Tag: war

The Artillery Dilemma

It’s obvious to any rational observer that NATO is losing the war in Ukraine, and is losing it badly. And by badly, I mean in terms that exceed Arabs vs IDF and are beginning to approach British regulars vs Zulus. But it was always perfectly clear to everyone who understood the nature of modern land war that the US military never had any chance whatsoever of winning either a direct or a proxy war against the Russians in Ukraine.

Just as the coming naval war with China will depend almost entirely upon shipbuilding capacity to replace the ships on both sides that are inevitably sunk, the war in Ukraine depends upon the production of artillery shells. Consider the following four points.

  1. Artillery is the king of the battlefield again, accounting for 85 percent of the casualties in Ukraine.
  2. One 155mm round made in the USA by USA contractors costs 5,500 dollars, while a 152mm round made in Russia costs 600 dollars.
  3. One 152mm made in North Korea probably costs less than 60 dollars. The Russians just bought 10 million of them, and due to their oil production, can afford to buy as many shells as the North Koreans can make.
  4. Outsourcing ammunition production to China is not exactly an option these days.

Quod erat demonstrandum. Apparently this new shell-supply arrangement is very upsetting to the South Koreans. Or rather, to their puppet masters in the US who are speaking through them. Only the USA is permitted to have allies, right?

SEOUL, Sept 19 (Reuters) – South Korea summoned Russia’s ambassador to warn Moscow against any military cooperation with North Korea on Tuesday after last week’s summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and President Vladimir Putin raised concerns about a possible arms deal. First Vice Foreign Minister Chang Ho-jin summoned Russia’s ambassador in Seoul to urge “Russia to immediately halt any moves to expand military cooperation with North Korea and to abide by (UN) Security Council Resolutions,” South Korea’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

No doubt the Russians will be duly chastened and refrain from further military cooperation with the North Koreans. In the meantime, and in not-unrelated news, Poland is out of the Ukrainian arms business.

“Poland will no longer arm Ukraine to focus on its own defense,” Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced just hours after Warsaw summoned Ukraine’s ambassador related to a fresh war of words and spat over blocked grain, according to the AFP. Warsaw has throughout more than a year-and-a-half of the Ukraine-Russia war been Kiev’s staunchest and most outspoken supporter.

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Russia Unlocks Allies

I always thought it was strange that in all the mainstream analyses of the NATO-Russian war in Ukraine, the possibility that Russia could match and exceed Ukraine’s foreign equipment supply line by purchasing Chinese, Iranian, Turkish, and North Korean armaments was never taken into account. Now, a new deal between Russia and North Korea makes it clear that they should have been.

The most significant rumor from the North Korean parleys is that Russia has possibly made deals to obtain over 10 million 122mm and 152mm artillery shells from North Korea. If even remotely true, it represents a significant number that represents upwards of 1-3 years’ worth of shell useage, depending on intensity. Firing 30k shells a day equals just over 10M per year.

Such a massive shell boost—if true—could give Russia enough to comfortably launch a massive offensive in the future without worrying about dipping into emergency reserve. Recall what I said many times before: one weakness is that Russia always has to maintain a large reserve stock of shells for the contingency that NATO happens to launch some sort of sneak attack, and full scale war breaks out. That means Russia could have several million shells as an emergency reserve it doctrinally cannot touch.

For what it’s worth, SBU head Budanov, by the way, said that Russia has already begun receiving the shipments.

So, not only can Russia exceed the total manufacturing capacity of the USA and Europe itself, but it can multiply its own resources by more than a factor of 2 by turning to its allies for additional support.

The important question here is why Russia feels the need to significantly expand its ammunition supply when it is a) winning the war and b) successfully increasing its own domestic manufacturing capabilities. An offensive is one possibility. But the attempt by the USA to open fronts on Russia’s borders in Armenia and Georgia should not be discounted.

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The True Goal of the WereWest

Simplicius answers questions about the NATO-Russian war in Ukraine:

Many people are wondering where is this all leading? Surely the West must know Ukraine stands no real chance of “winning” in any appreciable way, whether we define victory as completely destroying the Russian army or recapturing all the borders back to pre-2022 or even pre-1991 (Crimea).

I believe they do know this. Thus the ultimate goal is not to win kinetically or militarily, but rather to stretch out the conflict for as long as possible in order to create time and space for them to work the more subversive, under the surface war against the Russian public, elites, government, etc. In short, they want to increase the pressure on Russia’s political structures to maximize societal tension and eventually bring about some sort of political turmoil. A coup/maidan-style scenario would of course be ideal for them, even if it’s unlikely.

