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Gladwell and the Igon Value

I can’t honestly say I dislike Malcolm Gladwell’s books or even Gladwell himself.  How can you possibly develop a dislike for a genuinely curious dilettante who writes entertaining pop social science?  But to call him even a minor genius is to considerably overrate the man:

The themes of the collection are a good way to characterize Gladwell himself: a minor genius who unwittingly demonstrates the hazards of statistical reasoning and who occasionally blunders into spectacular failures….  An eclectic essayist is necessarily a dilettante, which is not in itself a bad thing. But Gladwell frequently holds forth about statistics and psychology, and his lack of technical grounding in these subjects can be jarring. He provides misleading definitions of “homology,” “saggital plane” and “power law” and quotes an expert speaking about an “igon value” (that’s eigenvalue, a basic concept in linear algebra). In the spirit of Gladwell, who likes to give portentous names to his aperçus, I will call this the Igon Value Problem: when a writer’s education on a topic consists in interviewing an expert, he is apt to offer generalizations that are banal, obtuse or flat wrong.

The ironic thing is that mass popularity of the sort that Gladwell enjoys is not only not evidence of surpassing brilliance, it is almost always precisely the opposite.  To be able to belabor the obvious to the clueless masses in an interesting manner is a useful gift, to be sure, but it helps to be closer to their average level of intelligence, not farther away.  I find it very strange that most people intuitively understand there tends to be an inverse relationship between brilliance and mass popularity when it comes to popular music and popular television shows, but not popular books.  Regardless of whether one is talking about Gladwell, Dawkins, Rowling, or Brown, their appearances on the bestseller lists is no more indicative of literary accomplishment than the consistent chart-topping of Britney Spears or 50 Cent is indicative of musical greatness.

Don’t get me wrong and think this is some sort of sour grapes or something based on the failure of my latest book to make its mark on the bestseller lists.  (It won’t, so long as the recovery theme remains in effect throughout the mainstream media.  In fact, I suggest that we can track the public perception of the state of the economy by how well the book is selling.)  Now, I love the Sports Guy and I’m delighted that The Book of Basketball actually hit #1 on the NY Times Bestseller list.  But as much as I happen to enjoy the Sports Guy’s writings and find them entertaining,  don’t believe that BoB or any of the present #1 bestsellers written by Mitch Albom, John Grisham, or Joel Osteen are particularly well-written or brilliant books.

Returning to Gladwell, Steve Sailer twists the knife: “Should I pause before I publish and apply reality tests to Dr. Frink’s theory … Nah! Dr. Frink is a wonderful genius! This time I’m clearly not overlooking any problems with the basic idea of my article.”  The amusing thing is that as with Paul Krugman and his claim that half of all U.S. banks failed in 1931, the error is a long-standing one.  In this case, Gladwell first introduced the concept of the Igon Value to an unsuspecting world six years ago.

As one of Sailer’s commenters notes, a Bertrand Russell quote would appear to be more than a little applicable here: “A stupid man’s report of what a clever man says is never accurate because he unconsciously translates what he hears into something he can understand.”

A pair of RGD reviews

Salt writes on Amazon:

Imagine you’re drowning in debt and your investment adviser or banker, trusted TV pundit, or some Nobel prize winner recommends you take on more debt and all will be made well. Vox Day explains what should be the obvious lunacy of such, but if one is familiar at all with current events, apparently isn’t.Vox Day explains what should be the obvious lunacy of such, but if one is familiar at all with current events, apparently isn’t. RGD is highly educational. I recommend everyone read it, and perhaps just once listen to your instincts and you might be the better off, viewing critically what those having a vested interest have been telling you.

DocintheATL writes on Amazon:

Very good read that probes the reasons behind our economic mess. The book starts off in Japan during the boom years, which develops a baseline for the remainer of the book insofar as the futility of government to correct the subsequent bust. The book does a good job deconstructing various macro-economic theories before addressing the one theory that fits well with most of the available evidence. Vox describes the limits inherent to GDP, CPI, and unemployment figures that are at the center of mainstream economic thought.

