It appears I may be wrong

Rick Perry may not be The Third Bush. He may be The Second Thompson. As in Fred Thompson. Joseph Farah is only the first Perry enthusiast to rethink his support for the potential candidate:

I was just dead wrong in all of my conclusions about the governor of Texas. I no longer want him to run and no longer believe he is a viable candidate. In fact, I will do all I can to warn the American people away from him. My view of Perry changed from favorable but skeptical to highly unfavorable overnight this week after I read his comments to GOP donors in Aspen, Colo.

Essentially, Perry said he is just fine with New York state’s decision to approve same-sex marriage.

“Our friends in New York six weeks ago passed a statute that said marriage can be between two people of the same sex,” explained Perry. “And you know what? That’s New York, and that’s their business, and that’s fine with me. That is their call. If you believe in the 10th Amendment, stay out of their business.”

Of course, GOProud, the homosexual Republican group, was quick to praise Perry for his stand. I’m sure Perry is very proud of that endorsement. What’s wrong with his answer? So much it would take me more than one 750-word column to explain. But I will attempt to address his cowardly surrender of the national culture succinctly.

If America is to rediscover its greatness, citizens of all 50 states will need to rediscover the common values that brought us together as a nation in the first place – not just all go out and do our own thing, with every man doing what is right in his own eyes. The only viable alternative is, quite literally, a break-up of the nation. What Rick Perry is advocating here is cultural surrender.

Translation: Rick Perry can forget about riding a wave of popular support from the social conservatives who brought Bush 43 to power. It’s not as if he’s got much appeal to the economic conservatives who are increasingly looking favorably upon Paul, Bachman, and potentially, Chris Christie. As for the Fred Thompson comparison, consider the results of the recent polls here and at Instapundit. Due to Instapundit’s larger readership, there were naturally more votes in his poll, with 13,599 votes compared to the 1,873 here at VP.

36% 07% Perry
20% 04% Palin
14% 72% Paul
07% 08% Bachman
06% 01% Romney

Obviously, this is a libertarian stronghold. But what is remarkable is the complete lack of enthusiasm among either readership for the candidate the media imagines to be the “frontrunner”, Captain Underoos. The strong amount of support for Perry and Palin at Instapundit reminds me very much of the enthusiasm for Fred Thompson in 2008, right up until the moment that Thompson actually threw his hat in the ring. I suspect Farah will be far from the only supporter of a hypothetical Perry campaign who will abandon ship as it becomes a reality.

However, I think that Paul’s numbers in the Instapundit poll are misleading, despite the recent poll that showed him tied with Obama among the general electorate. Until I posted a link to the Instapundit poll, Ron Paul was around 4% there; there is probably strong link between the 1,923 votes he received at Instapundit and the 1,353 he received here. Paul will win the general election if he is nominated, it’s winning the Republican nomination that presents the much greater challenge.


McNabb in Purple

I don’t hate this as much as I did last year and two years ago. First, because the team has no expectations. Second, because no one believes McNabb is a first-rate quarterback anymore. Third, because they are paying a reasonable price for him. Fourth, because it will give Ponder some time to develop.

If they can shore up the line a little better, McNabb should still be reliable enough to give AD and Toby some running room. He simply cannot be any worse than the Tarvaris Jackson Experiment. Of course, it would be very helpful if Rice would be resigned at WR and another free agent WR would be in order to give McNabb more targets.

Anyhow, it’s not the big move it would have been in the past, but unlike then, it’s one that actually makes sense. One has to wonder about the decision of the Seattle Seahawks to not only sign Jackson, but pay him second-rate starter money. At least Seattle fans can look forward to the “hold the ball high above your head as the pocket collapses move”. I always enjoyed that.


Missing the obvious

Megan McCardle adds 2+2, comes up with -4:

I’ve been having some disturbing conversations with both finance people and Washington people over the last few days, that have only confirmed the disconnect I wrote about a few weeks ago. Each side is sending signals that the other side is not reading correctly. And this is getting more dangerous by the hour.