This is what economic sanctions were all about, as well. Not to mention the blocking of SWIFT, the destruction of Russian culture and repressions against their citizens all over the world—whether it’s bans from Olympics and other international competitions (chess, etc.), or restrictions like the ones just announced, where Russian cars are being banned from entering Europe, Russian people humiliated by customs inspections, etc.

All of this is meant to generate dissatisfaction and most importantly societal fatigue, such that the people will have “had enough” and begin to agitate against Putin and the elites. The Russian presidential election is coming up in March 2024. One ideal scenario for Western planners would have been for people to have gotten so fed up that they oust Putin by choosing a new candidate who promises to “bring an end to the pointless war, and restore Russia’s cherished economic relationships with the West.”

The problem is, all the sanctions failed, all the repressions and humiliations have only unified the Russian people with even more solidarity. New poll numbers just this week show Putin’s approval rating still sky high at 77% while new economic numbers show Russia again making record profits as oil prices have recently gone up, not to mention Russia began decreasing its ‘discounts’ to India and others.

So that was the true goal of the West—to make the war last long enough for them to demoralize Russian society into overthrowing or voting out Putin. Though it’s clearly failed, they likely believe that given enough time it can still succeed eventually, so they will probably keep trying.

When all Clown World has is a hammer, they have to assume the problem is a nail.

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The US Will Lose the Next War

The US military of 2023 is not the US military of 1943. More to the point, the US military production infrastructure of 2023 is not the US military production infrastructure of 1939. The media is finally beginning to figure this out in the aftermath of Russia’s comprehensive defeat of NATO’s proxy army in Ukraine.

Our country could very well lose a large-scale war for lack of weapons and ammunition—but not because of aid to Ukraine. In a major conflict, the U.S. would run out of munitions in a few weeks, and in less than a week for some crucial categories. The quantity of weapons we are providing Ukraine is marginal compared with necessary weapons that we have not stocked… Nor can we rely on our allies to supply themselves or engineer a lend-lease program to send us weapons if we should be fighting but they are not. For instance, even before it began sending weapons to Ukraine, the British military was so poorly stocked that in a major war, it would have run out of ammunition in a week.

In 1942, Admiral Chester Nimitz fought on the Midway Islands with only three aircraft carriers at his disposal. Less than three years later, he commenced operations against the Marianas with 15 new, larger, and faster carriers to feed into the fight. China has built a defense industry capable of such rapid production—but today, the United States couldn’t pull it off.

No, the US Navy will lose an attrition war with China, even if it wins an initial battle or two. The situation is actually worse than the situation that Japan faced in 1941. The neoclowns thought there would be no need for peer-level warfare because history had ended in favor of liberal democracy, and everyone knows that nation-states that harbor McDonalds never go to war with each other. Hence their obsession with turning every Main Street from Albania to Vietnam into a clone of a mall circa 1989.

But both the Chinese and the Russians have been gearing up for full-scale conflict with the US military for more than 20 years. And they’re just about ready, if the recent decision to sanction two of the five US corporations still producing military vehicles is any guide.

China Daily: Lately the US has provided advanced weaponry to China’s Taiwan region through arms sales, military assistance and loans. China’s foreign ministry spokesperson said earlier that China would take strong measures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. I wonder if you have anything new on that?

Mao Ning: In disregard of China’s firm opposition, the US government deliberately supplies weapons to China’s Taiwan region. This seriously violates the one-China principle and the stipulations of the three China-US joint communiqués, contravenes international law and basic norms governing international relations, and undermines China’s sovereignty and security interests. The US is going further down the wrong and dangerous path of arming Taiwan.

Lockheed Martin Corporation, St. Louis, MO directly participated in the US arms sale to Taiwan announced on August 24 as the principal contractor. Northrop Grumman participated in several US arms sales to Taiwan. In accordance with the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law of the People’s Republic of China, China decides to impose sanctions on these two above-mentioned US defense corporations.

Let me stress, the Chinese government never wavers in its resolve of safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity. We call on the US to earnestly abide by the one-China principle and the stipulations of the three China-US joint communiqués, stop arms sales to Taiwan, stop military collusion with Taiwan, and stop arming Taiwan, otherwise it will be met with China’s resolute response.

Even though it should, the US will not preemptively surrender on the issue of Taiwan. This means that war is coming to the West, probably sooner than most people expect. And it isn’t going to end well, because the rulers of the West are not Western in any way, nor do they care in the least for the people of the West over whom they presently rule.

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A Decade of War

Germany is prepared to support Ukraine through 2032, even if that means fighting to the very last Ukrainian.

