Those dratted hackers

I exchanged a pair of friendly emails with the intrepid book reviewer “Icefog” this morning after my good friends at the NSA provided me with his contact information last night.  “Icefog” explained that his Amazon account had been hacked and he was quite happy to remove the fake reviews that had been posted on Amazon using it.  I’m entirely content to take his explanation at face value, and I would appreciate it if Mr. Kulkis would please remove his four reviews that were posted in response to the now-deleted fake ones.


Edward Snowdon’s liveblog Q&A

If there is any doubt that Snowdon is a hero, the fact that he is openly taking questions from the public and addressing them should settle that one.

1) Why did you choose Hong Kong to go to and then tell them about US hacking on their research facilities and universities?
2)
How many sets of the documents you disclosed did you make, and how many
different people have them? If anything happens to you, do they still
exist?


1) First, the US Government, just as they did with other
whistleblowers, immediately and predictably destroyed any possibility of
a fair trial at home, openly declaring me guilty of treason and that
the disclosure of secret, criminal, and even unconstitutional acts is an
unforgivable crime. That’s not justice, and it would be foolish to
volunteer yourself to it if you can do more good outside of prison than
in it.

Second, let’s be clear: I did not reveal any US operations against
legitimate military targets. I pointed out where the NSA has hacked
civilian infrastructure such as universities, hospitals, and private
businesses because it is dangerous. These nakedly, aggressively criminal
acts are wrong no matter the target. Not only that, when NSA makes a
technical mistake during an exploitation operation, critical systems
crash. Congress hasn’t declared war on the countries – the majority of
them are our allies – but without asking for public permission, NSA is
running network operations against them that affect millions of innocent
people.

And for what? So we can have secret access to a computer in a
country we’re not even fighting? So we can potentially reveal a
potential terrorist with the potential to kill fewer Americans than our
own Police? No, the public needs to know the kinds of things a
government does in its name, or the “consent of the governed” is
meaningless.

2) All I can say right now is the US Government is not going to be
able to cover this up by jailing or murdering me. Truth is coming, and
it cannot be stopped.

Two great quotes:

“The consent of the governed is not consent if it is not informed.” 

“Citizens with a conscience are not going to ignore wrong-doing simply
because they’ll be destroyed for it: the conscience forbids it.”

Those are the words of a free man and a hero of human liberty.


The raw terror of the gun

A woman nearly scares herself to death by wearing an gun on her hip… an empty gun:

I started my 30-day gun trial with a little window-shopping. I visited a gun show and two gun dealers. I ended up buying a Glock 9mm
handgun from Tony, a gun dealer four miles from my house. I settled on
this model because it was a smallish gun and because Tony recommended it
for my stated purposes of protecting myself and my home.

It was obvious from the way I handled the gun that I knew nothing
about firearms. Tony sold it to me anyway. The whole thing took 7
minutes. As a gratified consumer, I thought, “Well, that was easy.” Then
the terrifying reality hit me, “Holy hell, that was EASY.”  Too easy. I
still knew nothing about firearms.

Tony told me a Glock doesn’t have an external safety feature, so when
I got home and opened the box and saw the magazine in the gun I
freaked. I was too scared to try and eject it as thoughts flooded my
mind of me accidentally shooting the gun and a bullet hitting my son in
the house or rupturing the gas tank of my car, followed by an
earth-shaking explosion. This was the first time my hands shook from the
adrenaline surge and the first time I questioned the wisdom of this
30-day experiment.

I needed help. I drove to where a police officer had pulled over
another driver. Now, writing this, I realize that rolling up on an
on-duty cop with a handgun in tow might not have been fully thought
through….

I told him I just bought a gun, had no clue how to use it. I asked
him to make sure there were no bullets in the magazine or chamber. He
took the magazine out and cleared the chamber. He assured me it was
empty and showed me how to look. Then he told me how great the gun was
and how he had one just like it.

The cop thought I was an idiot and suggested I take a class. But up to that point I’d done nothing wrong, nothing illegal.

So here I sit at Starbucks, and the irony couldn’t be thicker. On
March 12, 2010, I was surrounded by big hairy men with guns on their
hips, yelling at me as I led a protest against Starbuck’s gun policy.
Today, I’m surrounded by five-year-old boys sitting with their moms at
the next table. Now I’m the one with a gun on her hip.

