The IDF has officially invaded Lebanon for the third time since 1982.
The Israeli military last night confirmed that it has launched a ground invasion of Lebanon, as fears mount that the escalation could plunge the Middle East into all-out war.
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said it had begun ‘localised and targeted raids’ against Hezbollah enemies in southern Lebanon.
“These targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel,” the military added.
It added that the operation will continue “according to the situational assessment and in parallel to combat in Gaza and in other arenas”.
It appears the USA finally gave in and submitted to the inevitable. Like the Palestinians in Gaza, Hezbollah has no choice but to engage now. The big question now is if Iran will sit tight and continue to rely upon attrition or if it will directly assist its proxies in Lebanon. Based on the discipline demonstrated so far by the major powers, I would assume that it will follow NATO’s lead by providing resources and material support from afar rather than take the fight to Israel now.
So, I very much doubt all-out war is presently on the cards, which does not mean things might not get to that point sometime next year. The last IDF-Hezbollah war lasted 34 days; presumably this one will go longer, but I doubt it will escalate to a region-wide conflict.
One thing that is worthy of note here is that Iran clearly has not made modern air defense systems available to Hezbollah, which means that unlike the Russians or the Ukrainians, the Israelis can make use of air strikes and air support.
UPDATE: The Lebanese Army has reportedly pulled back 5km from the border to avoid a direct confrontation with the IDF ground forces. So, it’s possible that this is a limited, short-term incursion meant to expand the buffer zone, although that seems like a pointlessly short-term exercise.