Tag: war

As Patreon has learned, poking the big bear is never a good idea.

QUESTION: At present, there are roughly 40,000 US-NATO troops massed along the Russian border conducting military exercises while scores of Russian tanks, artillery and an estimated 85,000 Russian troops are now located about 25 miles from Ukraine’s eastern border. Both armies are on hair-trigger alert and prepared for any sudden provocation. If the Ukrainian Army invades the Russian-speaking region of Ukraine (Donbas), Moscow will likely respond.

So, will there be a conflagration in the Ukraine this spring and, if so, how will Putin respond? Will he limit the scope of his campaign to the Donbas or push onward to Kiev?

ISRAEL SHAMIR: If the Russian army crosses the Ukrainian border, it won’t stop in the Donbas. The war will be brief and the Ukraine will be split into pieces. But will it happen?

Russia’s totem animal, the Bear, is a strong and peaceful animal that is not easily aroused, but once provoked, it is unstoppable. Russian rulers have typically fit this image. They weren’t adventurous, but level-headed and prudent. Putin, who is the quintessential Russian ruler, is risk-averse. He won’t start a war he never wanted to begin with, but he will act decisively if he needs to do so. Consider 2014, after the Ukrainian coup: the lawful Ukrainian president Mr Yanukovich ran to Russia and asked Putin to help him regain power. At that time, the Ukrainian army was weak and Russia could have easily retaken the country without facing any significant resistance. But, surprisingly, Putin did not give the order to take Kiev.

Putin is unpredictable. He ordered the seizure of Crimea despite the counsel of his advisors. It was an unexpected move, and it worked like a charm. He also pummeled Georgia in 2008 after Saakashvili invaded South Ossetia. This was another surprise move that succeeded better than anyone could have imagined. If the Ukrainians try to retake Donbas, the Russian army will beat them badly and continue on to Kiev. The presence of NATO’s troops will not deter Putin.

As for the Democrats, they can push Kiev to attack, but they will end up losing the Ukraine in the process. If the point is to poison relations between Russia and Europe, they can try to do so, but if they think the Russo-Ukrainian war is going to drag on, they’re mistaken. And if they think Putin won’t defend the Donbas, they’ve made a serious miscalculation.

I think Shamir’s perspective on the neoclowns is correct. Being bigtime bluffers themselves – literally everything they do is a bluff – they can’t imagine that everyone else isn’t bluffing. So, they assume that Putin is going to either back down, or at most, defend the Donbas in the same way South Ossetia was defended.

However, Putin and the Russian people now have considerably more experience of the neoclown foreign policy and better understand what Clownworld is. This was the key phrase of the interview, in my opinion: Russians think that a big war is unavoidable, so it’s probably better to have the Ukraine under Moscow’s control before that war breaks out. The US is an enemy; that is the feeling in Russia.  

I don’t know why anyone bothers even trying to make agreements with the US government. They’ve been breaking them regularly since the 18th century:

Since President Biden is breaking the US-Taliban peace deal by pushing back the May 1st withdrawal deadline to September 11th, the Taliban said it is ready to attack US troops again and turn the final months of Washington’s almost twenty-year-old war into a “nightmare.”

Mullah Salih Khan, a Taliban commander in the Helmand Province, told The Daily Beast on Wednesday that the group is prepared to strike “very much prepared to strike” US and Afghan government forces, warning that the Taliban will turn Afghanistan “into a nightmare” for them.

Mullah Mujahid Rahman, a Taliban subcommander from the Ghazni province, also said the group was ready to fight the US. He said the US has “proven they can’t be trusted after retreating from the May 1st deadline” and that the Taliban is willing to “fight till the end” of the US occupation. “We have the pride of defeating about 100,000 invaders from [different] countries in Afghanistan. A few thousand won’t be a problem at all,” he said.

Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid delivered a warning via Twitter on Wednesday. “If the agreement is breached and foreign forces fail to exit our country on the specified date, problems will certainly be compounded and those whom failed to comply with the agreement will be held liable,” he said.

