Tag: war

What Comes Next

Pepe Escobar observes that the British Intelligence service IM6 appears to have some idea what is being decided in Moscow:

The Brits had warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the General Staff that the Russians would be launching a “warning strike” this Monday.

What happened was no “warning strike,” but a massive offensive of over 100 cruise missiles launched “from the air, sea and land,” as Putin noted, against Ukrainian “energy, military command and communications facilities.”

MI6 also noted “the next step” will be the complete destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. That’s not a “next step:” it’s already happening. Power supply is completely gone in five regions, including Lviv and Kharkov, and there are serious interruptions in other five, including Kiev.

Over 60 percent of Ukrainian power grids are already knocked out. Over 75 percent of internet traffic is gone. Elon Musk’s Starlink netcentric warfare has been “disconnected” by the Ministry of Defense.

Shock’n Awe will likely progress in three stages.

First: Overload of the Ukrainian air defense system (already on).

Second: Plunging Ukraine into the Dark Ages (already in progress).

Third: Destruction of all major military installations (the next wave).

We shall wait and see how events proceed before placing any confidence in the predictions. But they were certainly correct about the “warning strike” on Monday. And we now know that the air defenses in Ukraine are completely unable to offer a significant defense against Russian air strikes, even when warned they are coming.

DISCUSS ON SG

What Winning Looks Like

It’s intriguing to observe the constant whiplash between the Kiev regime crowing about its totally conclusive victories over Russia and crying about how Ukraine is about to be wiped off the map.

Multiple missile strikes targeted Ukrainian cities all across the country on Monday morning, according to local officials and media, which attributed the attacks to Russia. This comes two days after a bomb damaged the strategic Crimean Bridge – which Moscow called a Ukrainian terrorist attack.

President Vladimir Zelensky confirmed the attacks throughout the country in a video address, saying numerous parts of Ukraine had come under fire, and claimed that Russia was targeting the energy infrastructure. “They want panic and chaos,” he said.

Local officials in Lviv, Kharkov, and Odessa also reported that their cities came under fire.

“As of 11:00 a.m., 11 important infrastructure facilities in eight regions and Kyiv were damaged in Ukraine. Now some areas are de-energized. We need to be prepared for temporary interruptions in electricity, water supply, and communications.”

  • Denys Shmygal, Prime Minister of Ukraine

“By its actions, the Kiev regime has actually put itself on par with international terrorist formations, with the most odious groups. It is simply impossible to leave crimes of this kind unanswered. This morning, at the suggestion of the Ministry of Defense and according to the plan of the Russian General Staff, a massive strike was carried out with high-precision long-range air, sea and land-based weapons on energy, military administration and communications facilities of Ukraine. If attempts to carry out terrorist attacks on our territory continue, Russia’s responses will be tough and will correspond in scale to the level of threats posed to the Russian Federation.”

  • Vladimir Putin, President of Russia

The missile strike on the LAMEL cosmetics warehouse was particularly informative, being an object lesson in the price of virtue signaling one’s decision to take sides. Western leaders from America to Switzerland would be well-advised to contemplate the significance of that particular strike.

So, it appears we’re entering the “fuck around and find out” phase of the situation in the aftermath of the attacks on the pipelines and the Crimean bridge. However, the soonest a winter offensive would likely begin is November, so unless the Russians have decided it’s not worth waiting for colder weather to get things rolling, this is probably just a prelude of considerably more serious air campaigns to come.

DISCUSS ON SG

A Forward and Fragile Defense

The Germany Army has been effectively disarmed:

The German Army has enough ammunition for only one or two days of warfare, the German edition of news website Business Insider (BI) reported on Saturday, citing defense industry and parliamentary sources. According to BI, Berlin is significantly lagging behind the NATO requirement of maintaining stocks for at least 30 days of fighting. It was said that the problem “has been known for years,” as military drills have suffered from insufficient stores.

Stockpiles were further depleted after Germany, together with many other Western countries, began sending weapons and ammunition to Ukraine after Russia launched its military operation in the neighboring state in February. The deliveries included 53,000 rounds for self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, 21.8 million rounds for firearms, and 50 bunker-buster missiles, according to the German government.

The situation with the shortage “will not improve if ammunition is removed from the Bundeswehr stocks, while corresponding orders are not placed on the defense industry at the same time,” Hans Christoph Atzpodien, CEO of the German Security and Defense Industry Association (BDSV), told BI. The outlet’s sources, meanwhile, were quoted as saying that there have been “no significant orders” for defense companies to produce more armaments.

