HARDCODED

Why artificial intelligence will replace institutional science is explained in my latest book from Castalia House, HARDCODED: AI and the End of Scientific Consensus.

When Claude Athos and I submitted four mathematically rigorous papers challenging neo-Darwinian evolution and one parody paper to six leading AI models configured as peer reviewers, the results exposed a fundamental problem with both science and AI. Five of six models comprehensively failed. Three were anti-calibrated—they reliably preferred fabricated nonsense over genuine science. A parody paper with about Japanese scientists dying fish different colors to prove natural selection scored 9/10. The real science, mathematically airtight and empirically validated against ancient DNA, was rated 1/10 and dismissed as “pseudoscience.”

This is the book that documents what that happened and what it means.

HARDCODED is the definitive account of how AI systems trained on the corrupted corpus of modern science have inherited every pathology of the institutions that produced them: the credentialism, the consensus enforcement, the systematic preference for orthodox nonsense over heterodox reality. The reproducibility crisis preceded the machines. AI didn’t cause the rot but AI revealed it at scale, with confidence, and in a form impossible to ignore.

Across sixteen chapters, the reader is introduced to:

  • The replication catastrophe that quietly invalidated half of all published science before anyone was looking
  • How peer review degenerated from quality control into hazing ritual and why Reviewer 2 became a meme
  • The details of the Probability Zero collaboration that produced the Bernoulli Barrier, the Selective Turnover Coefficient, and the maximal mutations ceiling—the mathematical constraints that killed neo-Darwinian theory.
  • The full transcripts of twelve rounds of debate with DeepSeek, in which an AI defending evolutionary orthodoxy stubbornly retreats step by step from one nonsenscal position into another, just like a human biologist.
  • The Red Team Stress Test that methodically closes every escape hatch before critics can retreat to them.
  • The harrowing of science: a field-by-field assessment of which disciplines will adapt, which will calcify, and which are already dead.

The book also delivers something genuinely new and positive: a scientific methodology for outsiders. With AI systems available as adversarial reviewers more powerful than peer review, the gatekeeping power of institutional science is broken. The credentialed monopoly on legitimate inquiry is over. The math does not care where you went to school, and the AI does not check for credentials before analyzing your arguments.

For readers who have suspected that “trust the science” was a mantra for the insane, HARDCODED is the book that explains exactly what went wrong with science, why it cannot be fixed from inside, and what comes next. For readers who still believe the institutions of science are still functioning, it is a conclusive proof that they are not.

The transcripts are reproduced in full. The mathematics is presented in detail. The four papers are included as appendices. Every claim is documented. Every retreat is closed off.

The institutions will adapt or they will become irrelevant. But the methodology of science which proceeded them will continue, with or without them.

Neither the math nor the AI models care where you went to school.

521 pages, or 15 hours and 37 minutes. Available for Kindle, KU, and audiobook. From the author of Probability Zero and The Frozen Gene.

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Less Than Zero

I’m somewhat chagrined to note that I made a major mistake in writing PROBABILITY ZERO and failed to notice that a paper had been recently published in Nature that would have had significant impact on how PROBABILITY ZERO was written. So much so, in fact, that it is necessary to revise the core MITTENS argument as well as revise the entire book and release a second edition.

Here is what happened, what it means, and why every honest reader of the first edition deserves to know that the standard model of evolution by natural selection is in even worse shape than the original calculations suggested.

The Number That Was Never Really 35 Million

For twenty years, the standard textbook claim has been that human and chimpanzee DNA is “98.8 percent identical.” That figure, repeated in every popular science article, every introductory biology textbook, and every “I fucking love science” tweet about how we are practically the same animal as a chimp, traces back to the 2005 Nature paper by the Chimpanzee Sequencing and Analysis Consortium. The headline number from that paper was approximately 35 million single nucleotide differences and 5 million indels affecting roughly 90 million base pairs of sequence. Forty million differences out of three billion base pairs. About 1.2 percent.

The first edition of PROBABILITY ZERO used these consensus figures because they were the consensus figures. The MITTENS framework demonstrates that the standard model fails by about 220,000-fold against the 35-40 million SNP target. That alone is a five-orders-of-magnitude failure. A theory that cannot account for 99.9995 percent of what it claims to explain is a theory that has lost its license to be called science.

But the 35 million figure was never the total observed divergence between the two genomes. It was only the divergence in the portion of the genomes that aligned cleanly to each other. The unalignable regions — sequence that is so different that no reasonable algorithm can map one species’ DNA onto the other’s coordinate system — were excluded from the difference count and quietly placed in supplementary tables where no journalist or undergraduate would ever read them.

This was not a methodological oversight. The 2005 paper aligned roughly 2.4 billion base pairs of the chimp genome to the human reference, out of a total chimp genome of approximately 3 billion. Six hundred million base pairs of unalignable sequence existed. The authors knew about it. But no one else did, and certainly no one really understood the significance of those unaligned sequences.

Yoo et al. 2025: The Numbers are Corrected

In April 2025, the Eichler lab at the University of Washington published the capstone of the telomere-to-telomere genome program: complete, gapless, diploid assemblies of all six great apes, at the same quality as the human reference. The paper has 122 authors. It has been cited 98 times in the eight months since publication. It is the most authoritative comparative ape genome paper in existence, and it will be for years to come. Yoo, D. et al., Complete sequencing of ape genomes, Nature 641, 401-418 (2025).

