Failing to note the connection

I thought this passage by Max Hastings about Archduke Franz Ferdinand was interesting for several reasons:

The Archduke’s political and social views were conservative and vigorously expressed. After attending Edward VII’s 1910 funeral in London, he wrote home deploring the boorishness of most of his fellow sovereigns, and the alleged impertinence of some politicians present, notable among them ex-US president Theodore Roosevelt. It is sometimes suggested that Franz Ferdinand was an intelligent man. Even if this was so, like so many royal personages into modern times, he was corrupted by position, which empowered him to express opinions unenlightened even by contemporary standards.

He loathed Hungarians, telling the Kaiser: ‘the so-called noble, gentlemanly Magyar is a most infamous, anti-dynastic, lying, unreliable fellow’. He regarded southern Slavs as sub-humans, referring to the Serbians as ‘those pigs’. He hankered after recovering Lombardy and Venetia, lost to Italy in his lifetime, for the Hapsburg Empire. Visiting Russia in 1891, Franz Ferdinand declared that its autocracy offered ‘an admirable model’. Tsar Nicholas II recoiled from Franz Ferdinand’s intemperance, especially on racial matters. Both the Archduke and his wife were strongly Catholic, favouring Jesuits and professing hostility towards Freemasons, Jews and liberals. Such was Sophie’s religious fervour that in 1901 she led two hundred fashionable women on a Catholic march through Vienna.

The Archduke nonetheless cherished one prudent conviction: while many Austrians, notably including army chief of staff Gen. Conrad von Hötzendorf, detested Russia and welcomed the prospect of a battlefield showdown with the Tsar, Franz Ferdinand dissented. He was determined, he said repeatedly, to avoid a clash of arms. Desiring a ‘concord of emperors’, he wrote: ‘I shall never lead a war against Russia. I shall make sacrifices to avoid it. A war between Austria and Russia would end either with the overthrow of the Romanovs or with the overthrow of the Habsburgs – or perhaps the overthrow of both.’

He once wrote to Berchtold: ‘Excellency! Don’t let yourself be influenced by Conrad – ever! Not an iota of support for any of his yappings at the Emperor! Naturally he wants every possible war, every kind of hooray! rashness that will conquer Serbia and God knows what else … Through war he wants to make up for the mess that’s his responsibility at least in part. Therefore: let’s not play Balkan warriors ourselves. Let’s not stoop to this hooliganism. Let’s stay aloof and watch the scum bash in each other’s skulls. It’d be unforgivable, insane, to start something that would pit us against Russia.’

I find it remarkable that 100 years later, so many people are still more troubled by the idea that one man might consider a group of people to be scum than by the deaths of tens of millions. The notion that progressive politics and equalitarian sensibilities somehow equate to world peace, or even regional peace, simply do not stand up to historical scrutiny.

That “nonetheless” is false. Hastings fails to see the connection between Ferdinand’s racial intemperance and his reluctance to go to war, just as today’s multiculturalists and diversity advocates fail to see how their policies are leading to bloodshed that may make the trenches of World War I look mild in comparison.

It is the idea of inevitable progress that has reliably led to these massive blood-spillings. One notes that presently, in America, it is the neocons and the left-liberals who are keen to start a war with Russia, ignoring the mistakes made by the archduke’s peers a century ago.


The definitive IQ list

I thought it might be useful to have a single place where confirmed IQs of various individuals can be listed. With the exception of the estimate for Barack Obama (whose IQ can only be estimated due to his refusal to release his academic records), only reliably reported IQs based on objective measures should be listed here; remember that the PSAT/SAT only served as an IQ proxy until 1994 and cannot be used to estimate IQ after that date. An IQ score with a plus sign after it indicates a known minimum IQ for the individual. A minus score indicates a known ceiling.

Also keep in mind that various awards and membership in various groups have direct IQ implications. Anyone in Mensa has a 132+ IQ. A perfect pre-1994 SAT score indicates a 168+ IQ. Anyone who is not a National Merit Semifinalist has an IQ below 140. Anyone who is not a National Merit Outstanding Participant has an IQ below 130.

