Travel ban? Who needs a travel ban?

Vomiting Africans dying on planes is an everyday occurrence, right?

A plane from Nigeria landed at JFK Airport Thursday with a male passenger aboard who had died during the flight after a fit of vomiting — and CDC officials conducted a “cursory” exam before announcing there was no Ebola and turning the corpse over to Port Authority cops to remove, Rep. Peter King said on Thursday.

The congressman was so alarmed by the incident — and by what he and employees see as troubling Ebola vulnerabilities at JFK — that he fired off a letter to the federal Department of Homeland Security demanding more training and tougher protocols for handling possible cases there.

The unnamed, 63-year-old passenger had boarded an Arik Air plane out of Lagos, Nigeria, on Wednesday night, a federal law enforcement source said. During the flight, the man had been vomiting in his seat, the source said. Some time before the plane landed, he passed away. Flight crew contacted the CDC, federal customs officials and Port Authority police, who all boarded the plane at around 6 a.m. as about 145 worried passengers remained on board, the source said.

I have the impression that if Ebola starts to spread, people are going to be very, very angry indeed.

As the Ebola crisis surges to the top issue on the minds of Americans,
a new poll finds that 82 percent of those following the issue closely
want to quarantine anybody who has recently traveled to the
virus-stricken nations. The Economist/YouGov poll found that women are
more concerned than men and would refuse entry to anybody from those
nations. Just 16 percent would allow them into the nation.

If you want change, scare the women. This is the immutable law of broad-spectrum democracy.


Ebola Curve Week 41

The Ebola curve may not be getting steeper. From the Ebola Response Roadmap Situation Report, 15 October 2014.

A total of 8997 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been reported in seven affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Spain, and the United States of America) up to the end of 12 October. There have been 4493 deaths.

Data for epidemiological week 41 are incomplete, with missing data for 12 October from Liberia. This reflects the challenging nature of data gathering in countries with widespread and intense EVD transmission. These challenges remain particularly acute in Liberia, where there continues to be a mismatch between the relatively low numbers of new cases reported through official clinical surveillance systems on one hand, and reports from laboratory staff and first responders of large numbers of new cases on the other. Efforts are ongoing to reconcile different sources of data, and to rapidly scale-up capacity for epidemiological data gathering throughout each country with widespread and intense transmission.

It is clear, however, that the situation in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone is deteriorating, with widespread and persistent transmission of EVD. An increase in new cases in Guinea is being driven by a spike in confirmed and suspected cases in the capital, Conakry, and the nearby district of Coyah. In Liberia, problems with data gathering make it hard to draw any firm conclusions from recent data.

The good news is that the reported number of total cases are considerably shy of the 9,862 total cases that I calculated last week would indicate that the outbreak was getting out of control. The bad news is that the 8,997 cases reported do not include those that are are missing from Liberia. So, due to the lack of accurate reporting, it’s not safe to assume that the outbreak is already beginning to burn itself out, even though the number of new cases does not appear to be growing at the previous doubling rate any longer.


Why economists ignore private debt

Actually, from most of the models I’ve seen, mainstream economists completely ignore public debt as well. After all, since credit owed is (mostly) endogenous, what does it matter how much Peter owes Paul? That’s the main reason so few of them saw 2008 coming. The article is focused on Australia, but it is globally applicable.

There is a reason why mainstream economists ignore private debt while focusing intently upon public debt. Neoclassical economic models assume markets operate in a static state of equilibrium, but these models are based on a slew of preposterous assumptions which are never met in the real world. The banking and financial system is modelled by assuming that money, debt and banks do not exist! The element of time is also removed, making it difficult for economists to understand the inter-temporal allocations of debt.

This is like an astronomer or astrophysicist building a model of our solar system absent the sun, moon and gravity – an inadequate framework that will inevitably produce glaring mistakes. By using a circular form of logic, private domestic and external debts are assumed to be the outcome of rationally-derived contracts, so the level of debt is deemed to be efficient by definition. In contrast, public debts are considered to be managed by ‘irrational’ government planners, who cannot make optimising decisions; a clear fallacy based on stereotypes of the competency of financial actors within the economy.

In the post-1970s era, neoliberal economic policy has dominated mainstream perspectives. A major goal of government has led to an unyielding mantra that public debts must be reduced by running surpluses where possible. The obsession with public debt and deficits has blindsided policymakers to the rapid accumulation of private debts. For instance, the severe mid-1970s recession was caused largely by the collapse of the dual commercial and residential real estate bubbles, inflated by sharply accelerating private debts, but the economics profession failed to take notice.