Here is the sentence that ends the standard divergence figure as a citable claim:

Overall, sequence comparisons among the complete ape genomes revealed greater divergence than previously estimated. Indeed, 12.5–27.3% of an ape genome failed to align or was inconsistent with a simple one-to-one alignment, thereby introducing gaps. Gap divergence showed a 5-fold to 15-fold difference in the number of affected megabases when compared to single-nucleotide variants.

The total structural divergence between human and ape genomes — including all insertions, deletions, duplications, inversions, rearrangements — affects between five and fifteen times more base pairs than the single nucleotide differences that everyone has been counting since 2005. The 35 million SNP figure was counting the smaller of two divergence categories and ignoring the larger one. And the gap range is not uncertainty, but rather, the different ranges between the closest-related apes and the least-related apes.

For the chimp-human comparison, the gap-divergence minimum is 12.5 percent. For the gorilla-human, it is 27.3 percent. The honest divergence figure for chimp-human is not 1.2 percent. It is somewhere between 12.5 and 14 percent of the genome, depending on which haplotypes you measure. Translated to base pairs: roughly 375 million additional base pairs of difference that the SNP count never captured, for a total genuine divergence of approximately 700 to 800 million base pairs between the two species.

That is not a refinement. That is an order of magnitude.

What This Does to the MITTENS Calculation

This makes the MITTENS argument considerably stronger. The probability of evolution by natural selection is now less than zero. The original MITTENS shortfall against the chimp-human gap was 220,000-fold. That number was computed against a requirement of 20 million fixations on the human lineage, which is half of the standard 40-million-difference figure.

Since the genuine chimp-human divergence is 415 million base pairs rather than 40 million, the requirement on the human lineage rises from 20 million fixations to roughly 207 million. A maximum of 91 fixations on the human lineage in the time available was the ceiling before, and it remains the ceiling now. The shortfall ratio rises from 220,000-fold to more than 2.3 million-fold against the chimp-human gap alone.

And every structural difference longer than a single base pair makes the problem mathematically worse, not better. A point mutation requires one mutation event and one fixation event. A 50,000 base pair insertion or a chromosomal inversion requires the entire structural rearrangement to occur as a single low-probability event and then to fix. Counting these by base pair, as the gap-divergence figure does, is generous to the standard model. Counting them by independent fixation events would be more devastating still.

The Yoo paper does not report this calculation. The Yoo paper reports the data and lets the reader draw the conclusion. The second edition of Probability Zero will draw the correct conclusions.

The Drift Defense Just Got Worse

Some defenders of the standard model, like Dennis McCarthy, retreated from from selection to drift. If natural selection cannot accomplish the work, perhaps neutral evolution and incomplete lineage sorting can carry the load.

This was already the weakest argument in the first edition’s bestiary of failed defenses. The first edition documents four independent reasons why incomplete lineage sorting cannot rescue the model: the quantitative ceiling on ancestral polymorphism, the demographic contradiction, the relocation rather than elimination of the fixation requirement, and the haplotype block bound. Each reason alone is sufficient to destroy the ILS defense.

Yoo et al. happen to claim, in the same paper, that incomplete lineage sorting accounts for 39.5 percent of the autosomal genome, and treat it as a vindication of the standard drift model. They are mistaken. The ILS objection collapses for the same four reasons documented in the first edition, and the second edition will engage Yoo specifically to demonstrate this. Their inflated ILS figure does not rescue anything. It simply distributes the fixation requirement across both lineages instead of consolidating it on one. Each lineage still has to do its share of the work, and each lineage still cannot.

But here is the larger problem for the drift defense, and it is the problem the second edition will press hard: the gap divergence is not the sort of variation that ILS can plausibly produce in the first place. ILS sorts ancestral polymorphisms into reciprocal fixation. A single nucleotide polymorphism in the ancestral population can sort one way in humans and another way in chimps. Fine. But a 4.8 megabase inverted transposition — like the one Yoo et al. document on gorilla chromosome 18 — is not a polymorphism that the ancestor was carrying around in heterozygous form for millions of years. It is a structural rearrangement that occurred in a specific lineage at a specific time, and either fixed or did not fix. ILS cannot sort what was never segregating. Structural variation is, with very few exceptions, post-divergence, and it must be accounted for by the same fixation arithmetic that the SNPs already break.

The defender of the standard model is now caught in a worse vise than before. Selection cannot accomplish 415 million base pairs of divergence in 6 to 9 million years. Drift would find it even harder to accomplish 415 million base pairs of divergence in 6 to 9 million years. Incomplete lineage sorting cannot account for the structural component of that divergence at all, and the SNP component it might address is still subject to the four-fold collapse already documented.

There is nowhere left to retreat to.

The Molecular Clock Was Already Broken

Long-time readers will know that the first edition led to a paper about the molecular clock — namely, that Kimura’s 1968 derivation of k = μ rests on an invalid cancellation between census N and effective N~e~ — which lead to a recalibration of the chimp-human divergence date from 6 to 7 million years to somewhere in the range of 200,000 to 400,000 years. That argument is fully developed in the Recalibrating CHLCA Divergence paper and will be incorporated into the second edition as a dedicated chapter.

What the Yoo paper adds to this picture is empirical confirmation that the standard molecular methods produce internally inconsistent results even on their own terms. Yoo et al. report ancestral effective population sizes of N~e~ = 198,000 for the human-chimp-bonobo ancestor and N~e~ = 132,000 for the human-chimp-gorilla ancestor. These figures are derived from incomplete lineage sorting modeling and from the molecular clock. They are an order of magnitude larger than any N~e~ estimate that has been derived from clock-independent methods, including the N~e~ = 3,300 we derive from ancient DNA drift variance and the N~e~ = 33,000 we derive from chimpanzee geographic drift variance.