Germany is not daunted by the prospect of a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and will back Kiev for the next decade, Brigadier General Christian Freuding has said. He added that Berlin is seeking to ensure that Ukraine retakes all the territory within its 1991 borders.

Appearing at the Yalta European Strategy (YES) forum on Sunday, Freuding was asked whether Germany was prepared to support Ukraine if the hostilities with Russia ended up becoming a “long war” spanning several more years. The German military official replied by saying it was unrealistic to expect the conflict to end in the near future.

Freuding went on to claim that “we’ve got the support of our parliament… for our military support for our Ukrainian friends up to the year 2032.”

At the current rate of economic contraction and casualties, another nine years of proxy war with Russia will see Germany’s economy further devastated and virtually every Ukrainian male between the ages of 15 and 70 dead. Especially when Russia is quite clearly prepared for an extended war against NATO and the USA.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday indicated he was bracing for a long war in Ukraine, saying that Kyiv could use any ceasefire to rearm and that Washington would continue to see Russia as an enemy no matter who won the 2024 U.S. election.

Speaking for several hours at an economic forum in Russia’s Pacific port city of Vladivostok, Putin said Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russian forces had so far failed and the Ukrainian army had sustained heavy losses of 71,000 men in the attacks. Only when Ukraine was exhausted when it came to men, equipment and ammunition would it talk peace, he said in reply to questions from a Russian television presenter acting as a moderator.

Russia controls about 18% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea which it annexed in 2014, and a swathe of eastern and southern Ukraine which it seized after invading Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year in what it called a special military operation.

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Desperately Seeking Allies

The US appears to have made at least a modest amount of headway in signing up Vietnam for its Asian NATO after Biden’s recent visit:

Vietnam and the US have agreed to dramatically upgrade their bilateral relations and strengthen defense cooperation, while hailing several major deals worth billions of dollars. The announcement comes amid strained relations between both Hanoi and Washington with China.

In a statement released on Monday following a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Vietnamese leader Nguyen Phu Trong, the White House said that the two countries elevated their relations to ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ status, the highest tier in Hanoi’s hierarchy of bilateral ties, “for the purposes of peace, cooperation, and sustainable development.”

On security, the US and Vietnamese leaders welcomed “further cooperation in defense industry and defense trade in accordance with each side’s conditions,” according to the statement. In addition, the US said that it “is committed to continuing to assist Vietnam to develop its self-reliant defense capabilities.”

Vietnam is more than happy to acquire some outside assistance, and certainly, the Vietnamese diaspora in the USA makes the rapprochement easier in some ways. However, there is no way that the Vietnamese are going to sign themselves up as a Ukrainian-style proxy army in service to the West.

Also, it is the Vietnamese, and not the Chinese, that the other Asian nations have historically feared. As Lew Kwan Yew described it, they are regarded as “the Prussians of Asia” and fundamentally more warlike and aggressive than their neighbors. China, for all its power and population, is generally not feared because the Middle Kingdom has historically been uninterested in anything outside its borders. Even the limited Chinese invasion of Vietnamese-occupied Cambodia in the 1970s was instigated at the repeated request of the other Asian nations, led by Singapore.

The Chinese are not particularly concerned, but neither are they confused about Washington’s intentions.

“Let’s be honest, if there were no China-US tensions, Washington wouldn’t be so interested and have such strong intentions of upgrading its ties with Vietnam to this level,” Lü Xiang, a US studies research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Monday.

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A UATV Offer

It’s become clear that a lot of readers are very interested in contemplating what is likely to come next in WWIII. As a wargamer and game developer, it’s also of particular interest to me.

Here’s the deal. If there are 10 new Premium subscriptions or 25 new Basic subscriptions in the next 24 hours, I will broadcast a supersized Darkstream dedicated to reviewing in detail the 165-page report on the CSIS summary of the 24 US vs China wargames conducted in January, entitled The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan.

By the way, there are now 5,463 videos available on UATV, with 3-6 more being added every single day. The duplicate set of servers has already been installed at the European data center and is expected to go operational before the end of the month.

UPDATE: Apparently there is considerable interest in WWIII. The 24 hours aren’t even close to being up and BOTH targets were blown away. So it’s on. I’m up to page 30 already, and I’m also working on seeing if I can obtain the rules of the wargame. They’re not necessary for the detailed analysis as I should be able to glean their assumptions from the results, but I like to read wargame rules.

Also, in order to express my appreciation for the high degree of interest indicated and support provided, I’m going to add a second review of the CNAS wargame conducted in June 2022.

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This is WWIII

Even the NATO forces are openly admitting it now.

