will get the necessary delegates.

UPDATE: The New York Times writes about Rubio’s dropout. The missing word? You guessed it.

Did you know that “one crucial shortcoming” was his youth?  I actually never ever read or heard that mentioned.

On the other hand: this entire article explains his failure to attract Republican voters without once mentioning “immigration”, “amnesty”, or “gang of eight”.

Those guys at the NYT are really on top of things.

At a certain point, you begin to realize they’re not stupid, they’re deceivers.

UPDATE 2: Fox has called Ohio for Kasich now. Not a drubbing, but not very close either. Missouri still looks pretty good for Trump, at 43-34 over Cruz, but only 3 percent of the vote is in.

If that holds up, the results are good, but not the hoped-for four-state KO. Trump would take 160 of the 226 available winner-takes-all delegates, so based on my general recollection, he’ll need something like 330 of the 606 remaining winner-takes-all delegates. (I’ll provide a more accurate number tomorrow, but I’d guess that estimate is on the high side.)

That should be doable, considering that he appears likely to take 71 percent of them today.


The past as prediction

For those of you who are disappointed by Ben Shapiro’s recent behavior vis-a-vis Breitbart and Donald Trump, don’t be. That’s always who he has been. Notice the date on this WND column, published on August 29, 2005.

The Chickenhawk Clucks

It is entirely possible that my WND colleague has a perfectly good
reason for not serving his country in its moment of need. For all I
know, he may have a weak heart, a wooden leg, a predilection for San
Francisco bathhouse sex, or some other condition that prevents him from
joining the military. But devoting two columns to criticizing a single word strikes me as a lady protesting a bit too much.

Mr. Shapiro’s first argument against the appellation is that it
is nothing more than a leftist attempt to silence debate. This is
partially true, but the argument is deceptive because it is incomplete.
It is not leftists, but the military, who have long despised the civilians
who clamor for war from the safety of their homes. In 1879, Gen.
William Sherman said: “It is only those who have neither fired a shot
nor heard the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood,
more vengeance, more desolation.”

His second and third arguments are that the insult is dishonest
and “explicitly rejects the Constitution.” But there is nothing
dishonest about calling into question the credibility of one who does
not practice what he preaches. If a CNBC analyst urges viewers to buy a
stock he is secretly shorting, he will rightly be dismissed as a
hypocrite unworthy of further regard. The unconstitutional argument is
spectacularly silly, since no one in Congress has proposed a federal law
barring such hypocrites from office. One can only assume that Mr.
Shapiro’s first Constitutional Law class lies ahead of him.

His fourth argument, which asserts that use of the term is
somehow “un-American,” reveals a similar failure to understand the First
Amendment and American history. Mr. Shapiro might wish the Constitution
prevented people from calling him names, but it actually protects their
right to do so and American political history is littered with an
abundance of inventive insults. As for the reference to the Bush
daughters, hiding behind the skirts of young women is no way to prove
you’re not a coward.

His fifth and final argument – that use of the term “chickenhawk”
is an attempt to avoid substantive debate – is easily disproved. I
have repeatedly criticized numerous aspects of this global struggle,
have openly opposed both the Iraqi and Afghani occupations, and am quite
willing to debate Mr. Shapiro or anyone else on the issue in the forum
of their preference. Yet I – like 62 percent of the soldiers and
veterans who frequent Vox Popoli and Blackfive
– am in accord with the notion that “chickenhawk” is an appropriate
label for a warmongering young columnist who urges others to make
sacrifices he has no intention of making himself.

Most of us realize that during wartime, sacrifices must be made
… But taking such a stand requires common sense and the knowledge that
we are in the midst of the great battle of our time.


– Benjamin Shapiro, WorldNetDaily, July 28, 2005

I would be remiss if I did not note that many of these military men
and women favored a different 11-letter word that also begins with
“chicken.”

The genuine flaw in the use of the “chickenhawk” label is that in
most cases it is being applied years, even decades, after the fact, and
inherently attempts to equate two different historical situations.
However, due to Mr. Shapiro’s precocious position in the national media,
this common flaw does not apply. While his peers are dodging sniper
bullets and IEDs in Afghanistan and Iraq, Mr. Shapiro is bravely urging
them to invade five more countries in the establishment of global empire
from the safety of his Harvard dorm room.

