Tag: war

Yes, The Russians Will Win

Even the official broadcasters of The Narrative are beginning to recognize that Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable, however unpalatable it might be.

At one point in the novel “Sign of the Four,” Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s inimitable detective Sherlock Holmes explains and demonstrates to Dr. Watson his method of observation and deduction. Confronted with an apparently inexplicable circumstance, Dr. Watson is utterly perplexed. He simply cannot understand how the event in question came to pass, given the facts as he understands them and the laws of nature. Slightly irritated at his plodding companion’s bafflement, Holmes once again shares with him the methodological key to solving all such mysteries: “When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”

And the truth is, once we have eliminated all the impossible scenarios, the least improbable outcome of the war in Ukraine is a Russian victory.

Note that I did not say such an outcome would be desirable. Russia’s inevitable victory is anything but. Nor did I say it would be total. The outcome of this war is going to fall far short of the Kremlin’s initial hopes and expectations. Nor, finally, did I say it would be without significant cost. Any conceivable Russian victory now will entail such a loss of blood and treasure that it will have to be judged Pyrrhic at best.

But it will be a victory nonetheless — and we in the West had better come to grips with that hard truth.

The fact that Russia will defeat Ukraine militarily is hardly news. That was always inevitable, with or without Clown World sanctions and weapons shipments, as I and many others have pointed out from the onset. But what is informative here is the fact that the Narrative has now shifted to accommodate this reality, which suggests that Phase One of the larger conflict between the Sino-Russian Alliance and Clown World is coming to a close.

My interpretation – and it is only that, an educated guess – is that the Clown World powers are desperately trying to convince Russia and China to return to the economic fold, and they are dangling the possibility of their acceptance of Russia’s gains as bait in order to prevent the systemic failure of their neo-liberal rules-based order that will take place when Russia and China actively reject the system.

Brussels is seeking to strike the right balance between hurting Russia’s economy as much as possible and minimizing the secondary effects on European economies.

Remember, all of the damage that has been done to the ex-West so far is self-inflicted. Neither Russia nor China are seeking to inflict economic harm, although they are both in excellent positions to do so at any time. So, will they take the bait, focus on internal development, and allow Clown World to survive until the inevitable next crisis? I would tend to doubt it, but we will have to simply wait and see.

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World War Clown

WWIII is WWC. In which Ishmael examines the next two years of Clown World’s manufactured crises, out of which the globalists hope their new-and-improved New World Order will be born like a phoenix rising from the ashes of its previous iteration:

The past 2+ years have been an example of evil’s influence increasing. Or more accurately, the past two years have made evil obvious to more people.

This war goes by several names. Vox Day refers to it as the war against the good, the beautiful and true. I call it the War on America, but we are not the only country targeted. Widespread clown world is proof of that.

The purebloods lost the Coof War decisively. The War on America accelerated because of that defeat. Many of us are demoralized which makes victory harder this time. There are fewer soldiers available, the stakes are higher, and it involves the rest of the world. I don’t know if it can be won without a legitimate leader arising. If one doesn’t, there could be civil unrest in the United States that makes previous summers’ riot seasons look like vacations.

Satanic minions are sabotaging America from within. We know who they are, no need to belabor that point here. Instead, I want to provide a roadmap for the next battlefield: Manufactured Crisis 2022 – 2023. My goal is not to be right. It is to provide tools so you know what to watch for and prepare yourselves as best you can.

The War on America’s battle plan has three milestones:

1. Negate America’s purchasing power

2. Remove things they can buy

3. Eliminate Americans themselves. This is also a victory condition.

How can such a nasty, complicated operation be broken down into three goals?

We are all broke now. Purchasing power eroded steadily over time and accelerated these past two years. Rent, groceries, and fuel are all pounding people’s wallets. As long as diesel remains high, so will every good in America.

The Russian sanctions are exacerbating the situation. Every other foreign company sees that and will demand payment in their local currency. All those US dollars sequestered overseas will flow back into the American money supply, deflating our purchasing power more.

Milestone number one is accomplished. If an individual hasn’t experienced yet, it’s only a matter of time.

This isn’t something that you’re going to be able to avoid or escape, no matter where you are in the world. Not even the elites building their bunkers in New Zealand will be able to avoid the inevitable consequences of the Great Bifurcation. And if you want to survive the turmoil, you’re only going to be able to do so by standing strong with others who refuse to submit to the madness of Clown World. The time for laying low and sitting silently on fences is over.