Unfortunately, this made no difference, with the 1981 Campbell Report advocating further deregulation of the banking and financial sector. By the time of the 1997 Wallis Report, neoclassical economists had the benefit of hindsight when examining the mid-1970s dual commercial and housing bubbles, the 1981 Sydney housing bubble, the 1987 stock market bubble and crash, the late 1980s dual commercial and housing bubbles, and the lead-up to the largest stock market bubble in Australian economic history, the Dot-Com era.

With Australia’s economic history littered with asset bubbles, irrational exuberance, recessions and depressions, what were the recommendations of the Wallis Report? More financial deregulation! Mainstream economists in Australia (and elsewhere) are wilfully blind to countervailing evidence which demonstrates the harms caused by financial deregulation.

The reason that financial deregulation is advocated becomes obvious: booming private debts enhance the power, profit and authority of the horde of private monopolists, usurers, speculators, rent seekers, free riders, financial robber barons, control frauds, inheritors and indolent rich.


It took them a while

But reality is beginning to penetrate even the thickest left-liberal skulls:

Ben Affleck joined Maher in talking about owning guns in order to protect their homes and their families.  Maher began the segment by talking about how the US is not protecting the environment, is failing to take Ebola seriously, and how “the Secret Service can’t even stop people from running across the lawn” at the White House. Affleck interjected: “They can’t just shoot someone on the lawn, that’s illegal… [But] they should have at least released the dogs.”

Maher then used Affleck’s comments as a springboard to launch into a short discussion on self-defense and the rights a private citizen has to defend himself and his property. He said: “In California, anyway, you can shoot an intruder in your home.”

Maher then looked at Affleck and said, “I mean, you have guns.” To which Affleck responded, “I do.” The audience grew quiet for a second and then roused up when Maher said, “So do I, and for that exact reason.” Maher added: “I’m not disarming unilaterally.”

Notice how discovering that they live in a world where danger has not, in fact, been legislated out of existence causes left-liberals like Ben Affleck, Bill Maher, and John Scalzi to rapidly about-face and purchase weaponry in order to defend themselves, their families, and their property. In like manner, they will abandon their vociferous feminism, racialism, immigrationism, and multiculturalism once they finally become attuned to the very real and present threats posed to themselves, their families, and their property.

Reality always demolishes false ideologies in the end. The core left-right question is whether one is capable of recognizing reality before the Grim Reaper is actually at one’s door.


Mailvox: which Squad Leader?

JS is curious about ASL:

Read about this game (again) in a GamerGate post today… Which set do you play?  I’m intrigued…I’d like to buy a kit and start playing. Time for a post for us inspiring ASL newbies! I like turn-based games (I own Supremacy, and even ported the board to Java…Very handy to have a seamless scroll when you control Siberia and Alaska!), but haven’t played detailed military rules since high school.

I own two sets of Squad Leader and two sets of Advanced Squad Leader as a consequence of the Hasbro acquisition panic of 1999 and Ender has a complete set of the Advanced Squad Leader Starter Kit. Right now, I mostly play ASLSK because we are methodically playing our way through that. I myself started with the ASL11 Defiance on Hill 30 scenario from Paratrooper, followed by ASL14 Silence that Gun. While I’d owned Squad Leader, Cross of Iron, and Crescendo of Doom since I was 10, I’d never actually played against an actual opponent because I didn’t know anyone willing to learn the rules.

Since then, I’ve played a Red Barricades campaign and took part in an eight-man game of Gold Beach, which was one of the better gaming experiences of my life. Ender was actually given his nickname by Big Chilly as a result of ASL, as he managed to beat me, fair and square, (albeit with the help of a 1 in 36 shot) in one of the first ASLSK scenarios he ever played. I usually win, as he’s too conservative in attack and doesn’t have the experience to deal with my 3GW tactics, but he’s learned that I tend to have trouble maintaining my focus once the game is well in hand and has taken advantage of that to steal a victory or two at the wire.

It’s a wonderful game, and if you take the Journals and Annuals into account, makes for great reading material; Chapter H alone is a comprehensive education in World War II fighting vehicles. Start with ASLSK #1, play through it, and then move on to #2 and #3 if you enjoy it. Then you’ll be ready to move up to the big league and the ASLRB.