I very much appreciate those who liked the book and take the time to write reviews for it. There’s a reason most best-selling books are written by radio and television personalities these days, because their public platform is about the only way people hear about books now. Intelligent and substantive reviews on highly visible sites like Amazon are one of the best ways of circumnagivating this effective limitation on public mindshare.

The brilliant sociopathy of Gervais

A very interesting interpretation of The Office as a structural re-envisioning of corporate culture. I have to admit that in my experience, the Gervais Principle, as the author names it, is superficially more convincing than either the Peter or Dilbert Principles.

This is where Gervais has broken new ground, primarily because as an artist, he is interested in the subjective experience of being clueless. For your everyday sociopath, it is sufficient to label someone clueless and work around them. What Gervais managed to create is a very compelling portrait of the clueless, a work of art with real business value.

Here is the ultimate explanation of Michael Scott’s (and David Brent’s) careers: they are put into a position of having to explain their own apparent, unexpected and unexamined success. It is easy to explain failure. Random success is harder. Remember, they are promoted primarily as passive pawns to either allow the sociopaths to escape the risks of their actions, or to make way for the sociopaths to move up faster. They are presented with an interesting bit of cognitive dissonance: being nominally given greater power, but in reality being safely shunted away from the pathways of power. They must choose to either construct false narratives or decline apparent opportunities.

The clueless resolve this dissonance by choosing to believe in the reality of the organization. Not everybody is capable of this level of suspension of disbelief. Both Ricky Gervais (David Brent) and Steve Carrel (Michael Scott) play the brilliantly-drawn characters perfectly. The most visible sign of their capacity for self-delusion is their complete inability to generate an original thought. They quote movie lines, lyrics and perform terrible impersonations (at one point Michael goes, “You talking to me?” a line he attributes, in a masterful display of confusion, to “Al Pacino, Raging Bull“). For much of what he needs to say, he gropes for empty business phrases, deploying them with staggering incompetence. When Michael talks, he is attempting, like a child, to copy the flawless buzzspeak spoken by sociopaths like Jan and David Wallace. He is oblivious to the fact that the sociopaths use buzzspeak as a coded language with which to simultaneously sustain the (necessary) delusions of the clueless and communicate with each other.

Of course, one would be remiss to fail to point out the way in which this postulated analytical brilliance strongly suggests Gervais’s own sociopathy. This may offer partial explanation for his atheistic hostility to religion, (not his disbelief, mind you, just the hostility), whose creators and leaders he would naturally assume to be as sociopathic as he knows himself to be.

It would appear that I may have a sociopathic trait or two myself, as the author brings up one of my favorite tactics, the last sentence aside, in extra credit for his Law Number Five: “Quoting your opponents more accurately than they can quote themselves is one of the most fascinating moves you can employ. The original speaker is put on the defensive, forced to fumble and clarify, and in the process loses control. If you want to experience true schadenfreude listen closely to what your opponents say. Do not admit to enjoying this experience.” Of course, despite the best efforts of many critics over the last eight years, this has seldom worked on me. Since I make habitual use of the tactic myself, I never cease to anticipate it. Also, there are few things more amusing than seeing an arrogant and insufficiently analytical critic snap at the bait you’ve laid before him.

This is “the real world”

Gentlemen, I suggest we are not missing anything:

Gosh, my palms are sweating even now as I prepare to write his name. I am not a teenager, but a happily married 37-year-old. And yes, I have fallen madly, painfully, utterly in love with Robert Pattinson, along with ten million other women…. I can understand exactly why a crowd of 5,000 frenzied girls queued for hours in London’s Battersea Park on Wednesday to get a glimpse of him (while he was promoting the release of Twilight’s sequel, New Moon), just as it is perfectly clear to me why he was chased into the path of an taxi by a stampede of women in New York.

Of course, I am not the kind of person who’d ever normally consider writing ‘Bite me’ on my forehead, as one girl did on Wednesday, or scream my head off at some actor, but I would have gone to Battersea Park – if only I could have got a babysitter. Instead, I’ve been sleeping with the December issue of Vanity Fair, which features Pattinson as a cover boy, under my pillow, much to my husband’s mirth.