The gun makes me
more fearful than I could have imagined.

Keep in mind that there are people who genuinely think I’m crazy because I believe permitting terrified little mice like this a voice in governance is likely to lead to the loss of human liberty.  What the writer clearly doesn’t understand that it is not the gun that makes her fearful, fearfulness is her essential state of being.

She’s not the only one.  I have personally witnessed women reduced to tears by the sight and sound of men checking to confirm that their guns are completely unloaded. It was like seeing someone come unglued because the driver buckled his seatbelt.


Technology and the decline of the gatekeepers

The same forces are at work undermining the power of gatekeepers in every entertainment industry, film, books, and games:

“Let me give you the simplest math,” he replied. “The simple, simple, simple math.”
Good,
I thought. Because my friends and I are not so great at math. I can
guesstimate the budget of a big movie to within a hundred thousand
dollars by reading the script, but I can’t add the columns therein.
“The
movie business,” Peter said, “the historical studio business, if you
put all the studios together, runs at about a ten percent profit margin.
For every billion dollars in revenue, they make a hundred million
dollars in profits. That’s the business, right?”
I nodded, the good student, excited that someone was finally going to explain this to me.
“The
DVD business represented fifty percent of their profits,” he went on.
“Fifty percent. The decline of that business means their entire profit
could come down between forty and fifty percent for new movies.”
For
those of you like me who are not good at math, let me make Peter’s
statement even simpler. If a studio’s margin of profit was only 10
percent in the Old Abnormal, now with the collapsing DVD market that
profit margin was hovering around 6 percent. The loss of profit on those
little silver discs had nearly halved our profit margin.
This
was, literally, a Great Contraction. Something drastic had happened to
our industry, and this was it. Surely there were other factors: Young
males were disappearing into video games; there were hundreds of home
entertainment choices available for nesting families; the Net. But
slicing a huge chunk of reliable profits right out of the bottom line
forever?
This was mind-boggling to me, and I’ve been in the business for thirty years….
When Peter referred to the “transition of the DVD market,” and
technology destroying the DVD, he was talking about the implications
of the fact that our movies were now proliferating for free—not just on
the streets of Beijing and Hong Kong and Rio. And even legitimate users,
as Peter pointed out, who would never pirate, were going for $3 or $4
video-on-demand (VOD) rentals instead of $15 DVD purchases.
“When did the collapse begin?”
“The bad news started in 2008,” he said. “Bad 2009. Bad 2010. Bad 2011.”
It was as if he were scolding those years. They were bad, very bad. I wouldn’t want to be those years.
“The
international market will still grow,” he said, “but the DVD
sell-through business is not coming back again. Consumers will buy their
movies on Netflix, iTunes, Amazon et al. before they will purchase a
DVD.” What had been our profit margin has gone the way of the old media.

This is the very point that the SFWA members didn’t understand when I tried to warn them about the sale of ebooks through non-Amazon channels such as games.  The big mainstream publishers, (and more importantly, the genre publishers owned by them), not only don’t have these channels, they can’t even sell through them because their legacy distribution contracts prohibit them from selling books for virtual currencies.  And I very much doubt Ingram or Barnes & Noble is going to allow publishers to rewrite contracts in order to help them bypass the conventional channels into which they are locked.

Amazon is putting serious pressure on ebook pricing, but it is also maintaining a strong floor.  That floor will disappear once the in-game channel starts to see decent volume. So on the one side, their profit margins are going to decline as ebook prices continue to fall – the average price of an ebook bestseller fell from $11.79 in October 2012 to $6.59 in May 2013 – on the other, they’re not going to be able to sell game tie-in books much longer once Microsoft starts selling HALO ebooks through the Xbox and Disney starts selling Star Wars ebooks through its in-game stores.

It will probably surprise no one to discover that the primary response of the forward-thinking futurists was to declare their opinion that First Sword was unlikely to sell enough ebooks to matter one way or the other, as if the universal adoption of 3D hardware texture-mapped acceleration that Big Chilly and I introduced in Rebel Moon, and the 16-bit color we introduced in Rebel Moon Rising, had anything at all to do with how many copies of those games were sold. 