168+ Paul Allen, Microsoft founder
168 Norman Schwarzkopf, U.S. Army general
167 Bill Gates, Microsoft founder
166 James Woods, actor
160 Rush Limbaugh, broadcaster
151 Vox Day, game designer
140+ Hillary Clinton, U.S. senator
140+ PZ Myers, science blogger
140 John C. Wright, author 
140 Bill Simmons, the Sports Guy
138 David Robinson, NBA
134 Al Gore, U.S. Vice-President
133 John McCain, U.S. senator
127 George W. Bush, U.S. President
123 John Kerry, U.S. senator
123 Richard Feynman, physicist
116 Barack Obama, U.S. President
103 Bill Bradley, U.S. senator

If you know of sources showing the IQs of other public figures, please put them in the comments along with the relevant citation or a link to the source. This is not for the discussion of the IQ scores of any non-public figures, so please resist the urge to talk about yourself as any such comments will be deleted.


He doth protest too much

It is richly ironic that Jimmy Wales, of all people, is complaining about the EU laws suppressing the truth on the Internet:

Speaking at Wikipedia’s annual Wikimania conference in London today, Wales said: “History is a human right and one of the worst things that a person can do is attempt to use force to silence another.

“I’ve been in the public eye for quite some time; some people say good things and some people say bad things. That’s history and I would never ever use any kind of legal process like this to try to suppress the truth. I think that’s deeply immoral.”

I can’t think of any non-state organization that suppresses the truth as much as Wikipedia.  The system that Wales has set up ruthlessly and relentlessly suppresses the truth under its false rubric of requiring a “reliable source”.

Don’t take my word for it. Look at the Wikipedia page about me. Does that describe my views at all? Are the totality of my views really limited to little more than a feud with John Scalzi and my expulsion from SFWA? Do I have no opinions on economics, politics, philosophy, literature, and religion despite having written books on the former and the latter? It’s telling, too, to observe that if the so-called feud and the expulsion are the only significant aspects of my views, there is no mention of the connection between the former and the latter.

Now, here are my views on the various schools of economics:

The Austrian school of economics presently provides Man’s best understanding of the field of economics, but the core mechanism for its business cycle is incorrect. In place of the shift between consumer goods and capital goods, it is the limits of demand for credit that is the causal factor of the boom-bust cycle.

Those are my actual views on the subject. That is the absolute truth. Post them on Wikipedia and they’ll be suppressed within 24 hours even though most of my other “views” are directly taken from the “reliable source” that is my own writing.

UPDATE: Speaking of the so-called feud, I thought this Twitter exchange between one ClarkHat and John Scalzi was illuminating. McRapey clearly doesn’t grasp (or more likely, being a gamma male, is unable to publicly admit), that he is a successful, but mediocre SF writer, not even when his book was picked up for a television series by the distinguished network famous for Sharknado and Werewolves vs Strippers:

CLARKHAT: Would you care to actually respond to my comments that 1) your writing is mediocre 2) your rewards >> your merit

JOHN SCALZI: Sure: 1. You’re wrong, 2. You’re wrong but even if you were right so what? Hope that helps.

CH: suggests a theory I hadn’t considered: you really DON’T understand the delta between your work & great work

JS: Your problem is you have really no understanding of my psychology. Which is fine, but doesn’t make you less wrong. I don’t mind you being wrong, however, as it has no effect on what I do or how I do it. Go on being wrong!

You and I have no disagreement in you sharing your thoughts on what is great writing. Do! I think that’s a fine thing.

CH: But this is again Blue Model reframing: “your thoughts”. My pt is not about “my truth”; it is about objective artistic truth. I am not saying “**I** prefer Mieville over @scalzi”; I am saying “objective standards exist; try some Mieville”.

JS: “Objective artistic truth.” Ooooh, I have the giggles now. DO GO ON.

CH: “You think Davinci’s David is better than my paper mache puppet of Donald Trump? That’s just, like, your opinion, man.

JS: This objective art hypothesis of yours is ADORABLE. And explains many things, i.e., “What I like is OBJECTIVELY great, so there.”

That’s the amusing thing about McRapey. For all his vaunted rhetorical skills granted by virtue of BACHELOR’S DEGREE IN PHILOSOPHY OF LANGUAGE, he doesn’t grasp that he can’t assert that ClarkHat is wrong about him being a mediocre writer while simultaneously denying the concept of objective standards in art.

