Author: VD

Did No One Take Econ 101?

The Danish Prime Minister stupidly threatens to hit back at the coming US tariffs on the European Union. What we’re seeing here is the fundamental retardery and complete lack of a most basic education possessed by the mediocrities purportedly running Clown World.

The EU will be forced into a“robust response” if the US imposes tariffs on the bloc’s exports, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned on Monday.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on the EU unless the bloc reduces its trade deficit with the US by significantly increasing purchases of American oil and gas. On Friday, Trump reiterated his threat, saying he “absolutely” plans to levy tariffs on the EU and claiming that the bloc “has treated [the US] terribly” with its trade practices. He has not yet provided specific details regarding the targeted goods or the exact tariff rates, however.

Speaking to reporters ahead of an informal meeting of EU leaders in Brussels, Frederiksen warned that Trump’s insistence on placing levies on the bloc’s goods could trigger a trade war.

“I am not in favor of a trade war. I am actually in favor of the opposite, that we trade with each other… but it is clear that if there is very strong American pressure on the European market, we simply cannot do anything but respond harshly,” she stated.

Again, a trade war is MATERIALLY BENEFICIAL to any country with a negative balance of trade. So what the Danish Prime Minister is threatening the USA with is the net BENEFIT of transferring EUR 4.7 billion to the USA.

Now, most people don’t know anything about economics, particularly journalists and politicians. They know even less about economic history, which is why you’re going to see a few people attempting to look knowledgeable by referencing the Smoot-Hawley tariff, on which the stupid and the uninformed blame the Great Depression. Of course, I addressed this in my 2009 book on The Return of the Great Depression:

For many years, it was supposed that the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930 played a major role in the economic contraction of the Great Depression. As more economists are gradually coming to realize, this was unlikely the case for several reasons. First, the 15.5 percent annual decline in exports from 1929 to 1933 was less precipitous than the pre-tariff 18.3 percent decline from 1920 to 1922. Second, because the amount of imports also fell, the net effect of the $328 million reduction in the balance of trade on the economy amounted to only 0.3 percent of 1929 GDP. Third, the balance of trade turned negative and by 1940 had increased to nearly ten times the size of the 1929 positive balance while the economy was growing.

The Pomp Letter has begun educating himself on tariffs and economic history, and has concluded that the mainstream hysteria is based on a foundation of ignorance.

Trump implemented a 25% tariff on steel imports in March 2018. His reasoning was related to national security, along with a desire to get US steel mills operating at 80% capacity or higher.

Naturally, the critics of tariffs would argue that steel prices should have increased by 25% or more post-tariff, but as you can see in this chart — steel prices increased through the summer (steel prices had already been skyrocketing pre-tariff too) and then began falling substantially. US steel prices eventually fell to price levels much lower than pre-tariff prices.

Why did the price of US steel decrease? Domestic manufacturing of steel increased by nearly 10% for the 2 years post-tariffs.

“The USGS data show that Trump’s tariffs may have helped goose domestic steel production in the first few years after they were implemented. Production rose to 86.6 million metric tons in 2018 and 87.8 million metric tons in 2019, before cratering in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Production bounced back in 2021, as American steel mills produced 85.8 million metric tons of raw steel that year.”

This means the 2018 tariffs worked — US manufacturing of steel increased and US steel prices dropped lower.

Obviously, the pandemic created significant issues for manufacturing and industrial companies, but US steel prices still sit right now at nearly the same level as they were pre-tariff. Most importantly, steel prices have not kept up with consumer inflation since 2018.

So now you have three concrete examples from the 2018 tariffs that show the critics were wrong. The tariffs led to lower prices, increased American manufacturing, more government revenue, and the creation of American jobs. Also, US inflation (CPI) fell from 2.1% in January 2018 to 1.6% in January 2019, so the tariffs didn’t lead to higher inflation either.

The USA will win any tariff war because it has been losing the free trade war for decades. America has literally nothing to lose in this regard.