Speaking of First Sword, I’m working on the standard contract for in-game ebook sales right now, and I would welcome any comments or suggestions those interested in selling either original Selenoth-related fiction or unrelated material through First Sword and other games might have.


Mailvox: the lessons of history

JD demonstrates that one of the benefits of aging is that one has the ability to look back and determine who was, and who was not, correct:

At college in 1980, my Government Studies prof also served as Secretary
of the Socialist Workers Party of Minnesota (the real one, not the DFL).
We clashed over Robert Mugabe, just coming to power in Zimbabwe, he
asserting it spelled salvation and I, that it spelled ruin.

I
e-mailed him a year or two ago, asking if I could get a retroactive
grade increase since my predictions had proven more accurate than his.
His explanation was that he truly believed Mugabe was an agrarian
reformer whose program of taking land from Whites to give to Blacks
would benefit the country; but things just hadn’t worked out as hoped.

I
didn’t bother to send him the famous Heinlein quote about Bad Luck. And
I didn’t really expect the grade change. But it certainly was
satisfying to say “I told you so” 30 years later.

I doubt it will take until 2043 for “anti-racists” and those who are blinded by rage at the suggestion that not all human populations are equally civilized to ruefully explain that they truly believed that Africans were every bit as capable of maintaining and sustaining advanced technological civilizations as Europeans.

The question is: how many human beings will have to die by starvation and mass slaughter in America, Africa, and Europe before they consider the possibility that they might be wrong?  Based on how long it took the same sort of people to begin considering that perhaps communism was not, in fact, capable of economically outperforming capitalism, my estimate would be around 250 million.

It is an interesting question to direct towards my critics, though.  Is there any number of deaths caused by starvation and mass slaughter in a five-year period as a result of the structural breakdown of society in one or more countries that would convince you to at least consider my time-to-civilization hypothesis?  If so, how many?


Rejecting the Lie

A few people, both sympathetic and otherwise, have asked me why I am willing to hold and defend such controversial and upsetting opinions as I have done of late.  And providing more evidence that rabbits simply do not have the capacity to understand not-rabbits, the SFWA is absolutely rife with various theories concerning my supposed mental instability.

After all, who but a deranged lunatic would think to challenge the received wisdom of the warren’s long-accepted consensus goodthink?

As it happens, the reason is fairly straightforward.  If you will not stand up for the truth when pressed, you will not stand up for the Truth when persecuted.  Now, I may be wrong about the process of civilizational development and the extended period of time I believe it requires to fully transform tribes of primitive savages into an advanced and civilized culture; I have no problem changing my mind when a compelling case contra my position has been made.  I have, as the regulars here know, done precisely that with regards to free trade and open borders, among other things.  But I have not seen one single person, not one, even attempt to demonstrate that I am incorrect in any way.

I’ve seen rants, I’ve seen outrage, I’ve seen anger, I’ve seen insults, and I’ve seen assertions that certain subjects are beyond debate. What I have not seen is anyone make a case, let alone a coherent or compelling one, that opposes the logic and observations I have presented.  This is because the Lie cannot compete with the Truth, it can only attempt to obscure it and silence those who dare to speak it.

But the Lie never wins in the end.  The ongoing controversy somehow reminded me of this passage from Panzer Commander, a war memoir written by one of Rommel’s favorite officers, Col. Hans von Luck, which I found moving in the way it showed how even enemies at war can find common ground in the light of the Truth.  More importantly, it shows how even a rage that burns hotter and more violently than the rage of the SFWA’s delusional members cannot destroy the hunger of the human spirit for truth and Truth alike.

“Smolensk looked as though it had been abandoned. Destruction in the industrial quarters and of the bridges over the Dnieper was immense. In the midst of the ruins, Smolensk cathedral pointed to the sky. It appeared largely unharmed. I followed the women and the old men and as I entered the cathedral, was deeply impressed by its beauty. It looked intact. The altar was adomed; burning candles and many icons richly embellished with gold bathed the interior in a festive light.

As I went up to the altar with my companions, an old man, poorly dressed and with a flowing beard, spoke to me in broken German.

