A General’s Prediction

The divergence between Gen. Petraeus’s predictions for the Kiev counteroffensive and the apparent results does not bode well for NATO strategists.

Gen David Petraeus has said Ukraine’s counteroffensive is “very impressive” and can succeed, adding that the Ukrainians are “determined to liberate their country”.

On the counteroffensive, he said:

I think that this counteroffensive is going to be very impressive.

My sense is that they will achieve combined arms effects in other words, they will successfully carry out combined arms operations where you have engineers that are breaching the obstacles and diffusing the minefields and so forth; armour following right on through protected by infantry against anti-tank missiles; air defence keeping the Russians aircraft off them; electronic warfare jamming their radio networks; logistics right up behind them; artillery and mortars right out in front of them.

And most important of all … is that as the lead elements inevitably culminate after 72-96 hours, physically that’s about as far as you can go, and they’ll have taken losses … you have follow-on units that will push right on through and capitalise on the progress and maintain the momentum and I think that can get the entire Russian defence in that area moving, then I think you have other opportunities that will open up on the flanks as well.

It’s been a lot more than 72-96 hours. Not only are the NATO forces nowhere near Moscow, but they’ve essentially bounced off what has been described as “a wall of steel”, losing about one-third of their forces in the process.

Simplicius has turned out to be correct again. This is a “Schroedinger’s Offensive”, which is no longer an offensive, much less a “very impressive” one, but rather, a mere test, and mere recon in force. Never mind that the “in force” in this case amounted to a substantial percentage of the total available equipment.

No wonder the neoclowns are suddenly babbling about diplomacy and the need for negotiations.