Tag: war

Fireworks in Israel

Hamas is reported to have fired thousands of rockets into Israel:

Israel’s military has declared a ‘state of war’ after Islamic militant group Hamas fired a claimed 5,000 rockets into the country early on Saturday.

Forces in the country have ordered residents to remain indoors and air raid sirens are sounding in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem after Hamas militants infiltrated the country – in some cases flying in via paraglider in order to evade the country’s high-tech border.

Hamas supreme military commander Mohammed Deif said the operation, Al-Aqsa Storm, was a declaration that ‘enough is enough’ as he urged Palestinians to confront Israel.

Videos on social media appeared to show armed troops from the Al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’ militant arm, moving through built-up areas firing weapons. Israeli media reports suggested an Israeli soldier had been kidnapped by Hamas militants as they swept the streets.

One has to wonder at what all these rockets are being fired. They never seem to accomplish very much, especially when compared to the extreme destruction of the Russian-Ukrainian front or even a night of immigrant riots in France. It could, of course, presage an opening of the Middle Eastern front by Iran, which we’ll know soon if Hezbollah gets involved, but at least for now, it doesn’t look like much more than the regular flare-up.

Hopefully the Israelis in the community can shed more light on the situation.

UPDATE: It looks more serious than the customary PR-focused attacks. Israeli radio is reporting that Hamas has captured 35 Israelis so far.

Israeli media reported that clashes are taking place in seven different towns and settlements. Other reports suggest that the Palestinian Resistance has managed to strike at 21 different military positions.

UPDATE: On the other hand, Hezbollah is showing no sign of being interested in opening a northern front and is doing nothing more than “monitoring the situation”.

UPDATE: A little confused about this very unwelcoming response by the Israelis to their newest immigrants. Don’t they realize all these young working-age men coming into their country will make their economy stronger?

UPDATE: The “Israel’s 9/11” scenario is looking increasingly likely given the way anyone who suggests the obvious possibility of the attacks not having been “the staggering failure of intelligence services”, but rather, effectively permitted by those services simply looking the other way is being hounded into retractions immediately.

A Harvard professor has been forced to apologize for implying the Hamas attack on Israel was an attempt to distract from Benjamin Netanyahu’s ‘own corruption.’ Those who saw it were outraged calling the professor an ‘idiot’ who needs to ‘go commit’ himself somewhere. Liberal political commentator Keith Olbermann also criticized Tribe’s claims, calling it ‘moronic and indefensible,’ Fox News reported.

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India Knew Russia Would Win

I read a fascinating article written by an Indian ambassador in The Tribune, India’s oldest English-language newspaper, nearly one year ago. It’s remarkable, because it illustrates that Indian strategists – or perhaps we should say Bharati strategists – clearly recognized what the European governments are still struggling to accept, namely, the inevitable defeat of the US and NATO and the transition to a multipolar world order.

Policy-makers and strategists in Delhi should make a careful note of the timeline. The bottom line is, Russia is looking for an all-out victory and will not settle for anything less than a friendly government in Kiev. Western politicians, including Biden, understand that there is nothing stopping the Russians now. The US’ weapon kitty is running dry as Kiev keeps asking for more.

When asked whether he’d meet Biden at the G20 in Bali, Putin derisively remarked on Friday, ‘He (Biden) should be asked whether he is ready to hold such negotiations with me or not. To be honest, I don’t see any need, by and large. There is no platform for any negotiations for the time being.’

However, Washington has not yet thrown in the towel and the Biden administration remains obsessed with exhausting the Russian military — even at the cost of Ukraine’s destruction. And, for the Russians too, there is still much to be worked out on the battlefield: the oppressed Russian populations in Odessa (which suffered unspeakable atrocities from the neo-Nazis), Mykolaiv, Zaporizhya, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkov are expecting ‘liberation’. It’s a highly emotive issue for Russia. Again, the overarching agenda of ‘demilitarisation’ and ‘denazification’ of Ukraine must be taken to its logical conclusion.

When all that is over, Putin knows Biden will not even want to meet him. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban said last week, ‘Anyone who seriously believes that the war can be ended through Russian-Ukrainian negotiations lives in another world. Reality looks different. In reality, such issues can only be discussed between Washington and Moscow. Today, Ukraine is able to fight only because it receives military assistance from the United States…

‘At the same time, I do not see President Biden as the person who would really be suitable for such serious negotiations. President Biden has gone too far. Suffice it to recall his statements to Russian President Putin.’