The core fact is that markets haven’t sold off nearly as much as you’d expect if Wall Street were really freaking out. This is not because Washington pols have told their Wall Street paymasters about a secret deal that just hasn’t reached the ears of those of us reporting from down here. Nor are they calm because they think that a failure to raise the debt ceiling will be no big deal. They certainly don’t believe that a forced spending cut of 40% will somehow make us extra-super-more-likely to make us pay off our debt.

No, they’re relatively calm because they simply cannot bring themselves to believe that we’re not, in the end, going to raise the ceiling. It’s too outlandish that we would, through the collective action of our congressmen, suddenly and for no apparent reason shoot ourselves in the head.

This is sound reasoning, as far as it goes. But it doesn’t get you very far. They’re deriving a theory of the debt ceiling like Aristotle, from first principles rather than data. In general, my non-representative sample of people working on or near Wall Street is that they are now noticeably more sanguine about the prospects for a deal than people working in the city where the deal is going to get made….

Meanwhile, just as Wall Street doesn’t have much insight into what’s going to happen in Washington over the next week, I don’t think Washington really understands what will happen in the markets. I think Stan Collender is right: Washington, particularly the GOP bit of it, is interpreting Wall Street’s lack of a reaction as a sign that it’s maybe not such a big deal to breach the debt ceiling. But the real message Wall Street is sending is “You can’t be serious! Not raising the debt ceiling would be a disaster!”

This is an impressive failure to comprehend the obvious. First, what McCardle doesn’t understand is that it is raising the debt ceiling that would be a disaster. The ratings agencies are not warning everyone that a failure to make a deal to raise the debt ceiling will lead to a reduction in the quality rating of U.S. debt, but that a failure to provide the $4 trillion in spending cuts that were mentioned as part of a deal will lead to the aforementioned ratings downgrade.

While a failure to raise the debt ceiling will certainly have negative consequences for stock prices and GDP statistics, this helps the long-term prospects for the ability of the U.S. to raise funds in the future. And second, the relative lack of panic over the rapidly approaching “deadline” is not due to any false signal readings, but rather the fact that the deadline is an artificial and meaningless one.

As for what Wall Street wants, the answer is obvious. More money, more debt, more inflation. That doesn’t mean that what Wall Street wants is relevant, good for the economy, or good for the American people. In fact, it’s usually a reliable indicator of what is bad for everyone but Wall Street. Concerning Washington, they know perfectly well the debt ceiling will be raised. After all, the only thing that really stands in the way is for Republicans to crumble, which they are doing as expected.

House Republicans are rallying behind House Speaker John Boehner’s (R., Ohio) deficit reduction plan, believing that is it their best available option to raise the debt ceiling and cut spending. During a Wednesday morning conference meeting, Boehner told members to “get your ass in line” and support his plan. “This is the bill,” he said. “I can’t do this job unless you’re behind me.” If the bill passes the House, the speaker predicted, Senate Democrats and President Obama would “fold like a cheap suit.”

Notably, Rep. Jim Jordan (R., Ohio), chairman of the Republican Study Committee, opened the meeting by apologizing for a series of e-mails sent by an RSC staffer urging outside groups like Club for Growth and Heritage Action to pressure undecided members to oppose the plan. Rank-and-file members, many of them members of the RSC, were none too pleased to find themselves on the list of targets. There were several calls for the offending staffer to be fired. Much of the meeting was devoted to the controversy, which merely underscores the intra-party tension that has been simmering over the past several weeks.

Meanwhile, however, the opposition bloc led by Jordan appears to be crumbling, as leadership’s message seems to be sinking in. Sources tells NRO that a number of members who were confirmed no votes against the Boehner plan announced during the meeting that they would be voting yes.

I know I’m surprised….