If all art is subjective, then Scalzi is a mediocre writer by virtue of ClarkHat subjectively declaring him to be so. And if all art is objective, then he is a mediocre writer by virtue of the comparison of his work with that of other, better writers. There is no way that Scalzi can correctly declare ClarkHat to be wrong, as he nevertheless repeatedly does.


Will she write the story?

A female journalist gets a bigger story than she bargained for:

The woman was reporting on illegal immigration from France to Britain and police believe the attack was carried by some of the men she intended to write about in the northern France port.

Detectives described the attack as being of a “particularly brutal nature”….

The victim, who cannot be named for legal reasons, was described as “a London student who had travelled to France to highlight problems surrounding clandestine immigration.”

I have little sympathy for this woman, and none at all if she fails to honestly tell her fellow Brits about what happened to her at the hands of these poor immigrants who are just seeking a better life in Britain.  This is why: “this is believed to be the first time that a journalist trying
to highlight their plight has been attacked.” 

If the damned pro-immigration press would be more honest about the terrible cost of immigration to the native population, I tend to doubt she would have traveled there to “highlight their plight” in the first place.


4GW and Gaza II

First, I will note that the IDF estimates concerning the difficulty of conquering and de-militarizing Gaza were not dissimilar to my own observations:

The Cabinet was reportedly shown a presentation in the course of the war, outlining the IDF’s prediction of what taking control of Gaza would involve. According to the military’s estimates, conquering Gaza would take months and ridding it of all weapons would take five years. The cost would be hundreds of soldiers killed and 10 billion shekels.

That’s why the Hama model, where speed is of the essence, was never a serious option for Israel. That leaves the de-escalation model. The problem? How to de-escalate with a seemingly implacable enemy mixed in amongst a hostile population.

  1. Stop providing the non-combatants with more reasons to fight. I don’t know the exact ratio, but every single time a civilian is killed, that generates between one and ten new enemy combatants. Israel says it has killed 453 Hamas militants out of 1,498 Palestinian fatalities; that ratio means it is almost certainly creating more future combatants than it is killing current ones. That means no more airstrikes or artillery. They are counterproductive.
  2. Outsource the occupation. Egypt desperately needs food and money, and it has no shortage of Arab soldiers who are not in the least bit sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood or Hamas. That’s where some of those 10 billion shekels should be spent. Establish a number of outposts with well-paid Egyptian soldiers to provide basic policing and human intelligence. Support those outposts with rapid response IDF teams who will go in at night to act on the operable intelligence gathered in a manner essentially invisible to the local population. Immediately send those soldiers who are corrupt or show an inclination for violence, indiscipline, or being subverted back to Egypt and a big reduction in pay.
  3. Flood the civilian population with food and consumer goods, preferably distributed by the Egyptians and Fatah.
  4. Bring the civilian wounded to Israeli hospitals, give them first-rate care, and financially compensate the families of all civilian casualties.
  5. End the siege. Yes, Hamas will claim victory. See #7.
  6. Convince Egypt to accept small groups of families of those who are working with them the right to settle in an area of Egypt for which Israel will pay for the development. Deputy Speaker Feiglin wants to build another Jaffa, and his instincts are right, but it cannot be within Gaza itself. A place of refuge from Hamas will be needed, and it must be outside Israel. Protect it with Iron Dome.
  7. Ignore the militants. Don’t seek to talk to them, don’t pay any attention to their ceasefires or requests, don’t complain about their actions, and don’t respond to their PR salvos. The war at the moral level is won by actions, not words.

Remember, the idea of the de-escalation model is not to defeat the enemy, but rather to convince the bulk of the population it has no reason to fight and thereby isolate the militants, who can then be gradually picked off and made weaker over time. Due to the Israeli-Arab issue, the IDF probably can’t ever hope to win over the population by itself, but its Arab proxies could reasonably expect to do so. Israel probably can’t ever “win” in the medium term without resorting to measures the world would deem absolutely unacceptable, but it can hope to achieve relative safety and security for both sides.

It may sound counterintuitive, but Israel cannot achieve this relative peace as long as it is unwilling to accept more casualties than it causes. There are admittedly numerous flaws with this plan, chief among them the ability of the Egyptian soldiers to remain calm and disciplined in the face of the inevitable provocation. But it is much more likely to lead to success than the futile 2GW pound-and-ground approach.

