Modern science is non-science

I’ve been saying this for years, simply on the basis of informed observation. But now there is hard evidence that nearly all – not just most – modern “science” is, in truth, literally nothing of the kind:

Fewer than 1 percent of papers published in scientific journals follow the scientific method, according to research by Wharton School professor and forecasting expert J. Scott Armstrong. Professor Armstrong, who co-founded the peer-reviewed Journal of Forecasting in 1982 and the International Journal of Forecasting in 1985, made the claim in a presentation about what he considers to be “alarmism” from forecasters over man-made climate change.

“We also go through journals and rate how well they conform to the scientific method. I used to think that maybe 10 percent of papers in my field … were maybe useful. Now it looks like maybe, one tenth of one percent follow the scientific method” said Armstrong in his presentation, which can be watched in full below. “People just don’t do it.”

Armstrong defined eight criteria for compliance with the scientific method, including full disclosure of methods, data, and other reliable information, conclusions that are consistent with the evidence, valid and simple methods, and valid and reliable data.

Science, like so many other institutions across the West, has been converged. And, as per the Impossibility of Social Justice Convergence, it has lost its ability to perform its primary function.


They have to go back

That which cannot continue, will not continue:

The legal and illegal population of foreign-born immigrants living in America will break a 100-year-old record in just six years — and will continue to smash records for the rest of the century, according to a new analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.

Already 13.5 percent of the U.S. population, immigrants will surge to 15 percent in 2023, according to Steven Camarota, the director of research for the Center for Immigration Studies.

At a conference to discuss the impact of immigration on public schools, he said “the share will hit 15 percent in just six years and that will surpass the all time high in the United States reached in 1890.” And if unchecked, he added, “the share is projected to increase throughout much of this century.”

Linear thinkers always argue that trends cannot be reversed. Of course, if that were true, the previous all-time high would not have peaked in 1890.


Sovereignty in the UK

Great Britain has invoked Article 50 and is officially leaving the European Union:

Brexit begins! Historic moment for the UK as Article 50 letter is delivered to the EU with Theresa May hailing a ‘great turning point’ for country as it looks to forge a ‘bright new future’ outside the Brussels club. The Prime Minister signed the historic letter triggering EU divorce last night. Brexit will be irreversible once handed to EU chief Donald Tusk in Brussels today

Congratulations to the British for reclaiming their nation. This is a historic moment, every bit as historic as the Revolutionary War and the defeats of Napoleon and Hitler, despite not a shot being fired.

The EU is a stealth empire that has conquered with lies and banks in the place of infantry and tanks. It is to the great credit of the British people that they have had the courage to resist their subjugation and reclaim their nation and the Rights of Englishmen.


ROCKY MOUNTAIN RETRIBUTION

In the post-Civil War West, the railroads are expanding, the big money men are moving in, and the politicians they are buying make it difficult for a man to stand alone on his own. So, Walt Ames moves his wife, his home and his business from Denver to Pueblo. The railroads are bringing new opportunities to Colorado Territory, and he’s going to take full advantage of them.


Ambushed on their way south, Walt and his men uncover a web of corruption and crime to rival anything in the big city. And rough justice, Western-style, sparks a private war between Walt and some of the most dangerous killers he’s ever encountered, a deadly war in which neither friends nor family are spared.


Across the mountains and valleys of the southern Rocky Mountains, Walt and his men hunt for the ruthless man at the center of the web. Retribution won’t be long delayed… and it cannot be denied.

ROCKY MOUNTAIN RETRIBUTION is the second book in The Ames Archives, the classic Western series that began with BRINGS THE LIGHTNING. Author Peter Grant is a military veteran, a retired pastor, and the author of The Maxwell Saga and The Laredo Trilogy.

DRM-free. Also available in EPUB format from the Castalia House bookstore. From the reviews:

  • the story feels startlingly real. It’s crystal clear that the author knows what he is speaking of when he describes the joy of love, the pain of loss, and the sting of battle.
  • If you like Louis L’Amour or Zane Grey, you’ll enjoy these. Grant is one of the best story tellers I know, and I’ve enjoyed his westerns more than anything else he’s written. I definitely recommend Rocky Mountain Retribution to anyone who enjoys adventure, honor, and grit.
  • Peter Grant’s research is impeccable. His study of the weaponry, business, demographics, and customs of the Old West offer surprisingly insights and keeps his work from being just another paint-by-number spaghetti Western. I was especially impressed by the business analysis, showing how Walt makes his decisions to go and do what he does.

Fun with book tour

Another rare Pepe! I had no idea so many Dread Ilk were also Scalzi fans. It’s the rare author who can really reach across the political divide these days.



