Whoever is pulling the strings of the Short Fat Trump is going to have to accept the fact that the two choices are between a) abandoning Israel to its self-chosen fate, whatever that might be, or b) suffering an abject defeat in the Middle East now that Israel is attempting to drag the US military back into another round of war with Iran.
Nine days after Iran warned the West, Israel in particular, that any further attacks on Beirut would result in Iran retaliating against Israel, Israel hit the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh. The attack on Sunday afternoon sent plumes of smoke rising over the suburb, with strikes targeting two apartments in two buildings. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office announced the attack in the Dahiyeh district, saying it was in retaliation for an earlier Hezbollah strike on Israel. At least two people were killed and 11 wounded in the strike on the densely populated civilian neighborhood, according to Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency.
Iran, as promised, wasted little time in responding and launched 20 missiles in five waves at Israel. Donald Trump called Bibi Netanyahu, telling him to hold off in retaliating against Iran because he anticipated signing a peace deal with Iran. Trump also reportedly told Netanyahu that if Israel decided to retaliate the Israelis would not have US support. What did Netanyahu do? He launched a retaliatory strike using 11 missiles against Iran.
As I write this, Iran is responding with a larger missile launch against Israel and there are visible impacts in Israel despite Israeli claims that the IDF intercepted the missiles. Not to be left on the sidelines, the Houthis joined in by launching a missile at Israel. Media reports blamed the Houthis for also striking the Prince Saud Airbase in Saudi Arabia, but there is no independent confirmation to substantiate that claim. In addition, the Houthis announced they are closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is certain to roil the financial markets. Finally, Hezbollah stepped up its engagement of Israeli targets and launched more missiles and drones into northern Israel.
The IRGC has officially announced the beginning of the ‘Nasr‘ military operation against two major Israeli airbases: Tel Nof and Nevatim.
It’s obvious that Israel wanted to reignite the war, for exactly the same reason they started it. Their odds of avoiding complete defeat are better if the US and its bases are taking the majority of the damage. The interesting question is: why did they restart it via attacking Lebanon? I think there are two reasons.
- If they are going to take any new territory, it’s going to be in southern Lebanon.
- Striking Iran directly means strikes on all the US military bases in the Gulf States again, and there is a real risk of either the Gulf States kicking out the USA or the USA voluntarily withdrawing its forces and leaving Israel to fight Iran alone.
Given the desperate way in which Trump is shouting “Peace is at hand” in direct contradiction to the evidence, I don’t think it’s a guarantee that the US military fully engages in this round. But if it does, I expect things to go even worse for both the US and Israeli militaries, although Israel does appear to be doing better against Hezbollah since the ceasefire started.