Did Iraq pose an immediate threat to our nation? Perhaps not. But
toppling Saddam Hussein and democratizing Iraq prevent his future
ascendance and end his material support for future threats globally. The
same principle holds true for Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt,
Pakistan and others: Pre-emption is the chief weapon of a global empire.
No one said empire was easy, but it is right and good, both for
Americans and for the world.


– Benjamin Shapiro, WorldNetDaily, Aug. 11, 2005

The America Bar Association already boasts more than 896,000 lawyers,
America has no desperate need for another one. The U.S. Army, on the
other hand, is currently 8,000 men short of its 2005 recruiting goals. I
am only one of many non-pacifist, non-leftist Americans who believe
that Mr. Shapiro would do well to heed his own words of Aug. 26, 2004.
“Now’s the time: Either put up, or shut the hell up.”


Is today the knockout blow?

As I pointed out previously, a Trump victory in two of the three large states today, Florida, Ohio, and Missouri, pretty much guarantees him the nomination… barring the RNC overturning the entire primary process:

New state polls released ahead of critical primaries on Tuesday find Donald Trump poised to deliver a knockout blow to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio in his home state, while the Republican front-runner is tied with Ohio Gov. John Kasich on his turf.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by a wide margin in Florida, while her advantage over Sanders in Ohio is narrower.

According to the new polling from Quinnipiac University published Monday, Trump has a wide lead on the Republican field in Florida, where he tops Rubio 46% to 22%. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz follows in third place with 14% support, with Kasich in last at 10%.

The new results mirror CNN’s poll of polls in Florida, where Trump leads Rubio at an average of 40% to 26%. Despite Rubio’s public optimism, the new poll suggests Florida — where Rubio has staked his campaign’s future — might serve as a humbling barrier for his White House bid.

On the GOP side in Ohio, the new poll shows Trump and Kasich are tied at 38% each. Cruz places third with the support of 16% of Ohio Republicans, while Rubio finishes a distant fourth at 3% — after his campaign told supporters to back Kasich in Ohio, as part of a strategic effort to prevent Trump from padding his delegate lead there.

Meanwhile, Rubio supporters on Twitter have been going berserk all weekend talking about the very small sampling of early voters favoring Rubio. I wouldn’t put any stock in that, considering the same people have been predicting electoral failure for Trump since before the primaries started.

Regardless, we’ll find out soon enough.


Making The Hugos Great Again

Since I will be unveiling the final Rabid Puppies recommendation list this week, it seemed the time was right to unveil the Rabid Puppies 2016 logo and motto. And yes, we are planning to make t-shirts available in the near future.

On a related note, this exchange nicely summarizes everything about the smug cluelessness of the Puppy-kickers who oppose us. From, as you would expect, the File 770 comments:

Cassy B. on March 14, 2016 at 7:20 pm said:
John C. Wright still can’t spell Patrick Neilsen Hayden’s name correctly, can he?

Cally on March 14, 2016 at 7:35 pm said:
Err, it’s Nielsen Hayden.

No wonder they can’t figure out that we’re not interested in their approval. I’ve also created a Twitter header – you can see it here – and if you want to display it on your own Twitter account, you can download it.


Breitbart needs a housecleaning

These leaked messages demonstrate that it’s amateur hour at Breitbart; the various contributors not only lacked the discipline of the VFM, but couldn’t resist the urge to jump in and become part of the story:

Well, they’re not standing with her anymore, and rightly so. Speaking of the VFM, I’ve requested a retraction and correction from the editor-in-chief. I’m giving him a few days to respond before we amplify the volume. As it happens, Nuzzi has already updated the piece a fourth time without correcting it; she’s putting it all on Jeet Heer now.


Kasich endorses amnesty

I find it hard to believe that anyone in Ohio is genuinely supporting this overtly anti-American lunatic:

1) “God Bless” Illegal Immigrants

Illegal immigrants are a “critical part of our society,” John Kasich told the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce last October. “For those that are here that have been law abiding, God bless them,” Kasich said—arguing that illegals “should have a path to legalization.”