The head of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council has claimed a third world war is already underway, with the Moscow-Kiev conflict pulling in countries far beyond the region. Speaking at the Kiev Security Forum on Tuesday, Aleksey Danilov argued that NATO needs Ukraine as a member, as global turbulence is set to continue. “We’re going to strengthen the alliance,” he insisted.

“If somebody thinks that World War III hasn’t started then it’s a huge mistake. It has already begun. It had been underway in a hybrid period for some time and has now entered an active phase,” he said.

Sitting on stage beside former CIA Director General David Petraeus, Danilov said that “if somebody thinks that it [the conflict in Ukraine] is about settling the scores between Kiev and Moscow then it’s a mistake. Things are much more complicated.”

He’s not wrong. I pointed this out months ago. This was never about Putin, his ego, or the revival of the Soviet Union. Don’t forget that WWII started with the Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1931, seven years before the Austrian Anschluss and ten years before the USA got openly involved. Even though we didn’t realize it until 2022, WWIII began in 2014 with the Maiden Coup in Ukraine, and it won’t be surprising if, ten years later, the US military gets openly involved in 2024.

The African front has already been opened. The Asian front will open soon, probably next year. The only serious question that remains to be answered is if there will be an American front as well.

UPDATE: Speaking of the African Front.

The crumbling house of French colonialism faces another blow as Chad demands the withdrawal of French troops from the country. This push gained momentum after the unfortunate killing of a local resident by French soldiers, sparking protests against the French colonial presence.

Ironically, France had contemplated pulling its colonial troops out of Niger and into Chad in response to demands for a definitive withdrawal date from the Niger military. Now, it seems they barely had time to leave Niger before facing expulsion from Chad. This follows previous expulsions of the French from the Central African Republic, Mali, and Burkina Faso, with Niger, Gabon, and Chad lining up as potential next exits.

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Let Experience Be Silent

When more relevant information gainsays its conclusions. Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former Commanding Officer of the 1st Royal Tank Regiment, was certain that the British wunderpanzers were going to wreak havoc on the Russian lines back in June.

As a former tank commander, I can say one thing for certain: Putin’s demoralised conscripts are utterly unprepared for the shock action now hitting their lines. Ukrainian armoured formations are beginning to meet Russian forces in battle, and they are going to pulverise Russia’s defensive lines. I am confident for one simple reason: Ukraine will follow the Western ideology of manoeuvre warfare in a combined arms context, while the Russians will follow Soviet doctrine, relying on attrition and numbers. The Russians will find that the armour of Western tanks is far more resilient than flesh and bone, they will die in great numbers, and they will lose.

British-made tanks are about to sweep Putin’s conscripts aside, THE TELEGRAPH, 9 June 2023

Yeah, so, about that…

It turns out that attrition, numbers, and artillery trump propaganda and manoeuvre warfare. And apparently, the British are even more delusional about their tanks than they are about their chances of winning the World Cup. But like the World Cup, the 28 Challenger 2 tanks sent to Ukraine will not be coming home.

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Nigeria May Be Next

Nigeria is the USA’s Great Black Hope in Africa. It provides the greater part of the ECOWAS troops that are supposed to be invading Niger in response to the anti-Western coup there, and it is the most formidable true African military force, being rated ahead of both Sweden and Iraq in the 2023 global military rankings.

(I don’t count either Egypt or South Africa as a proper African military, for reasons that should be obvious.)

However, it’s pretty obvious that something is going on inside Nigeria, and I suspect that at least an attempted military coup there is in the offing.

A press release published by Presidential Adviser Ajuri Ngelale on Saturday said that “President Bola Tinubu has directed the recall of all career and non-career ambassadors from their duty posts worldwide” with immediate effect. According to the document, the decision was made as a result of a “careful study of the present state of affairs at Nigerian Consulate Offices and Embassies worldwide.” The stated aim of the measure is to ensure that Abuja’s diplomatic missions deliver “world-class efficiency and quality.”

Tinubu, who assumed office in late May this year, has since replaced Nigeria’s defense chief, along with the heads of the army, navy, and air force. In June, the president also dissolved the boards of federal government institutions, agencies, and state-owned enterprises.

Nigeria suspends almost all diplomatic missions, RUSSIA TODAY, 3 September 2023

It’s pretty clear that Russia and China are working quietly to establish a number of new tertiary fronts that methodically drain Western military resources. But whereas removing Niger from the colonial collection primarily weakened France, the removal of Nigeria would essentially secure the elimination of Western influence from the entire continent.

The West can’t afford to lose Nigeria, which it is relying upon to keep the other African states in line. Which is why I expect Nigeria to be the central point of conflict of WWIII’s African front.

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