Tag: war

Setup for a Showdown

Russia responds to the US Navy’s provocative move into the Mediterranean:

As the Israel-Gaza conflict escalates, with the expected involvement of various regional powers, the inclusion of global ones after the United States sent a massive naval force to the Eastern Mediterranean was guaranteed. And indeed, this now includes Russia which decided to send its superfast, high-flying MiG-31 jets to patrol the Black Sea. Namely, on October 18, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly announced that Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) will deploy MiG-31K/I (interceptors modified into strike fighters) armed with 9-A-7660 “Kinzhal” air-launched hypersonic missiles (usually given the unconfirmed Kh-47M2 designation) in response to large-scale US naval deployments. Although this doesn’t immediately indicate that the jets are on combat duty to tackle the possible involvement of US forces, the “Kinzhal’s” range and speed are more than enough to jeopardize American assets.

With the USS “Dwight D. Eisenhower” Nimitz-class supercarrier (CVN-69) joining the USS “Gerald R. Ford” (CVN-78), the US Navy now operates two carrier strike groups (CSGs) in the Eastern Mediterranean. Combined, both vessels can carry up to 180 aircraft, in addition to other ships escorting them as part of the CSGs. This massive force is a threat to Russian allies in the region, particularly Syria, and by extension, Moscow’s forces deployed in the Middle Eastern country.

The MiG-31s armed with “Kinzhals” and flying over the Black Sea cover the entirety of the Eastern Mediterranean without going anywhere near American CSGs. Namely, although estimates vary significantly, the “Kinzhal’s” range is up to 2000 km, meaning that the MiG-31K/I strike fighters are capable of launching the hypersonic missiles well beyond the range of any US ship-based air defenses, interceptors or similar assets.

It should be noted that the US Navy also sent the USS “Bataan” (LHD-5) Wasp-class amphibious assault ship with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit (SOC – Special Operations Capable) and additional naval forces.

The USS “Bataan” can also carry up to 20 aircraft, further reinforcing the already massive US presence in the area. In addition, the 26th MEU has at least 1600 marines, although its full combat strength is up to 2400. Apart from these, the Pentagon deployed other assets such as the A-10 “Thunderbolt II” attack jets, F-15E “Strike Eagle” strike fighters, as well as the B-1B “Lancer” long-range bombers. The latter were sent from their home base in Texas on October 12 and forward deployed to RAF (Royal Air Force) Fairford airbase in the United Kingdom. From there, “Lancers” could launch strikes against targets across the Middle East and elsewhere, jeopardizing at least half a dozen countries in the region.

As previously mentioned, all of the aforementioned assets are a threat to Russian forces deployed in the area, as well as to Moscow’s allies, particularly Syria. It should be noted that the forces Washington DC sent so far are absolutely unnecessary against Hamas.

This underlines expectations that the Middle East will be the second front in WWIII. Most of the US forces arriving in nominal support of the incipient Israeli offensive in Gaza – and quite possibly Syria and Southern Lebanon as well – are not only useless against Hamas, but against Hezbollah as well.

Since Russians have resolutely refused to directly engage the NATO in Ukraine, it appears that the neoclowns are determined to find a way to provoke them into open war in a manner that they can’t resist.

When military leaders make their final, fatal mistake, it is usually the sort of action that has hitherto been very successful for them. The cautious leader fails to act when he must, the aggressive leaders bites off more than he can chew. Israeli officers are indoctrinated in the romance of the bold and daring stroke that wins the war, and revere aggressive generals like Dayan, Sharon, and Patton. This is why I am beginning to suspect that instead of simply beginning the ground offensive in Gaza, we’re going to see a bigger, more comprehensive attack on two or more fronts that is intended to catch Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah by surprise.

The presence of the US military would be to ensure that the IDF holds its gains by keeping Iran and Russia from defending their allies. I tend to doubt, however, that the US forces still command the respect that used to render them such a compelling deterrent.

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The Dayan Principle

It’s very informative that the German and US militaries appear almost eager to fight paramilitaries in Gaza, while for the last 18 months they have wanted absolutely no part in fighting the Russian Army.

The German government has decided to deploy some of the nation’s top Special Forces units to Cyprus as it prepares for potential crisis situations in Israel, Gaza, and the Middle East, the tabloid Bild reported on Wednesday, citing security sources.

The German Army’s Special Forces Command (KSK) has been deployed to the island nation in the Eastern Mediterranean, Bild said, adding that the Navy Special Forces (KSM) unit, also known as combat swimmers, was deployed to the area as well. The federal police Special Forces unit specializing in rescuing hostages (GSG 9) was sent there as well, the tabloid reported.