Patient #2 in Dallas

The math just got worse:

A second health care worker at a Dallas hospital who provided care for the first Ebola patient diagnosed in the U.S. has tested positive for the disease, the Texas Department of State Health Services said Wednesday. The department said in a statement that the worker reported a fever Tuesday and was immediately isolated at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas. Health officials said the worker was among those who took care of Thomas Eric Duncan, who was diagnosed with Ebola after coming to the U.S. from Liberia. Duncan died Oct. 8.

The department said a preliminary Ebola test was conducted late Tuesday at a state public health laboratory in Austin, Texas, and came back positive during the night. Confirmatory testing was being conducted at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta…. Officials have said they don’t know how the first health worker, a nurse, became infected. But the second case pointed to lapses beyond how one individual may have donned and removed personal protective garb.

Two patients in the USA in Spain, two deaths, three health care worker infections. This is not reassuring. As I, and every other sane Westerner said at the time, infected aid workers should have been left to their fates in Africa, where they were infected.

UPDATE: The news just gets better:

 The CDC has announced that the second healthcare worker diagnosed with Ebola — now identified as Amber Joy Vinson of Dallas — traveled by air Oct. 13, the day before she first reported symptoms. The CDC is now reaching out to all passengers who flew on Frontier Airlines flight 1143 Cleveland to Dallas/Fort Worth. The flight landed at 8:16 p.m. CT. The CDC is asking all 132 passengers on the flight to call 1 800-CDC INFO.


Women in gaming: the historical reality

Although somewhat biased towards equalitarianism, this history of the general absence of women in gaming goes a long way towards putting #GamerGate into perspective:

The final roster of almost six hundred IFW members, tallied in March of 1973, contains only one recognizably female name, that of Elizabeth A. Parnell. By the end of the 1960s, Avalon Hill faced stiff competition from Jim Dunnigan’s wargames company Simulation Publication, Inc. (SPI), who published the widely-circulated magazine Strategy & Tactics. Dunnigan regularly sought feedback from his broad readership to tune the contents of his games and periodicals. It was not until 1971, however, that the feedback questionnaires in Strategy & Tactics began to inquire about gender. The first returns that summer (published in issue #28) indicated that 1% of those surveyed were female, though that number is perhaps inflated due to rounding. At the beginning of 1974, on the next iteration of the survey, Strategy & Tactics reported, “We asked how many female subscribers we have. The number is roughly one-half of 1%.” That article goes on to explain their survey methodology, which they believed reflected “over 10,000 different gamers,” a sum they credibly represented as the largest study group available to the industry.

That figure, that roughly one half of 1% of “gamers” were female, is borne out by other contemporary sources as well. The “Great Lakes Gamers Census” of January 1974, assembled by the Midwest Gaming Association, tabulates more than one thousand gamers in the Midwest. It contains five recognizably female names: Marie Cockrill, Anne Laumer, Denise Bonis, and then two couples: Mr. & Mrs. Linda Anderson, and Mr. and Mrs. Paul Pawlak. It was this overwhelmingly male community which was the target of contemporary periodicals branded for “gamers” like Gamers Guide.

How much attention were game developers reasonably supposed to pay to a group that made up less than one percent of their market? Notice that as with SFWA, it was the inclusion of fantasy that brought women into the mix. And in games, as in science fiction literature, the subsequent expansion caused the original pioneers to be largely pushed to the side:

The release of Dungeons & Dragons triggered a crucial intersection of two fandoms: wargames fandom and the group collectively known as science-fiction fandom, which included fantasy fans. This is significant because science-fiction fandom, while predominantly male, had far more gender diversity than wargames fandom. Exactly how much diversity has been a matter of some scholarly debate; a recent study suggests that as of 1960, science-fiction fandom was perhaps one-fifth female. Other data points show finer divisions: while subscribers to a hard science-fiction magazine like Analog might have been only one-tenth female, a survey of the Magazine of Fantasy and Science Fiction — which published many of the fantasy stories that inspired the creators of Dungeons & Dragons — revealed that around a third of its readership was female as of 1966. Fans of that era, most notably Diana Paxson, invented the Society for Creative Anachronism, a medieval recreation group which offered dramatically segregated, yet appealing, roles for male and female participants. However we measure it, science-fiction fandom attracted far more women than wargaming.

The big difference is that most male gamers understand and accept that, in the gaming hierarchy, they are third- or fourth-class citizens in gaming terms. The guy who plays Top Eleven respects that he is not considered as serious a gamer as Level 70 Elite Call of Duty player, who in turn understands that he’s not as serious as the average Eve Online player. Who, in turn, is not as serious as the wargamer, much less the monster wargamer. And even hard core wargamers tend to think that Advanced Squad Leader players are over-the-top. This hierarchy is simply recognition of the complexity involved in the game and the expertise required to master it.

