Nobody knows anything

Five percent, 24 percent, it’s hard to say exactly:

Goldman Sachs predicts the coronavirus crash will be bigger than it originally thought. In a Friday research note, the bank projected a 24 percent drop in the U.S. GDP in the second quarter — a stark revision from its prediction of a five percent drop earlier this week. 

Even that’s not going to be enough to clear the outstanding debt issue. But the important thing is not the size of the estimated contraction, it is the fact that the margin of error over the course of less than a week is so massive.

Meanwhile, the federal government is about to prevent Americans from travelling out of the country. Curiouser and curiouser….

The State Department is preparing to issue the strongest travel advisory it can, two individuals familiar with the decision told Politico Thursday. It’ll tell Americans abroad to either return to the states or prepare to shelter in place — a Level 4 advisory, those sources said.

China and Mongolia are currently the only countries subject to a State Department level 4 travel advisory due to spread of the new coronavirus. The rest of the world is under a level 3 global health advisory, which suggests travelers reconsider their plans. The escalated level would instruct Americans to halt all travel out of the country; Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has approved the measure, Politico reported.