According to Bild, Berlin is preparing for “all scenarios” amid a continued escalation between Israel and the Gaza-based Palestinian Hamas militant group.

As the great Israeli general Moshe Dayan once said, the secret to the IDF’s stunning military success revolved around one very important concept: fighting Arabs. So it will be interesting to see if the German troop commitment survives in the event that Hezbollah and Iran elect to get involved.

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Propaganda is the Priority

Israel has drafted hundreds of military reservists to produce PR content claiming that Palestinian militants were responsible for the strike on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza, IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said.

If hundreds of reservists are being drafted for the purpose of writing press releases, one might be inclined to not unreasonably conclude that the ground offensive has been called off despite social media rumors that Joe Biden has “privately” given the Netanyahu government the green light for it. On the other hand, staffing up the propaganda arm could mean that they know they’re going to need a lot more PR in the near future. A LOT.

But regardless, I absolutely think it’s entirely possible that Israel is, in fact, innocent of dropping a JDAM on the Baptist Hospital in Gaza.

It might have been the US Navy instead.

The challenge to the “Hamas did it” crowd is to address the obvious and inescapable question: if Hamas possesses weapons capable of that level of destruction, why isn’t it using them against Israel?

UPDATE: US President Joe Biden on Wednesday argued that the Hamas attack on Israel was worse than the 2001 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, and vowed that America would “forever” stand with the Jewish state.

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Don’t Bark if You Won’t Bite

Israel is frantically backpedaling after more than a week of bloodthirsty threats to completely cleanse Gaza of Palestinians have been very poorly received by the world.

Iran’s foreign minister declared on Wednesday that ‘time is over’ for Israel, as Joe Biden was set to arrive in Tel Aviv to try and calm a rapidly-spiraling situation, with anti-Israel protests flaring up across the region.

The foreign minister’s message echoes one posted by Iran’s embassy in Syria that tweeted ‘Time is Up’ in Hebrew.

It’s unclear what the messages referred to, but came after an air strike on a Gaza hospital on Tuesday killed at least 500 people, according to Palestinian authorities… IDF claims video shows misfiring Gaza rocket was to blame for hospital carnage: Footage shows missile exploding in the sky before blast that left hundreds dead – as Israel furiously denies it was behind devastating strike.

Let’s get this straight. To the best of our knowledge, there isn’t a single rocket, of the thousands that have been fired at Israel, that managed to harm even a dozen people when it was aimed at a target and operated properly. But we’re supposed to believe that a single misfiring rocket managed to somehow blow up more than 500 people when it went awry.

Furthermore, we’re supposed to believe that the Israeli government, which possesses much more powerful missiles and bombs than Hamas, and which has been very loudly threatening to kill every man, woman, and child in Gaza, wouldn’t blow up a hospital when they’ve been aggressively bombing civilian apartment buildings and vehicles.

Right.

It’s not looking good for Israel when even Turkey, which until recently had been quite friendly with it, now appears to have sided with the Palestinians, as pro-Palestinian protests take place across Europe.

Israel advised its citizens to leave Türkiye immediately on Tuesday, citing the heightened threat of terrorist attacks amid widespread outrage over the deadly missile strike on a hospital in the Gaza Strip. 

The Kalergi plan of encouraging Muslim immigration into white, Christian countries so popular with the likes of Ben Shapiro and Barbara Lerner Spectre appears to be backfiring rather badly.

I was wondering why Israel’s recent PR failures have been even more observably incompetent than the supposed failures of its intelligence agencies, and I am reliably informed that it is due to the fact that its architects are nearly as old and out-of-touch as the US gerontocracy. They’re still operating on a 1980s Cold War model primarily designed to appeal to American Boomers, which is why they don’t realize how insane their attempts to establish an Official Story sound in the ears of everyone from Generation X and younger around the world.

This really isn’t that hard. You can’t cry about genocide for 50 years and then think that you can get away with openly committing one yourself. You can’t bomb hospitals, kill large quantities of civilians, and still claim that you’re the victim, even if it is in reprisal. And most importantly, never threaten to do anything for which you don’t wish to assume responsibility.

UPDATE: It appears the Israeli PR organization is more than a little discombobulated by its unanticipated ineffectiveness. Their efforts are to no avail, literally no one except Ben Shapiro and Mark Levin even pretend to believe them, and even those two are just faking it anyhow. The sound signature indicates a JDAM bomb of the sort that the US recently “rushed to Israel”. Which is why it’s that “heartbreaking” that underlines what a bunch of sociopaths these propagandists are.

