Rumors of Invasion

Things appear to be quietly heating up around the Taiwan Straits:

China’s growing assertiveness toward Taiwan has triggered a public push by Japanese leaders to plan for a possible conflict, a shift that could lead to closer cooperation with the U.S. military.

Tokyo officials, normally wary of upsetting Beijing, are speaking openly about preparing for a crisis and supporting Taiwan, a self-ruled island claimed by China, despite Japan’s pacifist constitution.

Like the U.S., Japan doesn’t have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. But on Friday, lawmakers in Tokyo and Taipei held a rare meeting by videoconference to discuss ways to boost ties, including possible cooperation in maritime rescue.

Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso said recently in a speech to supporters that Japan and the U.S. should plan together to defend the island in the event of hostilities.

In its annual regional security review, Japan said there a “greater sense of crisis than ever before” regarding Taiwan, after China stepped up maneuvers by its ships and aircraft nearby.

I’ve heard multiple rumors of an incipient invasion of Taiwan – incipient meaning sometime in September or October – from various sources. Some of them are flying around the chans, as AC notes:

There was an anon on 4Chan who claimed to be an insider at State, and he said China offered Biden a deal – they would tell him when the Taiwan invasion would begin, and in return he would not tell Taiwan, and he would promise to not get involved. Supposedly Biden took the deal, and the date is Sept 25th. Supposedly it will be two weeks of aerial bombardment, followed by a land invasion.

I’m very skeptical of that particular rumor, because I expect Taiwan to submit within 24 hours of the mainland launching an attack of any kind. Unless the Red Army begins with an invasion, there shouldn’t be any need for anything more than a relatively peaceful occupation.