“Gospodin officer, I am a pope who used to preach here before the Lenin-Stalin era; I have been in hiding now for many years, scraping a living as a shoemaker. Now you have liberated our city. May I say a first mass in this cathedral?”


“How is it,” I asked, “that your cathedral is in such good condition?” His answer surprised me. America in tsarist times bought the church and all its treasures “Immediately after the Revolution, Russians who had emigrated from the Russians who, at the time, were in urgent need of American dollars. The cathedral is American property, which is why everything is-almost-unchanged.” 

I have never been able to verify his statement, but it was not very important to me. Without referring to HQ, I gave the pope permission to celebrate mass the next day, for which he wanted to bring in an additional pope.

The following day, I went to Smolensk again, having informed the divisional commander in the meantime; as a precaution, I took along an armored patrol.


The sight that met our eyes when we arrived was breathtaking.


The square in front of the cathedral was full of people moving slowly toward the entrance. With my orderly officer, I jostled my way forward. Already, there was not a corner left in the cathedral in which people were not standing, sitting, or kneeling. We remained standing to one side to avoid disturbing the service by our presence.


I was not familiar with the Russian Orthodox ritual, but the ceremony that now began drew me more and more under its spell.


Invisible behind the altar, one of the two popes began with a monotone chant, which was answered by a choir of eight voices standing in front of the altar. The chanting of the precentor and the choir filled the vast space of the church. The acoustics gave the impression that the chanting came from above, from heaven.

The people fell on their knees and prayed. All had tears in their eyes. For them, it was the first mass for more than twenty years. My companion and I were greatly moved.”

In rejecting NK Jemisin’s call for reconciliation within the SFWA, I declared there can be no reconciliation between the observant and the delusional.  Still less can there be any compromise between the Truth and the Lie.

The liars can ban the services. They can revoke memberships, they can deny access, they can reject publications, they can close their eyes, and they can put their hands over their ears. But one thing they cannot do is make their lies real.  And sometimes, it is necessary to imitate the marshwiggle, stick one’s hand into the fire, and raise a stink capable of penetrating their illusions.


Anti-racism and the Law of Unintended Consequences

Even Barack Obama appears to be aware that racism is not the credible culprit for the greater challenges facing Africa and Africans today, according to this 2009 article, which, for some reason, popped up today on The Telegraph’s Most Shared:

Ahead of a visit to Ghana at the weekend, he said: “Ultimately, I’m a big believer that Africans are responsible for Africa.

“I
think part of what’s hampered advancement in Africa is that for many
years we’ve made excuses about corruption or poor governance, that this
was somehow the consequence of neo-colonialism, or the West has been
oppressive, or racism – I’m not a big – I’m not a believer in excuses.

Mr
Obama, the son of a Kenyan, added: “I’d say I’m probably as
knowledgeable about African history as anybody who’s occupied my office.
And I can give you chapter and verse on why the colonial maps that were
drawn helped to spur on conflict, and the terms of trade that were
uneven emerging out of colonialism.

“And
yet the fact is we’re in 2009,” continued the US president. “The West
and the United States has not been responsible for what’s happened to
Zimbabwe’s economy over the last 15 or 20 years.

“It
hasn’t been responsible for some of the disastrous policies that we’ve
seen elsewhere in Africa. And I think that it’s very important for
African leadership to take responsibility and be held accountable.”

This touches on what I’ve written previously concerning the grand transocietal challenges posed by the time-to-civilization hypothesis.  The problem faced by the equalitarian crowd is that due to the civil rights movement in the USA and the independence movement in Africa, whites largely shed what Kipling once described as “the White Man’s Burden” and generally did the best they could to remove themselves from proximity to, and responsibility for, African-Americans and Africans.  In addition to the socially deleterious effects of the US and European welfare systems, this global racial disengagement appears to have largely removed the civilizational restraints that were previously imposed upon the various African communities against their will.

Moreover, the Caribbean immigration into Britain and the African immigration into the European continent created a situation where millions of Europeans came into contact with Africans for the first time in history.  There are three reasons that Europeans are much more open about the qualitative behavioral differences between Europeans and Africans than white Americans; the first is that there is no legacy of slavery to obscure and excuse the differences or inspire white guilt. The second is that, in Europe, it is almost impossible to not notice the vast difference in the crime rates between the various populations.  The third is that African-Americans are simply less African; nearly all African-Americans are either of Yoruba, Mandenka, Bantu, San, or Blaka descent, and they are on average 22 percent white.