UPDATE: The hospital that was bombed was a Christian one. And we all know that the people who literally spit on Christians in the street are ever so respectful of Christian institutions. It will be fascinating to see how the Boomer Churchians attempt to explain that one away.

Al Ahli Arab Hospital is one of the oldest in Gaza, operating since the early 1880s. Initially it was a Christian medical mission and is known by many locals as the Baptist Hospital. It had been functioning as a free community clinic run by the Episcopal Diocese of Jerusalem of the Middle-Eastern branch of the Anglican Church.

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One-Way “Impartiality”

If the BBC were to similarly suspend all of its pro-Israel reporters, it would have about six people left to report the Narrative.

Britain’s state-funded broadcaster BBC has launched an investigation into six reporters and a freelance contributor working for its Arabic service over allegedly exhibiting anti-Israel bias and cheering attacks by the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The probe is related to the journalists’ social media activities, namely liking and reposting pro-Palestinian content and criticism of Israel. The online conduct of BBC employees is covered by BBC’s ‘impartiality’ rules.

BBC takes six reporters off air over ‘pro-Palestine’ stance, 16 October 2023

Meanwhile, on Fox News, the debate appears to be whether Israel should either a) nuke or b) ethnically cleanse the Palestinian population and ship all of them to the United States, or, alternatively, Ireland.

The media has never been impartial. But its pretense to impartiality has seldom, if ever, been more absurd.

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China Warns Israel

The Chinese Foreign Ministry makes it very clear whose side China is on, and that the Chinese government will not endorse an Israeli invasion of Gaza:

AFP: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made comments yesterday on the recent situation in the Middle East. He said that the Palestinian question is at the core of the Middle East issue and the crux is that justice has eluded the Palestinians for too long. Can you elaborate on that?

Wang Wenbin: On October 12, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs Wang Yi talked with Celso Luiz Nunes Amorim, chief advisor of the Presidency of Brazil, on the phone with a focus on sharing views on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Director Wang Yi noted that China is deeply saddened by the rising tension between Palestine and Israel and the huge civilian casualties. He said China opposes acts that harm civilians and condemns violations of international law. China calls on all parties to exercise restraint, de-escalate the situation on the ground as soon as possible and prevent further expansion of the conflict. The top priority is to ensure the safety of civilians, and open corridors for aid so as to avoid a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Director Wang Yi pointed out that the Palestinian question is at the core of the Middle East issue. He said the crux of the issue is that justice has eluded the Palestinians for too long. The current conflict showed again in an extremely brutal way that solution to the Palestinian question lies in resuming genuine peace talks as soon as possible and realizing the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people. China calls for an international peace conference with greater authority and impact as soon as possible to galvanize a more broad-based international consensus with the two-state solution serving as its basis and formulate a timetable and roadmap to that end. The UN has the responsibility and obligation to play its due role on the Palestinian question. China supports the Security Council in holding an emergency meeting on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, agrees that the meeting should focus on humanitarian concerns, demand a ceasefire, an end to violence and the protection of civilians, form a binding international consensus and take concrete next-steps. China will stay in contact and coordinate and cooperate closely with Brazil and relevant parties in this regard. 

Amorim said that the key to resolving the conflict is to resume peace talks, and Brazil is ready to closely coordinate with China to work jointly to ease the situation. 

The Chinese diplomats always utilize positive and neutral language, but in a way that leaves little room to misinterpret what they’re saying.

Translation: follow through on your threats to enter Gaza and we will backstop the support provided by Iran and Russia to Hezbollah and the Palestinians.

The Global Times made it even more explicit, just in case the message didn’t get through.

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi said Israel’s actions have gone beyond the scope of self-defense, expressing concerns about the escalating Israel-Palestine conflict as Israel ordered one million people from the northern part of Gaza to evacuate within 24 hours as it prepared for a ground assault.

No wonder Netanyahu and his generals are thinking long and hard about this one. I expect they’re going to roll the dice anyhow, though, because they have about as much military support from the US as they’re likely to receive in the foreseeable future. I’d like to be wrong, indeed, I very much hope I’m wrong, but the stark reality is that this may be Israel’s last, best, chance at ethnically cleansing Gaza and taking another big step toward Greater Israel that they’re ever going to have.

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From the Maine to the Maddox

The stage has been set for another Gulf of Tonkin-style incident. Remember, from the USS Maine to the USS Morton, false flags and fake enemy attacks at sea is how the USA customarily justified its foreign wars. The following is from a book about baseball, of all things.