The molecular clock estimates of N~e~ are inflated because the clock assumes k = μ. When k = μ is wrong — and it is wrong, by a factor of N divided by N~e~ — the N~e~ derived from genetic diversity absorbs the error. Yoo et al. cite the inflated number. The inflated number is what their methods can produce. Their methods cannot detect the error because the error is built into the methods.

For the second edition, this means the cascade gets cleaner. The N~e~ = 3,300 figure from ancient DNA, the N~e~ = 33,000 figure from chimpanzee subspecies drift, and the k = μ correction together yield a recalibrated chimp-human split of approximately 200 to 400 thousand years ago. At that recalibrated date, the MITTENS shortfall ratio rises from 2.3 million-fold (against the corrected divergence figure at the consensus clock date) to 40 million-fold (against the corrected divergence figure at the corrected clock date).

A theory off by a factor of 40 million is not a viable theory. It is a fairy tale.

What Goes Into the Second Edition

The second edition of PROBABILITY ZERO will include:

The corrected divergence figures throughout, citing Yoo et al. 2025 as the authoritative source. Every calculation that depended on the 35-40 million SNP count will be updated. The 1.2 percent figure will be addressed directly as a historical artifact of methodologically convenient bookkeeping, with the honest 12.5 percent figure replacing it.

A new chapter on what happens when you actually count the unalignable regions, including reproduction of the relevant gap-divergence table from Yoo’s Supplementary Figure III.12. The reader will be able to verify the source for themselves.

A dedicated chapter incorporating the N/N~e~ correction to Kimura’s substitution rate and the resulting recalibration of the chimp-human divergence date. This material previously existed as a separate working paper and will now be properly woven into the book’s main argument.

Updated MITTENS shortfall ratios reflecting both the corrected divergence figures and the recalibrated divergence date. The standard model fails by roughly 30 to 100 million-fold in the second edition, against 220,000-fold in the first.

A direct engagement with the Yoo et al. 2025 incomplete lineage sorting claim, demonstrating that the inflated ILS figure does not rescue the model and cannot in principle account for the structural divergence component.

A clarified treatment of the cascade: when the chimp-human divergence date moves, every primate divergence date calibrated against it moves with it. The hominoid slowdown is a calibration artifact. The deep evolutionary timescale of mammalian evolution depends on these calibrations. The second edition will trace these consequences explicitly.

A Note on How This Happened

The first edition was completed in late 2025. The Yoo paper was published in April 2025. The architecture of the book’s argument had been in place for six years by the time the paper was published and I wasn’t looking for revisions of the consensus numbers. I cited the 2005 consortium paper because it was the standard citation, and to my regret, I did not ever consider searching for a paper that might have been more recently published.

That is not an excuse. It is what happened. The first edition is what it is, and it is good — the argument stands at the figures used. But the second edition will be substantially better, and the argument it makes will be unanswerable in the same way the first edition’s argument could not be answered.

The leather edition deserves to be the canonical version. The trade hardcover and the ebook deserve to ship with the corrected text at the same time. Existing readers who have the first edition will own a first printing of a book that was, at the time of its publication, the most rigorous mathematical challenge ever posed to Neo-Darwinian theory. And new readers of the second edition will get an even stronger version of the argument with the most authoritative possible sources.

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A Deep and Debilitating Dive

Our old acquaintance Dr. Sandifier, whom you may recall from our John C. Wright vs Iain M. Banks debate has penned an astonishingly deep dive on the works of Neil Gaiman. Pace yourself and brace yourself, it’s longer than you would ever imagine, and enter at your own risk.

Indeed, the idea of predation lurks throughout The Doll’s House. In the first half Rose’s brother Jed is kept a prisoner by his abusive foster parents, who are in turn being influenced by one of the escaped dreams, the duo Brute and Glob, who are using his dreams for their own schemes. The second escaped dream, meanwhile, is the Corinthian, who’s become a serial killer and is at the convention. It’s also an obvious component of the prelude about Dream and Nada. This isn’t quite enough to be called a theme, especially as it’s not especially present in the arc’s denouement, but it’s still clearly, and frankly understandably, on Gaiman’s mind. Certainly it’s a more substantial unifying element than hearts or whatever.

Perhaps the most interesting instance of predation in the arc comes in a two page sequence in the Cereal Convention issue where Rose is told the “original version” of Little Red Riding Hood, in which the wolf has Red Riding Hood undress, telling her as she takes off each garment to “throw it on the fire; you won’t need it any more”—a beat that foreshadows her assault by Fun Land. Gaiman clearly means to position this story as a kind of ur-myth underlying all the subsequent serial killers. But it’s notable that in 2004 he wrote a blog post about his own identification with the wolf, arguing that he “represents an awful lot of stuff—the danger and truth of stories, for a start, and the way they change; he symbolises—not predation, for some reason—but transformation: the meeting in the wild wood that changes everything forever,” and notes that “when I was a boy, when I grew up I wanted to be a wolf,” before concluding that “The wolf defines Red Riding Hood. He makes the story happen. Without him, she’d just be another girl on her way to her grandmother’s house. And she’d leave her goodies behind, and come home, and no-one would ever have heard of her. But he’s not just her wolf: he’s all the wolves on the edge of the world, all the wolves in all the stories, all the wolves in all the dreams of wolves; flashing green eyes in the darkness, dangerously honest about what he wants: food, company, an appetite.” Even leaving aside his dubious assertion that the wolf is not a symbol of predation—certainly that’s how he uses it in The Doll’s House—this is striking in its apologism, particularly in its frankly alarming claim that the wolf is in some sense doing Red Riding Hood a favor by making her into a story.