India should expect the defeat of the US and NATO, which completes the transition to a multipolar world order. Sadly, Indian elites are yet to purge their ‘unipolar predicament’. Europe, including Britain, is devastated and there is palpable discontent over the US’s ‘transatlantic leadership’. Indo-Pacific strategy is hopelessly adrift. New power centres are emerging in India’s extended neighbourhood, as the OPEC’s rebuff to Washington shows. A profound adjustment is needed in the Indian strategic calculus.

A War Russia Set to Win, 22 October 2022

One year later, it is clear that the Indian strategic calculus has, indeed, been modified as recommended, at least in part. The ambassador provides more recent prognostications at his blog, Indian Punchlines.

Looking ahead, further erosion of support for the Ukraine war can be expected and even a possible collapse of support for Ukraine across the collective West cannot be ruled out in the months ahead, especially if the Kremlin leadership finally decides to give a knockout punch to Ukraine’s military and/or orders the Russian forces to cross the Dnieper and take over Kiev and Odessa.

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The Decisive Turn

The mass of facts is getting to the point where even the deranged NATO strategists are beginning to have to admit their relevance to the situation and the total impossibility of the NATO objectives.

  1. Western arms and ammunition shortages.
    In June this year, British Defense Secretary Wallace said that Western countries had run out of national stocks of weapons that could be supplied to Kiev. For his part, Biden admitted in July that the decision to give cluster munitions to Ukraine was made because conventional shells had been exhausted.
  2. Public confidence in politicians in Europe and the U.S. has been lost.
    Ratings of distrust towards the heads of state of the EU and the USA are at a historical peak. 57 percent disapprove of Biden’s actions, 69 percent disapprove of Macron’s actions, 72 percent disapprove of Scholz’s actions. The majority of people in the US and European countries oppose supplying arms to Ukraine.
  3. The failure of the Kiev regime’s counteroffensive.
    The Ukrainian military, backed by NATO, has suffered huge losses in equipment and manpower. The lack of any results has disappointed Western sponsors.
  4. Economic problems of Europe and the USA.
    Eurozone economies are in recession. Germany is forced to cut social payments to poor families because of the costs of militarization of the Kiev regime. France has reduced the number of aid recipients; food packages are no longer distributed to those in need, and reimbursing of the purchase of medicines has been cut back. International agencies, expecting deterioration of the financial situation of the United States in the next three years, downgraded the long-term investment rating of the United States.
  5. Shortage of Ukrainian army personnel.
    The Kiev regime is mobilizing men over 50 years old, as well as those with tuberculosis, viral hepatitis, HIV, and others. From October 1, 2023, women will also be enrolled in the military register. Nurses, doctors and pharmacists will be barred from leaving Ukraine.
  6. Ukraine is bankrupt.
    Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 fell by 30.4 percent—the worst result in the country’s history. Without help from Washington and Brussels, Kiev cannot fulfill its obligations to its citizens. Ukraine has lost its financial autonomy.
  7. Demographic catastrophe in Ukraine.
    More than 10.5 million people fled from Ukraine. Another 11.2 million residents of Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, as well as Zaporizhya and Kherson regions made their choice to be with Russia. Since 2014, Ukraine has lost 53.7 percent of its population.

These 7 facts speak for themselves: Either the Kiev regime capitulates on the terms of the Russian Federation or Ukraine will cease to exist as a state.

The madness will end, and the sooner it ends, the better. Ukraine has already been comprehensively defeated. It has lost a higher percentage of its population than any of the defeated Axis states in WWII and any of the Triple Alliance states in WWI. NATO has been exposed as a paper tiger and the G7 “global” economy has been exposed as a mere regional one with no control and little influence over 80 percent of the planetary population.

WWIII will not end when Ukraine surrenders, but a NATO surrender on the Near Eastern Front will spare Europe some of the suffering that the Ukrainian people have experienced, because the war with China is going to be far more economically devastating than the proxy war with Russia has been.

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Germany Declares War on Russia

I don’t think this declaration by Germany’s Foreign Minister is going to age well, especially how it calls back to the infamous Lebensraum policy of the Third Reich.

Ukraine’s future “lies in” the European Union, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Monday, adding that the bloc would soon incorporate regions that had joined Russia in 2022 but are still claimed by Kiev.

“[The EU] will soon stretch from Lisbon to Lugansk,” Baerbock told journalists on the sidelines of the EU foreign ministers’ meeting in the Ukrainian capital.

Lugansk is the capital of the Lugansk People’s Republic – one of the two former eastern Ukrainian regions that declared independence from Kiev in 2014 in the wake of the Western-backed Maidan coup in Kiev. Russia recognized its independence in February 2022, just days before the start of its military campaign in Ukraine. In autumn 2022, the Lugansk People’s Republic joined Russia, together with three other former Ukrainian territories following a series of referendums.