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The Most Based Book of All

Is A SEA OF SKULLS, apparently. The director of the Based Book Sale issues a report preparatory to the Spring sale, in which both Castalia and Arkhaven will be participating.

A Sea of Skulls by Vox Day took top honors. John C. Wright authored the next two most popular books. In second place was his first Starquest book, Space Pirates of Andromeda, followed by his 2016 Dragon Award winning Best Novel, Somewither. Vox Day closely follows in fourth and fifth place with A Throne of Bones (Arts of Dark and Light Book 1) and Summa Elvetica: A Casuistry of the Elvish Controversy (Arts of Dark and Light). In sixth place was sale newcomer, Devon Eriksen, with Theft of Fire: Orbital Space #1. Michael F. Kane secured seventh place honors with After Moses. The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire by Edward Gibbon came in eighth place. Based Book Sale perennial offering, The Hidden Truth was ninth. Henry Brown’s six-book Paradox series in a box set completed the top ten.

And you know, A SEA OF SKULLS is based. Speaking of which, the interiors of volumes I and II have just been printed for the leather editions.

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The Corruption Was Worse Than We Imagined

President Trump’s DOGE team discovers that Clown World had a siphon permanently attached to the US Treasury:

The @DOGE team discovered, among other things, that payment approval officers at Treasury were instructed always to approve payments, even to known fraudulent or terrorist groups.

They literally never denied a payment in their entire career.

Not even once.

This is clear and present grounds for declaring martial law. The fact that the Federal government is confirmed to have been paying out money to parties not explicitly authorized to be funded by Congress is far more serious than any border crisis or military invasion.

The Swamp is deeper, though no more evil, than we thought. Perhaps President Trump is capable of doing for America what Putin has done for Russia and Xi has done for China. Remember, China has been waging war against its own Deep State since 2012 and the launch of the anti-corruption campaign. The scale, both in China and the USA, is larger than you can probably conceive.

According to the National Commission of Supervision (NCS), as of last December, China has dealt with 768,000 cases of misconduct and corruption that directly affect people’s livelihoods since the 20th National Congress of the CPC in 2022, with a total of 628,000 people involved in these cases punished and 20,000 people transferred to procuratorial organs.

This is why the media is so panicked about Trump 2.0. The tariffs on Canada and Mexico are only the beginning.

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CDAN Calls Out NFL

After the dollars and eyes on last year’s event, this organization was always intending to make sure the fix was in. They aren’t going to give up all that new money and new viewers from last time. Whether or not it’s obvious that it’s rigged no longer matters. 

NFL/Kansas City Chiefs/Super Bowl

The NFL may not realize it yet, but it has a budding crisis on its hands concerning its legitimacy. The price of capturing new viewers is capturing the attention of people who aren’t fans and aren’t inclined to accept the official explanations. And the way the NBA is forcing teams to move players around against their own interests definitely isn’t helping, so blanket denials that simply assume the argument won’t cut it.

CDAN had another NFL-related one.

Plantation Khaleesi is the one leaking stories that she is going to be in the suite next week with the A+ list singer. That isn’t going to happen.

The answer, of course, is Blake Lively and Taylor Swift. I’m paying attention to the whole Reynolds v Baldoni thing since it may have some eventual fallout in the English football world.

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Eliminating De Minimis

The Trump trade tariffs are more sophisticated and even more necessary than they might appear at first glance:

So, Canada and Mexico get 25% tariffs, but China only 10%. Why? The secret is in that subsection “(h)” when it talks about de minimis treatment. Essentially, what President Trump is doing is levying a much more massive import tax, and possible confiscation impact on the core source of fentanyl (and other illegal) substances.

Approximately a billion packages are estimated to enter the USA under the cover of the de minimis exemption. This is where the enforcement mechanism of the “External Revenue Service” combines with the tariff approach and the “state of emergency.” President Trump imposed the tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a nearly 50-year law that gives the president sweeping power to impose sanctions after declaring an emergency.

Now the billion packages, mostly from China, Mexico and Canada are going to be subjected to review and interception.

