If David Frum were a superdelegate

He’d be thinking thusly:

Barack Obama can’t carry Florida. Can’t carry Ohio. Now we see he can’t carry Pennsylvania. Exit polls suggest that regular churchgoers don’t like him. Older white women don’t like him. He even lost white voters aged 18-29!

Doesn’t that make him look like a probable loser in November?

Yes, African Americans and upscale liberals will be annoyed if I prefer Hillary over him. But I don’t think we are in much danger of losing the African American and upscale liberal vote. The downscale white vote however – that’s important, that’s unpredictable, and if we nominate him, it looks like it may be gone.

He should have stopped his analysis there, because his “stronger” case for Obama leaves out the massive personal benefits that accrue to the party players when they raise one of their own to the Cherry Blossom Throne. Those trump any fears of retribution from the toothless black wing of the party.

As a general rule, the candidate who most benefits from visible youth support will lose the nomination. JFK being the obvious exception.