Confront, cow, destroy

At times, even people who agree with me wonder why I have a tendency to utilize my superior intelligence as if it were a hammer to be applied to an interlocutor’s fragile teeth. What they fail to understand that this has nothing to do with any personal insecurities or internal need to advertise the readily apparent, it is simply that it happens to be the rhetorical method I have found to be most effective. That doesn’t mean I prefer it to the dialectical method when that is a legitimate option, but here is an example of the costs of eschewing any such technique:

What happened next is what happens every time you depart from orthodoxy: group panic. We’ve all been there. You don’t want to wreck everyone’s good time and you wish everyone could keep cool, but allowing their hysteria to censor you is ridiculous, so you open your big mouth. “I’m dubious,” I said. He didn’t believe me. I assured him I wasn’t kidding. He remained skeptical. I finally convinced him I wasn’t playing devil’s advocate.

Bang! Tony is up on his feet and his finger is in my face. (They always do that.) “Do you realize that 60% of this country believes in creationism? That’s who you’re associating yourself with. Do you believe in creationism, too?” I stood up and tried to explain the logical fallacy of guilt by association, but now his wife and two other people were standing and finger-pointing, too. “Don’t you think it’s strange that the science against global warming is all funded by oil companies?” Then they did this thing liberals do where they make a sarcastic idiot face with their finger on their chin and say, “Hmm, I wonder why that could be? Gee, I guess they care about science. Yeah, that’s it.” I had to yell to be heard at this point and kept saying, “I don’t care who’s saying it or what anyone’s motive is to say anything. John Wayne Gacy can tell me murder is wrong, and it’s still wrong. All I care about is the facts.” I told them Hitler used toilet paper but that doesn’t mean we’re tied in with his shit just because we use it, too. I even yelled, “All cats are mammals. All dogs are mammals. All cats are not dogs.” But I couldn’t get a word in edgewise. This screaming match wasn’t meant to get to the truth. It was meant to wake me up from being an ignorant heretic who’d chosen the Dark Side. They allowed zero possibility I knew what I was talking about. I disagreed with them and therefore I was ignorant.

In his Rhetoric, Aristotle noted that for some audiences, “not even the possession of the exactest knowledge will make it easy for what we say to produce conviction.” I would go even further and suggest that for some audiences, conviction remains impossible. The behavior that McInnes is describing is indicative of precisely such an audience. Appeals to Aristotelian dialectic – otherwise known as logic – is useless and will accomplish absolutely nothing, as McInnes recounts in his story. If you are reduced to explaining “all dogs are not cats”, you are most certainly dealing with an audience of the sort that Aristotle deemed susceptible only to rhetoric.

The rhetorical audience relies heavily, indeed, almost entirely, upon appeals to authority and emotion. That is why they usually drift toward tangents concerning motivations, because they are attempting to impugn the authority to which they believe their opponent is appealing. (The alternative is emotional appeals, which are self-evident.) This makes little sense when the “authority” is mere factual reality, but since facts rely upon sources, any such sources provided can always be attacked, which in the eye of the rhetorical audience is somehow tantamount to refutation. “I have rebutted it because I said it was wrong” is a commonly heard formulation.

The thing that must be kept in mind when dealing with a rhetorical audience is that it doesn’t know very much and isn’t very intelligent. That’s why rhetoricians usually rely upon others to do their thinking for them. Establish that you are not only more intelligent than they are, but more intelligent than their precious authorities as well, and they have literally no recourse beyond the usual game of evasion and aspersion.

The first step is confrontation. Being accustomed to groupthink, this throws them immediately off-kilter. They will respond with all the sarcasm and heated emotion that McInnes describes. This is where many conservatives make a mistake and back down for fear of social disruption, but the important thing to remember is that you have not caused it and you are not responsible for it. Barring job interviews, there is no situation wherein etiquette that demands mindless acquiescence to every provocative assertion. But don’t meet heat with heat, meet it with ice, although calm words combined with a slight half-smile can be useful if you wish to entirely emotionally discombobulate the rhetorician.