The media reviews of Tor books

Are by Tor-published authors. Apparently Ars Technica doesn’t quite grasp the concept of “conflict of interest”:

The Collapsing Empire is a hilarious tale of humanity’s impending doom
John Scalzi’s latest novel is a thought experiment about the fall of civilization.
ANNALEE NEWITZ – 3/28/2017, 1:30 PM

Annalee Newitz is the Tech Culture Editor at Ars Technica. She is the author of Scatter, Adapt, and Remember: How Humans Will Survive a Mass Extinction, and her first novel, Autonomous, comes out in September 2017.

Yeah, so, about that first novel.

AUTONOMOUS
Annalee Newitz
Tor Books
Tor/Forge
09/19/2017
ISBN: 9780765392077
304 Pages

Tor has been doing this for a while now. The contributor at the Guardian who wrote at least one puff piece about Scalzi was a Tor author too.


Mailvox: sporting the colors

A very satisfied Dark Lord Designs customer writes of his experience wearing DLD attire:

Had a unique outing this weekend to various home depot and lowe’s stores working on stuff for a home project and not realizing I was was sporting the Trumpslide 2020 shirt, took a while from all the looks and lots of smiles to figure out what was going on. And I thought I was looking extra handsome lol. Oh wait, I was! #MAGA

You have to admit, even the prettiest girl is only going to look that much more attractive in one of these.  SO MUCH WINNING! Now in red too.


Cerno comments on 60 Minutes

Don’t judge by theory, judge by the metrics. Mike pointed out in the comments here that his counterintuitive decision to go on 60 Minutes was clearly justified by the results.

Left wing Twitter expected me to be savaged last night, and you know what they did….They went silent on me because I won and are pissed at 60 Minutes and Pelley. The #1 blog on Buzzfeed today was about how I won. This was quite clearly a major win by all metrics.

I tend to agree. As I mentioned in the Darkstream last night, it’s very easy to see why Mike was justified in deciding to make an exception for 60 Minutes. Some statistics from Periscope:

2d ago 60 Minutes questions 6.5k viewers
1d ago Cernovich watches 60 Minutes special on fake news 65k viewers
18h ago #voxday Too big to ignore 838 viewers

 As I always say, Mike knows what he’s doing when it comes to the media. Mike not only popped his Periscope viewership by 10x overnight, people are now FAR more interested in getting his viewpoint than, for example, mine, as a result. That is not the hallmark of someone who does not know what he is doing.

Which is why, if your name is not “Mike Cernovich”, I strongly suggest you shut the fuck up about how to handle the media, especially if you find yourself tempted to criticize Mike’s media strategy. He knows the game, he knows how to play it, and he knows when to make exceptions to the general rules. You don’t.

Would I have gone on 60 Minutes? No. Would I have advised Mike to do so? No. And that is one reason why Mike’s recent Periscope has 65k viewers and my most recent one has 838.


How to write a negative review

Now THIS is a proper negative review, of such quality that even the professional reviewer can only salute and applaud. An actual scientist provides the fake reviewers of Corrosion with an exemplary masterpiece of devastation in his review of John Scalzi’s The Collapsing Empire, which he took the innovative approach of actually reading in order to criticize it more effectively:

A Slipshod, Incompetent Disaster

I gave this book a fair shake. While I disagree with John Scalzi on sociopolitical issues, that doesn’t mean he can’t be a good, or even great author. After all, I disagree vehemently with Margaret Atwood and Stephen King, but I consider them brilliant scribes whose works I adore. Unfortunately, “The Collapsing Empire” is a mess so wretched that I can’t see how even Scalzi’s biggest fans can defend it.

A major problem is the lack of logical sense to the proceedings. This goes beyond mere plot holes, although there are no lack of those. For instance, the Prologue features a ship mutiny. One in which the ship’s chief engineer is murdered and there are plans to do the same with the captain and her supporters. Risky business, no? Not only do the mutineers face the prospect of armed resistance, putting their lives on the line, but they have committed a serious criminal act. Who is to say they won’t be found out by an investigator? Or one of the many fellow mutineers won’t blackmail them or squeal later on the others?

In other words, they need a damn compelling reason to mutiny. The one provided by Scalzi is that the executive officer leading the mutiny will receive a 30% premium on their weapons cargo by selling to the rebels of the planet instead of the government. Yes, you read that correctly. 30 percent, not 30 times.

This is absurdly stupid, the equivalent of burning down one’s house because one spotted a spider in the bathroom.

There are other problems with the mutiny. Inexplicably, the ship has all the weapons stored in one and only one cabinet in the entire ship. Which is conveniently taken over by the mutineers. This is of course preposterous, and shows again that Scalzi has no clue about the military science fiction he writes about.

Oh, and neither the captain nor any of her loyal officers is armed beyond a single futuristic weapon that works inside of three feet.

With the mutiny proceeding poorly, Scalzi interjects with some long exposition. In the middle of the tense life-and-death stand-off, we suddenly get multiple paragraphs explaining the pseudo-science behind “The Flow”. This completely shatters a reader’s immersion into the story, and is done so poorly a fan fiction writer would wince. Scalzi even breaks the fourth wall, explaining to us about how things function in “this universe”.