If that’s the real world, then by all means, count me out. If you’ll excuse me, I’ll be off racking up head shots in MW:2 for the next few hours.

The obvious solution

Disarm the military:

As a number of others have already pointed out, the mainstream media are doing their best to turn a mass murder committed by someone who worshipped at the same mosque as two of the 9/11 hijackers, made repeated attempts to contact al-Qaeda-supportive clergy, and shouted “Allahu Akbar” at the start of the attack into something other than an Islamic terrorist attack. If this wasn’t such a dreadfully serious matter, it would almost be funny watching Democrats insist that there’s no elephant in the bathtub. Perhaps the most bizarre of these claims is that of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, who insists that the core problem behind Fort Hood is that “America loves guns.”

Clearly the solution is not to remove all Muslim jihadists from the U.S. military, but to take away all of the military’s guns. I am told that historically, soldiers are known to have been particularly prone to shooting people with them, so the time is long past to disarm the soldiery. While some might think this would make the military’s task in Afghanistan and Iraq more dangerous, that’s obviously not the case. Since the battle for hearts and minds concerns niceness and school-building, not breaking things and killing people, it is self-evident that an armed military is actually inhibiting the pursuit of victory in those countries.

After all, people are people everywhere you go, and if the military doesn’t require armaments in the USA, why should they require them anywhere else?

The whine of the game widow

Especially considering that it’s not an actual male holiday like Madden Day or something:

Something momentous took place in The World of Men this week, something that those living in The World of Women – that is, largely, The Real World – may yet be unaware of. At midnight on Monday, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 went on sale. Should you be a reader of the female persuasion your reaction is likely to be mystification followed by the dawning realisation that this accounts for your partner’s having since gone AWOL….

Modern Warfare 2 allows participants to play the part of soldiers facing a series of combat scenarios, and is so bloodthirsty that it includes a couple of “checkpoints” where those without the stomach can opt out. It comes with an 18-certificate, however an army of forsaken women will argue that it should also carry a relationship health warning.

I have to admit, I’ve never understood how women, who apparently spend considerably more time in front of the television on average than men, can possibly complain about the male preference for electronic games. Let’s face it, you had better be one scintillating conversationalist and/or contortionist if you seriously expect to compete with CoD. Now, I do occasionally fear for the fate of the human race when talking to younger gamers who genuinely don’t seem to understand that real flesh-and-blood women could at least occasionally be preferable to porn and PS/3; at least back in the Golden Age, game geeks realized that they were compensating for missing out on something.

Anyhow, whatever, on to more important matters. Let’s say, for example, you’re playing CoD on the PC. And let’s say you have a mouse that just happens to have a joystick on the side. Do you prefer to assign WASD there for the movement? Or, do you leave that up to your left hand and assign Lie Down, Crouch, Stand Up, and Reload to the joystick? I’ve been playing both ways and I think I find the latter to be more efficient, but I was wondering what the other CoDers here might think.

The man who predicted the Great Depression

Mises finally gets his rightful due from the Wall Street Journal:

“Theorie des Geldes” did not become the playbook for policy makers. The 1920s were marked by the brave new era of the Federal Reserve system promoting inflationary credit expansion and with it permanent prosperity. The nerve of this Doubting-Thomas, perma-bear, crazy Kraut! Sadly, poor Ludwig was very nearly alone in warning of the collapse to come from this credit expansion. In mid-1929, he stubbornly turned down a lucrative job offer from the Viennese bank Kreditanstalt, much to the annoyance of his fiancée, proclaiming “A great crash is coming, and I don’t want my name in any way connected with it.”

We all know what happened next. Pretty much right out of Mises’s script, overleveraged banks (including Kreditanstalt) collapsed, businesses collapsed, employment collapsed.

This is why I’m pretty relaxed about RGD. As an economist, I’m not fit to replace the battery on Mises’s calculator. If he wasn’t afraid to be dismissed as a lunatic for standing against the socialist tide, I’m not afraid to risk the same for standing against the Neo-Keynesian one. The market and the GDP statistics are totally irrelevant in my opinion. The former looks terrible when measured in terms of gold or any foreign currency and the latter have been twisted and contorted so greatly that I suspect it will have to be trashed altogether by the time the Great Depression 2.0 comes to an end.