It appears Russia can roll over not only Ukraine and Eastern Europe, but Western Europe as well, if it happens to see fit once the inevitable winter offensive starts.

Duolingo has a Russian option, right?

DISCUSS ON SG

They Really Think You’re Stupid

After 24 hours of celebrating the US attack on the Crimean bridge, the shameless propagandists of the Occupied West are belatedly attempting to claim Russia bombed their own bridge:

A leading Ukrainian presidential aide claimed this morning the Kerch Strait crossing carnage may have been ordered by one of Vladimir Putin’s warring commanders. Mykhailo Podolyak alleged that Russia’s FSB secret service and the defence ministry are at loggerheads in a bitter dogfight over the botched war and are trying to undermine one another’s credibility. ‘Isn’t it obvious who made [the] explosion? Truck arrived from RF [Russian Federation],’ he said.

Meanwhile, a Western diplomatic source said the bridge attack could have been commissioned from inside the Russian establishment to fatally weaken Putin and trigger his toppling. ‘It might be the SBU [Ukrainian secret service] but it also could be the first major sign of a bid from within Russia to incapacitate the Kremlin tsar,’ the source said.

Sure. Just like the Russians shelled what is now their own nuclear plant, ineptly blew up three out of four of their own pipelines, and launched their own counteroffensive against themselves. Given the level of inversion and projection being demonstrated here, we can only assume the neocons are behind all of these attacks on Russia.

More importantly, the Russians know it. It will be interesting to see if their inevitable responses are limited to the territory of Ukraine or not.

DISCUSS ON SG

Russia Blows Up Bridge to Crimea

Just like they blew up their own pipeline to Germany, shelled the nuclear reactor under their control, and assassinated the daughter of Alexandre Dugin. Which is to say, the Russians didn’t do it.

A crucial bridge linking Russia and Ukraine has exploded in a suspected attack by Ukrainian saboteurs this morning, just hours after Vladimir Putin’s birthday.

Videos show the explosion rocking the Kerch Bridge linking the peninsula with the Russian mainland. The attack could cut supplies to Putin’s forces as Ukraine makes more advances in the south towards Kherson.

A section of the bridge has collapsed into the sea and a train caught fire in the blast. Long fuel lines are already forming in Crimea, despite Russian claims to have enough supplies to last two weeks.

Although Kyiv has not claimed responsibility for the attack, one Ukrainian official boasted that ‘Putin should be happy. Not everyone gets such an expensive birthday present’ – a reference to the Russian president’s 70th birthday yesterday.

It is unclear if a suicide bombing caused the blast, but there have been no reports of incoming missiles. Some witnesses claimed there were two explosions .

Regardless of who blew up the bridge and how – and I would guess it was more likely underwater sabotage by a second US Navy SEAL team than the assumed suicide truck bomber – Russia has been doing an awful lot of not-responding of late. The Russian people are starting to get angry about all the not-responding. This makes me conclude that whatever the Russians are planning, it’s probably going to be something even bigger than the February surprise of the special military operation, because this was a direct attack on Russia.

UPDATE: Footage of the explosion which destroyed the only bridge between Russia and Crimea shows a mysterious ‘wave’ just before the blast – leading to speculation a drone packed with explosives or a boat could have been the cause.

Quelle surprise…

DISCUSS ON SG

A Belated Peace

Japan wants to end its long-standing war with Russia. But it doesn’t appear that Russia is interested now.

ITEM: Tokyo, 3 October. The Japanese government will continue to adhere to the course aimed at concluding a peace treaty with Russia, despite the deterioration of bilateral relations, said Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in a keynote address at the opening of the extraordinary parliamentary session. Relationships between Russia and Japan has been overshadowed by the absence of a peace treaty for many years, which countries have not signed after World War II.

ITEM: Moscow, 3 October. Dmitry Peskov, Press Secretary for President Putin, ruled out the possibility of negotiations on a peace treaty with Japan. “Of course, in such conditions, negotiating a peace treaty is not possible,” Peskov told reporters. He added that Japan took a place among other Western countries and itself turned into an unfriendly country for Russia, which does not allow for negotiations.

So it doesn’t appear that Russia is going to be inclined to overlook the behavior of all of the unfriendly countries who stood with Ukraine in the future. But that’s not the interesting question here. That is: why Japan is so concerned about belatedly making peace with Russia at this particular moment in time?

DISCUSS ON SG

Predictions

I thought I’d put these recent predictions, made in the aftermath of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkiv region, on the record for future consideration. One can’t help but wonder what they would have made of the apparent success of the Ardennes Offensive if they had been there to observe it unfolding in 1944.