While Ralph Houk and Johnny Keane were carrying out their embarrassing charade [with the New York Yankees], in Washington, DC., President Johnson, running for reelection after finishing John Kennedy’s term, was leading an unsuspecting American public into a devastating war with a charade of his own.

In late September it was reported by the State Department that two American destroyers, the Richard Edward and the Morton, were fired upon by four attacking North Vietnamese gunboats, seemingly all poor shots as no damage to the American ships was reported. The Republican presidential nominee, Barry Goldwater, proclaimed, “As sure as the sun sets, we are at war.” The North Vietnamese swore that none of their ships attacked anyone. Johnson, firm, told the American people that the Vietnamese were lying.

The Pentagon had some doubts as to whether the attacks ever did take place, and there was censorship of letters from American seamen on the two ships who tried to write home that they had not been attacked. One sailor, whose letter got through the censorship, wrote that North Vietnamese ships were sighted. We shot at them, the sailor wrote home. “They didn’t shoot at us. Johnson, gearing the country for war, coerced Congress, citing the attack on our ships, into backing his escalation of the fighting in Vietnam.

Before the Tonkin Gulf incident, only 190 U.S. soldiers had been killed. “Before I send American G.I.’s into war,” Johnson said, “I must consider every facet very carefully.” After Johnson’s term, 25,000 American soldiers lay dead in the hostile rice paddies of a devastated country.

In fact, the USA staged not one, but two Gulf of Tonkin incidents in order to justify its war in Vietnam. Two days prior, the USS Maddox had also had a confrontation with North Vietnamese torpedo boats after repeatedly intruding upon Vietnam’s territorial waters in an attempt to provoke the Vietnamese into firing at it.

So don’t fall for whatever naval event is being staged in the eastern Mediterranean in the coming weeks, or the solemn pronouncements about how “we are at war”.

The Pentagon has dispatched a second US Navy carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean in a move that will deliver additional American firepower to the waters near Israel as fears mount that its war with Hamas could worsen and spiral into a regional conflict. The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group is moving into the area “as part of our effort to deter hostile actions against Israel or any efforts toward widening this war following Hamas’s attack on Israel,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement on Saturday. The strike group includes the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, the guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea, and guided-missile destroyers USS Gravely and USS Mason.

UPDATE: A note about the two USN carriers sent to the region from a reader.

Something worth noting about the two carriers sent to Israel. One is the oldest nuclear carrier on the east coast, nearing end of life. The other is the newest carrier, which has been plagued with expensive technical issues. One being sunk would spare the Navy the hassle of decommissioning and defueling down the road. The other being sunk would spare the headache and hassle of trying to fix a badly designed carrier.

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It is a Mystery

Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this latest round of the Israeli-Gaza war is that so many Jews in the USA and Europe are observably astonished at the way in which nearly the entire world is supporting the Palestinians despite the vast litany of horrors, both real and fake, that are being repeatedly shoved in the public’s faces by the mainstream media.

It’s as if they’ve forgotten what they’ve quite literally been saying since 1965 1908.

Now, it may be that the time has finally come for Israel to take its chances with alienating the rest of the world. The US military, while degrading rapidly, is still extremely formidable. The mainstream Western media is either wholly-owned or sufficiently leashed. China and Russia are otherwise occupied. Iran is only going to become more formidable over time due to the failure of Clown World and decline of the the imperial dollar. The Arab-Israeli population delta is widening. And the invaded nations of Europe are not going to become more friendly as their Clown-controlled governments are replaced by increasingly hardline nationalists.

But it’s a hard call. I’m not at all surprised that Netanyahu and his IDF generals appear to be hesitating before giving the orders to begin the ethnic cleansing of the northern half of Gaza. For good or for ill, no decision of such magnitude should be made lightly, and despite all the theatrical posturing on the part of both sides, the outcome is highly uncertain and there will be no return from committing to such a horrific and hypocritical path regardless of the provocation.

Despite the probable costs and consequences, the better strategic analysts understand why Netanyahu will probably roll the dice as his final act as Israel’s head of state.

Why now? Why do events seem to be spiraling into such biblical end times territory all over the globe?

For Israel, the answer is simple: they are actually running out of time.

You see, the Arab world is becoming incommensurately stronger every day. Arabs are no longer the weak pawns of the 20th century, to be used at whim by the British Empire, which itself now lies smoldering.