I don’t think this will surprise the Russians, who have known they were going to have to defeat NATO directly ever since the decapitation attack on Kiev failed at the beginning of the special military operation. And while I’m confident the Russians aren’t seeking a European empire, I think it is far more likely that Imperial Russia will stretch from Primorsky Krai to Porto than the EU will reach Lugansk. I very much doubt either Ukraine or the EU will survive WWIII as political entities.

This does not bode well for Europeans who had hoped for saner governments in the aftermath of the inevitable failure of the Ukro-NATO offensive.

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China Signs On

The pagans may not be believers, but they appear to recognize true evil when they see it, and by their adoption of Russia’s rhetoric, it appears they have some idea with whom they’re at war.

Beijing has labeled Washington the “true empire of lies” as it dismissed allegations contained in a new report by the US State Department, which accused China of “global information manipulation.”

“Some in the US may think that they can prevail in the information war as long as they produce enough lies. But the people of the world are not blind,” China’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Saturday. It added that “more and more people in the world” are seeing through America’s “ugly attempt to perpetuate its supremacy” with lies.

The US has a long history of manipulation and disinformation campaigns, the ministry continued, citing a number of examples spanning from the early Cold War period to the present day.

Of course, it’s also possible that the Chinese diplomats just recognize the “empire of lies” as effective anti-Clown World rhetoric with a strong dialectical base and are adopting it on that basis. But while they’ve been at asymetric “unrestricted” war with the USA since 1999, they have not been open about it. Clearly, that is changing.

UPDATE: Interesting. The Chinese Foreign Ministry actually put out a press release dedicated to this one specific issue.

Q: The US Department of State released a report on September 28, claiming that China has invested billions of dollars to spread disinformation globally. It says that China’s “global information manipulation” is not simply a matter of public diplomacy – but a challenge to the integrity of the global information space, and if unchecked, Beijing’s efforts could result in a sharp contraction of global freedom of expression in the future. What is China’s response?

A: The US Department of State report is in itself disinformation as it misrepresents facts and truth. In fact, it is the US that invented the weaponizing of the global information space. The relevant center of the US State Department which concocted the report is engaged in propaganda and infiltration in the name of “global engagement”. It is a source of disinformation and the command center of “perception warfare”. From Operation Mockingbird which bribed and manipulated news media for propaganda purposes in the Cold War era, to a vial of white powder and a staged video of the “White Helmets” cited as evidence to wage wars of aggression in Iraq and Syria earlier this century, and then to the enormous lie made up to smear China’s Xinjiang policy, facts have proven time and again that the US is an “empire of lies” through and through. Even some in the US, such as Senator Rand Paul, acknowledged that the US government is the greatest propagator of disinformation in the history of the world.

Some in the US may think that they can prevail in the information war as long as they produce enough lies. But the people of the world are not blind. No matter how the US tries to pin the label of “disinformation” on other countries, more and more people in the world have already seen through the US’s ugly attempt to perpetuate its supremacy by weaving lies into “emperor’s new clothes” and smearing others.

Remarks on the US State Department’s Report Targeting China, 30 September 2023

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That Escalated Quickly

There will be no Armenian Front. Despite the best efforts of NATO to stir up trouble on Russia’s southern border, the Azeri’s quickly ended any possibility of war with Armenia by conclusively putting to an end the ethnic Armenian republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, which broke away from Azerbaijan in 1989, with the assistance of the Russians.

The authorities of Azerbaijan’s breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh have announced the dissolution of the self-proclaimed republic after a Russian-mediated truce ended a flare-up of hostilities between Stepanakert and Baku.

Samvel Shahramanyan, the president of the unrecognized republic, issued a decree on Thursday ordering the “dissolution of all state institutions and their branches by January 1, 2024.”

“The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) ceases to exist,” the announcement declared, as quoted by the NKR InfoCenter.

The document also says that the region’s inhabitants, including those who have fled, should “familiarize themselves with the conditions of reintegration offered by the Republic of Azerbaijan,” and make an independent decision about whether to return to Nagorno-Karabakh.

The landmark presidential decree puts an end to the history of the unrecognized republic, which seceded from Azerbaijan in the waning days of the Soviet Union.

It is explained that “the announcement came after Azerbaijan completed a military operation in the breakaway region”. The subsequent reaction by the former republican government, and the speed with which the region is being homogenized indicates how rapid demographic changes are likely to take place in the USA and Europe if things are relatively peaceful; the region is being ethnically cleansed with a minimum of fuss and violence because the alternative is too terrible to contemplate.