Because 4GW is a process that resists conclusive engagements, 4GW counterinsurgency tactics must accept that reality and abandon any notion of seeking them. Such efforts are not only doomed to failure, but will usually make the situation worse in the long term. 4GW is based on the death-by-a-thousand-cuts model, so the correct way to fight back is to increase your ability to cut the other guy while reducing his ability to cut you.

Anyhow, those are just some thoughts from a complete military non-expert. And I think that’s enough about Zion for the time being. It’s time to turn our attention to the more serious conflict brewing in Eastern Europe.


Additional ilkotism

The gentleman who had a job available for a member of the Dread Ilk has a few more on offer:

Thanks for posting the job opportunity. The turnout was pretty impressive. I am also coming across other opportunities that I am hooking Ilk up with. I have another one for you to post, if you are still inclined. We are looking for three more outside sales guys on the West Coast. These would be some spectrum of entry level to experienced.

As before, if you’re interested, shoot me an email with JOB2 in the subject and I will pass it on to the relevant party.


A new Standout SF Author

esr announces his first science fiction sale:

One of the minor frustrations of my life, up to now, is that though I can sell as much nonfiction as I care to write, fiction sales had eluded me. What made this particularly irksome is that I don’t have only the usual ego reasons for wanting to succeed. I love the science fiction genre and owe it much; I want to pay that forward by contributing back to it.

It therefore gives me great satisfaction to announce that I have made my first SF sale, a short (3.5kword) piece of military SF titled “Sucker Punch” set on a U.S. aircraft carrier during the Taiwan Straits Action of 2037…. the head guy at Castalia House (the infamous Vox Day, wearing another hat) informed me of an upcoming project: an anthology called Riding The Red Horse intended to reprise the format of Jerry Pournelle’s old There Will Be War compendia. That is, a mix of military SF and military futurology, written by a mix of SF authors and serving military personnel, with few technical experts added for flavor.

“Want to write a fiction piece for us?” said Mr. Castalia House. “I can’t write fiction for shit, or at least all my attempts to sell it have failed,” I replied.

“Well, what about non-fiction?” I couldn’t think of a premise; then, suddenly, I could. Which is how I wound up researching and writing a
fact piece called “Battlefield Lasers and the Death of Airpower”.

Congratulations to Mr. Raymond; a link to his blog, Armed and Dangerous, has been duly added on the right sidebar. He is one of a number of excellent expert contributors to RIDING THE RED HORSE, which as he notes is intended to be the spiritual successor to the old THERE WILL BE WAR anthology series edited by Jerry Pournelle.

If – and only if – you are a published author of mil-SF, you may be interested to note we have two more fiction slots open. To inquire concerning a submission, send me an email with RED HORSE in the subject. Please note that we are not looking for any more first-time writers for this first volume; we are already set on that score. We’re also looking for one more non-fiction piece, particularly something related to Russia and the European theater. My original intention was to revive THERE WILL BE WAR and re-release the old anthologies as ebooks, since they are not available in that format. Although Mr. Pournelle was somewhat interested, we were unfortunately unable to make any progress in that direction and so we elected to create a new anthology series with a certain LTC of some notoriety at the helm.


Congratulations to John and John

Per John C. Wright:

I heard just this week from my agent and editor that, despite declining sales, Tor Books has agreed to published the penultimate and ultimate volume in the sexilogy (not what it sounds like; get your mind out of the gutter!) of the nonaward-winning Count to the Eschaton Sequence!

Re: John Scalzi:

Those who have been anxiously waiting for John Scalzi’s best-selling military scifi novel Old Man’s War to get a live-action adaptation won’t have to be waiting much longer. Syfy and Academy Award-nominated director Wolfgang Petersen will adapt the books for television as a series titled Ghost Brigades, after the second novel in the series.

You might remember that Paramount had originally purchased the rights to the Old Man’s War novel to make a movie, but those plans fell through. But don’t worry that this adaptation is going to skip the events of the first novel; as the author himself explains in a tongue-in-cheek self-Q&A on his website, “The series will pull elements from various books in the OMW universe in any event.” The title “Ghost Brigades” was used for the show instead of “Old Man’s War” simply because it sounded “sexier.”

I’m rather disappointed about one of these things, but possibly not the one you might think. While I personally dislike John Scalzi and consider him a fraud, a coward, and a mediocre, derivative novelist, I don’t wish him any ill. I genuinely believe he is rather well-suited for the medium of television, and based on my limited experience in the TV industry, his self-marketing tendencies may actually be on the modest side there.

