Category: Uncategorized

The end of the political poll

Another reason to anticipate a Trump victory: when the President wins again, we’ll never have to pay any more attention to the pollsters:

Should Trump once again dispatch his Democratic challenger, the polling industry is finished, Republican pollster Frank Luntz told Fox News on Thursday. 

“Well, I hate to acknowledge it, because that’s my industry,” he told Fox anchor Bret Baier. “But the public will have no faith. No confidence. If Donald Trump surprises people… my profession is done.”

Luntz insists that his polling is accurate this time, and that Biden will win. However, undecided voters may be leaning toward Trump. As the two men faced off in the final presidential debate in Tennessee on Thursday night, Luntz organized a focus group of undecided voters. After the showdown, a majority of these voters were leaning toward backing Trump. They described him as “controlled,” “poised,” and “surprisingly presidential,” while Biden was thought of as “vague,” “elusive,” and “defensive.” 

If a Biden-friendly pollster, backed by his latest focus group, is publicly opening the door to a potential Trump victory, the election gurus may not be as confident in their figures as they let on.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver is another one of these gurus, and his predictions are taken seriously in Washington. Right now, Silver gives Biden an 87 percent chance of winning. Yet the nation’s premier pollster has also been hedging his bets. On the same day that he bumped Biden’s chances up to 87 percent, Silver took to Twitter to remind his followers that “Trump still does have a nontrivial chance.”

“There’s still some time left,” he continued. “Tipping-point state polls are closer than national polls, sometimes polls are wrong… and mail voting and court disputes create some additional uncertainties.”

The Economist’s G. Elliot Morris is similarly all-in on Biden, giving the Democrat a 92 percent chance of winning on November 3. Morris is confident in his prediction, overly so according to Silver. Yet even though Morris has declared the race “very probably” over for Trump, he couldn’t help but write an article explaining exactly how he may be wrong.

I expect both Luntz and Morris know perfectly well what is going to happen on November 3. Silver is the only one who is dumb enough to insist that his model is right and it is reality that has it wrong. Watch as the polls “unexpectedly” begin to “tighten” between now and then.

The storehouse of knowledge

 Essays in Idleness observes that the libraries are metaphorically burning:

For a new generation of reactionaries, old printed books can provide a way to preserve the culture and knowledge now being systematically “re-curated” (i.e. censored and physically destroyed) everywhere I look.

But of course I meant small private libraries, that will have to be hidden from public view, and guarded against electronic penetration; not the extravagant starchitectural wonders that pass for “highbrow” among people who never formed the habit of reading.

Too, as in Aldous Huxley, and the age of Homer, we should be memorizing our most treasured works for the dark age to come. Intelligent schooling, even rote learning must, like the Catholic Church, survive underground.

This is one of the reasons we founded Castalia Library. It allows every subscriber to take on the role of those monks who saved so much human knowledge from the rise of the Dark. Given their censorious behavior, do you really believe Google Books and Amazon and other converged institutions aren’t going to systematically eradicate those books that they find “problematic” for one reason or another?


UPDATE: Speaking of Castalia Library, the bindery just sent a picture of the test stamping of the Libraria edition of AWAKE IN THE NIGHT LAND.

All right, we’ll call it a draw

I didn’t watch the debate last night. But all you have to do is see the mainstream media calling it a draw to know who won:

Biden brought up the former New York City mayor as he lashed out at Trump for not calling out Russia and other foreign powers for election meddling. In turn, Trump claimed Biden had enriched himself with foreign dollars alongside his son.

‘I don’t make money from China, you do. I don’t make money from Ukraine, you do. I don’t make money from Russia, you do,’ Trump said. The president alluded to Tony Bobulinski, a former business partner to Hunter Biden that Trump brought to the debate as his guest. But it was only a passing mention given the drama Trump’s campaign had orchestrated just hours before the clash on stage.

Prior to the debate, Bobulinski addressed White House reporters and claimed he had proof that the former vice president was aware of his son’s business dealings with China.

‘All of the email, the emails, the horrible emails of the kind of money you were raking in,’ Trump said. ‘And Joe, you were vice president when some of this was happening. And I think you owe an explanation to the American people, why is it – somebody just had a news conference a little while ago – who was essentially supposed to work with you and your family, but what he said was damning,’ Trump continued. ‘And regardless of me I think you have to clean it up and talk to the American people. Maybe you can do it right now,’ the president added….

Trump also found a way to tie Biden’s complaints to his own primary grievance: the Russia probe. After Biden tried to tie the apparent information dumps about his son to Russian election interference, the president scoffed.

‘You mean the laptop is now the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax?’ Trump asked, incredulously.

‘The laptop is Russia, Russia, Russia? You got to be kidding. Here we go with Russia,’ he said – taking the issue that most endangered his presidency and brought on the multi-year Mueller probe and turning it on his rival.

Trump found ways to get in many of his favorite digs as the exchange went on and on. He called Hunter’s laptop the ‘laptop from hell.’ He also found ways to put Biden on his heels by asking when he pitched various plans: ‘Why didn’t you do it in the eight years’ serving with Obama. Biden could only summon a brief answer that only hinted at the GOP opposition he once had to contend with in the House. ‘We had a Republican Congress. That’s the answer,’ he said, without expanding. 