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Who Deceives Wins

Even relatively recent history is fake and gay. The great hero of the SAS was a complete fictional construct:

In 1942, a downtrodden Britain desperately needed a hero. The widespread respect – even grudgingly – enjoyed in Britain by charismatic General Erwin Rommel, the commander of Hitler’s Afrika Korps, was a source of particular frustration to Prime Minister Winston Churchill.

Rommel’s capture of the Libyan port of Tobruk that June, leading to the surrender of 34,000 men to his German-Italian troops, was one of the worst moments not just of the western desert campaign but of Britain’s entire war.

What was required, in Churchill’s mind, was a counter to the adulation of Rommel. A soldier who was not just Rommel’s match but who was his superior in guile and courage. A warrior of whom the British could be proud.

That September, newspapers carried a scoop: the tale of the ‘Phantom Major’, a military mastermind whose covert team of guerrilla soldiers was striking terror into the hearts of Rommel and his men.

The major in question was David Stirling, and his new elite fighting squad the Special Air Service, or SAS, would become one of the most celebrated units of the British Army with its fearless motto Who Dares Wins.

Stirling was described as ‘the newest terror of the desert’ who, ‘towering 6ft 4in, is as lithe as a panther, a former boxing champion, one of the finest horsemen in the Army’. He was fluent in German, capable of fooling his way through enemy checkpoints and was, they claimed, a veritable ‘Robin Hood in battledress’.

In the space of a year, Stirling had risen from a humble lieutenant to a major with a Distinguished Service Order – a truly startling ascent. For, in reality, David Stirling was a man of limited capacity with a troubling, error-strewn history.

He might have been the Phantom Major to the British tabloids but to his soldiers, Stirling was a liability who had repeatedly gambled with their lives in his pursuit of glory. His languor and fondness for drinking and gambling in the clubs of Cairo, meanwhile, had earned him the nickname ‘the Giant Sloth’.

Born to a wealthy aristocratic family whose ancestral home was Keir House in Perthshire, Stirling, the fourth of six siblings, had underwhelmed since childhood, overshadowed academically and in charm by his older brothers Bill and Peter. His mother Margaret Fraser was also a force of nature whose father, the 13th Lord Lovat, had been aide- de-camp to Queen Victoria.

When war broke out, Stirling joined the Scots Guards but struggled from the start. He lacked the discipline to knuckle down and submit to the drudgery of drilling. Meanwhile Bill, who had also trained with the Scots Guards, submitted proposals to the War Office to develop a guerrilla warfare training programme to prepare troops for special missions.

This was set up at the Commando Special Training Centre at Inverailort House in the remote north of Scotland, and among the first recruits – thanks to Bill’s intervention, and to the relief of the Scots Guards – was Stirling.

Bill quickly discovered what the Guards had known for several months: David Stirling was indolent and temperamental, a disruptive influence. Now it was Bill’s turn to look for a way to offload his wastrel sibling. The man who would, indirectly, prove his salvation was Winston Churchill.

Keep this little historical detail in mind if you’re ever tempted to fall for the grand heroics of the Navy SEALs or any other brave and daring special forces that are publicized for the benefit of the public. Remember, the Official Story is always false in at least some important detail.

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Unrestricted War on Russia

It appears the rulers of the Imperial USA have come to understand the Chinese principles of Unrestricted Warfare, or as the Russian Foreign Minister calls it, Total War.

The confrontation between Western nations and Russia amounts to “total war,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Friday during a meeting with the heads of Russian regions. Russian society and major political forces support the government’s decision to face this challenge, he added.

Western nations “are doubling, tripling, and quadrupling their efforts to deter our nation. They use a wide array of tools, from unilateral economic sanctions to totally deceitful propaganda in the global media,” Lavrov said, noting that “low-level Russophobia, which to our deepest regret is promoted by a number of governments, has risen to unprecedented levels.”

“The West has declared total war against us, against the entire Russian world. Nobody even hides this fact now,” Lavrov stated.

Lavrov also noted that the crisis has exposed the true nature of the promises given to Russia 30 years ago, after the collapse of the USSR. “We now see the value of all the talk about universal values and the need to turn Europe into a common home from the Atlantic to the Pacific.” No one should have illusions about the attitude of the US and its allies towards Russia, he added.