Moreover, this exposition exposes Scalzi as being as clueless about science as he is on military matters. Now, “The Flow” itself seems to be a rip-off of similar teleportation concepts from older, classic science fiction works like “The Forever War” by Joe Haldeman. But whereas Haldeman has a degree in physics and astronomy and writes credibly on the topic, Scalzi, a philosophy major, is hopelessly lost.

He tries to mask this confusion with meaningless mumbo-jumbo. “Topographically complex” is not a term, but word salad to impress laypeople with. And just what the hell is “metacosmological structure”?! Hilariously, Scalzi then throws up his hands and admits defeat;

“And even that was a crap way of describing it, because human languages are crap at describing things more complex than assembling a tree house. The accurate way of describing the Flow involved the sort of high-order math probably only a couple hundred human beings across the billions of the Interdependency could understand, much less themselves use to describe it meaningfully. You likely would not be one of them.”

In that case, why not delete the previous section entirely? There are other absurd passages. For instance, the crew is told of the speed (a scalar) of Scalzi’s teleportation mumbo-jumbo, but not its direction (a vector) or its acceleration. A high school freshman taking physics for the first time would be embarrassed for the writer.

Now, while I’m a scientist for a living who enjoys hard science fiction, there is nothing wrong with a science fiction author having a poor grasp of science, provided he excels in other areas. Harry Harrison is a favorite of mine, and the less said about his understanding of physics and mathematics, the better. However, Harrison avoided this problem by very rarely bothering with these subjects at all. Scalzi, meanwhile, engages with them and looks like an absolute fool in the process.

Even when it comes to basic human interaction, the mutiny is a failure. In this tense, life-and-death situation, the characters react with…snark. Consider this exchange;


“Eva Fanochi probably could have answered that for you,” Gineos said. “If you hadn’t murdered her, that is.”


“Now’s not a great time for that discussion, Captain.”

This doesn’t exactly inspire a reader to care about what the hell ends up happening to the characters. After all, they themselves don’t. Oh, and the captain wins by a bluff that makes no sense. She says that if she dies, her hand on a control panel will “blow every airlock the ship has into the bubble”? Sounds convincing, but what is it supposed to mean? And why would the mutineers, all experienced crewmen, fall for it when it’s revealed to be absolute rubbish a moment later? Wouldn’t they know the ship and its capabilities?

The following chapters I read, while not as error-laden, are still inauthentic and boring, when they’re not vile and outrageous.

Other reviewers have noted the introduction to Kiva Lagos, a powerful noble who is busy either raping or sexually coercing a lowly male subordinate through her vastly superior rank. He begs her to stop. She doesn’t let him. Lagos also swears and insults others constantly. One might think she is a main villain, but instead Lagos is a primary protagonist. Scalzi even called her one of his favorite characters ever. Apparently, behavior that would be considered sickening and abhorrent even in an unrepentant male antagonist is considered admirable and empowering so long as the gender is switched to female.

Scalzi tries to write cool, even female cool (which is harder), but it comes off as sophomoric and laughable when it’s not vulgar and repulsive. We are also told that Lagos was pursuing (stalking?) this junior purser for six whole weeks. Men pursue women for that long, but women don’t. Once her mind is made up, a confident woman would express her feelings long before that, and the man would either reject or accept her. Add “sexual dynamics” to the list of subjects Scalzi is ignorant of.

We are told the “emperox” Cardenia has to marry a member of a merchant guild. Why is she compelled to do so, when she is the most powerful person in the universe? Surely, it’s lesser individuals and families that have to scheme and marry to accrue more power rather than the top potentate? I’m not saying there aren’t circumstances where doing so wouldn’t make sense. However, it has to be EXPLAINED. Instead, Scalzi, in murky fashion, notes it would be advantageous for dealing with the merchant guilds (why?), with nothing further.

Speaking of lack of explanations, that dovetails with the most startling weakness of the book. The complete and total lack of any description. We are told nothing, absolutely nothing about the physical characteristics of any character, including main protagonists Emperox Cardenia Wu-Patrick, Kiva Lagos, and Captain Gineos. Naturally, there is no description of any buildings, rooms, objects, or spaceships, either.

While I generally dislike voluminous, multi-page descriptions, favoring sparser brush strokes, one still expects SOMETHING. With nothing offered at all, these characters, and the story as a whole, become little more than an amorphous blob. It adds to the feeling that this is lazy, bad fan fiction…. Avoid this, even if you’re a die-hard Scalzi fan.

While the book review is borderline sadistic in its heartless attention to detail, it is certainly informative for prospective readers, particularly when one compares it with a negative “review” of similar length, which is chiefly notable for the fact that the reviewer is as unfamiliar with Isaac Asimov and Foundation as he is with Johan Kalsi and Corrosion.

Ceterum censeo Tor Books esse delendam