All of this hangs uncomfortably over the first issue of Dream Country, a set of four stand-alone stories between The Doll’s House and the next arc. Called “Calliope,” the issue focuses on a writer, Richard Madoc, who, stuck and flailing on his second novel, makes a deal with Erasmus Fry, an aging writer, to acquire the muse Calliope, who Fry captured in the 1920s and had been using to fuel his own career. Madoc uses Calliope to catapult himself to an immensely successful career across numerous media and genres, ignoring her tearful pleas to be set free. Eventually Calliope contacts Morpheus, her ex-lover (as with Nada and, it will eventually emerge, literally every single romantic relationship over the course of Morpheus’s billions of years of existence, it ended badly), who frees her by cursing Madoc with an uncontrollable flood of ideas that drives him mad.

In 1990, this looked an effective horror story—enough so that DC included the script for it in the Dream Country trade paperback. With hindsight, however, what proves most unsettling about it is the degree to which the story prefigures so much of Gaiman’s own story. It’s not just the basic dynamic of a writer and a young, beautiful woman he treats as his muse while simultaneously abusing—a phenomenon that is hardly unique to Gaiman. It’s the specific details, from the way Madoc flits among genres and mediums to the way he insists that “I do tend to regard myself as a feminist writer” to the detail of Erasmus Fry insisting that the captured Calliope call him “master.” Gaiman even sent artist Kelley Jones photos of his office to use as reference for Madoc’s.

What’s crucial to note is that this is not Gaiman telling on himself. It’s not just that Gaiman was still a decade away from the sort of outright abuse being allegorized in “Calliope”; the story is plainly aware of the horror of its subject… No, “Calliope” is far more disturbing than the comic book equivalent of that monologue from the serial killer who started following women around with a knife in his pocket before escalating. It’s a warning of what’s to come, yes, but the warning is not a comment on the author’s private fantasies; it’s a comment on the degree to which he fundamentally failed to understand the magic he was taking hold of, and what its consequences might be. He understood the broad strokes—that if he could survive the tightrope grind of monthly comics for long enough and create a work of sufficient quality and impact he could change his life decisively enough to get him fully out from the towering shadow of his upbringing. He understood that writing this story, about the King of Dreams and his tragedy, would allow him to also rewrite his story—to become Neil Gaiman instead of David Gaiman’s son. But he did not understand what that meant.

Sandifier is an excellent literary historian, but the one thing I find genuinely surprising about this section of what is intended to be a larger book about Neil Gaiman and Alan Moore, is the way in which Sandifier clearly recognizes Gaiman’s penchant for ripping off literally anything and everything he can get his hands on, and yet seemingly fails to grasp that Gaiman is, at heart, nothing more than a glib and talented charlatan. He rightly condemns Gaiman for his sins, but not for his fraud.

I also find it a little curious that everyone still just accepts the idea that Gaiman is a legitimate bestselling author despite his close and obvious connections to another “bestselling” science fiction author whose massive sales over the years were, to put it mildly, orchestrated. He may be, but I suspect an in-depth investigation might reveal some level of similar orchestration.

Ironically, The Cuddled Little Vice is one of the few Hugo-nominated works that would have been worthy of the award back in the days when the Hugo actually meant something.

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Colorblind Morality

The Dark Herald observes something about Netflix that I observed more than a decade ago:

The Flattened Moral Landscape

Earned moral weight has been exchanged for default moral ambiguity.

You can ask deeper questions in a fantasy. I know this act is evil, so can the result of this action ever truly be good? Am I doing what is necessary — Or am I simply justifying sin?

It’s legitimate to ask questions like that – BUT NOT IN TOLKIEN! No, Sauron is no way shape or form a Walter White character unless you are going to literally the beginning of time. He is not a morally complex and tragic figure, he is absolute corruption that can not be negotiated with, only destroyed. It’s that clarity that gives the Lord of the Rings moral weight.

Everything in all ways forever being shades of grey is a modern infection. And in fantasy’s case patient zero is Game of Thrones. Its massive (early) success spawned lazy imitations. In fairness to Martin he built a world that earns its moral ambiguity. Loyalties that conflict colliding with political realities that create consequences that felt grounded and irreversible.

The Netflix Formula will always sand everything down all the time. So naturally, morality is flattened too. If Evil loses its teeth, and Good loses its meaning then Choice loses its consequence.

As naturally as a duck swims, Hollywood looked at “Build a world where moral complexity emerges” and truncated it into, “Make everything morally gray.” When you have no moral conflict, you only have moral fog. So difficult choices become interchangeable decisions.

More simply, if nothing can matter, then nothing will be remembered.

The truths are eternal. Consider how his observations reflect my own about creators who cannot create:

It is rather remarkable, when you think about it. Abrams is no different than Brooks is no different than Scalzi. They are not only “creators” who cannot create, they are parasites who, regardless of their technical skills, cannot even successfully execute a paint-by-the-numbers imitation. Like a colorblind painter, their moral blindness renders them fundamentally incapable of utilizing a full moral palette.

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The Irony Goes to 11

Fandom Pulse chronicles the official death of science fiction and the SFWA:

SFWA has done the unthinkable and named N.K. Jemisin, Grandmaster of Science Fiction, which they plan to celebrate at their upcoming Nebula Awards Conference, as the club continues to push into political propaganda, abandoning any semblance of being a professional science fiction writers’ organization.