I’ve repeatedly pointed out that the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is not merely about Ukraine’s designs on Crimea and the Donbass, or Russia’s designs on Ukraine, anymore than Nazi Germany’s conflict with Czechoslovakia was merely about the Sudentenland. The globalist imperials have been preying on Russia since 1991, and attempting to undermine its government since Putin unexpectedly took power in 2000. Putin and his generals clearly recognize that Ukraine is not the core problem, it is merely the most immediate manifestation of the problem.

Dmitry Trenin, a member of Russia’s Foreign and Defense Policy Council, clearly understands the scale and import of the situation:

The challenge Russia is facing has no equivalents in our history. It’s not just that we have neither allies nor even potential partners left in the West. Frequent comparisons with the Cold War of the mid and late 20th century are inaccurate and rather disorienting. In terms of globalization and new technology, the modern form of confrontation is not only of a larger scale than the previous one, it is also much more intense. Ultimately, the main field of the ongoing battle is located inside the country.

The asymmetry between the opponents is huge, particularly the imbalance between the forces and capabilities available to them. Based on this, the US and its allies have set much more radical goals than the relatively conservative containment and deterrence strategies used toward the Soviet Union. They are in fact striving to exclude Russia from world politics as an independent factor, and to completely destroy the Russian economy.

The success of this strategy would allow the US-led West to finally resolve the “Russia question” and create favorable prospects for victory in the confrontation with China.

Such an attitude on the part of the adversary does not imply room for any serious dialogue, since there is practically no prospect of a compromise, primarily between the United States and Russia, based on a balance of interests. The new dynamic of Russian-Western relations involves a dramatic severance of all ties, and increased Western pressure on Russia (the state, society, economy, science and technology, culture, and so on) on all fronts. This is no longer a source of discord between the opponents of the Cold War period, who then became (unequal) partners. It looks more like the drawing of a clearer dividing line between them, with the West refusing to accept even the perfunctory neutrality of individual countries.

China, India, Iran, and most of the unaligned nations now recognize both the evil nature of the corrupted West and its hostile intentions toward them as well, which is why they are also preparing for war against it. Note: I do not subscribe to what I consider to be the absurdly stupid idea that China is intending to invade the USA; the various numbers listed in the leaked transcript are simply not “too extensive” for an invasion of Taiwan and the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu  islands.

Leaked audio that appears to have originated from a meeting of China’s top war generals [a regional government authority – VD] reveals elaborate plans for a land invasion in the near future, waged by the People’s Liberation Army and augmented with cyber warfare, orbital space weapons and the activation of CCP civilians currently embedded in corporations and governments around the world.

China’s war leader [provincial committee member] makes strong reference to the psychological operations that will be waged by their government to control the population as they wage war against the West:

First, we need to strengthen the protection in political field. Look at the recent several regional wars, especially the Russian-Ukrainian conflict war situation. If you look at the big picture, the United States and the West will try everything to slander us, smear us, in an attempt to confuse right and wrong, to shake our will to win a just and decisive battle. We must give full play to public opinion, legal struggle, psychological war and militia teams to strengthen the guidance of public opinion and psychological protection, and cohesion of patriotic support for the positive energy of the military front.

The fact that the author of the linked article doesn’t even understand that the meeting is of the Standing Committee of the Provincial Party Committee for Guangdong Province, not the Chinese military leadership, and that he clearly hasn’t fully read or understood the nature of the transcript, which clearly shows the regional authorities attempting to determine how to go about handling their various supporting roles when the invasion happens, doesn’t take away from the way in which the transcript – which Chinese experts have told me appears to either be genuine or a very convincing and detailed fake – indicates Chinese preparations for a major military effort that will soon open WWIII’s second front by bringing it into direct conflict with the US government and military.

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Checkmate, Putin

The Russian military has no response for the US military’s stunning and brave transwarrior slay queens:

The U.S. Air Force is hosting Drag Queen Story Time at Ramstein Air Base Library in Germany.

“We’re celebrating Pride Month at the Ramstein Library with Drag Queen Storytime! Join us with special guest reader Stacey Teed! Be sure to wear your brightest and most colorful outfits!,” says the Facebook event announcement, which was posted by the Ramstein & Vogelweh Air Force Libraries page.