No, you see, I was rather hoping to have Castalia pick up the rest of the Count to the Eschaton books. C’est la vie, a la prochaine fois. We have not yet reached the point where we can directly compete with Tor Books. But we will. Sooner or later.


Monsterboobz

David Futrelle is apparently a connoisseur of movies about violent homosexual pedophilia. One commenter notes:

David Futrelle has claimed that a photo of a 17 y.o. girl in a bikini or a tight pair of jeans is ‘child porn’. But a film containing nothing but graphic scenes of naked children as young as 14 being raped, mutilated, forced to eat faeces, tortured, and murdered, isn’t. Sums up what a disturbing psychopathic freak he is.

But let’s be fair and let the great defender of women’s suffrage speak for himself:

The movie in question is considered a classic. It’s not porn or torture porn. It’s on Netflix. I wrote about a censorship controversy involving it. I didn’t offer an assessment of the film itself.

Considered a classic? By whom, Hannibal Lector? This is how the movie he claims is “considered a classic” is described: “This grotesque sexploitation movie is officially banned in 15 different
countries, although, as stated above, it should undoubtedly be
automatically classed as the worst form of child pornography. Its
defenders claim that it makes an artistic statement about the
‘corruption of power over innocence and youth’. The abusers in the film
are portrayed as Italian wartime fascists who kidnap eight teenage boys
and girls and subject them to 120 days of grotesque sexual torture and
humiliation before murdering them.”

Sounds like a real classic. It also sounds like Futrelle would fit right in with the SFWA.


The Secret History of Psykosonik, part 0

I got an email from an old friend I hadn’t heard from in a long time last night. It turned out that he’d saved the tapes from our old band and converted them to MP3 about ten years ago. After Big Chilly’s younger brother bought an Ensoniq keyboard, the four of us spent summer evenings in 1987 and 1988 in the basement of Big Chilly’s house learning how to use our instruments.

Mostly because they were so simple and all four of us could more or less sing, we started out by learning early Depeche Mode songs such as Just Can’t Get Enough and Dreaming of Me. We didn’t have a four-track recorder, so everything was recorded live with the programmed drum machines; our microphones were cheap Radio Shack mike sans effects, except for the echo from the basement walls, unless we ran one through one of Big Chilly’s two guitar effects. We covered everything from Depeche Mode and New Order to Shriekback and Camouflage.

It’s all cheesy as hell, but the two times we played live, once at a graduation party and once at a nightclub in downtown Minneapolis, we went over exceedingly well, I think because at the time people didn’t expect to see live electronic music from local bands. They would look intrigued with the first two songs, then New Order would win them over and get things hopping. It’s funny, but even listening to these songs for the first time in 20 years, I can still remember my harmonies. And remember that Horn always set his bloody mike too high.

The second summer, our youngest member decided that we should take the leap into writing our own music. Sharp had a rather unusual perspective on life, so the first song he wrote was Dance on the Waters, about a grouper in love with a little girl it sees on the beach from underneath the waves. It’s far too long, it’s musically naive and incoherent, rhythmically crude, and lyrically absurd, but in retrospect, it has just enough indications of genuine talent buried underneath the nonsense that it’s unsurprising he went on to enjoy the most musical success of the four.

Most of the songs we played, and most of those we wrote, are better lost to the sands of time. But a few of them do show how we were learning how to compose proper songs. One that I’d completely forgotten about, Seasons Pass, is interesting for the way it shows how we’d gone from covering Depeche Mode songs to creating our own Depeche Mode-like melodies.  Sure, it’s terrible, (that line about the streets of St. Paul, ye cats!) but the four of us were between 18 and 19 at the time and everybody has to learn somehow. In You’re So Graceful, which was written towards the end of that second summer, the musical themes have started to become a little more complex and you can hear that we were beginning to grow out of the Depeche Mode influence.

We ended up going in musically opposite directions, as I founded Psykosonik with Paul Sebastien while Big Chilly joined the Bison Chips and Sharp went on to form the great “microphone band” Face (whose interpretation of techno is considerably different), but I thought perhaps some of you might find it interesting to go back to the very beginning and hear how it all started.