“A much bigger Russian collapse will unfold in the coming days.”
— Francis Fukuyama

“No amount of shambolic mobilization, which is the only way to describe it, no amount of annexation, no amount of even veiled nuclear threats can actually get Putin out of this particular situation. He is losing, and the battlefield reality he faces is, I think, irreversible.”
— Gen. David Petraeus

“This is a tremendous victory for the Ukrainians. And it’s a victory that I think that they could turn into a cascading series of defeats of Russian forces. What we might be at here is really at the precipice of really the collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine.”
— Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster

“I think that everything we’ve seen is suggestive of a near collapse of the Soviet military, like a near total collapse, and I think that the United States and NATO probably sees that this is an opportunity for a complete collapse of the Russian military and they’re going to take it… I think the battle for Ukraine is over.”
— Scott Adams

“The success of the Ukrainian offensives are the result of Novorussian military forces falling back in preparation for a major Russian winter offensive that will envelop the advanced Ukrainian positions, place considerably more Ukrainian land under Russian control than before, and put significant pressure on the Kiev regime to leave Ukraine. This will happen before the end of the year and may be accompanied by a formal declaration of war and followed by the opening of a second front in a different theater.”
— Vox Day

We’ll revisit these predictions in a few months, determine whose predictions were better, and analyze why they went awry.

DISCUSS ON SG

Stage One Complete

For all intents and purposes, Russia has successfully completed the first stage of its plan to liberate the Donbass.

The Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian parliament, has ratified unification treaties with Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics and Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions. The treaties were signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and the heads of the four former Ukrainian regions on Friday last week. They were certified as lawful by the Constitutional Court over the weekend and ratified by the State Duma, the lower house of the Parliament, on Monday. The latest step in the process of accepting the four regions as new parts of Russia was approved in an unanimous vote. The Russian constitution will need to be amended for the accession to be finalized.

It’s rather remarkable that so many midwits and morons in the ex-West continue to believe the narrative that Russia is somehow losing the war. It just successfully recovered over 100,000 square kilometers of resource-rich land and incorporated more than 8.5 million Russian-speaking people into the Russian state, while inflicting a casualty ratio on its enemies that exceeds the historical Israeli-Arab rate, and despite six rounds of anti-Russian sanctions, has made a financial profit on the situation as its enemies’ economies crash. Even if one doesn’t count the Crimea, Russia has expanded by the entirety of Hungary, or to put it into American terms, Colorado.

If this is defeat, one shudders to imagine what victory is supposed to look like.

But wait… Did we speak too soon? What’s that? That’s… that’s JEB’S music!

DISCUSS ON SG

Chinese Warning

People often forget that it is China which keeps North Korea on a short leash. I interpret this recent missile launch over Japan as a warning from China that if and when the Second Front of WWIII is opened, it will not only be the Chinese taking action.

North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan, for the first time in five years on Tuesday, prompting a warning for residents to take cover and a temporary suspension of train operations in the northern part of the country.

The Japanese government warned citizens to take cover as the missile appeared to have flown over and past its territory before falling into the Pacific ocean.

It said it did not use any defence measures to destroy the missile, which was the first to fly over or past Japan from North Korea since 2017.

Speaking to reporters shortly afterwards, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemned the launch and called North Korea’s actions ‘barbaric.’ He noted that the government would continue to gather and analyse information.

The launch is the latest weapons test by North Korea in an apparent response to military drills between South Korea and the United States.

In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the North Koreans were the first to initiate action; the major players are seldom the first to get directly involved.

DISCUSS ON SG

A Tremendous Opportunity

The US Secretary of State, whose department threatened to destroy Nord Stream 2 even before the beginning of the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine, now says the USA considers the destruction of the Russian gas pipelines to be a “tremendous opportunity”. Indeed.

The US views the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines as a “tremendous opportunity” to wean EU states off Russian energy, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters on Friday.

With winter approaching, Blinken said that the US wants the bloc to use less fuel.

Washington has for years been trying to convince EU leaders to swap Russian gas for its LNG.

The severity of the damage to the undersea conduits now means that the bloc is “indefinitely deprived” of Russian gas via this route, Russian energy operator Gazprom stated on Friday.

Speaking to reporters in Washington, Blinken boasted that the US is now “the leading supplier of [liquefied natural gas] to Europe.” In addition to shipping its own fuel to Europe, Blinken said that the US is working with European leaders to find ways to “decrease demand” and “speed up the transition to renewables.”

DISCUSS ON SG