2) “I couldn’t imagine” enforcing our current immigration laws: “That is not… the kind of values that we believe in.”

On the GOP debate stage in February, Kasich told millions of American voters that enforcing the nation’s immigration laws is not “the kind of values that we believe in.”

“I couldn’t even imagine how we would even begin to think about taking a mom or a dad out of a house when they have not committed a crime since they’ve been here, leaving their children in the house,” Kasich said. “That is not, in my opinion, the kind of values that we believe in.”

3) Kasich likened deporting the illegal population to Japanese internment camps

“To think that that we’re just going to put people on buses and ship them to the border—look at our World War II experience where we quarantined Japanese—I mean it’s a dark stain on America’s history,” Kasich said in November.

“We shouldn’t even think about it,” Kasich said of the “nutty” idea:

    “I don’t know many people that believe we should deport 11 million people—just because people shout loud doesn’t mean they’re a majority. I think most Republicans would agree that you can’t deport 11 million people. We shouldn’t even think about it. What are you going to do? Break their families up?”

I don’t think the people still relying on sob stories and worrying about breaking families up don’t understand that the long term alternative to repatriating most of the 60 million post-1965 immigrants is civil war. The USA is heading towards partitition at an increasingly rapid rate, and the more foreigners who are involved in the process, the more vicious the ethnic and religious cleansing is likely to be.

The dirt is not magic. The USA is not magically exempt from the same rules of power, politics, and war that have stricken nearly every other multiethnic society in history at one time or another. There is absolutely nothing preventing what has happened many times elsewhere from happening on US soil.

The post-1965 invasion is the largest invasion in all of human history. Think about it. What are the chances that it doesn’t end in violence? What is the scenario that doesn’t involve various ethnic groups scrabbling ruthlessly for power?

Deporting the illegals is only the first step to avoiding a nightmare, but Kasich is determined to keep making things worse.


A few things

If you’re looking for a job and you’re interested in this one, email me with NC in the subject:

Senior Linux Administrator – RHEL preferred by not required. Central NC. On-site only; no remote option.

Okay, so we’re good on Iron Chamber and Existence reviewers, thank you. However, we still need another PHP volunteer or two for a few weeks on Project Big Fork.


Breitbart and the Armageddon Hoax

First, Mike Cernovich notes how politically widespread the anti-Trump campaign hoax was:

Consider how deep this media hoax goes.

Michelle Fields, a “conservative,” fabricated a story with Ben Terris, a “liberal.”

Jabin Botsford of the Washington Post lied about being at the event, and then hid evidence that would have exposed the hoax.

Lloyd Grove of the liberal Daily Beast made up conversations to support Fields’ story.

Ben Shapiro, a “conservative,” used these fabricated sources and false accusations to demand that a man lose his job.

And everyone in the media kept running with the story, attacking skeptical readers like us. Moreover, a journalist who asked to see a video of the hoax was fired from his job.

The media is rotten to the core. Can you believe anything you read?

And there are some speculating just how deep the rot runs. A reader writes:

Suffice it to say that in the specific context of internal controls, my alarm bells went off when Fields’ non-event appeared on the front page of Breitbart, accompanied by a glamour shot and the title, “Michelle Fields, In Her Own Words,” or something to that effect.  It struck me as odd – basically, my “crap detectors” started to tingle. The first question that popped into my mind was, who made the editorial decision to print this? Failure #1.

Oddly, many Breitbart reporters began to publicly and vociferously back her up.  I say “oddly” because to any honest and rational person, there were a lot of unanswered questions, and given the venue, it would be normal for people to be bumped and jostled, highly unlikely that no one saw the battery that she alleged, and that there would be no Secret Service report on it.  This public commentary, much of it personal and emotional, was unprofessional and ill-advised.  Don’t they have an internal policy on this? If they do, why was it not enforced? Failure #2.

During this time, Joel Pollack, a Breitbart editor and in-house counsel, posted video as it came in, being very careful not to read too much into things. Personally, I think he did a pretty good job with this.