The next step is to cow them. This is best used through application of the Socratic method. Don’t make any assertions, simply ask questions that will reveal, to them and everyone else, how devoid of actual knowledge they are. This is frightfully easy because most rhetoricians are prone to instinctive lying. If you are sufficiently well-informed, you can simply methodically expose each of their lies as they are presented. Credentials can be useful at this point; remember, you’re not dealing with a dialectical audience here that is capable of recognizing logical fallacies. I occasionally find it more amusing to “win” an argument using an argument I know to be fallacious because my interlocutor is too inept to spot the flaw in it than by using a correct one, but then, I am an Award-Winning Cruelty Artist so I don’t recommend this to the average dialectician.

Finally, once they have been sufficiently cowed, it is time to destroy them. This comes in three forms, the Implosion, the Submission, or the Run Away Run Away. I am always impressed when a rhetorical crowd is able to submit, because it indicates that they have at least understood that their position is wrong and they are theoretically capable of learning. The Implosion is probably the most satisfying, simply because it is funny. I enjoy few things more than watching an arrogant and overmatched individual publicly go into a complete emotional meltdown because he simply cannot bear to admit that he was wrong. Of course, the point isn’t the pleasure one might take in it, but rather, that everyone who witnesses the Implosion will recognize that the position was untenable.

And then there is the response we see so often on this blog, which is the Run Away Run Away response, which in its Internet form is better described as the Retreat Into Silence. PZ Myers is a good example of this response, which involves leaving your stunned well-wishers grasping at ever increasingly improbable explanations for your failure to even attempt to defend your position.

Anyhow, the next time a clueless member of the rhetorical crowd is emitting sarcastic commentaries, casting aspersions about your motivations, or showing signs of wanting to wave a finger in your face, just remember the acronym CCD. Confront, Cow, Destroy. The additional benefit, in addition to peace of mind, is that not only will rhetoricians soon become reluctant to so much as cluck any absurdities in your direction, but women also tend to view everyone else’s intellectual fear of you as social dominance, which naturally enhances your attractiveness to them.

Sure, they may well complain to all and sundry that you’re a jerk and so forth. But remember, translated from chickspeak, all that means is that they wish you’d hit on them.


Here is your immigration integration

Courtesy of a half second-generation immigrant speaking with The National Council of The Race:

After running through his talking points on the debt negotiations, Obama turned his attention to a subject just as thorny: immigration reform. Acknowledging that some civil rights activists have criticized his administration for deporting 1 million undocumented residents, Obama said: “I share your concerns; I understand them. We are responding. We are enforcing flawed laws in the most humane way possible.”

With a nod toward the deadlocked debt talks, he added: “Some want me to bypass Congress and change laws on my own.”

The audience began chanting “Yes, you can!” a play off the president’s 2008 campaign slogan.

Note that these are the very Hispanics that Karl Rove and George W. Bush were sure would vote Republican because they’re so Catholic and traditional. How utterly astonishing that the magic of a geographic relocation has not caused these Mexican, South and Central American immigrants to suddenly develop a due respect for the concepts of limited government and the separation of powers developed by English Protestants two centuries ago!


On his way out

Even the mainstream media is beginning to bang the drum for Obama’s retirement from the 2012 campaign:

New polls confirm Obama’s Democratic base crumbles

With all of the spotlights on the high-stakes debt maneuverings by President Obama and Speaker John Boehner the last few days, few people noticed what Vermont’s Sen. Bernie Sanders said: “I think it would be a good idea if President Obama faced some primary opposition.”

At this point, I expect the main question isn’t whether Obama will step aside, but rather, if a health issue or the ever-popular need to spend more time with his family will be the excuse provided. The publicity given Sanders’s comments is yet another shot across Team Obama’s bow.


