OECD: Nearing the Bottom

From the World Economic Outlook: Preliminary Edition

OECD activity now looks to be approaching its nadir, following the deepest decline in post-war history. The ensuing recovery is likely to be both weak and fragile for some time. And the negative economic and social consequences of the crisis will be long-lasting. Yet, it could have been worse. Thanks to a strong economic policy effort an even darker scenario seems to have been avoided.

The next six months will make for a nice test of neo-Keynesian contra-cyclical doctrine. According to the same mainstream economists who didn’t see it coming in the first place, the various stimulus packages concocted by the US, EU, Japanese, and Chinese governments are just about to take effect and return the global economy to delicate, but definite growth. Needless to say, I don’t buy it, but we after the next few weeks of correction we should see another wave of positive emotion during the summer doldrums that will take us to the fall. That’s when it promises to get interesting.

It’s also worth noting something that everyone seems to have conveniently forgotten. Obama’s was the second stimulus package. The one presently under whispered discussion would be the third.