The most problematic fact in the lead-up to the 2008 elections isn’t the fund-raising problems, but that the Republican Party’s most positive political sign is that there is still some support for a war that they are in the process of losing:
During the summer, a female acquaintance of mine in her 70s who had been a faithful Republican was solicited by a GOP cold caller as a previous contributor to the party. Not this time. She informed the fund-raiser that President Bush’s position on immigration was the last straw. She would not give the Republicans another dime — not now, maybe never. So, she told him, “Stop calling me!”
That rebuff, commonplace in today’s Republican fund-raising, puts a human face on the Federal Election Commission’s cold statistics. They show a commanding Democratic lead over Republicans in raising money for the 2008 elections. Such an unusual disparity is at once a symptom and a contributing cause of the melancholy suffusing the Grand Old Party as Congress reconvenes after the August break.
As measured by offices held, Republicans have been in much worse shape during my half century of reporting in Washington. Their party was a mere remnant after the Democratic landslides of 1958, 1964 and 1974. But never before have I seen morale within the party so low. While Republican support for an unpopular war has remained remarkably strong, almost all non-war news during the dreary August recess has been bad for the GOP.
I don’t think Hillary will top Reagan’s electoral vote total, but her share of the popular vote may well be higher. Nominating a pro-war, pro-immigration candidate like Thompson or Giuliani will doom the Gay Old Party, as Hillary has shown that she will adroitly position herself just far enough to the more popular position to suck the life out of the Republican base.