Not quite nobody

I believe I have pointed the connection between reduced government spending and reduced GDP on occasion as well:

The entire premise of the alleged “recovery”, in the words of Ben Bernanke, has been about pumping asset prices. But they won’t remain “pumped” when we take our medicine. They’ll go down.

A lot.

How much? Oh that’s easy – we know for a fact what the minimum contraction will be. It’s right here: That’s about 12% of GDP or about $1.8 trillion dollars. Why? Because GDP is simply defined as “C + I + G + (x – i)”, and “G” is government spending. Decrease it by that 12% of GDP and GDP falls by (at least) 12%. This is simple math – subtraction.

Yes, we need to do this. Yes, people will raise hell. But it will make, at least for a short time, unemployment worse and pain will increase among Americans. We will not buy those iPhones and cable TV and nights out at the bistro, and the follow-on effects cannot be avoided.

The problem with everyone pontificating on this is that nobody – other than I – is talking about what happens when, not if, we take our medicine. See, we must at some point. But as the chart makes clear up above we’ve been in an economic Depression we have refused to admit to for the last three years, just as someone on a monstrous multi-year bender will refuse to admit they’re addicted to some substance.

Of course, Karl is leaving out the so-called “multiplier effect”, for the very good reason that it does not exist despite the Keynesian myth-making. This is probably just as well because if it did, GDP would decrease even more than the 12% contraction in G(overnment spending).

In RGD, I anticipated that the decline in GDP would ultimately approach 35%: Utilizing total credit market debt as a proxy for the relative size of the contractions, I estimate that Great Depression 2.0 will be approximately one-third worse than the Great Depression. This indicates a 35 percent decline in real GDP over a five-year period, indicating a nadir of 9,455 sometime between the end of 2012 and the middle of 2013.

Now, obviously the time frames are off given the reckless decision by the Washington elite to stave off the inevitable declines in total debt outstanding and GDP by the gargantuan increase in Federal borrowing and spending over the last three years. But, once those efforts end, whenever that might be, there is no question that a statistically visible contraction will begin. It is mathematically assured. In light of Karl Denninger’s 12% figure, I think it may be worth noting that the contraction of private debt already amounts to 9.7% of its Q3-2008 peak.


2012 Republican candidate poll

Since Instapundit is asking the question, I thought it would be interesting to see the difference in candidate preferences between our readerships.

Who would you support for GOP 2012 Presidential nominee?
Michele Bachman
Herman Cain
Thaddeus McCotter
Sarah Palin
Rick Perry
Ron Paul
Tim Pawlenty
Newt Gingrich
John Huntsman
Mitt Romney
  
pollcode.com free polls

Sam Harris on “Christian Terrorism”

Mr. Harris weighs in with what some will likely consider to be a surprising, (and disappointing), conclusion. But it speaks well for his integrity and actually approaches an intelligent response. It also explains why the “Christian fundamentalist” theme is rapidly disappearing from the media:

It has been widely reported that Breivik is a “Christian fundamentalist.” Having read parts of his 1500-page manifesto (2083: A European Declaration of Independence), I must say that I have my doubts…. As I have only read parts of this document, I cannot say whether signs of a deeper religious motive appear elsewhere in it. Nevertheless, the above passages would seem to undermine any claim that Breivik is a Christian fundamentalist in the usual sense. What cannot be doubted, however, is that Breivik’s explicit goal was to punish European liberals for their timidity in the face of Islam.

I have written a fair amount about the threat that Islam poses to open societies, but I am happy to say that Breivik appears never to have heard of me. He has, however, digested the opinions of many writers who share my general concerns—Theodore Dalrymple, Robert D. Kaplan, Lee Harris, Ibn Warraq, Bernard Lewis, Andrew Bostom, Robert Spencer, Walid Shoebat, Daniel Pipes, Bat Ye’or, Mark Steyn, Samuel Huntington, et al. He even singles out my friend and colleague Ayaan Hirsi Ali for special praise, repeatedly quoting a blogger who thinks she deserves a Nobel Peace Prize. With a friend like Breivik, one will never want for enemies.