Remember that GDP comparisons to the Great Depression are intrinsically questionable because GDP didn’t exist until it was created in order to measure industrial output in World War II. Which, astute history buffs will recall took place after the economic events of 1929-1933.

Darwin’s killer disciples

The murderous children of evolution are a real problem, even if the Darwinists don’t like to admit it:

Darwin would no doubt have been horrified by all this, but it’s easy to see why some of his ideas might appeal to the disturbed adolescent mind. One conclusion implicit in evolutionary theory is that human existence has no ultimate purpose or special significance. Any psychologically well-adjusted person would regard this as regrettable, if true. But some people get a thrill from peering into the void and acknowledging that life is utterly meaningless.

Darwin also taught that morality has no essential authority, but is something that itself evolved — a set of sentiments or intuitions that developed from adaptive responses to environmental pressures tens of thousands of years ago. This does not merely explain the origin of morals, it totally explains them away. Whether an individual opts to obey a particular ethical precept, or to regard it as a redundant evolutionary carry-over, thus becomes a matter of personal choice. Cheerleaders celebrating Darwin’s 200th birthday in colleges across America last February sang “Randomness is good enough for me, If there’s no design it means I’m free” — lines from a song by the band Scientific Gospel. Clearly they see evolution as something that emancipates them from the strict sexual morality insisted upon by their parents. But wackos such as Harris and Auvinen can just as readily interpret it as a licence to kill.

The truth or untruth of natural selection, or evolution by natural selection, doesn’t depend upon their consequences. But the inability of biologists to recognize the obvious logical implications of the freedom from the limits of traditional morality that they celebrate only serves to demonstrate their complete incompetence as philosophers. If it’s no longer evil to freely fornicate or worship idols, it’s no longer evil to freely rape or murder either. And a description of a theorized process of historical moral development is no rational basis for subsequent cherry-picking between those developments you happen to believe are positive and those you happen to believe are negative.

On the radio

Here’s a link to yesterday’s interview on Morning Magazine. It was a relatively slow day… only four interviews. This one, however, was not about the book, but the wars and Veteran’s Day.

The Obama administration’s dithering over whether or not to accede to the theater commander’s request for more troops is a good example of the sort of thing Michael McSorley and I were discussing. If you can’t make up your mind about such a relatively minor decision, then you clearly have no idea what you’re doing in the strategic sense. If Obama doesn’t have enough confidence in General McChrystal to grant his request without hesitation, he should either replace McChrystal or end the occupation and bring the troops home.

Personally, I suspect the troop request was a political CYA on McChrystal’s part. He knows he can’t win there because the US lacks sufficient loyalty from the famously fractious locals and he also knows Obama has zero desire to send more troops to Afghanistan, so the request for 40,000 troops is essentially McChrystal washing his hands of responsibility while hoping Obama has the balls to withdraw U.S. forces. I think he’s miscalculated and that Obama will ultimately send the requested troops because, like most individuals with weak characters, Obama is terrified of being correctly perceived as weak. If the general is fortunate, Obama will send fewer troops and give him the ability to claim that he wasn’t given the necessary forces required to do the job.

Of course, none of this ritual dance between commander and commander-in-chief has anything to do with either the U.S. national interest or the interests of the individual American soldier.

Microsoft lameness

Lest you think that because I disagree with Apple’s philosophy, I am some sort of Microsoft fanboy:

Online reports suggest that as many as 600,000 gamers may have been affected. Microsoft confirmed that it had banned a “small percentage” of the 20 million Xbox Live users worldwide. Microsoft said that modifying an Xbox 360 console “violates” the service’s “terms of use” and would result in a player being disconnected.

I’m primarily a PC gamer when it comes to online play. But I’ve increasingly come to think the PS/3 is the much better option for online play even if the overall selection of games is somewhat reduced. In the past, I’d recommended an Xbox 360 due to its larger library, but at this point, if asked, I’d tell someone deciding between game systems to go for a PS/3.