This suddenly puts all those insane stories from Roman history about Nero and other imperial freaks into perspective, doesn’t it? What future reader would ever believe that in a time of war, when its ally is being badly defeated and when its opponent has demonstrated unstoppable hypersonic weapons technology, the US military’s response was to provide pedophiles dressed as women access to the children on its military bases?

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Crossing More Red Lines

Now that crossing Russia’s red lines has led to war, the Fake Biden administration is Hell-bent on crossing China’s.

US President Joe Biden indicated on Monday that Washington is willing to use military force to defend Taiwan if necessary. Speaking at a joint press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, in Tokyo, he explained that the US sees the idea of China “going in” with its troops as unacceptable.

When asked if the US would become directly involved in a conflict between China and Taiwan, including through the use of military force, Biden said “Yes,” adding that “it’s a commitment we made.” The US leader has previously said Washington respects the ‘One China’ policy, by which it recognizes that there is only one China led by Beijing.

Biden, however, maintained that China has no “jurisdiction to go in and use force to take over Taiwan.” The idea that the island nation “can be taken by force is just not appropriate. It will dislocate the whole region,” the US president added.

This isn’t really a surprise. The catastrophic failure of the neo-liberal world order pretty much ensured WWIII sooner or later, as there was no way the rulers of the Imperial USA were going to gracefully relinquish their global power and influence. The various Color Revolutions, both successful and failed, made it clear that they would choose the hard option.

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A Failure of Deterrence

Dominick Cummings explains

When Pearl Harbor happened, Washington was in shock. Unprovoked attack!

What had really happened?

America had tightened economic warfare against Japan including shutting down oil. Then it suddenly confiscated Japanese assets held in America. Japan won’t do anything, said the high status Washington insiders, because rationally they know attacking America will be fatal.

But in Japan they reasoned differently: America has clearly decided to destroy our regime so we should attack and try to change the balance of forces.

Washington’s ‘insanity’/‘irrationality’ was Tokyo’s rational calculation.

Why is this relevant?

America has many virtues but its ruling class does not have a long culture of imperial success and it has not developed a ruling class that generates leaders good at judgements about other regimes. Britain had people like Lord Cromer ruling the Egyptians — a very smart, cold, calculating cynical aristocrat with empire in his blood, a sort much better suited to imperial politics than the output of American graduate schools who dominate Washington and repeatedly, naively misjudge other countries. We’ll bring democracy to Afghanistan… We’ll stop corruption in Afghanistan… We’ll bring LGBTQ+++ to Afghanistan… Argh we gotta flee Afghanistan…

Even very smart and able Americans such as Dean Acheson were not good at assessing other regimes. Imperial politics is not the same as democratic politics. Also notice that when Tyler Cowen interviewed Brennan, a former CIA director, and asked about the Tetlock project, by now known in outline to many in politics, Brennan didn’t even know what it was — a very telling detail. If the CIA director doesn’t know about the most interesting project to counter intelligence failures, what else doesn’t he know?!

In the Cold War we saw Washington make repeated errors. The Vietcong are about to fold, they said, year after year. Turned out the Vietcong defined their priorities and rationality differently. America had to retreat.

Just last year we could see how bad the trillion dollar network of DoD and intelligence agencies were on Afghanistan and the Taliban. America had to retreat.

And now Washington’s high status insiders are confidently declaring what it would be ‘rational’ and ‘crazy’ for Putin to do.

Given their complete inability to correctly anticipate what Putin – or pretty much any of their other enemies – was going to do previously, what are the odds that they have gotten it right this time? More importantly, most of the people making decisions about the use of US military force have no loyalty to nor concern for the American people or their national interests, so they’re much more willing to take risks than actual Americans would.

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China Prepares for Sanctions

It’s pretty obvious why the Chinese are expecting sanctions to be imposed in the next year or three.

China’s Communist Party will block promotions for senior cadres whose spouses or children hold significant assets abroad, people familiar with the matter said, as Beijing seeks to insulate its top officials from the types of sanctions now being directed at Russia.

WWIII is already underway. The fact that it is primarily unrestricted rather than military doesn’t change the fact that it is observably underway.

Plan accordingly.

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The Idiocy of Expansion

Even neutral parties grasp that joining NATO is a foolish action by Finland and Sweden:

NATO membership won’t make Finland and Sweden more secure, but would likely see them fighting somebody else’s wars and hosting American bases, Dr. Jan Oberg, director of the Transnational Foundation for Peace and Future Research, has told RT.

