Vox vs the experts

The clock is ticking down on the house price challenge. Needless to say I’m feeling even better about my estimate now that the November numbers are in.

Experts: “Existing-home prices are expected to decline 1.7 percent to a median of $218,200 for all of this year and hold essentially even in 2008 at $218,300.”

Vox: I’m expecting a decline that would project to $175k or less by the end of the year.

Dec 23, 2008: Sales prices for existing U.S. homes fell the most on record in November, tearing a deeper hole into households’ already tattered finances. The median resale price fell 13 percent from a year before, to $181,300, “probably the largest price decline since the Great Depression,” National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in Washington.

If housing prices fall the same amount from November to December as they did the previous month, I’ll end up off by $1,100, compared to $42,200 for the experts. That would be a margin of error of less than one percent, compared to 24 percent. Now perhaps some of you will understand why I don’t tend to be impressed by many “scientific” models.