It’s reported that more than 70 percent of the 120,000 Armenians resident in Nagorno-Karabakh had already completed their return to Armenia as of last week.

By Friday morning 84,770 people had left Nagorno-Karabakh, according to Armenian officials, continuing a mass exodus from the region of ethnic Armenians that began Sunday. The region’s population was around 120,000 before the exodus began.

However, it should be kept in mind that these recently-departed Armenians have the advantage of knowing full well how things would likely have gone for them if they insisted on relying upon violence since they have already fought, and lost, two wars with the Azeris over the disputed territory. Which, no doubt, accounts for their sensible collective decision to abandon the secessionist project and return to Armenia.

As is customary, the Armenian diaspora is more militant on the subject, because they have no skin in the game.

The swift fall of the Armenian-majority enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani troops and exodus of much of its population has stunned the large Armenian diaspora around the world. Traumatized by genocide a century ago, they now fear the erasure of what they consider a central and beloved part of their historic homeland. Many in the diaspora had pinned dreams on it gaining independence or being joined to Armenia.

If it was so central and beloved to them, perhaps they shouldn’t have moved to Lebanon and Los Angeles. There are as many Armenians living in Lebanon as there were in Nagorno-Karabakh at the beginning of this year.

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There Will Be No Draft

While there are some obvious flaws in analysis provided by the linked article – chief among them the fact that it is China, not the USA, that will obviously win a naval war in the South Pacific, due to its massive superiority in shipbuilding capacity – his overall point stands.

I’ve read almost a dozen paper now suggesting the US reinstitute a draft or that it would need a draft in a war with China. I’ve not seen a single paper suggest how that could be achieved…

Functionally America is an hourglass-shaped empire.

It’s really two empires barely connected.

It is a 19th-century land empire conquered by the American settler populace, and it is a 20th-century Maritime and global empire conquered by the US Navy and the barely closeted communist bureaucrats of the federal government, along with the foreigners they funded.

These two empires barely interact, indeed America is amongst the most autarkic economies in the world with 90% of its trade flows isolated to North America.

The place they meet, the narrow center of this hourglass, is Washington DC.

And here’s the thing, whereas Washington is consistently able to push about its overseas maritime empire sending troops and its agents into Afghanistan or Korea or Vietnam or Ukraine whilst all of its bureaucrats and tax collectors remain safe behind the twin moats of its oceans, and the mountain that is the curvature of the earth and the north pole on its third side… and its completely open border with Mexico on its fourth, (but no one cares about that)

Whilst Washington remains completely safe from any threat to its 20th-century Maritime empire…

Washington’s 19th-century land empire has it by the throat.

A military draft is one of the very few things that could stir a very fat and very torpid Heritage America into rebellion against the federal government. Unlike the poor Ukrainians, who are being sacrificed en masse to the Russian slaughter machine with about as much ability to resist as a 12-year-old Mexican maiden being carted up an Aztec pyramid, Americans possess the wherewithal to effectively resist 21st century press gangs.

If forced to choose, most Americans would rather find themselves facing jackboots than hypersonics and tactical nukes. Which is why they won’t be forced to choose, and the neoclowns will do their best to find a few Asian proxies to play the role of sacrificial victims.

Besides, there are no shortage of paper-seeking immigrants who can be offered citizenship in return for being hurled at the People’s Liberation Army. If anyone is going to be impressed into the US military, it will be those who cannot resist.

Then again, the neoclowns have never shown any hesitation before leaping into the abyss of obvious and inevitable failure. And one of the papers to which the article refers is published by the US War College (PDF).

The US Army is facing a dire combination of a recruiting shortfall and a shrinking Individual Ready Reserve. This recruiting shortfall, nearly 50 percent in the combat arms career management fields, is a longitudinal problem. Every infantry and armor soldier we do not recruit today is a strategic mobilization asset we will not have in 2031. The Individual Ready Reserve, which stood at 700,000 in 1973 and 450,000 in 1994, now stands at 76,000. These numbers cannot fill the existing gaps in the active force, let alone any casualty replacement or expansion during a large-scale combat operation. The implication is that the 1970s concept of an all-volunteer force has outlived its shelf life and does not align with the current operating environment. The technological revolution described below suggests this force has reached obsolescence. Large-scale combat operations troop requirements may well require a reconceptualization of the 1970s and 1980s volunteer force and a move toward partial conscription.

Against this is the fact that war with China requires ships, not manpower. And those are mostly ships that the US Navy doesn’t have and cannot build.