The de minimis loophole comes from back in the 1930s. The idea back then was, say you went on a vacation to Paris, you shouldn’t have to file customs paperwork or pay taxes if you decided to ship some little Eiffel Tower statues to your friends back home. Congress in 2015 then raised the de minimis threshold from $200 to $800. However, the e-commerce world exploded, and Chinese companies began using the de minimis loophole to ship cheap goods (ex. Temu and Shein) into the USA direct to consumers without paying any customs duty.

It was reported last year that the U.S. was on track to receive a billion packages through the de minimis loophole that aren’t taxed and don’t have customs slips saying what they are. Making matters worse, illegal items are slipping through the cracks, including, knockoffs, unsafe items and even chemicals used to make fentanyl. The worst abuser that exploits this de minimis loophole is, by far, China.

President Trump can require a customs and duty declaration stating what is in every package and subsequently collect tariffs and duties.

Put it all together and President Trump is executing an Emergency Act executive order, plus the imposition of a tariff review, and simultaneous interception of de minimis packages previously unchecked as the enforcement mechanism. All executed by the External Revenue Service.

Increasingly, it is becoming obvious how derelict in their duties the various branches of the US federal government have been in their favoring foreign interests over the national interests of the American people. Nationalism is observably and conclusively the moral position vis-a-vis the corrupt globalist ideology that necessitates dishonesty and favors corruption.

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A Desperation Move

Talk about a thumb on the scale. The NBA doesn’t just script game results, it literally moves its players around to its favored franchises. The only reason Luka Dončić is being traded to Los Angeles is because the league’s television ratings are free-falling and league officials know they need a white star in their signature franchise:

Utter disbelief fell across waves of NBA followers as a league-altering trade hit their screens in the hush of the night. Luka Dončić is headed to the Los Angeles Lakers, while Anthony Davis is on his way to the Dallas Mavericks in an unexpected blockbuster days before the NBA’s Feb. 6 trade deadline. ESPN’s Shams Charania first reported the trade which shook the whole league.

In full, the Mavericks sent Dončić, Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris to the Lakers for Davis, Max Christie and a 2029 first-round pick. The Utah Jazz were also in the deal and received Jalen Hood-Schifino, a 2025 Clippers second-round pick (via the Lakers) and a 2025 Mavericks second-round pick.

The move was so unbelievable, Charania had to ensure the many NBA fans who get his posts straight to their phones that the deal was, in fact, real.

The LA ownership is not that much smarter than every other franchise, it just happens to be a more important team. It’s not an accident that so many of the league’s biggest stars somehow find a way to end up there. The only real surprise here is that it was Dončić who was sent to LA to rescue the league, although perhaps they’re still planning to move Nikola Jokic to Boston and Victor Wembanyama to New York to create a three-way rivalry that might spark sufficient fan interest to get them watching the NBA again.

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Testing the Free Trade Hypothesis

It has long been a mantra of the free trade crowd that both sides lose from a trade war. President Trump has called that mantra into question by launching a trade war with Canada, and likely Mexico and China as well:

Canada will retaliate against President Donald Trump’s new tariffs with 25% levies on a raft of U.S. imports, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Saturday, warning Americans that Trump’s actions would have real consequences for them.

As relations between the long-time allies who share the world’s longest land border reach a new low, Trudeau told a news conference he was slapping tariffs on C$155 billion ($107 billion) of U.S. goods. Those on C$30 billion will take effect on Tuesday, the same day as Trump’s tariffs, and duties on the remaining C$125 billion in 21 days, he said.

Trudeau’s announcement came just hours after Trump ordered 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and 10% on goods from China, risking a trade war that economists say could slow global growth and reignite inflation. Trump said he would impose 10% tariff on all energy imports from Canada.

The Canadian leader said tariffs would include American beer, wine and bourbon, as well as fruits and fruit juices, including orange juice from Trump’s home state of Florida. Canada would also target goods including clothing, sports equipment and household appliances.