The most important dimension to this is the fact that Israelis are being outbred. Their TFRs cannot compete not only with Palestinians, but with the Arab world at large. Palestinians themselves are now upwards of 5 million in population while Israel only has 9 and a half, only ~7M of which are Jews.

But the bigger issue are Israel’s top historical adversaries. Egypt, for instance, had ~20 something million people during the Arab-Israeli wars of the 60s era. It now sports 110M and is set to be over 200M by 2050-2070. In that same time, Israel is projected to only be 13-16M or so. Even Palestinians will vastly outnumber their Israeli occupiers by then. Furthermore, the U.S./UK/Atlanticist Empire which has been the linchpin holding Israel together is now weakening more than ever before, and Israel will not be able to count on their unflagging support in the future, particularly reading the tea leaves of NATO and EU slowly crumbling—neither of which will likely exist past 2030.

Now Egypt has officially joined the BRICS, its tenure set to start on January 1, 2024. Combine that with a growing Turkey, Palestine, and many other states. The fact is, within another decade or two, Israel will stand no chance at “defending itself”, or rather at illegally bombing all of its neighbors. A future Arab-Israeli war could hypothetically pit 300-500M people against a country of 12-15M.

But more specifically Palestinians themselves are simply out-breeding Israelis and would begin to pose a major problem to Israel’s expansionist plans.

This is why the conflict now has eschatological and biblical dimensions—because Israel sees the writing on the wall, their very future is in critical danger. Only by fulfilling prophecy now, establishing a strong state on the totality of the land, can they hope to thwart the natural tide rising against them.

It also explains the uncharacteristic level of open hypocrisy and hysteria being exhibited by the likes of Jordan Peterson, Ben Shapiro, and others in the US media. While I never gave any credence to the idea of Ukraine as “the New Israel”, it increasingly appears there may have been some truth to it after al. But even if it was put down on paper somewhere, that plan appears to be dead in the water courtesy of the Russian special military operation, as is the neoclown plan to move to China. All that appears to leave, at the moment, is the original Zionist program for Greater Israel, updated in the 1990s by the neocons, which suggests that Gaza will be targeted for ethnic cleansing regardless of what the rest of the world thinks or does in response.

World War III began two years ago. I was hoping the Middle East would not be its second front, but it certainly looks like the most probable candidate at the moment. And remember, sooner or later, the Black Rider always throws his human servants from his high horse.

UPDATE: The threatened Gaza invasion is delayed again.

Israel has decided to put off the start of its ground operation against Hamas in Gaza due to adverse weather conditions, the New York Times has claimed. In an article on Saturday the media outlet alleged, citing anonymous Israeli officers, that the “invasion was initially planned for the weekend but was delayed by a few days, at least in part because of weather conditions.” These are so far precluding Israeli pilots and drone operators from providing ground forces with air cover, the NYT explained.

It’s been sunny, with no rain and little wind, all weekend in Israel. The forecast for the coming week is the same. Whatever the real reason for the additional delay, it isn’t the weather.

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Defending the Narrative

Somehow, I doubt the UK police are going to arrest everyone who supports the Palestinians in the UK.

Thousands of pro-Palestine supporters are protesting across major UK cities, as police warned that anyone showing support for Hamas could face arrest.

Crowds holding placards demanding Israel ‘stop bombing Gaza’ have taken to the streets of London, Manchester, Liverpool, Bristol, Glasgow, Edinburgh and Newcastle.

The Met Police said they have deployed more than 1,000 officers to police the London demonstration amid fears of clashes.

There are far more people across the UK and Europe who support the Palestinians than support the Greater Israel project that requires either the ethnic cleansing or the genocide of millions of Arabs. It’s much more balanced in the US, of course, partly because Israeli citizens make up a significant proportion of the government and media there, but more because tens of millions of Christian Boomers believe they’ll be raptured straight to Heaven so long as they fly Israeli flags in their sanctuaries.

Anyhow, the IDF appears to be serious about beginning the ethnic cleansing of the northern part of Gaza and the US is engaging in a minor show of force in order to sufficiently intimidate Iran into staying out of the conflict. But there are so many narratives and so many possible outcomes involved here that it’s impossible at this point to say what is real and what is not, much less how the whole situation is going to play out over time.

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Too Soon?

I think we can safely conclude that the USA will be abandoning Ukraine to its fate now that the media is reporting the horrific news that six million Israeli infants have been holocausted in their incubators by Hamas. The only real question is if it will be a false flag or a green flag that will be utilized in justifying a US attack on Iran.

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