Chinese index predicts Trumpslide

A Chinese reader has sent me a translation of an article from a Chinese website that refers to a manufacturing index often used for predictive purposes on the basis of orders received for relevant physical goods.

The US election in November is getting closer, and the campaign situation is getting more and more confusing. Many international media and forecasting agencies have also speculated. After all, whoever is elected will affect the international current situation and the interests of the public and enterprises. So, which party’s forecast is accurate? In the last US presidential election, American forecasters predicted that Hillary Clinton would be elected, but at the last minute, Trump, a dark horse, came from behind and made it to the presidential throne. However, at that time, China’s Yiwu Index showed that Trump would be elected, and the result was exactly as predicted. So, who will predict this year’s US presidential election accurately?

As the U.S. presidential election draws closer, whether the White House will change hands, and if transactions become one of the focuses of investors’ most attention. A survey conducted by the US media CNBC in early September showed that most stock strategists expected the Democratic candidate Biden to win the presidential election. Among the 20 strategists surveyed, 14 believe that Biden will defeat the current President Trump, and 3 strategists expect Trump to win. One of them pointed out that the situation in the swing state of Florida will determine Trump’s future. Of the 20 strategists, 19 are from the United States and 1 from the Asia-Pacific region.

On the whole, domestic and foreign media are not optimistic about Trump. However, in the eyes of Chinese Yiwu businessmen, the result of the US election has been settled. Trump will definitely win the US presidential election and be re-elected as president! Why Yiwu merchants say this is mainly because they hold a mysterious “Yiwu Index”.

Yiwu Small Commodities Merchants are Counting Commodities

Yiwu Index is a very interesting concept. It is the abbreviation of “Yiwu·China Commodity Index”, which mainly reflects the price and prosperity of Yiwu small commodities. Generally speaking, the higher the Yiwu index of a small commodity, the broader its market prospects. The Yiwu Index is now the fifth largest intelligence agency in the world, a rising star in the intelligence system, especially in light of the last US election as it accurately predicted the presidential election in advance.

Experts can analyze the trend of the international market through the changes in Yiwu order data, and make predictions on international events based on this. For example, the BLM movement broke out in the United States and people demonstrated for equal rights. At the same time, Yiwu also received a large number of orders for propaganda materials, which determined that this protest would not end in a short time. This was indeed the case. The United States is about to begin the general election campaign, in which candidates will inevitably need a large number of campaign items, and Yiwu, as the world’s small commodity distribution center, can use the data displayed by orders as a basis for judging the situation.

In the eyes of small businesses in Yiwu, the results of mainstream American polling agencies are false, as only “orders will not be faked”, because more orders for aid materials mean that the campaign team’s funds are richer and there are more supporters. For example, in the past few months, Yiwu merchant Li Qingxiang has received more than 100,000 orders for Trump’s support flags, support hats, and even support masks and face towels. However, Biden’s support flags have only sold few thousand copies. From this perspective, Trump’s true approval rate may be much higher than Biden.

Although there is not much rigorous scientific basis for using the Yiwu Index to infer the results of the U.S. general election, Yiwu, as the world’s largest distribution center for small commodities, tends to be reliable in election politics in Europe and the United States. In today’s world, the Yiwu Index can indeed become a “barometer” of many political hot events.

Considering that the Trump campaign also sells a good deal of “Made in the USA” products, his relative level of support may be even bigger than the Yiwu Index suggests.