One can only hope that the horror and outrage provoked by Breivik’s behavior will temper the growing enthusiasm for right-wing, racist nationalism in Europe. However, one now fears the swing of another pendulum: We are bound to hear a lot of deluded talk about the dangers of “Islamophobia” and about the need to address the threat of “terrorism” in purely generic terms.

First, it’s quite clear that Breivik was a Christian in the sense of Christendom, not Jesus Christ. As The Perfect Aryan Male, who is a lawyer occasionally required to do work with Saudi visas, explained it, when you go to Saudi Arabia you have to choose between checking “Christian” or “Muslim” on your application. The Saudis couldn’t care less about personal beliefs, your self-identification, or if you pretend to worship the Flying Spaghetti Monster, they simply want to know if you are a member of the Umma or the Dar al-Harb.

Second, Harris has recognized what so many people seem to find inexplicable. Breivik targeted the future politicians of the Labour Youth because the quislings of the Labour Party are responsible for Norway’s open borders and the subsequent Islamic immigration. While Breivik may or may not have been a bigot, it is clear that his murderous attack was not a bigoted act, but rather, an explicitly political one. This is something he addresses directly in the manifesto when he writes about how it is not the wild animals who are to blame for entering the zoo, but the zookeepers who hold the gates open and permit them to enter.

(That being said, given the pictures of the Labour Youth that have been released, it wouldn’t be surprising if a significant percentage of the victims were not, in fact, ethnic Norwegians.)

Third, I believe Harris is incorrect with regards to his analysis of the probable consequences. Contra the blithe assumptions of the media, I suspect that Breivik’s mass murder will tend to increase the enthusiasm for nationalism on both the European Right and Left because it has increased and underlined what were already the extraordinarily heavy costs being imposed upon European societies by the multiculturalists and immigration enthusiasts within it. As Harris notes, many people, of various creeds, already harbor serious concerns about the incompatibility of Islam and secular society.

There are national elections approaching in Switzerland and France. We should be able to determine if Breivik will have any discernable effect upon the political situation by seeing if the anti-immigrant, anti-Islam People’s Party (CH) and National Front (FR) perform better or worse than they did in the previous elections.

Of course, as Kevin Williamson noted, it is self-evident that Breivik is a lunatic of the sort defined by Umberto Eco in Foucault’s Pendulum.

A lunatic is easily recognized. He is a moron who doesn’t know the ropes. The moron proves his thesis; he has a logic, however twisted it may be. The lunatic, on the other hand, doesn’t concern himself at all with logic; he works by short circuits. For him, everything proves everything else. The lunatic is all idée fixe, and whatever he comes across confirms his lunacy. You can tell him by the liberties he takes with common sense, by his flashes of inspiration, and by the fact that sooner or later he brings up the Templars.


Those well-educated atheists

There goes another atheist claim. It turns out that the areligious in Britain are the least likely to go to to college:

A study of more than 13,000 young people found that 77 per cent of those who described themself as Hindu at the age of 15 went on to higher education, compared with 45 per cent of Christians. Some 63 per cent of Sikh teenagers and 53 per cent of Muslims went on to study at university, but just 32 per cent of those who had no religion at 15 undertook higher education.

This is, of course, further evidence in my point about the two churches of atheism. I expect that the college attendance rate of High Church self-identified atheists will be higher than the Christian rate, and perhaps even as high as the Hindu rate. It’s all about the restrictions on the group selected. No doubt the rate of Hindu college attendance is rather lower in India, where most Hindus actually live, than in Britain, where the Hindus are a small and self-selected group.

This is why it’s always necessary to pay attention to the Atheist Dance. When they want to talk up their numbers, they refer to Low Church “no religion”. When they want to talk up their objective qualities, they refer to High Church self-identified atheism. It’s rather like making a distinction between Christians and Catholics. The latter is a subset of the former.