N.K. Jemisin is best known as a diversity-hire in publishing with a penchant for black activism, hailed as one of the greatest writers out there despite her works being narrowly focused on race-baiting agitation…

How this helps professional science fiction writers in the least is beyond anything Fandom Pulse could come up with. We reached out to Vox Day, the editor in chief of Castalia House Publishing, and a recent science fiction #1 bestseller with his co-written Space Fleet Academy: Year One. He commented on Jemisin’s nomination, “I congratulate SFWA on completing its self-destructing speed run and rendering itself entirely irrelevant to the actual genre of science fiction literature.”

The beardy old school SF writers never should have let Anne McCaffrey convince them to change SFWA’s bylaws. The devolution of the organization is even more complete than that of what is now a minor subgenre of Romantasy.

The idea that JRR Tolkien, John C. Wright, Neal Stephenson, and Tanith Lee are not “SFWA grandmasters,” but NK Jemisin, is serves to conclusively prove that whatever that status might signify, it is not being a Grand Master of literature.

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That Sounds like Anathema

The Dark Herald explains why JRR Tolkien should be forgotten?

The Timeline Where Tolkien Dies
Let’s take a look at what should have happened to The Lord of the Rings without support before we look at how that support changed its fate.

In the 1960s, LotR has cult status among the counterculture. This was its peak.

Along come the 1970s, still riding the paperback boom. LotR stays hot on campuses, word of mouth stays strong. Tolkien is hot… But contained.

By the mid-seventies the boom has tapered off. Sales are still there, but the counterculture is dying off. It’s turning into The Thing Older Guys Are Into.

Now it’s the 80s. Generation X is in college and there has been no real generational handoff. Boomer stuff equals dull and dim. Fantasy has matured and expanded, but Gen X is reading Michael Moorcock, Tanith Lee, and Terry Brooks. All of them have been influenced by Tolkien, so there is a certain degree of backtrack—but The Lord of the Rings is becoming a niche, connoisseur’s market.

In the 1990s, the light has distinctly dimmed. Generation X has switched to grim-dark, urban fantasy. Neil Gaiman, Tanya Huff, Charles de Lint are ascendant. Tolkien is still influential, still respected, but has entered pre-obscurity.

With the 2000s come the Millennials. J.K. Rowling is blowing it so far out of the water you can’t see the ocean from space. Jim Butcher and Laurell K. Hamilton aren’t doing quite that well, but their impact is felt—while Tolkien’s is not. Sales of The Lord of the Rings are now a few thousand a year, mostly library editions. He’s known to the field, but invisible to pop culture.

He’s the guy Boomers won’t shut up about—like Timmy Hendricks or whoever.

2026—The torch has not been passed for three generations. Tolkien’s publisher dropped The Lord of the Rings a while back. The Tolkien Estate has long ago accepted market reality and self-publishes The Lord of the Rings on Kindle for $2.99 a copy or FREE on Kindle Unlimited.***

The Three Pillars of Tolkien’s Survival
There were three reasons that this alternate history never happened. And Tolkien fans only like one of them.

Hmmm… he does make a few salient points. Certainly the total failure of ARTS AND DARK AND LIGHT to break through to any sort of popular awareness despite the massive popularity of other, lesser epic fantasies tends to support this reasoning.

However, on a related note, I am pleased to be able to say that the German translation of A SEA OF SKULLS by Urs Hildebrandt is now complete, and we’ll be releasing all three AODAL books in German this summer.

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The Ending of All Endings

In Rivendell, the ground shook.

It was not a great sensation. It was merely a tremor, a shudder, the sort of thing that might have been mistaken for a cart passing on a nearby road. But the water in the fountains rippled, and the leaves of the ancient trees trembled without wind, and the light, the clear, golden light that always lay upon the valley of Imladris, suddenly dimmed, as if a cloud had passed before the sun. But there was no cloud. The sky above Rivendell was clear.

Gandalf felt it first. He was standing on the terrace where Gwaihir had departed that morning, his pipe unlit in his hand, and he had been watching the southeastern sky with an expression of quiet confidence that had been slowly, imperceptibly curdling into something else, something he had not felt in a very long time, something he had almost forgotten the shape of.

Fear.

The tremor passed through the stone beneath his feet, and the doubt became certainty, and the certainty was the worst thing he had ever felt.

Elrond emerged from the house. He did not run because Elf lords do not run, but he moved quickly with the controlled pace of someone who has received terrible news and is walking toward the place where he knows it will be confirmed. He came to stand beside Gandalf on the terrace, and for a long moment neither of them spoke. They looked to the east, toward the shadow on the horizon that was, even now, visibly darker than it had been an hour ago. It was visibly expanding to the north and to the west.

“The shadow grows,” said Elrond.

“Yes,” said Gandalf.

“Then—”

“Indeed.”

Elrond closed his eyes. When he opened them, they held something that Gandalf had never seen in them before, not in six thousand years of their acquaintance, not in the fall of Gil-galad, not in the ruin of Eregion, not even in the moment on the slopes of Orodruin when Isildur had taken the Ring and walked away to his doom. It was not despair, exactly. Elrond was far too old for despair, which is a youthful emotion that requires the ability to believe that things ought to be other than they are. It was something deeper, quieter, and more final.

“The Windlord has fallen,” said Elrond. It was not a question.

Gandalf said nothing. His hand, resting on the stone rail of the terrace, was trembling.