I talk to two European policemen from time to time at the gym.  Both have told me that, aside from the occasional car crash, they spend all their time dealing with crime committed by Africans.  Not part of it, or most of it, but ALL of it.  I suspect that is a slight exaggeration, but not by much. Even I noticed, for example, that in a very small town where everyone knows everyone and there is virtually no crime, the arrival of a fairly small number of African “refugees” soon resulted in a large number of apartment burglaries and a bomb being used to access the money in an ATM machine.

Nor are Europeans inclined to tolerate such behavior.  Six months later, I was walking through the center of that town and realized that nearly all of the Africans I’d seen before were gone.  Deported.

It used to be at least potentially credible to blame racism for black social pathology when whites were, quite literally, systematically oppressing blacks, both in the USA and in Africa.  But the inescapable conclusion, if one looks at a broad measure of social health measures for individuals and communities over the time since African liberation took place, is that with a few exceptions, oppressive paternalism was genuinely in the objective interest of black individuals and communities alike.  I am not saying that it was right, or even justified, for Europeans and White Americans to have engaged in that oppressive paternalism, I’m merely pointing out that it appears to have been effective in terms of rendering those societies more functional, and, more importantly, sustainable in the long term.

Now, being a libertarian, I do not accept the idea that a cognitive or racial or aristocratic or scientific elite has any right or responsibility to rule over the non-elite, regardless of how disastrously hoi polloi may choose to govern itself.  The fact that post-colonial Nigeria can no longer feed itself and is producing 80 percent less in some agricultural sectors than it was when it became independent in 1960, (when it had 45 million people compared to 170 million now), is not anyone’s problem but Nigeria’s… at least not so long as international borders are maintained and immigration is not permitted.

The increasingly dangerous Nigerian situation illustrates the large scale human tragedy that is almost certainly bound to take place so long as it is widely believed that the partially civilized are capable of maintaining an advanced civilization on their own.  Not even the most firmly equalitarian individual believes that the mostly savage are capable of doing so; no one is selling nuclear power plants and satellites to Papua New Guinea.  In such cases, people are content to support intervention in a paternal manner, as they once did in Africa, and to labor to prevent the savages from burning sorcerers, engaging in constant tribal warfare, and eating each other’s brains.  But it is, at the very least, possible that the partially civilized are no more able to maintain advanced technological societies in the medium-to-long term on their own than the uncivilized.  The evidence tends to suggest that this is probably the case although we will not know with any degree of certainty until large scale societal collapses begin to occur.

I fully understand that what I am observing here flies in the face of more than sixty years of firmly held belief that independence and liberation would cause Africa to flourish, and that desegregation, civil rights, and black empowerment would enable the black community in America to better conform to the behavioral norms of the white community.  But that has not turned out to be the case, and indeed, advances in genetic science has increasingly tended to confirm many of those old 19th century beliefs concerning the importance of seeming superficialities such as cranial capacity and brain size, which are almost surely linked to the observably shorter time preferences that are so reliably disastrous with regards to economic decisions and social behavior alike.

I hope the reader will understand that I am neither advocating a return to paternalistic oppression nor claiming that one’s humanity is dependent upon one’s place upon the civilizational scale; there are certainly no shortage of whites who are observably post-civilized and whose behavior is increasingly feral in comparison with the behavior of their grandparents 50 years ago.  I am merely, in the same way that I raised concerns about the global financial system in 2002, six years before the crisis, observing that the failure of the equalitarian race model looks to have the potential for considerably more global trauma and human tragedy than was experienced during and after the global financial crisis of 2008.

I don’t have any solutions for this.  I don’t even have any specific recommendations, other than to immediately stop the mass migrations that will only make it vastly more difficult for the advanced societies to assist the less advanced ones when the crises arise. I’m only beginning to think about these patterns in a manner that might allow me to eventually develop some sort of metric to utilize in the way that I use Z1 credit to track the status of the US economy.

