Category: Uncategorized

Inflation and the money supply

There is considerable talk about inflation these days, since gasoline prices are hitting historic highs and the Federal Reserve has been increasing the money supply at a very rapid rate. And yet, if we actually take the time to look at a range of data, one thing becomes very clear: the increase in prices simply hasn’t kept pace with the increase in either of the primary measures of the monetary stock.

Annual delta, February 2011 to February 2012

M1: +341.8 billion, +18.2 percent
M2: +882.3 billion, +9.9 percent
US avg gas price: +22 cents, +6 percent
National median home price: +0.3 percent
CPI-U: +2.9 percent

This gap in relative deltas cannot be explained without bringing the credit markets into the equation. And it should be fairly obvious, if not tautological, that an increase in debt is inflationary whereas a decrease in debt is deflationary, as per the law of supply and demand. So why are we still seeing some price inflation despite the contraction in the private debt sectors?

The answer is simple. The rapid 23 percent annual expansion in public debt has allowed the economy’s overall debt level to remain essentially flat for the last four years. In other words, despite all of the foreclosures and defaults, there has been no debt contraction and therefore no deflation… yet. Even so, the only place that the Fed’s herculean attempt to raise price levels by printing, borrowing, and spending money has really been effective is in the stock market, or more precisely, in Apple stock.

I can’t disagree

But that’s hardly the salient point:

“I think if President Obama came out as gay, he wouldn’t lose the black vote,” a cheerful Van Jones told MSNBC this afternoon. “President Obama is not going to lose the black vote no matter what he does,” he added.

He’s certainly not going to lose it to Mitt Romney. But what a very strange thing to say, considering the rumors that have surrounded Obama in Chicago.

WND column

Dissolution and Post-Democracy

It is always difficult for those who live through transitional periods in history to recognize that they are taking place.

While we distinguish between the Roman Republic and the Roman empire, and mark the birth of the Byzantine empire with the establishment of its capital at Constantinople, it is unlikely that the average person living under Roman rule understood, much less cared, that he was a citizen of the Roman Republic, the Eastern Roman Empire or the Western Roman Empire. Indeed, although we call them Greeks and Byzantines, the men of the Eastern Roman Empire still called themselves Romans and believed they, and not the barbarian-infested ruins of the city on the seven hills, were the true heirs to Romulus and Caesar Augustus, even though they no longer lived in Italy nor spoke Latin.

Comment issues

We’re having some trouble with comment counts over 200 being inaccessible to the reader, so please expect some turbulence as we experiment with solutions.

UPDATE – MK has fixed the problem. Once a post is over 200 comments, one can click on NEWER to get the 201+ comments.

The transformation of the secular left

At the end of the day, the Left’s addiction to authoritarianism exceeds their commitment to secularism:

George Galloway is the founder and sole personality of a political party that he calls Respect. A veteran of the hard Left, he is the most prominent person in Britain to have made the transition from Communism to Islamism…. Everything is different now because Galloway has won a by-election in the constituency of Bradford West, and re-enters parliament as an independent. The Labour Party has held this seat since 1974 and expected to do so again. But Muslims, mostly from Pakistan, have replaced the old Labour voters in huge numbers and they like Galloway’s Islamism. Presenting himself as a pseudo-Muslim, he talked about Allah and dropped Arabic words into his speeches, had posters put up in Urdu, had supporters speaking in praise of sharia, and criticized his Labour opponent, a Muslim by birth, for drinking alcohol. A landslide followed. Galloway had a majority of over 10,000 and a swing from Labour to Respect of 36 percent.

According to the media, this swing is due to the discontent of the working class who would like the Labour Party to be old-style Socialists. Class resentment is in order but Muslim separatism and racism is taboo. Reporting the news of the by-election, the BBC couldn’t bring itself even to utter the word Muslim. A senior Labour Party ex-minister could only say there was a local “problem” and refused to elaborate what that might be even though a crowd of young men with beards could be seen on television swarming round Galloway.

I wish I could find it more amusing that the secular Left is, precisely as expected, being replaced by the Islamic Left. The abhorrent vaccuum is being filled. Galloway is a freak and we can hope that he is simply a one-off, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Belatedly coming to their senses

Republicans finally turn against the decade-long military occupation of Afghanistan:

Support for the war in Afghanistan has fallen to an all-time low with the majority of Americans saying the U.S. should withdraw all of its troops from Afghanistan before the 2014 deadline set by the Obama administration, according to a new poll. The CNN/ORC International survey released Friday indicated only 25% of Americans favored the war in the Asian country. A majority of Republicans voiced opposition to it, for the first time since the war began in 2001.