Even with the personal animosity and charges of corruption, the debate lacked much of the fire of the first encounter in Cleveland, in part due to the technological change with the microphones, and possibly due to deliberate decisions by the candidates to hold some of their impulses in check. But a comparatively calm debate that some analysts were already calling a draw denied Trump the opportunity to reset the race, with Biden leading him by 8 points in the Real Clear Politics polling average. 

Say goodbye to Charlie Brown

Better buy the DVD. It looks like Apple is going to vanish A Charlie Brown Christmas.

For many families, Peanuts holiday specials are key markers of the season, but don’t expect to watch them this year. After 20 years with ABS, the rights to It’s the Great Pumpkin Charlie Brown, A Charlie Brown Thanksgiving, and A Charlie Brown Christmas were acquired by Apple TV Plus…. This will be the first year since 1965 in which Peanuts specials haven’t aird free on broadcast TV.

How long do you think it will be before Apple edits out the Bible from the Christmas story? I give it three years. And let’s face it, the Thanksgiving special could be offensive to indigenous people and might remind people that being replaced by immigrants is a bad thing, so it will have to go too.

NPR is just very, very busy

Why haven’t you seen any stories from NPR about the NY Post’s Hunter Biden story? We don’t want to waste our time on stories that are not really stories, and we don’t want to waste the listeners’ and readers’ time on stories that are just pure distraction. – Terence Samuels, Managing Editor for News, National Public Radio.

It’s just hard to work in the time to cover all the criminal shenanigans of the Biden crime family when you’ve got to run very important pieces on maple syrup, black cellists in the Cleveland Symphony Orchestra, juice-drinking Tik Tok stars, and structural racism in historical Sesame Street episodes.

Remember, lust is a sin

 

This first Libraria Castalia book is now being belatedly bound in fine Italian goatskin. And yes, that is all genuine 22k gold, it’s not just on the spine. The books are going to look absolutely spectacular and they are already sold out. However, there are still some copies of AWAKE IN THE NIGHT LAND and THE DIVINE COMEDY available. They retail for $500, but subscribers can buy one copy each at the subscription price. Both Libraria editions will also be bound soon, along with the Library edition of the Dante.

We’re running a little late on the first three Junior Classics hardcovers, so they won’t ship before the end of this month but they will be out in plenty of time for Christmas.

Hunter Biden and his 14-year old relative

The reports about Hunter Biden’s hard drive are rapidly going from bad to worse for the Biden crime family:

Approximately one third of the explicit photos of minors in Hunter Biden’s laptop were of the same 14-year-old girl — who is one of his relatives, according a shocking new report. Not only were there inappropriate photos of the child on her own, but Hunter Biden was in some of them with her.

“A source close to the matter, though, who claims to have seen the images on Hunter’s laptop, told Revolver that about one-third of the images are of the same underage girl. Some of the images are topless, while in others she is shown in suggestive positions with Hunter himself,” Revolver News reports.

The Gateway Pundit spoke to another source who said the same thing.

It won’t surprise you to learn that /pol/ has already figured out who the girl is. And given that she’s attractive, there is no chance that the media is going to be able to keep a lid on the matter once the first pictures leak. 

Considering that Hunter Biden is known to have had an affair with his dead brother’s widow, it is readily apparent that the entire family has serious boundary issues.

Which god is that?

 The Fake Pope declares that the unrepentant are “children of god”. By which he apparently means children of his god, the god of this world:

Pope Francis has endorsed same-sex civil unions, saying in a documentary that homosexual people are ‘children of God’ and that they ‘have the right to be in a family’. 

‘Homosexual people have the right to be in a family. They are children of God. Nobody should be thrown out or be made miserable over it,’ the 83-year-old said in one of his sit-down interviews for the film. ‘What we have to have is a civil union law; that way they are legally covered.’

He added that he ‘stood up for that’ in an apparent reference to his time as archbishop of Buenos Aires when he opposed legislation to approve same sex marriages but supported some kind of legal protection for the rights of gay couples. The Pope’s remarks will come as a shock to millions of Roman Catholics who have long followed the doctrine that gay relationships are sinful and accepted the Church’s stand against the worldwide advance of gay rights. 

I’d feel a lot more sorry for Catholics if most Protestant churches weren’t exactly in the same boat. The invasion and infestation of the leaderships of the Christian churches around the world is pretty close to complete. 

Demoralization Season ends early

The polls are “tightening”, as they always do, but a little early this election cycle. Most likely this is because the Hunter Biden scandal cut the legs out from pollsters’ intention to “credibly” increasing Joe Biden’s lead to an “insurmountable” lead.

Today’s Trump vs. Biden poll finds that the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden has suddenly gotten much tighter. IBD/TIPP’s latest 2020 presidential poll update shows that Republicans are rallying around Trump, Biden is leaking Democratic support, and the gap among independents has narrowed.

The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll update shows the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 2.3 points, 48.1{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}-45.8{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 3{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.9{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}.

Since the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll launched on Monday, Oct. 12, Biden’s support has slipped 3.8 points, from 51.9{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3} to a new low-water mark of 48.1{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}. Trump poll numbers have gone the other way, rising 2.4 points to his new high-water mark of 45.8{5c1a0fb425e4d1363f644252322efd648e1c42835b2836cd8f67071ddd0ad0e3}. Biden’s lead peaked at 8.6 points in the Oct. 13 presidential poll.

Of course, even this fake poll shows Trump and Biden as deadlocked. Jo Jorgenson is much more likely to receive around one percent of the vote than the 3.27 percent that the Johnson/Weld ticket did in 2016.