The USA wasn’t always the Evil Empire. But it obviously is now. Although it’s more of a Retarded Evil Clown Empire Wearing a Dress Without Bothering to Shave Its Legs.

Even though Biden has, to a certain extent, backed down, The Saker is still concerned about the prospects of war over Ukraine:

Bad news all around today.  The US has just slammed provocative sanctions against Russia even though the US ambassador to Moscow was summoned to the Foreign Ministry and clearly told that if the US imposes more sanctions there will be no meeting between Putin and Biden.

Then there is this: the US has informed the Turkish authorities that they will not send two USN ships into the Black Sea.  This is politically a good sign, but in military terms, this is what the US should be doing if they were preparing for war.  Why?  Because any USN ship in the Black Sea at the moment of the initiation of a conflict would be sunk withing minutes: not only do the Russians have formidable missiles – Bal and Bastion – they had SIX advanced diesel-electric submarines of the 636.3 class ready to “greet” them.  Keep in mind that engaging submarines without air cover is another form of collective suicide.

So, the phone call was a deception and the US is still going down the road towards war with Russia.

In my professional opinion, what I see is a joint preparation by the Ukronazis and the USA (along with the UK and Poland) to attack the Donbass and force a conflict upon Russia.

It is very hard for me to see how a war could be avoided.

UPDATE: Biden has just declared a national emergency in the USA in response to the Russian threat.  He will make a special address to the nation tonight.

I don’t have an opinion, simply because I have no confidence about who is actually calling the shots behind the scenes of the Biden Not-Administration. If it’s China or the neoclowns, there will be war. If it is the US military, there will not be war.

Biden, of course, has no idea what is going on. The question is, who is writing his script? 

The neoclowns are belatedly beginning to realize that a proxy war with Russia over Ukraine is not going to end well for them or their clown-puppet regime:

Ukraine has warned Russia that it will bear ‘very painful’ consequences if it invades as Vladimir Putin continues to mass his forces in eastern Europe. Dmytro Kuleba, the country’s foreign minister, added that Moscow is ‘openly’ threatening Ukraine with ‘destruction’ by stationing 80,000 troops along its border – with more arriving every day.

He issued the warning following a meeting with the foreign ministers of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – NATO allies in the region – saying ‘the four of us condemn the exacerbation of the situation by Russia.’ 

‘The world is on the side of Ukraine and international law, and this is one of the elements of restraining Russia from reckless actions,’ he added.

He spoke as Joe Biden prepares to slap sanctions on Russia in response to bounties put on American troops in Afghanistan, attempts to interfere in US elections, and the SolarWinds cyber attack of federal government data which US intelligence services blame on Moscow. Sanctions are likely to include the expulsion of 10 Russians from the US including diplomats, extending a ban on US banks trading Russian sovereign debt, and targeted measures against 30 Russian entities, US media reported, saying the move could happen as soon as today.

In response, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that Mosow will respond in kind to any ‘illegal’ sanctions, adding that it ‘will not help’ the prospect of talks between Biden and Putin. He added that it is ‘too early’ to talk about de-escalating tensions along the Ukraine border despite Biden’s calls for restraint earlier in the week….

In another sign that Biden is now softening his tone towards Moscow, the deployment of two US destroyers into the Black Sea was cancelled last night.

Turkey had originally confirmed that Washington had asked for permission for two warships – the USS Donald Cook and USS Roosevelt – to transit through straits which it polices and into the Black Sea in a move that was assumed to be a deterrent to Putin.

But last night Turkey said the U.S. Embassy in Ankara had notified the foreign ministry of the decision, without giving a reason. U.S. officials were not immediately available for comment. 

Once more, we see Vladimir Putin demonstrating the difference between influence and power. It’s all fun and games until someone sends 100,000 troops supported by air, armor, and artillery on your border. However, it’s important to note that the USA is now clearly in a state of cold war with both Russia and China, only this time the economic, technology, and demographic trends are not in its favor.