I still find it amazing that Obama has gotten a pass for continuing the occupation, considering that the only reason he beat out Hilary for the nomination was because he was supposedly the anti-war candidate. Republicans may be stupid and slow to grasp the obvious, but the cognitive dissonance of the American liberal truly knows no bounds.

In memoriam

RIP Keith Olbermann’s career. SNL presciently provided it an appropriate premortem tribute:

Richard, as you know, throughout this campaign, I have frequently called for Senator McCain’s arrest. But with this latest celebration of all things Nazi, has not McCain crossed the line and for the good of the country should he not straightaway resign?

Well Keith, I too have been critical of Senator McCain. But to suggest that he has Nazi sympathies I think is rather outrageous.

Courageous? I suppose. It’s certainly not the first time I’ve been called that. That started in high school, with my editorials for the school radio station and my work as equipment manager for the cross country team. So courageous? Sure. Guilty as charged.

He really should have stuck with Sportscenter.

The false doctrine of the Trinity

The eighth point in Jamsco’s attempted summary of my doctrinal beliefs is a succinct one. “8. The Trinity is obvious BS. It’s easily proved. [Direct quote from a comment here].” As it happens, he got that one entirely correct, which is not the case in two of the other ten points.

Now, the falsity of the doctrine can be proved in a variety of ways, but since we’re dealing with mainstream Churchianity here, I’ll utilize the easiest and most obvious because those who subscribe to the doctrine of the Trinity also subscribe to the doctrine of divine omniscience. Note that since I am skeptical of both doctrines, this argument obviously does not reflect my own theological beliefs. Let’s follow the logic:

1. The Trinity is God as three divine persons, the Father, the Son, and the Holy Spirit. These three persons are distinct yet coexist in unity, and are co-equal, co-eternal and consubstantial. These three divine persons are combined in one being we call God.

2. This one being is omniscient, and therefore knows everything.

3. It is written, in Matthew 24:36: “But about that day or hour no one knows, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father.” Therefore, the Son and the Holy Spirit are not omniscient, and furthermore, do not possess the same knowledge as the Father.

4. Therefore, the Son and the Holy Spirit are not co-equal and consubstantial with the Father. They may or may not be co-eternal.

5. Being neither co-equal nor consubstantial, the Son and the Holy Spirit are not one being with the Father.

6. Therefore, God is one person, the Father. The doctrine of the Trinity is a false one.

I further note that we can branch from (3) and prove the falsehood of the Trinity in a slightly different manner.

4b. Since God is omniscient and the Son and the Holy Spirit are not, neither the Son nor the Holy Spirit are God.

5b. Therefore, God is one person, the Father. The doctrine of the Trinity is a false one.

It should not escape one’s attention that if one insists on clinging to the doctrine of the Trinity, it is necessary to abandon the doctrine of divine omniscience. Obviously, I subscribe to neither, but it is not possible to subscribe to both. My perspective is that divinity can be most usefully understood in a manner akin to human royalty. Prince Harry may be royal, but no one is under the impression that he is co-equal and consubstantial with his grandmother, the sovereign Queen Elizabeth. This is in keeping with the idea that both Jesus Christ and the Holy Spirit are Man’s advocates, they are not his judge.

And for another perspective from one with doubts about the Trinity doctrine, this is an interesting summary of Isaac Newton’s studies of the subject. Another one can be found here.

In one notebook it is clear that, already in the early 1670’s, Newton was absorbed by the doctrine of the Trinity. On this topic he studied extensively not only the Bible, but also much of the Church Fathers. Newton traced the doctrine of the trinity back to Athanasius (298- 373); he became convinced that before Athanasius the Church had no trinitarian doctrine. In the early 4th century Athanasius was opposed by Arius (256-336), who affirmed that God the Father had primacy over Christ. In 325 the Council of Nicea condemned as heretical the views of Arius. Thus, as viewed by Newton, Athanasius triumphed over Arius in imposing the false doctrine of the trinity on Christianity.

Eine kleine Nachtmusik

The Euro debacle keeps getting more and more interesting:

The central bank of Germany will no longer accept bank bonds backed by Ireland, Greece and Portugal as collateral, becoming the first euro-zone central bank to exercise a new privilege to protect its balance sheet from the region’s debt crisis. The decision signals the determination of the Deutsche Bundesbank to limit risks from the nonstandard measures the European Central Bank has taken to combat market stress during the crisis.

More broadly, it reflects concerns that the ECB’s crisis-fighting measures may be encouraging banks to shift debt of dubious value to central-bank balance sheets, ultimately exposing taxpayers to what may wind up being toxic assets.

Translation: the Germans are getting tired of propping up the Euro and the rest of the European Union.