Tell me that someone is an ASL player, and I immediately know that I’m dealing with a man who is intelligent, detail-oriented, patient, and capable of grasping a massive quantity of rules as well as mastering a considerable quantity of abstract concepts. Why? Because unless you possess those qualities, and possess them in abundance, you can’t even begin to play the game. The same is not true of a FIFA or Bejeweled player.

There is nothing, absolutely nothing, that prevents a woman from obtaining that high-level expertise. Any woman can buy War in Europe and start playing it tomorrow. Well, start setting it up tomorrow, at any rate. But some women appear to deeply resent that they are not granted the respect that comes from such hard-won mastery even though they have not put in the necessary effort to gain it. It is this petty resentment that sparked #GamerGate, as no wargamer is ever going to consider a Candy Crush Saga player his gaming peer. It is simply never going to happen, nor is there any reason why it should.

And as for the dearth of women on the development side, note that the very first female game design credit is for Battle of the Wilderness, published by SPI in 1975, only 62 years AFTER  men began designing wargames. I’m hardly ancient, and I have been playing wargames longer than women have been designing games at all.


Once, twice, three times a failure

They’re not called The Stupid Party for nothing:

Romney, the 2012 GOP presidential nominee and now the tacit head of the Republican Party, visited Iowa as part of a feverish nationwide tour designed to help the GOP take control of the Senate. He has insisted that he is not interested in running for president a third time. But his friends said a flurry of behind-the-scenes activity is nudging him to more seriously consider it.

Sometimes, people seriously ask me why I’m not a Republican. I usually just laugh. In part due to things like this. America has just staggered into its sixth year of the Obola-ridden Democratic administration, so naturally the Republicans are discussing whether to field a legacy, a loser, a lardass, or a legal immigrant.


Don’t like that math

The medical workers in Africa are going down:

International aid organization Doctors Without Borders said that 16 of its staff members have been infected with Ebola and nine of them have died. Speaking at a press conference in Johannesburg Tuesday, the head of Doctors Without Borders in South Africa Sharon Ekambaram said medical workers have received inadequate assistance from the international community.

But the bigger problem is the sheer number of people involved in UNSUCCESSFULLY treating victims in the West in both the USA:

About 70 staff members at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital were involved in the care of Thomas Eric Duncan after he was hospitalized, including a nurse now being treated for the same Ebola virus that killed the Liberian man who was visiting Dallas, according to medical records his family provided to The Associated Press. The size of the medical team reflects the hospital’s intense effort to save Duncan’s life, but it also suggests that many other people could have been exposed to the virus during Duncan’s time in an isolation unit.

And in Germany:

A United Nations medical worker who was infected with Ebola in Liberia has died despite “intensive medical procedures,” a German hospital said Tuesday. The St. Georg hospital in Leipzig said the 56-year-old man, whose name has not been released, died overnight of the infection. It released no further details and did not answer telephone calls. The man tested positive for Ebola on Oct. 6, prompting Liberia’s UN peacekeeping mission to place 41 staff members who had possibly been in contact with him under “close medical observation.”

So, 111 medical workers with the best medical technology at their disposal couldn’t successfully treat two patients, and at least one worker has already been infected. This does not bode well if the medical system has to deal with 10 or even 100 victims simultaneously.


Rethinking their strategy

The CDC belatedly admits the obvious:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Monday said it is starting to “rethink” its Ebola strategy after the first-ever US transmission of the virus put a “relatively large” number of healthcare workers at risk.

“We’re concerned, and unfortunately would not be surprised if we did see additional [Ebola] cases in healthcare workers who also provided care to the index patient,” CDC Director Tom Frieden said.

A nurse at Texas Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas was diagnosed with Ebola over the weekend, raising questions about the procedures that were followed when treating Thomas Eric Duncan. The nurse’s infection “doesn’t change the fact that it’s possible to take care of Ebola safely, but it does change, substantially, how we approach it,” Frieden said.

Notice that phrase: “it’s possible to take care of Ebola safely”. Possible. You are permitting Ebola victims to freely enter the USA because you MIGHT be able to safely take care of them?

They’ve already been wrong once. Who wants to bet his life that they’ve nailed it this time? They might have, but then again, perhaps not. What they need to rethink is preventing anyone who has been in Africa within the last two months from crossing any Western border.

See how useful borders can be, at least in theory, free traders?