Most of those who consider themselves to be “anti-racist” will, no doubt, refuse to consider these readily observable facts until their consequences become undeniable.  But just as the “anti-fascists” have been seen to behave in a counter-productive and unexpectedly fascist manner, perhaps the smarter “anti-racists” will at least consider entertaining the possibility that they are not, by virtue of their ideological purity, rendered intrinsically immune from the Law of Unintended Consequences.


The extent of Facebook spying

Or, at least, this is what they’re willing to admit to for the present:

For the six months ending December 31, 2012, the total number of
user-data requests Facebook received from any and all government
entities in the U.S. (including local, state, and federal, and including
criminal and national security-related requests) – was between 9,000
and 10,000. These requests run the gamut – from things like a local
sheriff trying to find a missing child, to a federal marshal tracking a
fugitive, to a police department investigating an assault, to a national
security official investigating a terrorist threat. The total number of
Facebook user accounts for which data was requested pursuant to the
entirety of those 9-10 thousand requests was between 18,000 and 19,000
accounts.

And, of course, the fact that they’re handing over about 40,000 accounts per year doesn’t eliminate the NSA’s widely rumored backdoor access.


PZ tries to cover his ample posterior

Our favorite professional biologist is blushing behind his beard.  He knows he was caught out, so now he’s trying to make up for it by quickly posting again in order to claim that I’m capitalizing improperly.  Never mind that he completely exposed his chunky backside by completely failing to grasp the reference to human subspecies rather than species.

Pure what? What is a “pure” human? Every single person on this planet belongs to the same identical species, Homo sapiens,
so his distinctions by differences in alleles is irrelevant. I must
also mention that his habit of capitalizing the binomial name is a bit
irritating. We teach a class in science writing here that hammers on a
lot of the scientific conventions, and we literally tell our students
that one of the first signs you’re dealing with someone who doesn’t know
basic biology is that they get the punctuation wrong.

The existence of individual variants, even regional patterns, is an
expected aspect of the genetic complement of a population. A species is
not ever assumed to be genetically homogeneous, so it’s ridiculous to
point to one member with a particular admixture of genes within a group
and say they’re more a member of the group than someone else with a
slightly different genetic complement. It’s pure typological thinking. Theodore Beale has a crude version of
19th century biology (to be generous) rattling around in his head, and
he thinks it makes sense.

The amusing thing here is that PZ doesn’t realize that he’s denying evolution by natural selection here.  Notice that when push comes to shove, the left-wing scientist will throw his science overboard rather than surrender his religious devotion to progressive propaganda.

I’m assuming Myers is not actually dumb enough to fail to grasp the distinction between species and subspecies, so what he’s doing here is playing games by conflating the two in an attempt to gloss over his errors.  I never said anything about “pure human”.  I referred to “pure Homo sapiens sapiens“.  What does that mean?  It means not Homo erectus.  It means not Homo floriensus.  And it also means not Homo sapiens sapiens mixed with Homo neanderthalensis or Homo denisova.

This is a very good example of what I mean when I say that correctly applied logic is capable of trumping credentialed expertise.  Appealing to punctuation in a futile attempt to convince third parties that he really does know what he’s talking about after an error of this magnitude only underlines how haplessly inept Myers is. 


Mailvox: the undead corpse

FeministX offers her condolences, rather less sarcastically than I would have expected:

Vox, I can see that your membership in SFWA was meaningful and important to you. I am sorry that you are being sidelined from an organization that was valuable to you because you expressed an intellectual opinion. I know this must be very frustrating because even good arguments will not help you gain understanding from your opponents.

Thank you.  I very much enjoyed SFWA back in the day, and having the opportunity to get to know writers such as Gordon Dickson, Joel Rosenberg, David Feintuch, Lois McMaster Bujold, Pat Wrede, and Raymond Feist.  I belonged to it for nine years without so much as exchanging a cross word with anyone.  Even then, however, there were some signs that the equalitarians in their midst were fitfully stirring and seeking to take control of the organization from those they derided, and still deride, as “a bunch of beardy old middle-class middle-American guys”.

Looking at the organization now makes you think of seeing your cousin lurching toward you with his hands outstretched, his throat gashed open and his head lolling down on his chest, moaning “braaaains”!  It’s rather ghastly.