Breitbart suddenly suspended a reporter, Patrick Howley, who quite reasonably called for video of the incident, alleged to have occurred at an event filled with dozens of cameras and journalists. Fields and others spun this in her favor. Failure #3.

Breitbart publicist Kurt Bardella publicly and messily resigned, citing Breitbart’s handling of the situation as his primary reason for doing so.  Once again, Fields and company used this to bolster her story.  Failure #4.

The very next day, internal Breitbart emails from Joel Pollack were leaked to and published on Buzzfeed. Pollack was doing exactly the right thing in those emails – telling staffers to send him information and to stop commenting on the story.  That is just basic risk mitigation 101. I have no idea what was going on behind the scenes, but I suspect that Breitbart was getting more information about Fields, et al, from other sources, and may have been contacted by legal counsel for other parties. Nevertheless, SOMEONE leaked those emails, which were then used by Fields and her supporters to give her credibility and in the process to attack Pollack and Breitbart. Failure #5.

Late Sunday night, Shapiro and Fields “resigned.”  Here, I disagree with some of the comments I’ve seen around the internet regarding Shapiro’s future prospects.  He’ll be just fine, at least for as long as he can be of service to certain parties.  Shapiro wanted to leave Breitbart a couple years ago to focus on his new venture, The Daily Wire, but Breitbart allegedly bent over backwards to give him what he wanted so that he would stay with them in some capacity.  Yesterday, a blogger discovered that The Daily Wire is funded by the billionaire Wilks brothers who fund a Ted Cruz SuperPac.  It was after additional video and news about the funding behind the Daily Wire was going viral that Shapiro and Fields resigned.

This morning, you posted a Breitbart satire about Shapiro’s departure, and once again it gets very interesting.  The original piece was entitled something along the lines of “Shapiro Betrays Loyal Readers,” but the link itself was very odd: http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/03/14/futures-markets-wrap-dow-continues-uncertain-climb/. What does that piece have to do with the futures markets? Nothing.  It’s almost as if someone hid the piece behind a deceptive URL to get past internal editorial controls.  If you click on the link now, my suspicion is confirmed because the old story is gone, and instead you will find this statement by Joel Pollack:

“The article was written by me as part of an effort to make light of a significant company event, and was published as a result of a misunderstanding without going through the normal editorial channels. I apologize to Michelle Fields, my friend Ben Shapiro, and to everyone concerned.”

Failure #6.

Something big is going on at Breitbart.  Before I read SJWAL, I would have assessed this as incompetence, a failure of training and oversight, and the need for more robust internal controls. Now, I don’t. and it looks like it could be covert SJW entryism or something along those lines.  This is simply my opinion, but it looks like someone is targeting Joel Pollack, given the leaks of his emails and the latest event.  I also believe that one or more people with editorial control have been making decisions that create problems for Breitbart and diminish the site’s credibility.

I’m not sure whether it shows more arrogance, stupidity, or desperation that the perpetrators of the Armageddon Hoax would try to make hay out of such an obviously weak case, but the dishonesty and the repeated doubling-down precludes any possibility of it having been a series of accidents or mistakes.

It does, however, strike me that we might need to develop the concept of a “posture cascade”, similar to a preference cascade, in which the sum total of people striking knowingly false poses creates an unintended situation that takes on momentum of its own.

UPDATE: Cry us a river, little guy. No wonder conservatives always lost with “opinion leaders” like this.

Shapiro’s father, the writer David Shapiro, also resigned from Breitbart on Sunday evening.

According to the younger Shapiro, his father was hired under the pseudonym to protect his safety since the younger Shapiro said he received so many death threats for his writings.

“Breitbart put this under his byline because they knew I’d have to out him,” Shapiro said in an interview on Monday, adding that by linking to his profile with the California State Bar the site exposed personal information, though that information is outdated. “The fact they would use my father’s pseudonym in order to attack me just exposes how despicable they are.”

Now, wasn’t it Ben Shapiro who said people should be hunted down and lose their jobs for holding opinions other people didn’t like? Guess what, Ben? You’re fair game for everyone and anyone now.