Mailvox: Why Kerry will win – or not

Able writes: Kerry’s opponent is 1.) A proven liar; 2.) Lost much of his conservative base; 3.) Continues to unify the center and the left against himself; 4.) Has us in a war that he wasn’t prepared for, and which he sold to the American people through deception; 5.) Has watched as jobless figures continue to rise (even if you consider the b.s. numbers of March); 6.) Has seriously undermined progress on the environment; 7.) And much much more. Kerry may be a “waffler” (every Senator is, if you look closely enough at his or her voting record) and he may come off as cold, but his opponent has much more going against him, such that even with the things he has going for him, he can’t poll ahead of Kerry.

1. Bush and Kerry are both liars. Bush is a competent one, Kerry is an incompetent one. Being a liar has never prevented a politician from winning an election. Being a bad one does.

2. Much to my disappointment, Bush hasn’t lost most of his conservative base. He should have, but he hasn’t yet.

3. That’s ridiculous. The center loves Bush as much as the left hates him. It is interesting to see that the left continues to hate him even though he is governing to the left of every post-WWII Republican president except Richard Nixon. Bush is the most widely popular Republican president since Reagan, even though the right despises him.

4. Agreed. But Kerry has not exploited this. In fact, his own problems relating to his Vietnam and voting flip-flops make the war-related issues a comparative strength for Bush when they should be a weakness. This would have been Howard Dean’s issue; the Democratic party elders chose the wrong pony if this was going to be THE campaign issue.

5. The job numbers are not even close to a critical point. The managers of the economy have successfully modified the statistical measures sufficiently in order to make things look good. With the stock market near all-time highs, the economic issue is a slight positive for Bush. It’s not just the March jobs stat that is BS, they are ALL BS. If you want to see serious stat-monkeying, look at the CPI then compare it to housing, gas and food prices.

6. No one cares about the environment in an electoral except for a tiny minority, mostly college students who don’t vote anyhow. Total non-issue.

7. Yes, many senators are wafflers. This is one reason why they very seldom get elected president. How do you think that’s a pro-Kerry argument? It doesn’t have anything to do with him personally, but it is a serious weakness nonetheless.

A major stock market crash combined with an interest rate hike in excess of 50 basis points is the only thing that is likely to spur a Kerry win. Given that the Fed is making noises about moving them up “in the future” I’m guessing they won’t do anything until after the election. Kerry’s public persona is so bad that he may be the first candidate to drop in the polls after his party’s convention.

As for IQ, you should keep in mind that highly intelligent people equipped with bad data and lousy analytical models are capable of making tremendously stupid decisions. Since most high-IQ people have been educated in America’s elite universities in the past 30 years, their vastly inadequate analytical models are an actual handicap in understanding how the world works and making logical decisions. IQ is not wisdom, common sense or understanding. You can have the biggest gun in the world, but it’s not going to work as well as a .22 popgun if you load the ammunition backwards.