Taking note

The New York Times makes the usual predictions of blood in the streets that are made whenever gun rights are honored or carry laws are passed:

In another sharp break with its traditions, the court struck down parts of the District of Columbia’s gun-control law. After seven decades of holding that the Second Amendment’s right to bear arms is tied to raising a militia, the court reversed itself and ruled that it confers on individuals the right to keep guns in their homes for personal use. The decision will no doubt add significantly to the number of Americans killed by gun violence.

Note that “significantly”. In 2004, 29,569 people were killed by guns. In 2005, 30,694 were killed, a 3.8 percent increase. According to the natural progression, there should be about 35,633 firearms deaths in 2009 even without the recent supreme court decision; let’s assume that a “significant” increase would be at least twice the expected rate of increase given population growth, to say nothing of the economic downturn and global warming. So, if the prophetic skills of the New York Times is to be trusted, gun fatalities should rise to at least 40,000 in 2009.

My view is that they won’t get anywhere near that level, unless, of course, Obama gets elected and decides to govern in the conventional African manner.