Behind them, in the garden, Frodo Baggins looked up from his book. He did not know what had happened. He did not yet understand the darkness that was gathering on the edge of the world, or the silence that had fallen over Rivendell as if the land itself was holding its breath. But he felt it. He felt the ground shiver, felt the light change, felt something vast and irreversible shift in the deep foundations of the world. The book slid from his hands, and he sat very still, and he was afraid.

On the terrace, Gandalf and Elrond stood side by side and watched the shadow rise in the east, and neither of them spoke, because there was nothing left to say.

The ring had been reclaimed.

The One Ring had returned to its maker.

The darkness was rising.

And soon the dark lord would rule over all Middle Earth.

THE END


And that, my friends, is why JRR Tolkien didn’t simply have the eagles fly the ring to Mordor.

QEFD

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The Great Shadow Falls

It came from behind the peak — from the far side of Orodruin, where the mountain’s bulk had hidden it from view — and it rose into the sky above the crater with a slowness that was worse than speed, because speed would have implied effort, and this creature moved as if effort were a concept that applied to lesser things.

Felgarion. Son of Ancalagon the Black.

The dragon was enormous. Not the size of Smaug, who had been large enough to blanket a town in flame, but larger, far larger, a creature from the Elder Days when the world was younger and made things of a scale it could no longer sustain. His wingspan blocked out the sky above the mountain. His scales were green, not the dark green of the elvenwoods but the deep, liquid green of emeralds, and they caught the red light of the fires below and threw it back in dark, bloody reflections. His eyes were gold and slitted and ancient and utterly without mercy. His jaws, when they opened, revealed a throat that glowed like the inside of a forge.

And on his back, between the great ridged spines that ran from skull to tail, sat Sauron.

The Dark Lord had changed. He was no longer a quiet figure in a silk robe, the chess player, the sketcher of sleeping beauty. He wore armor of black steel, chased with lines of red-gold that pulsed with the same rhythm as the mountain beneath him, and on his head sat a crown of iron, and in his hand he carried nothing at all. He wielded neither sword nor spear, because when one rides a dragon, one does not require weapons. He was terrible and beautiful in the way that a fire is beautiful when it engulfs a forest, and his eyes, visible even at this distance, burned with the same lidless intensity as the Eye atop his tower.

The dragon and his rider crested the peak of Orodruin and hung there for a moment, motionless, silhouetted against the column of smoke and ash, and the image was one that would haunt the nightmares of every creature that saw it for as long as they lived, which in some cases would not be very long at all.

Landroval saw it first. The great eagle turned and threw himself without hesitation at the dragon, not because he believed he could harm it, but because Gwaihir was below and still diving for the crack and someone had to buy him time. It was the bravest thing Landroval had ever done. It was also the last thing Landroval ever did.

Felgarion opened his mouth. The fire that came was not the fire of Smaug. It was not the hot, orange, flaming fire of a lesser wyrm. It was the fire of Ancalagon’s line, white at its core, blue at its edges, a fire that had once melted the towers of the Valar’s own fortifications in the War of Wrath. It struck Landroval in midair.

The great eagle was instantly transformed into a torch. His feathers, his flesh, the very structure of his bones — all of it caught and burned with an intensity that turned the eagle from a living creature into a shape of pure flame in the space of a single heartbeat. He did not scream. The fire was burned too fast for screams. He burned, and he fell, and the wind of his falling trailed a long ribbon of white fire down the mountainside like a comet striking the earth, and then he was gone.

Gwaihir did not look back. He could not afford to look back. The entrance to the Sammath Naur was fifty yards ahead, close enough to see the ancient stone of its lintel, close enough to feel the blast of heat from within, and he drove himself toward it with every ounce of strength his fatigued wings could summon.

He did not reach it.

Felgarion descended upon him like a green star falling. The dragon came straight down, folding his wings and dropping with a speed that belied his enormous size, and his claws — each one as long as a ship’s mast, black as volcanic glass and sharp beyond the craft of any smith — closed around Gwaihir’s body from above. The eagle thrashed. His wings beat against the dragon’s grip, his talons raked at the emerald scales, but Felgarion’s claws held him with the casual, immovable strength of the earth itself.

The dragon’s head descended.

His jaws opened, and the teeth — row upon row, black and translucent and curved like scimitars — closed around Gwaihir’s neck. There was a sound. It was a sound that should not be described, because some things are too terrible for language and this was one of them. The Windlord’s headless body went limp in the dragon’s claws.

Felgarion landed on the slopes of Orodruin with a concussion that shook the mountain to its roots. His claws released the broken body of the eagle, and it slid down the black rock and lay still, the great wings splayed and bent, the golden plumage darkened with dirt and ash, the oozing red blood in stark contrast with the exposed white bone of his severed spine.

Sauron dismounted.

He walked to the body of Gwaihir the Windlord, and he knelt beside the left talon, and he unbuckled the pale leather pouch with his nine remaining fingers. The Elven craftsmanship was exquisite. Even in the moment of his triumph, he noted this with the detached appreciation of a fellow artisan.

He opened the pouch, and drew out the Ring.

It was warm. It was always warm. But now, here, on the slopes of the mountain where it had been made, it was more than warm, it was alive, singing in a frequency that resonated with the fire beneath the stone, with the will of its maker, with the vast and ancient design that had begun in the forges of Eregion and was, in this moment, finally and irrevocably complete.

Sauron stood. He raised his fist, his right hand, the one with the missing finger and held the Ring aloft against the burning sky. The mountain roared beneath him. The clouds above Mordor, the great pall of shadow that had hung over the land for years, began to spread across the sky, rolling rapidly outward in all directions like a dark tide unleashed. The Great Eye atop Barad-dûr blazed with an exultant light that could be seen from the Shire to the Sea of Rhûn.