Trudeau said the coming weeks would be difficult for Canadians but that Americans would also suffer from Trump’s actions. “Tariffs against Canada will put your jobs at risk, potentially shutting down American auto assembly plants and other manufacturing facilities,” Trudeau said, addressing U.S. citizens during a press conference in Ottawa. “They will raise costs for you, including food at the grocery store and gas at the pump.”

Canada is considering non-tariff measures, potentially relating to critical minerals, energy procurement and other partnerships, Trudeau said. The 9,000-km (5,600-mile) U.S.-Canada border handles over $2.5 billion in trade a day, especially in energy and manufacturing, according to Canadian government data from 2023.

In 2023, Canada exported close to C$550 billion worth of goods and services to the U.S., or more than three-fourths of its total exports. Energy accounted for 30% and manufacturing contributed around 15% to exports south of the border. Exports to the U.S. accounts for roughly 17.8% of Canadian gross domestic product and more than 2.4 million jobs in Canada.

Let’s look at the three trade balances:

  • Canada: Canada’s merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. last year was C$100 billion. That equates to 3.2% of Canadian GDP. The U.S., however, enjoys an edge in services trade, mainly related to Canadians flowing over the American border. This impact shrinks the trade surplus to C$85 billion, or 2.8% of Canadian GDP, and $45 billion, or -0.2% of U.S. GDP.
  • China: China had a surplus of $990.6 billion with the US. This accounts for 5.4% of Chinese GDP and -4.4 percent of US GDP.
  • Mexico: Mexico had a surplus of $171.5 billion with the US. This accounts for 9.5% of Mexican GDP and -0.8% of US GDP.

Conclusion: the USA will handily win a trade war with all three countries, which is presumably why President Trump singled them out. The US economy will observably benefit from removing foreign competitors taking sales away from domestic businesses; the GDP cost to the foreign countries is an order of magnitude greater to them because their interaction with the USA is more parasitical than symbiotic.

The maximum direct impact to US GDP would be expected to be +5.4 percent, or a benefit of $1,215 billion to the US economy. The maximum direct impact to the three foreign economies would be expected to be an average of -5.9 percent. So even a trade war that leads to a complete end to all trade between the US and the three countries would be expected to significantly help the US economy and increase US wages, and harm all three foreign economies.

Remember, the theoretical justifications for free trade have always been false and incorrect, as first demonstrated by Ian Fletcher and then conclusively disproved by me. Free trade is absolutely and inherently detrimental to a nation, because its logic of efficiency and optimally pairing labor with capital absolutely requires the complete destruction of families, local communities, and the demographics of the nation itself.

The fact that decades of even partially free trade within and without the US borders has significantly fostered these three negative societal trends isn’t an accident, it is specifically predicted by my theoretical observations and argument in my 2016 book ON THE QUESTION OF FREE TRADE.

Here is the relevant Presidential order. It’s informative to see that instead of cracking down on its illegal fentanyl production and exports, the Canadian government has elected to embrace trade war. The irony here is that the USA is simply attempting to do what China tried, and failed, to do in the Opium Wars.

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The Pointlessness of Posturing

Either a number of people associated with Baen Books are less dialed-in to what is happening on the business side than they believe themselves to be or they desperately need lessons in some of the basics of public relations.

  • PR 101: Never deny anything that you know someone else can prove.
  • PR 102: Never get into a fight with anyone who buys ink by the barrel.

Larry Correia posted a long-winded rant both on his blog and on X regarding the piece, opening with the personal attack, “So I hear certain people are trying to stir up outrage clicks spreading dumb rumors about some publishers again.”

Our article, however, does not contain any speculation, only a reporting of facts that have been verified and direct commentary from several Baen Books authors and employees, as previously noted.

Correia did, however, elaborate that he intends to diversify his book portfolio from Baen Books even further in the coming years. He said, “Here, I’ll even add to the freak out, I’m also going to be doing some pure indy stuff in the future too. Why? Because I can, and I want to see what happens when I do. It has been a long time since I’ve experimented in that, the market has changed a ton since then, and has a lot of potential. I like making money. Me doing an indy project might make money. Go figure.”