Russia issues a pair of very clear warnings to the US about its continued provocations over Ukraine:

Two detachments of the Russian Army, along with three airborne units, are ready to act in the event tensions with the West escalate into full-blown fighting, Moscow announced on Tuesday following a surprise inspection of troops.

After paying a visit to the soldiers, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu told journalists that the personnel met the standards required for the situation. “The troops have shown full readiness and ability to fulfill the tasks of ensuring the country’s military security,” he said. “Currently, these associations and formations are engaged in drills and exercises.”

Shoigu said that the redeployments had taken place “in response to the military activity of the alliance that threatens Russia.” The move comes amid escalating tension with the US-led NATO bloc and after bloody fighting in eastern Ukraine between Kiev’s forces and two breakaway republics….

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told journalists that there is “absolutely nothing” that requires the Americans’ presence near his country’s Black Sea shore, accusing the White House of trying to provoke Moscow.

“Provocative in the literal sense of the word: they are testing our strength, playing on our nerves. They won’t succeed,” he said, noting that Washington would also be better off staying away.

“It will be for their own good,” Ryabkov added, also dubbing Washington as Moscow’s “adversary.” His use of the term marks a departure from Moscow’s usual manner of referring to the Americans as “partners.” He also accused Washington of “doing everything to undermine Russia’s position in the international arena.”

The official’s words come after the US told Turkey that two American warships would pass through the Bosporus Strait into the Black Sea next week.

It is often said that there is stupid, there is very stupid, and there is invade Russia stupid. The rule is very simple and straightforward. If your name is not “the Great Chingiss Khan”, you do not invade Russia under any circumstances.

And especially not because a Jewish comedian holding political office is sufficiently ignorant of military matters to start a war on its borders. In Ukraine, Clownworld is not a metaphor, it is quite literally Clownworld.

Vladimir Putin has made it clear that Russia does not intend to fight its next war inside its borders. And I don’t think he’s referring to Ukraine either.

UPDATE: this doesn’t bode terribly well.

The Russian navy will hold snap live-fire drills in the Black Sea today as the first of two US warships is expected to arrive, the military has announced. Two missile ships – the Graivoron and Vyshny Volochek – will take part in target practice alongside the missile hovercraft Samum, accompanied by the frigate Admiral Makarov and mine-sweeping ship Ivan Golubets, the Russian navy’s Black Sea fleet command said.

The sinking of a pair of destroyers is unlikely to awake the US public to the fact that the US military is no longer the global monopower it was from 1989 to 2015. Which is probably why the Russians won’t bother to sink them unless it becomes absolutely necessary:

I suspect that is the deal that the Biden not-Adminstration made with its paymasters in order for its support of his fake election. One defense expert even anticipates an invasion of Taiwan within three years:

Beijing’s incursions are part of a series of dry runs in preparation for an invasion of Taiwan, John Mills, former director of cybersecurity policy, strategy, and international affairs at the Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense, told The Epoch Times.

Mills projects that these exercises could culminate in a large-scale dry run in the next two years. These dry runs are necessary, Mills said, given the complexity of amphibious landing operations—as well as the fact that the Chinese military has never conducted a forced landing on a hostile power in a real-life situation before.

Any amphibious assault on Taiwan may also involve swarms of Chinese civilian merchant vessels and fishing boats, he said.

He believes an invasion could come in the next three years—much sooner than the six-year estimate given by U.S. Adm. Philip Davidson, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), during a congressional hearing in early March.

“If they haven’t done it in 10 years, I think Xi will probably have been removed from office. I think even six years is pushing it,” Mills said. He added that Xi could come under pressure to attack Taiwan to deflect attention away from internal problems, such as an economic crisis.

U.S. Adm. John Aquilino, the nominee to replace Davidson as head of INDOPACOM, at his confirmation hearing in March declined to endorse Davidson’s six-year estimate, but said the threat of a Chinese invasion is “much closer to us than most think.”