“It’s a disastrous decision,” Oberg said on Sunday, following an official declaration by the Finnish government that it is planning to join the US-led military bloc. Hours later, a similar announcement was made by the ruling party in Sweden. The two Nordic nations stayed out of NATO during the Cold War, but their governments said Russia’s military operation in Ukraine has become a game-changer.

Finland and Sweden have failed to carry out “long-term consequence analysis,” he added. “Nobody seems to ask whether NATO is the right thing to join. After all these years since 1945, NATO has proven that it’s not able to deliver what taxpayers are paying for, namely stability, peace and security… and then Finland and Sweden say: ‘We’ll join this failed organization,’” he remarked.

One has to be almost completely ignorant of military history to conclude that joining a military alliance makes war LESS likely. The history of war is literally the history of military alliances, from the Delian League and the Latin League to the League of Cambrai and the Triple Entente. Only neutral nations such as Spain, Switzerland, and Ireland managed to stay out of WWII, which is why it is absolutely counterproductive for formerly neutral nations such as Switzerland to impose sanctions on Russia and totally insane for formerly neutral nations such as Finland and Sweden to voluntarily sign up as co-belligerents to engage in a war against both Russia and China.

Because that’s what they’re signing up for, even if they don’t realize it yet.

UPDATE: Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

Russia appears to have started moving nuclear-capable missiles to Finland’s border just a day after the country announced it will bid to join NATO. Video posted on Russian social media today shows trucks carrying Iskander ballistic missiles – which can be tipped with nuclear warheads – moving through the country, reportedly on a highway to Vyborg, on the Finnish border. ‘As soon as the president of Finland said they were joining NATO, a whole division of Iskanders, seven of them… is moving towards Vyborg,’ the video’s narrator says.

UPDATE: Sweden boards the geopolitical short bus.

Sweden has said it will join Finland in bidding for membership of NATO, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted an ‘historic’ shift away from decades of neutrality. Magdalena Andersson, the Swedish prime minister, announced the move on Monday – just a day after Finnish counterpart Sanna Marin tabled her own bid. Andersson said the move was being made in conjunction with Helsinki and marks ‘a historic change in our country’s security policy’ which has relied on a pledge of neutrality to deter attacks since the Napoleonic era.

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The Consumer Costs of War

Karl Denninger points out a few uncomfortable realities about the US military interventions in Europe:

Folks, understand one thing about the US getting involved in an actual shooting war with anyone.

You immediately will have no semi-conductor anything, zero lithium batteries for anything at all from electric cars to cellphones, 75% or better of the pharmaceuticals in common use will disappear instantly, finding tires will be nearly impossible, automotive and machine parts, specifically wear parts such as bearings will all become unobtanium and more. Even something as simple as a circuit breaker for your house will not be able to be sourced. ALL of the large transformers used to distribute electrical power in the United States, never mind nearly all of the switchgear, are made overseas in whole or part and thus if they fail, whether due to natural or man-made cause they cannot be replaced in such an event either. Within a few months spares for critical parts that are considered wear items and thus must be replaced on a schedule will run out in our energy generation and distribution system and failures will begin to occur with impact from local areas to entire regions.

Your local gas station and supermarket cash register (never mind most modern refrigerators, HVAC systems and similar) all have chips in them that are only made overseas; there is no replacement available made in the United States. Your much-vaunted heat pump that is so “green” has a defrost control board in it without which it will not function — if you bypass it (which you can in some cases) once the temperatures get below about 40 degrees outside the unit will fail or be destroyed without it, and there won’t be a replacement available at any cost. Even the contactor (relay) in that outdoor unit has no US supply and without it the unit doesn’t work. Your gas furnace has an ignitor and control board without which you have no heat, they do fail and, again, there is no US supply. We did this to ourselves with our decades-long stupidity offshoring everything and by doing so made it possible for any nation that can sink even a single container ship to break the United States economy and perhaps even a few million people’s survival within minutes.

Commercial shipping will go to zero basically immediately as anything that floats and is big is easy to sink and without insurance, which nobody will write, nobody will ship anything because someone is going to eat the entire cost if the ship ends up on the bottom of the ocean and there is nobody in their right mind who will take that risk.

This isn’t just a theoretical prediction. Car dealers and auto repair shops are already seeing these issues in the automotive industry at the consumer level.

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