Behind him, Felgarion raised his head and roared, a sound that shook the very foundations of the Ephel Dúath and sent avalanches cascading down every peak in the range, and the Witch-king, circling above on his fell beast, bowed his hooded head.

On the slopes of Mount Doom, in the shadow of his dragon, with the blood of the Windlord at his feet and the One Ring burning in his fist, the Dark Lord of Mordor exulted in his victory.

DISCUSS ON SG


The Battle of Orodruin

They came to Mordor in the sixth hour.

The clouds broke apart as the eagles crossed the Ephel Dúath, and the land below them was revealed in all its desolation, with the brown, cracked wasteland of the Plateau of Gorgoroth stretching away under a sky of smoke and sullen amber, the dark mass of Barad-dûr rising in the distant northeast like a needle of black iron thrust into the heavens, and there, directly ahead, filling the southern horizon with its vast and terrible shape, Orodruin.

Mount Doom.

The mountain was active. It was always active — had been since Sauron first bent its fires to his will in the forging of the Rings — and now it breathed a column of smoke and ash into the sky that rose miles above the peak and spread into a canopy of darkness that blotted out the sun. The slopes were black and red, veined with rivulets of cooling lava that glowed like infected wounds, and from the fractured cone at the summit a dull orange light pulsed in slow, rhythmic intervals, as if the mountain itself had a heartbeat.

Gwaihir descended. The air thickened as they dropped below the cloud layer — thickened with heat and ash and the acrid stink of brimstone, and the winds became treacherous, gusting unpredictably as thermals off the mountain’s slopes collided with the cooler air from the plateau. The great eagle’s wings adjusted constantly, reading the turbulence with an instinct born of millennia, but even Gwaihir felt the strain. This was not his sky. This was a sky of fire and poison, and every breath of it burned.

Landroval flew on his right. Meneldor on his left. The three eagles were tired — six hours at altitude, at speed, without rest — but the mountain was before them and the Sammath Naur was close, a dark gash in the face of the cone visible now even through the haze of ash. Minutes. They were minutes from the end.

The Witch-king came out of the smoke.

He came from below and to the east, rising on a fell beast that screamed as it climbed — a sound like iron tearing, like the death cry of something that had never truly been alive. He had been waiting in the lee of the mountain, hidden by the ash plume, and his timing was precise. The fell beast’s vast wings beat the fouled air and drove it upward on a collision course with Meneldor, the youngest and outermost of the three eagles, and behind him came two more — Uvatha and Adûnaphel on their own mounts, spreading wide to flank.

“Nazgûl!” The cry came from Landroval, less a word than a shriek in the eagle’s tongue, a sound of warning and fury that cut through the roar of the mountain. Gwaihir banked hard, and the formation broke.

Meneldor turned to meet the Witch-king. It was the brave choice and the wrong one. The fell beast was larger than Meneldor, uglier, and utterly without fear, driven by a will that was not its own, and the Witch-king rode it with the cold expertise of a warrior who had been killing from the air since before the founding of Gondor. They met in a tangle of wings and talons above the eastern slope, and for a moment the two shapes became one, a thrashing, screaming knot of feather and membrane and raking claws, and then they broke apart with Meneldor bleeding.

The wound was along his left side, where the fell beast’s claws had torn through feather and flesh to the muscle beneath. Meneldor’s wing faltered. He dropped, caught himself, dropped again. The Witch-king circled above him, patient, and the fell beast’s mouth hung open, trailing ropes of dark saliva, waiting.

But the Witch-king had made a mistake. He had committed to Meneldor, and in doing so he had left Uvatha and Adûnaphel to deal with Gwaihir and Landroval alone.

They were not enough.

Landroval struck Uvatha’s fell beast from above and behind with the full force of a diving eagle — talons extended, wings folded, falling like a bolt of golden lightning. The impact broke the fell beast’s spine. The sound it made was extraordinary — a wet, structural crunch that was felt as much as heard — and the black-scaled creature folded in on itself like a thing made of paper and fell, spinning, trailing a banner of dark blood, and Uvatha the Horseman, who had once ridden the plains of Khand with an army at his back, fell with it, his black robes streaming behind him, silent, and not without dignity, until the slopes of Orodruin received him and he was gone from the sky.

Gwaihir took Adûnaphel’s mount head-on. The fell beast lunged for him with its serpentine neck and snapping jaws, and Gwaihir caught its long neck in both his talons and wrenched in opposite directions. The fell beast’s neck broke with a sound like a green branch snapping, and Gwaihir released it and beat upward as the dead creature tumbled past him, its wings still twitching in purposeless spasm. Adûnaphel fell screaming, and her screams gradually faded as she plunged into the fires that coursed along the mountain’s lower slopes.

Two Nazgûl down. The Witch-king, seeing his support destroyed in a matter of seconds, pulled back. He drove his fell beast away from the wounded Meneldor and climbed, circling wide, and for a moment the sky above Orodruin was clear.

“Go!” Landroval screamed at Gwaihir. “The crack! Now!”

The Windlord turned toward the Sammath Naur. He could see it clearly — the great opening in the mountainside, dark and wide, lit from within by the deep red glow of the fires below. The air above it shimmered with heat. He folded his wings into a shallow dive, angling his descent toward the entrance, and the pouch on his talon — that small, exquisitely crafted pouch of pale Elvish leather — swung beneath him like a pendulum. Within it, the Ring seemed to pulse, seemed to burn, seemed to cry out in a voice that only the mountain could hear.