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“We Will Lose” – Zelensky

In fairness, he’s not lying:

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has pegged his nation’s continued fight against Russia to sustained US military assistance, according to US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. “There was a single sentence that summed it all up, and I am quoting him verbatim. Mr. Zelensky said: ‘If we don’t get the aid, we will lose the war,’” the lawmaker told journalists after meeting Zelensky on Capitol Hill on Thursday.

Of course, NATO’s Ukrainian puppet is leaving out the small matter of how if Ukraine does get the aid, it will still lose the war.

Since the Spanish Empire ruled the waves, the rule has always been that the side which can manufacture more of the primary war material, be it wooden ships, iron tanks, or AI-controlled drones, will win the war.

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The Artillery Dilemma

It’s obvious to any rational observer that NATO is losing the war in Ukraine, and is losing it badly. And by badly, I mean in terms that exceed Arabs vs IDF and are beginning to approach British regulars vs Zulus. But it was always perfectly clear to everyone who understood the nature of modern land war that the US military never had any chance whatsoever of winning either a direct or a proxy war against the Russians in Ukraine.

Just as the coming naval war with China will depend almost entirely upon shipbuilding capacity to replace the ships on both sides that are inevitably sunk, the war in Ukraine depends upon the production of artillery shells. Consider the following four points.

  1. Artillery is the king of the battlefield again, accounting for 85 percent of the casualties in Ukraine.
  2. One 155mm round made in the USA by USA contractors costs 5,500 dollars, while a 152mm round made in Russia costs 600 dollars.
  3. One 152mm made in North Korea probably costs less than 60 dollars. The Russians just bought 10 million of them, and due to their oil production, can afford to buy as many shells as the North Koreans can make.
  4. Outsourcing ammunition production to China is not exactly an option these days.

Quod erat demonstrandum. Apparently this new shell-supply arrangement is very upsetting to the South Koreans. Or rather, to their puppet masters in the US who are speaking through them. Only the USA is permitted to have allies, right?

SEOUL, Sept 19 (Reuters) – South Korea summoned Russia’s ambassador to warn Moscow against any military cooperation with North Korea on Tuesday after last week’s summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and President Vladimir Putin raised concerns about a possible arms deal. First Vice Foreign Minister Chang Ho-jin summoned Russia’s ambassador in Seoul to urge “Russia to immediately halt any moves to expand military cooperation with North Korea and to abide by (UN) Security Council Resolutions,” South Korea’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

No doubt the Russians will be duly chastened and refrain from further military cooperation with the North Koreans. In the meantime, and in not-unrelated news, Poland is out of the Ukrainian arms business.

“Poland will no longer arm Ukraine to focus on its own defense,” Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced just hours after Warsaw summoned Ukraine’s ambassador related to a fresh war of words and spat over blocked grain, according to the AFP. Warsaw has throughout more than a year-and-a-half of the Ukraine-Russia war been Kiev’s staunchest and most outspoken supporter.

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Russia Unlocks Allies

I always thought it was strange that in all the mainstream analyses of the NATO-Russian war in Ukraine, the possibility that Russia could match and exceed Ukraine’s foreign equipment supply line by purchasing Chinese, Iranian, Turkish, and North Korean armaments was never taken into account. Now, a new deal between Russia and North Korea makes it clear that they should have been.

The most significant rumor from the North Korean parleys is that Russia has possibly made deals to obtain over 10 million 122mm and 152mm artillery shells from North Korea. If even remotely true, it represents a significant number that represents upwards of 1-3 years’ worth of shell useage, depending on intensity. Firing 30k shells a day equals just over 10M per year.

Such a massive shell boost—if true—could give Russia enough to comfortably launch a massive offensive in the future without worrying about dipping into emergency reserve. Recall what I said many times before: one weakness is that Russia always has to maintain a large reserve stock of shells for the contingency that NATO happens to launch some sort of sneak attack, and full scale war breaks out. That means Russia could have several million shells as an emergency reserve it doctrinally cannot touch.

For what it’s worth, SBU head Budanov, by the way, said that Russia has already begun receiving the shipments.

So, not only can Russia exceed the total manufacturing capacity of the USA and Europe itself, but it can multiply its own resources by more than a factor of 2 by turning to its allies for additional support.

The important question here is why Russia feels the need to significantly expand its ammunition supply when it is a) winning the war and b) successfully increasing its own domestic manufacturing capabilities. An offensive is one possibility. But the attempt by the USA to open fronts on Russia’s borders in Armenia and Georgia should not be discounted.

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