I would assume the plan is to invade Taiwan while their asset is still believed to be Commander-in-Chief of the US military and capable of misdirecting it. This explains why Ukraine is being actively encouraged to launch a suicidal war against Russia while asking to join NATO, as war in Ukraine would commit the US military to an unwinnable war against Russia, thereby providing China a free hand to operate in the South China Sea without US interference.

 Ron Paul asks “why is the Biden Administration pushing Ukraine to attack Russia?”

The unhinged US “experts” behind the 2014 coup against the elected Ukrainian president are back in power and they are determined to finish the job – even if it means World War III! The explicit US backing of Ukraine’s military ambitions in the region are a blank check to Kiev.

But it is a check that Kiev would be wise to avoid cashing. Back in 1956 the US government pumped endless propaganda into Hungary promising military backing for an uprising against its Soviet occupiers. When the Hungarians, believing Washington’s lies, did rise up they found themselves all alone and facing Soviet retaliation.

Despite the cruel US propaganda, at least Eisenhower was wise enough to realize that no one would benefit from a nuclear war over Budapest.

Why is it any of our business whether Crimea is part of Ukraine or part of Russia? Why is it any of our business if the Russian-speaking population of eastern Ukraine prefer being aligned with Russia?

Why, for that matter, are unproven allegations of Russian meddling in our elections a violation of the “rules-based international order” but an actual US-backed coup against an elected Ukrainian government is not?

We are seeing foreign policy made by Raytheon and the other US military contractors, through cut-outs in government like Austin and others. Feckless US foreign policy “experts” believe their own propaganda about Russia and are on the verge of taking us to war over it.

It seems as if Americans are sleepwalking through this dangerous minefield. Let us hope they soon wake up before we’re all blown up.

Because the Trotskyites who fled the Soviet Union after Stalin won the intra-communist power struggle and infested the United States now run the Biden administration and they have been seeking to use the US military to take their revenge ever since.

As Ron Paul assiduously avoids noticing, the third- and fourth-generation followers of Leon Trotsky who call themselves “neoconservatives” and include people such as Bill Kristol, Michael Ledeen, Ben Shapiro, and Doug Emhoff are entirely responsible for advocating these would-be wars on Syria, Russia, and Iran. It is not the defense contractors, who strongly tend to prefer Cold War-style arms buildups that don’t actually involve their overpriced products being put to the test.

Russia sends a clear message to the neoclowns: whatever you start in the Ukraine, we will finish:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday that any attempts to start a new military conflict in Ukraine’s war-torn east could end up destroying Ukraine, the TASS news agency reported.

Translation: Knock it off, neoclowns, or we’ll take the whole of the Ukraine, even though we don’t want it. 

Ukraine knows they have no chance against Russia, but its foreign leaders can get paid well by offering up its land and people to serve as bait in the neoclowns’ endless War on Russia

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba announced this week that the country’s National Security and Defense Council had approved a strategy that is aimed at retaking Crimea and reintegrating the strategically important peninsula.

Crimea, a peninsula in the Black Sea, was annexed by Russia in March 2014, following a US-backed, far-right coup in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.

Announcing the move on Twitter, Kuleba wrote, “The signal is clear: we don’t just call on the world to help us return Crimea, Ukraine makes its own dedicated and systemic efforts under President [Volodymyr] Zelensky’s leadership.”

As part of its “3 pillars” strategy for retaking Ukraine, Kuleba notably stated that Zelensky’s administration sought “full Ukrainian sovereignty” over not just Crimea but that of the port city of Sevastopol as well, which serves as the home of the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet.

Following Kuleba’s comments, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced via Twitter the creation of a Crimean Platform Initiative which the Ukrainian government described as “a new consultative and coordination format initiated by Ukraine to improve the efficiency of the international response to the occupation of Crimea, respond to growing security challenges, step up international pressure on Russia, prevent further human rights violations, protect victims of the occupying power and to achieve the de-occupation of Crimea and its return to Ukraine.”

The seeds of failure are always planted in the soil of previous success.