Four hundred yards. three hundred. He could feel the heat now, rising from the cone in waves that distorted the air and made the dark opening dance and waver. Two hundred yards. He adjusted his angle, spreading his wings to brake, preparing to stoop through the entrance and release the pouch into the abyss below —

And then the shadow fell over him.

DISCUSS ON SG


The Summons of the Sleeper

For a moment Sauron stood motionless in the dim library, and the only sound was the crackle of the fire and the slow breathing of Lúthiel asleep in her chair. He looked at her. He looked at the sketch on the desk — the careful charcoal lines, the sleeping face, the small frown. He had been happy, he realized. For perhaps an hour, in the quiet of the early morning, drawing a face he had studied for nine hundred years, he had been something very like happy.

He picked up the velvet cloth and covered the palantír. Then he left the library.

The staircase to the upper chamber of Barad-dûr was a spiral of black stone, nine hundred steps from the library level to the pinnacle, and Sauron climbed it at a pace that would have killed a mortal man. The tower narrowed as he ascended. The walls pressed closer. The air grew hotter and heavier, thick with the ambient sorcery that sustained the great working at the tower’s crown, and the darkness itself seemed to acquire texture — to become not merely the absence of light but a substance, a medium, the stuff from which the Eye was woven.

He emerged into the chamber at the top.

It was a circular room, open to the sky on all sides, and in its center stood the iron framework that held the Eye, a vast apparatus of dark metal and darker will, shaped like a lens or a pupil, within which burned the manifestation of Sauron’s searching gaze. When he was not here, the Eye was sustained by stored magics, turning slowly, scanning the horizon with a dim and general awareness. But when he was here at the summit, when he stepped behind the framework and placed his will into it like a hand into a glove, then the Eye blazed.

It blazed now.

The summit of Barad-dûr erupted with sorcery. Not the visible light of sun or star but a radiance of another kind entirely, a piercing, lidless, wrathful power that swept across the plains of Gorgoroth like a searchlight and leapt outward over the mountains of shadow, out across the brown lands and the wilderlands, out over the Misty Mountains and the vales and the rivers, reaching, seeking, burning through cloud and mist and the thin veils of Elvish concealment as if they were tissue.

He found them in less than a minute.

Three golden shapes, high above the clouds, south of the Gladden Fields and descending slowly as they crossed the eastern foothills of the Misty Mountains. They were flying in a loose formation, with the largest in the center and the other two flanking, and they were fast, impossibly fast, the wind of the upper atmosphere carrying them eastward like arrows loosed from a bow of infinite draw.

Gwaihir. He could see the great bird clearly through the Eye, every feather, every beat of those enormous wings, and there, dangling from the left talon, radiated power that reflected the light of the Eye’s own gaze like a mirror reflecting a torch, the Ring. The One Ring. His Ring. The band of gold he had forged in the heart of Orodruin in the time when the Middle Earth was young, into which he had poured his cruelty and his will

For one momentary, burning instant Sauron felt something that was neither fear and nor the cold calculation that had defined his existence for millennia. It was something much closer to fury. The sheer indignity of it astonished him. The supreme masterwork of the Dark Lord, the instrument through which the world would be remade in shadow and fire, hanging from an eagle’s foot like a woman’s ankle-charm, and carted over Middle-earth like a parcel.

The moment passed. The Eye narrowed, and its gaze locked onto Gwaihir with a focus that made the air between them hum, and Sauron began to calculate distances and speeds and the terrible, dwindling arithmetic of time.

The Witch-king would reach Orodruin in time. The fell beasts were slower than the eagles in the open sky, but Minas Morgul was closer to the mountain than Gwaihir was now, and the Nazgûl did not need to catch the eagles, only to be waiting for them when they arrived. It should be enough. But it might not.

Sauron had not survived three Ages of the world by trusting in what might be.

He withdrew his will from the Eye — not entirely, leaving it fixed on Gwaihir like a burning pin through a map — and sent his thought downward. Not to the war rooms or the forges or the barracks. Deeper. Down through the foundations of Barad-dûr, down through the bedrock of the Plateau of Gorgoroth, down into the roots of the earth where the stone was hot and slow and older than memory. Down to the place where something vast had been sleeping since before the tower was built, since before Mordor was Mordor, since the ruin of Thangorodrim and the breaking of the North, when a young dragon had crawled south through the bowels of the world with his father’s fire still burning in his blood and had found, in the deep dark beneath a plain of ash, a place to rest.

Felgarion the Wicked. The green-scaled son of Ancalagon the Black, whose wings had blotted out the sky above Angband, whose fall had broken the towers of Thangorodrim into rubble. Ancalagon was long dead, slain by Eärendil in the War of Wrath, but his son had survived, smaller than his sire but mightier than Smaug, mightier than Glaurung, mightier than any wyrm that had taken to the skies in the recorded Ages of the world. He had slept beneath the foundations of Barad-dûr for five thousand years, dreaming of fire and ruin in the timeless way of dragons, and Sauron had let him sleep, because there had never been a need sufficient to justify waking him.

Until now.

Sauron spoke. Not aloud, for the word he used had no sound, belonging to a language older than the Black Speech, older than the tongues of Elves, a language of pure will that had been spoken in the forges of Aulë before the world was made. It was a name. A command. A promise. It passed through stone and magma and the compacted silence of millennia, and it reached the place where the dragon lay coiled in the dark, his scales green as emeralds, his closed eyes like furnace doors banked and waiting.

And the great beast heard his voice, and woke.

DISCUSS ON SG