Many of Correia’s fans reacted to his rant, voicing support for the author and making odd comments mocking his “career-ending,” responding to everything he said but not any of the information in Fandom Pulse’s article, as Correia obfuscated as to what the topic was at hand.

Former Sad Puppy Sarah A. Hoyt, who was dropped from Baen due to her poor sales and is not an American, replied with a bizarre comment, “Yeah. People asked, so I actually read the idiocy. It’s all a thinly veiled tissue of hallucinations…. Having been the subject of such ‘reporting’ before, I’m not even amused.” It’s unclear what she’s talking about.

It doesn’t take a genius to observe that Baen Books is unlikely to survive the loss of Larry Correia to both a) another publisher and b) going independent. Perhaps some of the people quoted don’t know this, but Baen is 25 percent owned by Tor Books and has a very limited number of distribution slots through its distribution partner. As with most mainstream publishers, it is heavily dependent upon its bestselling author or two propping up the rest of its authors.

This is the problem that Tor Books faces as well. The reason John Scalzi was given a massive lead author contract was because Tor needed to replace Brandon Sanderson, the late Robert Jordan, and the game tie-in business that it lost, unfortunately for Tor and Scalzi, he has been unable to do so. He still sells, he just doesn’t sell well enough.

The fact that Larry Correia walked means that Baen Books couldn’t afford the right of first refusal to his new series, which is hardly surprising. I told Larry back in 2015 that he should go independent and I’ve expected to see him do so ever since Brandon Sanderson demonstrated how high the ceiling can be for an independent author. The fact that he was willing to prop up Baen for nearly ten years longer than he probably should have from a financial perspective is testimony to his loyalty and gratitude to his longtime publisher.

But Baen has been circling the drain for years anyhow, because its business practices are out of date. It ignored the authors it should have been courting – including Nick Cole, Jason Anspach, John C. Wright, JDA, and myself, among others – while also ignoring the advent of crowdfunding and the negative impact of Kindle Unlimited. And now its window of opportunity has closed.

People can preen and posture all they like, but what will be will be. And it’s both foolish and futile to get one’s panties in a bunch over educated observers simply noting what has happened, what is happening, and what is likely to happen. Let bygones be bygones and make hay while the sun is shining; just yesterday one of my more vehement past critics and I achieved mutual understanding on a potential future project with excellent prospects for both of us; whether we follow through on it or not, the mere fact of our discussion is a testimony to the professional approach to these things.

I may not be fond of John Scalzi, just to give one example, but if the man ever decides he wants to do a deluxe edition of Old Man’s War in leather, I’ll not only agree to work with him, I’ll guarantee him that we will make him a higher-quality and more attractive edition than Easton or Folio Society will give him. Because an important part of being professional is learning how to set aside one’s personal predilections.

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From Free Trade to Forced Trade

I sincerely hope this is overheated rhetoric from President Trump, because it strikes me as precisely the sort of attempted bullying from a weak position that has made it clear to the sovereign nations that they are better off not trying to work with or accommodate the USA on the basis of their economic interests:

US President Donald Trump has reiterated his threat to impose 100% tariffs against countries of the BRICS bloc, of which India is a part, if they attempt to replace the US dollar with an alternative currency. “The idea that the BRICS countries are trying to move away from the dollar, while we stand by and watch, is OVER,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social on Friday.

“We are going to require a commitment from these seemingly hostile countries that they will neither create a new BRICS currency, nor back any other currency to replace the mighty US dollar or, they will face 100% tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful US economy,” he stated.

Now, tariffs are to the advantage of the US economy due to its negative balance of trade, so this is certainly the right time to attempt to utilize them in whatever fashion is most advantageous. But risking having the USA off from most of the rest of the world in order to maintain the ability to keep issuing more and more debt is neither advantageous nor wise.

On the positive side, no matter how this plays out, it should nail a wooden stake right through the heart of the free trade charlatans.

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